Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

NYC Trader  

View NYC Trader's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    Of course it is... it's like saying that Daimler is losing market share in the auto market because they're making less cars than Honda IF Honda was giving away its cars for free. Segregate the segments if you want to be taken seriously. They're appealing to 2 very different markets.
    Nov 18, 2013. 03:05 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rumored iPhablets Expected In 2014 Will Not Save Apple's Bacon [View article]
    This author is notorious for making that sneaky argument that Apple is supposedly losing some sort of market share, but read why this is a lousy view to depend on if you're an investor. I wrote about it in this SA article in the Competition section:

    http://bit.ly/1f95XUG

    Another argument I made to build on the one from above is that Apple will obviously have less market share than Android as they are appealing to the premium market. Blair's dream is for Apple to sell their products at a loss so he can cash out his puts. LOL.

    But for real investors, these are crooked arguments based on crooked information and is basically comparing 2 companies with completely different strategies. Michael Blair is really good at making comparisons like that. Michael, is Ford stealing Apple's market share as well?
    Nov 18, 2013. 02:54 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    I see what you're saying... but my whole argument is that they're priced inefficiently and the buybacks will just make them more efficiently priced. Here's what I said in the end:

    "As Apple is priced extremely inefficiently and well below peers, an aggressive repurchasing program would not only allow Apple to invest in itself by purchasing its own shares, but also silence the bears as it would take an enormous chunk of Apple out of the market."

    When the stock is no longer cheap, I would hope they stop buying back and save their cash for something more useful. There's definitely a point where repurchasing makes NO sense. Like if I were Tesla right now, I would not do buybacks.
    Nov 16, 2013. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    I have the stock going to 588 by 2014 (+12%) and eventually going to 893 per share. Almost 10% annual growth. I don't think it's realistic to have stock price going up by more than that, but if it does, good for the shareholders... Apple wont have to buy back shares. I was just showing what happens if it doesn't. Buying back shares will force the price up. That's what I was trying to show.
    Nov 15, 2013. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    share price is a function of my market cap assumptions. my only point was that no matter how you look at it, if they can buy back shares with their cash + debt, they should... it will unlock enormous value for shareholders
    Nov 15, 2013. 05:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bitcoin For Real? Macroeconomic Considerations For An Alternative Currency [View article]
    a. I took your advice and here's what it says - in the US "Congress has specified that Federal Reserve Banks must hold collateral equal in value to the Federal Reserve notes that the Federal Reserve Bank puts in to circulation. This collateral is chiefly held in the form of U.S. Treasury, federal agency, and government-sponsored enterprise securities."

    Notice how it says COLLATERAL.

    b. technically you are right. you're supposed to report your bitcoin profits as bartering income in your form 1040 schedule c. If you can find one person who's done it, beer's on me. ill send you over the equivalent of a fraction of a bitcoin.

    c. i agree with you that bitcoin is set by supply and demand - but demand is dictated by trade of goods and services. i still maintain that nobody is going to sell you a house for your mathematical problem.

    this is a bubble and it will burst like all other bubbles. all in due time.
    Nov 15, 2013. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    James, Apple has denied doing the following in a hearing in the past, but I wouldn't be surprised if they do a variation of this:

    http://nyti.ms/HXBOtJ

    Also, they hold 106 billion in longer term marketable securities. Why? Proportionally it's a lot more than any other corporation. I just think there is more to this than we know and just saying "they can't do it" isn't really true.
    Nov 15, 2013. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    Very very good point. Thanks. Certainly a great argument.
    Nov 15, 2013. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    But they do. I've already responded with one scenario above. What is wrong with the above scenario? It sounds like you're not familiar with basic corporate finance.
    Nov 15, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    "That basically makes the whole premise of your article invalid without any sort of reasoning."

    I don't know why I am even responding to this, but FYI just because someone didn't address something in a short article doesn't make their premise invalid.

    When Icahn requests that Apple buy back shares aggressively and doesn't give you a full report of the capital structure they should use to do it, doesn't mean that Icahn's "whole premise of his [request] is invalid"... I assure you he knows a little bit more than you.

    I am not here to give a part time trader a report on how Apple should buy back its shares. I know they can do it and my article's focus was on the action, not the details. If you don't like it, go read another article.
    Nov 15, 2013. 10:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    wrong. it is legal and they're all doing it. you say it's illegal because it destroys your entire argument. frowned upon doesn't mean something is illegal. my article didn't discuss the exact capital structure of buybacks and dividend payments because it is irrelevant. it is possible to do using many different structures.
    here is 1 way they could do it:
    1) use US cash on hand today
    2) use SPE to lend to US at 0% interest - 100% legal - and if you claim it's illegal, why don't you show evidence of such a law that says it's illegal.
    3) issue debt - something that would significantly lower WACC
    That's one scenario. There are many.
    Nov 15, 2013. 10:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    Bill repatriation thing is easy to avoid... set up a spe and lend to yourself. Apple CHina can send cash to a haven and lend to Apple US at 0% interest...
    Nov 15, 2013. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    "Apple doesn't exactly have the cash to do what you are detailing here without one of the two above mentioned items."

    Actually yes there was - in the table. You obviously didn't look at the tables very carefully. Third table shows the exact point you're making:
    Cash/Debt needed to buy back shares and pay dividends.
    1. Cash amount needed is TINY relative to the cash amount held in the US. You're suggesting that they can't repatriate or something. I don't know what yuo mean by "doesn't exactly have the cash to do what you are detailing here"... of course they do.
    2. Sure they could issue more debt if they'd like - cost of debt is cheap, why not?

    Maybe read the article first before criticizing it?
    Nov 15, 2013. 09:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Buy Back Shares Aggressively, Now [View article]
    so then wouldn't they be at risk of being monitored by a regulator? that would be dumb. i hope they don't become a financial institution.
    Nov 15, 2013. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung extends smartphone crown [View news story]
    Apple is likely going to sell 170 million units in 2014 at higher margins than the garbage phone you're promoting. What you're really saying is that Ferrari was keeping up in unit shipments with Honda... NOT BAD!
    Nov 15, 2013. 03:23 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
513 Comments
1,556 Likes