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O. Young Kwon

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  • Weighing The Week Ahead: A Volatility Cocktail [View article]
    Jeff. Yes, we have been drunk with “a volatility cocktail” since the first week of March. We are better to keep up our nerve to see what really has happened in 1Q (Jan. through March) and in 2Q (until April 11, so far). The volatility has remained at a pretty high level both in 1Q and in 2Q, not only at closing but during each session. But one quite different nature of the market is a tech sector sell-off has been going on now, while no single major factor had not been found in !Q. At least six factors – Re-balancing of portfolios of long-term investors (R), Activist Investors (A), Tapering (T), Crimea crisis (C), An On/Off strategies of hedge funds (O), and a harsh Weather (W), or The RATCOW is responsible tor the volatility. In this sense, 2Q is less uncertain than 1Q. As a result, I’m quite cautiously optimistic now.

    A “15% - 20%” down? I don't forecast the level of the market, but I would expect a correction less the 6% this time. Let us see it. Thank you for your valuable post. Young
    Apr 13 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Unintentionally Hawkish [View article]
    A good and timely post to advise investors to set a productive investment strategy on rates.
    Mar 20 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: What Is The Risk/Reward For Stocks? [View article]
    Jeff Totally agree with your conclusion, reading, “Risk and Reward are not negative…” Young.
    Mar 9 07:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: More Clarity About Employment? [View article]
    Jeff. Every week I owe you greatly not to be behind vital up-to-date data/fact, and valuable links fo insightful sources – in particular, in the first two weeks of every month when employment and earnings reports come in. The information available in your weekly post helps me to be able to confirm/adjust my market perspectives; This time I become confident to see a peak of the current sluggish but resilient recovery in 2016. Thanks. Young
    Mar 2 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Is The Correction Over? [View article]
    Hello Jeff.

    The investors who just ignored the misleading data, news, and articles about “ a bear market” or “a deep pullback”,” but just focused on the somewhat “shadow” political events such as “”the budget deal” or “the 2014 budget” or “the ‘clean’ debt-ceiling bill pass” deserved a huge gain this time either holding their portfolio or adjusting their portfolio putting more weight on the equity when the market made on a sharp V-shape-selloff-surge movement.

    Young
    Feb 16 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When Good Models Go Bad [View article]
    Hello Jeff.
    An intriguing topic, but not easily found any common ground for most investors. Questions are What kind of Models and For What Markets.
    There are two kinds of models: One is time-series models such as the Fed’s U.S. economy forecasting models. The other ones are cross-section-data models such as stock/sector selection/valuation models. In a relative sense, while any cross-section-data model such as The Value Line Models can keep the main original features over time because they update whole data over time, any time-series model must continue to improve or adjust in order to accommodate any changes of financial systems, products, regulations, or economic policies.
    As far as MACRO-time –series models are concerned, investors cannot adopt any part of the model in question, rather are better just evaluate the OUTPUTs of the model, such as a 2.7% GDP growth rate, and use them for their own analysis. OR, for less sophisticated investors, it would be more beneficial to try to FIND WHAT OTHERS DON’T FIND, no matter how small the piece of information is. For example, a stock to grow steadily, or a simple relationship between two data points, such as an emerging market selloff and the U.S. equity in a near term and in a longer term.
    A starting point in this line would be to read Ken Fisher’s Only Three Questions That Count, in which he recommends some easy way to pursue for more productive investing, defying all myths and fallacies in investing, without sticking with any ligid models or systems.
    Young
    Feb 1 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fight The Fed Factoid [View article]
    Hello Jeff. It’s really well-timed and well-picked topic. “…the change in Fed chair has little to do with stock market perspectives.” Totally agree. Perhaps in case of Summers, it might be, but certainly not with Yellen this time. Last week’s rout of the market seems to be an overdue market correction. More sharp a correction, more healthy the market in my view. If history is a guide, the sellers of last week would be losers as in the end of 2012 with a fiscal cliff. Is this a Fed cliff? Young
    Jan 26 06:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Growth Propel Stocks Higher? [View article]
    Hello Jeff. Stanley Fischer is very good, as seen in his top-rank macroeconomics textbook, MACROECONOMICS with Rudiger Dornbusch, but I would not think he would compete with Yellen in any way. Rather he would assist her to make the global financial system much more stronger. It’s really a huge PLUS in the Fed. Young
    Jan 12 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Perplexity of a Low Beta : The Case of Netflix [View instapost]
    @ Marketer25

    The beta simply indicates how closely any individual security vis-à-vis the total market, not just measures the volatility of the prices of any individual stock as most think. For instance, your stocks are volatile but they happen to move in sync with the also volatile total market mostly, the beta would be low rather than high.

    O. Young Kwon
    Dec 29 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Market Stress Index (MSI) [View instapost]
    @ Ruben12345

    The MSI has been pretty high readings amid multiple uncertainties and worries about (1) budget negotiations (2) the timing and the magnitude of the Fed’s tapering, and (3) some tech IPO booms. Now these factors have become settled down so that the market has rallied through holidays sessions. This trend is likely to continue in the new year with relatively low MSIs. Eye on the so-called January effect.

    O. Young Kwon
    Dec 29 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: The 2013 Review Of What Was Hot And What Was Not [View article]
    Hello Jeff.

    It’s absolutely attractive post. Happy New Year.

    Young
    Dec 22 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dual-Portfolio Strategy With 2 Controls Has Worked Out. Can It Weather Any Looming Storm? [View article]
    Link: http://bit.ly/18oEPg1 for“A Well-Defined Portfolio With Enough Cash Weather Major Storms?” Link:
    Dec 6 05:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dual-Portfolio Strategy With 2 Controls Has Worked Out. Can It Weather Any Looming Storm? [View article]
    @ User 427801

    (1) “There is ZERO diversification” and “diversification is the most spouted term.”

    Disagree with the above quotation because it’s fully diversified at an asset-category level with an equity as a whole and an bond as a whole, which are decoupled most time except a few occasions of highly stressful times so that the correlation is negative.

    On a Mutual and Exchange-Traded Fund level, all funds in a same asset category – equity and bond -- are not well diversified, as you pointed out.

    In this article, downplayed is the role of diversification among mutual funds or ETFs that is your concern, because “since the correlations among securities have been constantly increasing, diversification becomes less promising.” (From my previous article, titled “A Well-Defined Portfolio With Enough Cash Weather Major Storms?”

    In other words, diversification between one asset category (i.e., VTI alone or VTI + VXF+ VEU, together) and the other asset category (i. e., BND alone or BND + TIP, together) is sufficient because each index funds already well diversified and have a negative correlation.

    (2) “a crap bond index”

    Not sure of what this quotation means. In fact, index funds are most efficient low-cost investment vehicles, and bond index funds are one important component in a well-defined portfolio in a long run, even though bonds seem to stand on a bit shaky ground, in general, now amid investors’ expectations of higher interest rates in coming years.

    (3) “why water down your return with large-cap zero growth and international…”

    Disagree with the above quotation because both VTI and VEU are not just a “large-cap zero growth” ETFs. Most of their components are growth stocks.

    O. Young Kwon
    Dec 6 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dual-Portfolio Strategy With 2 Controls Has Worked Out. Can It Weather Any Looming Storm? [View article]
    Dear Investor:

    On Nov. 22, the S&P 500 marked an all-time high, closing above 1,800 for the first time. So did my dual portfolio. Recently the A-A Decision and the C/C Ratio have been deviated significantly form their targets, a 55-45 and a 15%, respectively. They will be adjusted toward their targets soon.

    An aggressive maneuver of these 2 controls increased gains from a recent near-term upswing, which is expected to continue until the first week of December. The Vanguard Mutual Fund Allocation reflected the changes in the 2 controls.

    To view Table 2 and Table 3, Links: ”The Daily A-A Decision & C/C Ratio (DAC)” http://seekingalpha.co...

    O. Young Kwon
    Nov 24 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Costly Investment Themes [View article]
    Hello Jeff. An outstanding post to help investors stay away from some costly fallacies such as historical parallelism, chart trap, Fed-only views, and media-induced market psychology. Thanks. Young
    Nov 20 06:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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924 Comments
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