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O. Young Kwon  

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  • The RED Spread: A Market-Breadth Barometer - Can It Predict Black Swans? [View article]
    “[T]he necessary and sufficient condition for a market crash is that a sharp drop of the RED to 40 or lower and a near zero REDS.” (From the forth paragraph from the bottom of this article) The concept and the computation process of the “Diffusion Index” in the article is difficult to grasp for some investors. Therefore, a less cumbersome gauge is devised with a handy database, consisted of the S&P 500, the 10-YT yield, Total Stock Index ETF (SCHX and VTI), and Total Bond Index ETF (SCHZ and BND).

    The new monitor is successful to foresee that the ensuing market movement of the Aug. selloff was not a crash but a sound correction. This instrument yield a necessary condition for a crash (or “Black Swan”), coupling both the S&P and the 10-YT yield or decoupling SCHX (or VTI) and SCHZ (or BND). The sufficient condition is not measured yet because the threshold of the difference between the S&P 500 and the 10-YT yield or SCHX (or VTI) and SCHZ (or BND) is not determined

    To view the result: Link:
    Nov 23, 2015. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Bond Market Stressed, But Not Yet In Crisis [View article]
    It's an excellent timely post on the junk bond issue globally.
    Nov 23, 2015. 05:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Best Year-End Investments? [View article]
    @ Gale Gregory Goodman & Short_pos:

    My comment has nothing to do with the Fed policy at all because I never ever fight the Fed!

    My two points refer to Jeff’s “Industrial production missed explanations” and the market’s wiggles on Nov. 12 and Nov. 13, influenced by the 200 day moving average of the S&P 500 stock index. I don’t know why you see your way on my comment. If any misleading on it? Young
    Nov 23, 2015. 05:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Chance Of A December Rate Hike [View article]
    Are you fighting the Fed ???
    Nov 22, 2015. 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Best Year-End Investments? [View article]
    Jeff – Another excellent and invaluable summary on the current trendless market. Two points: Industrial Production and Technical warning level. For the former, excluding oil-related activities, IPI is very good. For the latter, last several days the chart readers (based on the 200 day moving average) made a “200DMA hiccup." Young
    Nov 22, 2015. 05:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Start Of A Great Market Tumult (Such As Those In Oct., 2014 And Aug., 2015) Can We Foresee The Ensuing Market Development? My Simple Monitor Says Yes. [View instapost]
    “Our daily investing may work out as expected if we establish a reliable market outlook and an intelligent market strategy.” (From “The Read Spread: A Market Breath Barometer – Can It Predict Black Swan?”:
    Nov 20, 2015. 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Message From Falling Commodity Prices? [View article]
    Jeff – Another intelligent and lucid summary on the current market. My strategy of sitting tight and steady is confirmed by your analysis. Thanks. Young.
    Nov 15, 2015. 05:43 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Life-Cycle Hypothesis Of Financial-Asset Allocation, 25 Commission-Free Exchange Traded Funds, & My Lifelong Investing [View instapost]
    Table 5 and Table 4 are updating everyday. To see the post, Link:
    Nov 10, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Put The Brakes On The Breakout? [View article]
    Jeff. Another well-round view and advice on the current confusing market situation == Fed, election, Congress, earnings, global concerns tangled. Your post is an excellent guide. Thank you. Young
    Oct 25, 2015. 05:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Imminent Lift Off? Time For These Dividend ETFs [View article]
    A good posting at this time, but I concern very much about mispricing of SDY in the early minutes in the session of 8/24/2015.
    Oct 6, 2015. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is Behind The Recent Market Volatility? [View article]
    Jeff. Another great summary and prospects on the current tricky markets. Thanks again. Young
    Oct 5, 2015. 06:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Model Of 'Swensen Six' Portfolio Recommends 100% In Cash [View article]
    A 100% either in SHY or Cash? If anyone follows this recommendation, (s)he must regret now. Fortunately, I pulled out a major portion of our retirement savings from Vanguard fifteen months ago. The main reason: Most of my favorite Vanguard ETFs such as BND, VTI, VXF, VWO, VEA are piled up with so much money from institutional investors and hedge funds. Now, I found that Vanguard ETFs are swinging much widely than before due to short-term investing or blogs like this one.

    Where is our retirement money now? TIAA-CREFT Intelligent Variable Annuity allocated in 7 accounts (or portfolios) – no change in the allocation has been made during this market rout. The truth is any well-diversified investment portfolio with or without Vanguard ETFs would outperform a 100% SHY/CASH holding now: In a short term, say, in three months as well as in a long run, say, in one year or in one and a half years.
    Oct 4, 2015. 07:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Has The Fed Assumed A Third Mandate? [View article]
    Hi, Jeff. Markets would overreact either Fed’s liftoff or not. Simply because either bears or bulls act while the counterparts are on the sideline at this time. There are three kinds of animals in markets: Bulls, bears, and bees. Long-term investors with a proper portfolio are bees who are not involved in any bull-bear fight. Bees don’t worry about any market overreaction one way the other. All bees are doing is to collect honey little by little sunny or rainy, everyday. Thank you for your continuous contribution to help others. Young
    Sep 20, 2015. 05:57 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing 2015 To Past Market Bottoms [View article]
    A solid summary on the market bottoms and their recovery patterns. Thanks.
    Sep 18, 2015. 06:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks and bonds in the green as Fed holds policy steady [View news story]
    Thank you for your quick summary after Fed announcement. It’s good to see a calm market response.
    Sep 17, 2015. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment