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O. Young Kwon

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Finding Stocks For The 2014 Homestretch [View article]
    Jeff – It’s surely one of the top-rating articles, agreeing fully your conclusion, reading, “The stage of the business cycle is my blueprint for the months ahead...” The current bull market would go for another five years. Well, it looks like it. Let’s see it. Thanks I believe that a bull never die just on his age. Young
    Sep 7 08:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will Job Growth Sustain The Rally? [View article]
    Jeff – as always a good week preview on the Labor Day. It really depends upon the relationship between the labor market and business cycles.

    “[R]ecessions and recoveries do not affect all aspects of the labor market at the same time…The average workweek in manufacturing was identified as a leading indicator in 1937…Thus unemployment is often a leading indicator at downturns in the business cycles, but a lagging indicator at upturns…Long duration unemployment, therefore, is a lagging indicator. (Geoffrey H. Moore, Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting, National Bureau of Economic Research Studies in Business Cycles No. 24, 1980, pp. 151-152. Dr. Moore was my mentor and colleague at the Center for International Business Cycle during 1980-83.)

    Can you give us any links to see whether the relationship between these labor indicators and business cycles still hold, in particular, in the current upturn. Young
    Sep 1 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The Market Risk From Current Crises [View article]
    Jeff – Another reliable weekly guide. Thanks. I believe this is a time to sit tight and steady during all summer. Young.
    Aug 10 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Jeff – Thanks for your kind comment. Two caveats on my comment: One is that the term “you” was used as “investors” not as “YOU.” Second is that my comment was implicitly based upon a bit longer time horizon (i.e., nine months or longer) than yours in your post. Young
    Aug 5 08:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Will The Fed Experiment End Badly? [View article]
    Jeff – Appreciate your good work every week. One caveat on your distinction between good news and bad news: One of major misdirecting sources in investing is that bad news in the main street are not always bad news in Wall Street, and vice versa.
    For instance, most bad news such as the worst U.S. corporate-tax system, Ukraine crisis, Gaza conflict, inactive Congress, ending the Fed’s easy-money policy, President’s weak leadership, the exodus trend of bond markets might be shadow contributors to lengthen the current business-cycle upswing as well as the current bull market. As a result, if you are bearish simply due to bad news, you are most likely to go in the wrong direction in investing, given the bullish data points. Young
    Aug 3 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Mid-Course Correction? [View article]
    Jeff- - Appreciated another outstanding week preview. Agree with “…the good and the really good.” In a long run (9 months to one year), the market would be “really good,” in an intermediate term (6 to 9 months) it would be "good,” and in a short run (1 to 3 months) it might be corrected somewhat, perhaps up to 5%.

    According to my TANER Momentum list (1 to 3 months), a correction would lead by SPY, VTI, and QQQ, followed by mid-caps (VXF, VTWO) and small-caps (VB and VSS), and finally Dividend Achievers (PFM, VIG, VYM).

    Given a robust U.S. and global growth in 2015, the most dominant factor for a highly bullish stance is a much higher than average level of cash holdings of institutional as well as retail investors. As of July 3th, my cash holding is 28%. Young.
    Jul 6 05:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Economic Fireworks? [View article]
    Jeff – another through and convincible post, reading, “Growth has been sluggish, but steady…Any break from the recent trend of most growth could lead to some early fireworks!” Agree with it, and ready to celebrate it.

    The only concern this time, however, is this: Six categories – U.S. stocks, bonds, commodities, Treasury yields, developed markets, and developing markets – have gained in the first half of the year. This is obviously unusual. The question is how long this too-good-to-be-sustained situation would continue, and in what direction would the markets head to be normal – where one group (stocks and commodities) and another group (bonds and gold) are decoupled. Young
    Jun 30 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Fed Behind The Curve? [View article]
    Jeff – Another excellent post. Don’t know the answer to the headline question, but do know that the Fed is the most reliable source for economic data and forecast. It is because the Fed has more than 400 Economics Ph.D’s who are life-time researchers. Moreover, they are neither politically influenced nor motivated by financial rewards. Do we have any better source? The answer is absolutely no. Young
    Jun 22 03:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Time For A Market Breakout? [View article]
    Jeff – Another great post to let us foot on a solid ground. Agree with your conclusion to point an up breakout, but in a near term, it would be in an up/down. Ready to play both ways. Thanks. Young
    Jun 8 09:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Does The Bond Rally Mean For Stocks? [View article]
    Jeff – another great post as always, but one caveat: ”The Bond Rally”? It’s not, but it’s actually a rebound of oversold bonds, mainly on (a) a great-rotation theme, (b) Fed’ tapering misguided concern, (c) annual portfolio re-balancing, and (d) a mishap of hedge funds to bet on small-growth stocks for last several months. Young
    May 18 05:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Springtime Optimism? [View article]
    Jeff. The current bull market, while 61-month old (starting 2009), is still very much alive. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Fed forecasts the current economic expansion would continue through 2016. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the current recovery through at least 2017. Therefore, we could expect that this bull market would run for another 2-3 years more.

    We could overweight some sectors running late, such as Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Info Technology, and Industrials. Young.
    Apr 21 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Jeff. Yes, we have been drunk with “a volatility cocktail” since the first week of March. We are better to keep up our nerve to see what really has happened in 1Q (Jan. through March) and in 2Q (until April 11, so far). The volatility has remained at a pretty high level both in 1Q and in 2Q, not only at closing but during each session. But one quite different nature of the market is a tech sector sell-off has been going on now, while no single major factor had not been found in !Q. At least six factors – Re-balancing of portfolios of long-term investors (R), Activist Investors (A), Tapering (T), Crimea crisis (C), An On/Off strategies of hedge funds (O), and a harsh Weather (W), or The RATCOW is responsible tor the volatility. In this sense, 2Q is less uncertain than 1Q. As a result, I’m quite cautiously optimistic now.

    A “15% - 20%” down? I don't forecast the level of the market, but I would expect a correction less the 6% this time. Let us see it. Thank you for your valuable post. Young
    Apr 13 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unintentionally Hawkish [View article]
    A good and timely post to advise investors to set a productive investment strategy on rates.
    Mar 20 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Risk/Reward For Stocks? [View article]
    Jeff Totally agree with your conclusion, reading, “Risk and Reward are not negative…” Young.
    Mar 9 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    Jeff. Every week I owe you greatly not to be behind vital up-to-date data/fact, and valuable links fo insightful sources – in particular, in the first two weeks of every month when employment and earnings reports come in. The information available in your weekly post helps me to be able to confirm/adjust my market perspectives; This time I become confident to see a peak of the current sluggish but resilient recovery in 2016. Thanks. Young
    Mar 2 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment