O. Young Kwon

Long only, momentum
O. Young Kwon
Long only, momentum
Contributor since: 2012
Company: The taner momentum investment twits
Jeff -“• The economy shows only modest growth, but not a recession”: This is my pick. A recession would be at least two years away. Thanks always. Young
As a “LONE” (“Long Only and No Edge”) investor, I do feel totally at home with your market perspectives, investment strategies, and conclusion, characterizing (1) being on optimists (or “Bull”) camp, (2) perhaps, portfolio-driven, and (3) most importantly, respecting the Fed.
Since January 7 no trade has been made, being patient to wait for momentum (or “trend”) that my system will reveal. Bless…
Jeff – It’s an excellent investing-classroom illustration from which we can learn (or make sure of) what we have experienced (or observed) with the China-Oil (or “Choil”) market routs in the last and this year. Young
Hi, David:
Your approach driven mainly by your reliable models and solid data is trustful to me. In addition your views seem to be well-anchored by your unbiased judgements. Thanks. Happy New Year!
Young
Hi, Fear & Greed Trader.
Another timely well-rounded summary and views which I couldn’t find any disagreement. Thanks. Happy New Year to You.
Young
Hi, Jeff. Happy New Year to you.
“The Fed sees a stronger economy than do market participants. There will be no hint of a more dovish policy.” It would be my viewpoint. The Fed would go the set-line further because the economic fundamentals may not changed significantly this year.
Young
Exactly five years ago (2010), The TANER Momentum List started to post on SeekingAlpha every day. Originally the List contained two Models: (1) The ETF Model (with 20 ETFs) and (2) The Stock Model (with 40 stocks). The former was for long-term portfolios and the latter was for short-term investments or trading accounts.
Currently The TANER System expands to five (5) Models and another daily post for macro news in the U.S. and the world as:
(3) The Vanguard Model, (4) The Charles Schwab Model, (5) The Sector Rotation Model, and The Daily Market Information (DMI). All Models have 20 components, changing The Stock Model from 40 to 20 components.
The Momentum List is not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities. Rather it is a sort of platform by which investors and traders to utilize the list for their long-term portfolios, short-term investments, trade accounts mostly with ETFs (from four Models) or with stocks (from The Stock Model).The List also can be used for trading options or playing short sales.
The List targets three time horizon: one month, two months, and three months. Long-term investors still would have benefits to determine the allocations and rebalancing. Because the four Models (with 20 ETFs) have equity ETFs and bond ETSs so that the relative strength between equity and bond can be detected daily.
The TANER System is a market monitor using only security prices: the closing prices, the 52-week high prices, and the 52-week low prices. The reason for using these tree prices is that they are most reliable market data which are directly observed, without any compiling process.
All five Models serves as a “poll.” Not elections but markets. They cast all market activities (or “votes”) of market participants – big and small. They reveal “the possible outcome of tomorrow market actions” (or “voting result tomorrow”) with a reliable probability.
The performance and relative strength of all components are thoroughly synthesized by a ”rank algorithm” developed O. Young Kwon, Ph.D (NYU in 1980). Please utilize this list for your successful investments in a long run or a short run.
The posting schedule is:
(1) 7 days (Mon – Sun): The Daily Market Information (DMI)
(2) 5 days (Mon – Fri): The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) ETF Model
(3) Monday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Vanguard Model
(4) Tuesday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Schwab Model
(5) Thursday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Rotation Model
(6) Friday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Stock Model
The TANER Research Project, titled “A Cautious Walk on the Treacherous Exchange-Trade Fund’s Pitfalls,” which has three installments as:
• Part I The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Financial-Asset Allocation, 25 Commission-Free Exchange Traded Funds, & my Lifelong Investing http://bit.ly/1IaXTmo
• Part I: In the Start of a Great Market Tumult (such as those in Oct., 2014 and Aug., 2015) Can We Foresee the Ensuing Market Development? My Simple Monitor Says Yes. http://bit.ly/1MNrfnp
• Part III: The Exchange-Traded Funds Have Their Problems And Their Merits. How To Utilize ETFs By Avoiding Their Pitfalls? http://seekingalpha.co...
Exactly five years ago (2000), The TANER Momentum List started to post on SeekingAlpha every day. Originally the List contained two Models: (1) The ETF Model (with 20 ETFs) and (2) The Stock Model (with 40 stocks). The former was for long-term portfolios and the latter was for short-term investments or trading accounts.
Currently The TANER System expands to five (5) Models and another daily post for macro news in the U.S. and the world as:
(3) The Vanguard Model, (4) The Charles Schwab Model, (5) The Sector Rotation Model, and The Daily Market Information (DMI). All Models have 20 components, changing The Stock Model from 40 to 20 components.
The Momentum List is not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold securities. Rather it is a sort of platform by which investors and traders to utilize the list for their long-term portfolios, short-term investments, trade accounts mostly with ETFs (from four Models) or with stocks (from The Stock Model).The List also can be used for trading options or playing short sales.
The List targets three time horizon: one month, two months, and three months. Long-term investors still would have benefits to determine the allocations and re-balancing. Because the four Models (with 20 ETFs) have equity ETFs and bond ETSs so that the relative strength between equity and bond can be detected daily.
The TANER System is a market monitor using only security prices: the closing prices, the 52-week high prices, and the 52-week low prices. The reason for using these tree prices is that they are most reliable market data which are directly observed, without any compiling process.
All five Models serves as a “poll.” Not elections but markets. They cast all market activities (or “votes”) of market participants – big and small. They reveal “the possible outcome of tomorrow market actions” (or “voting result tomorrow”) with a reliable probability.
The performance and relative strength of all components are thoroughly synthesized by a ”rank algorithm” developed O. Young Kwon, Ph.D (NYU in 1980). Please utilize this list for your successful investments in a long run or a short run.
The posting schedule is:
(1) 7 days (Mon – Sun): The Daily Market Information (DMI)
(2) 5 days (Mon – Fri): The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) ETF Model
(3) Monday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Vanguard Model
(4) Tuesday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Schwab Model
(5) Thursday: The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) Rotation Model
The August-24 market swoon was a really nasty shaker, affecting not only traders and short-term investors but also long-term investors (mostly with their retirement investments) who have well-diversified portfolios.
The incident made the former scared with the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) when they make short-term play, and shook the latter’s confidence on the ETFs which are loaded by their own selections or by recommendations from their advisers or by the “Robo” services.
A thorough examination about the unprecedented market debacle with “band flash rally or plunge” and “mispricing” is summarized in this post as third installment, following previous two installments as:
The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Financial-Asset Allocation, 25 Commission-Free Exchange Traded Funds, & my Lifelong Investing http://bit.ly/1IaXTmo
In the Start of a Great Market Tumult (such as those in Oct., 2014 and Aug., 2015) Can We Foresee the Ensuing Market Development? My Simple Monitor Says Yes. http://bit.ly/1MNrfnp
“A ‘model’ and strategy tends to work much better than opinions” and “Impulsive, emotional reactions can then turn a plan into a disaster.” These two focal points intrigue me to review my investment discretion.
The investment time horizon is less than fifteen years, so in January set up was a dual portfolio:
(1) A long-term portfolio with a TIAA-CREF variable annuity, targeting ten years.
(2) An intermediate-term portfolio with 25 no-commission ETFs at Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.
It is very helpful to see your “model”-oriented approach, analysis, and market outlooks in the various time dimensions. Thank you.
It is absolutely an invaluable “daily” post by which we can grasp what was going on “yesterday,” viewing the unbiased real fact and data points.
In particular, the yesterday (Dec.3) case was clearly an erroneous market failure, impacted by a binary central-bank decision.
Both the equity market and bond market declined: It is an irregular movement which is a necessary condition for a market crash. But the truth was the market was simply totally disrupted by central banks.
As a consequence, a rapid recovery is expected.
It's my great pleasure to find you...learning a lot...thinking a lot...re-adjusting my position timely. Young
Hi Jeff. My bet is “3. Mixed data allows the Fed to hike as planned.” But I am a 95% investor and only a 5% trader. As a result, my investment decision is based upon the assumption that a binary Fed’s monetary-policy decision is given. Thank you for your weekly contribution. Young
“[T]he necessary and sufficient condition for a market crash is that a sharp drop of the RED to 40 or lower and a near zero REDS.” (From the forth paragraph from the bottom of this article) The concept and the computation process of the “Diffusion Index” in the article is difficult to grasp for some investors. Therefore, a less cumbersome gauge is devised with a handy database, consisted of the S&P 500, the 10-YT yield, Total Stock Index ETF (SCHX and VTI), and Total Bond Index ETF (SCHZ and BND).
The new monitor is successful to foresee that the ensuing market movement of the Aug. selloff was not a crash but a sound correction. This instrument yield a necessary condition for a crash (or “Black Swan”), coupling both the S&P and the 10-YT yield or decoupling SCHX (or VTI) and SCHZ (or BND). The sufficient condition is not measured yet because the threshold of the difference between the S&P 500 and the 10-YT yield or SCHX (or VTI) and SCHZ (or BND) is not determined
To view the result: Link: http://bit.ly/1MNrfnp
It's an excellent timely post on the junk bond issue globally.
@ Gale Gregory Goodman & Short_pos:
My comment has nothing to do with the Fed policy at all because I never ever fight the Fed!
My two points refer to Jeff’s “Industrial production missed explanations” and the market’s wiggles on Nov. 12 and Nov. 13, influenced by the 200 day moving average of the S&P 500 stock index. I don’t know why you see your way on my comment. If any misleading on it? Young
Are you fighting the Fed ???
Jeff – Another excellent and invaluable summary on the current trendless market. Two points: Industrial Production and Technical warning level. For the former, excluding oil-related activities, IPI is very good. For the latter, last several days the chart readers (based on the 200 day moving average) made a “200DMA hiccup." Young
“Our daily investing may work out as expected if we establish a reliable market outlook and an intelligent market strategy.” (From “The Read Spread: A Market Breath Barometer – Can It Predict Black Swan?”: http://seekingalpha.co...
Jeff – Another intelligent and lucid summary on the current market. My strategy of sitting tight and steady is confirmed by your analysis. Thanks. Young.
Table 5 and Table 4 are updating everyday. To see the post, Link: http://seekingalpha.co...
Jeff. Another well-round view and advice on the current confusing market situation == Fed, election, Congress, earnings, global concerns tangled. Your post is an excellent guide. Thank you. Young
A good posting at this time, but I concern very much about mispricing of SDY in the early minutes in the session of 8/24/2015.
Jeff. Another great summary and prospects on the current tricky markets. Thanks again. Young
A 100% either in SHY or Cash? If anyone follows this recommendation, (s)he must regret now. Fortunately, I pulled out a major portion of our retirement savings from Vanguard fifteen months ago. The main reason: Most of my favorite Vanguard ETFs such as BND, VTI, VXF, VWO, VEA are piled up with so much money from institutional investors and hedge funds. Now, I found that Vanguard ETFs are swinging much widely than before due to short-term investing or blogs like this one.
Where is our retirement money now? TIAA-CREFT Intelligent Variable Annuity allocated in 7 accounts (or portfolios) – no change in the allocation has been made during this market rout. The truth is any well-diversified investment portfolio with or without Vanguard ETFs would outperform a 100% SHY/CASH holding now: In a short term, say, in three months as well as in a long run, say, in one year or in one and a half years.
Hi, Jeff. Markets would overreact either Fed’s liftoff or not. Simply because either bears or bulls act while the counterparts are on the sideline at this time. There are three kinds of animals in markets: Bulls, bears, and bees. Long-term investors with a proper portfolio are bees who are not involved in any bull-bear fight. Bees don’t worry about any market overreaction one way the other. All bees are doing is to collect honey little by little sunny or rainy, everyday. Thank you for your continuous contribution to help others. Young
A solid summary on the market bottoms and their recovery patterns. Thanks.
Thank you for your quick summary after Fed announcement. It’s good to see a calm market response.
A vital investment advice at this critical moment for TIPS. Thank you.
A vital investment advice at this critical moment for TIPS. Tank you.
An insightful view on TIPS at a right time like now to watch inflation in a longer run. Thanks.
Thanks. Your comment is a near term. In a long run, the perspective inflation affect the economy as well as markets.