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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Oct. 24, Friday) (III)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]), were introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/8175519

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Oct. 24, Friday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Oct. 24, Friday based upon Closing Prices on Oct. 23, Thursday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Oct. 24, Friday)

    ETF:T1 (VHT PZA) A1 (XLF BND VTI) E1 (DIA VAW) R1 (BND PHB)

    ETF T2 (PZA PGF) A2 (QQQ XLF) E2 (DIA MDY) R2 (BND PHB).

    ETF T3 (VNQ PGF) A3 (QQQ XLF) E3 (VAW TIP) R3 (DIA VXF).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (XLF DIA) E.TM. 1-2 (PZA BND PHB) E.TM. 1-3 (NYSEARCA:VAW) E.TM. 2-3 (PGF QQQ) E.TM. 1 (VHT VTI) E.TM. 2 (NYSEARCA:MDY) E.TM. 3 (VNQ TIP VXF)

    The Schwab ETF Model (TEM) (Oct. 24, Friday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHZ SCHO) A1 (SPLV SCHX) E1 (SCHP CVY) R1 (FNDA SCHA)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHZ SCRP) A2 (SCHX SCHD) E2 (SCHP SCHE) R2 (SCHA SCHF)

    SCHWAD:T3 (SCHZ SCHO) A3 (SCHX SCHD) E3 (SCHP SCHE) R3 (SCHM SCHA)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHZ SCHX SCHP) SCHWAB 1-3 (SCH0) SCHWAB 2-3 ( SCHWAB 1 SCHD SCHE) (SPLV CVY FNDA) SCHWAB 2 (SCH R SCH F) SCHWAB 2 (SCHMThe TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) (Oct. 23, Thursday)

    VANGUARD T1 (BSV VTV) A1 (BND VIG) E1 (VWO VXUS) R1 (VFH VTWO)

    VANGUARD T2 (BSV VCIT) A2 (VTI VOO) E2 (VFM VWO) R2 (VEA VGK).

    VANGUARD T3 (BSV VCIT) A3 (VOO VTI) E3 (BIV VWO) R2 (VXF VB).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (BSV VTV VWO) VANGUARD 2-3 (VCIT VOO) VANGUARD 1 (BND VIG VXUS VFH VTWO) VANGUARD 2 (VFM VEA VGK) VANGUARD 3 (BIV VXF VB)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Oct. 13, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (SHY XES) A1 (ITM IPE) E1 (MTK KRE) R1 (GLO HYG)

    ROTATION T2 (SHY PCY) A2 (XPH XRT) E2 (IPE GLD) R2 (XSD XOP).

    ROTATION T3 (SHY XES) A3 (IWF IPE) E3 (XRT GLD) R (EEM IWM).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (SHY GLD) R.TM.1-3 (XES IPE) R.TM.2-3 (NYSEARCA:XRT) R.TM.1 (ITM MTK KRE HYG) R.TM.2 (PCY XPH IPE XSD XOP) R.TM.3 (IWF EEM IWM)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (Oct. 14, Tues day)

    STOCK T1 (JWN TMO) A2 (WMT PRGO) E1 (FLS SU) R1 (EDU NUS)

    STOCK T2 (CMG TMO) A2 (FLS WMT) E2 (BIDU AMZN) R2 (EDU DE).

    STOCK T3 (CMG TMO) A3 (FLD ESRX) E3 (FLS SU) R3 (EDU DE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2 -3(TMO EDU) S.TM.1-2 (NYSE:WMT) S.TM.1-3 (FLS SU) S.TM.2-3 (CMG HD DE) S.TM.1 (JWN PRGO NUS) S.TM.2 (BIDU AMZN) S.TM.3 (NASDAQ:ESRX)

    Link: www.seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/1111541-the-taner-data. You can get the names of securities with the ticker symbol in The TEM, The TSM, The TRM, and The TVM...

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Oct 24 5:06 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Oct. 24 2014, Friay)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Oct. 24 2014, Friay)

    Morningstar

    Income-Sectors: These 'Myths' Could Come Back to Haunt You. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Bloomberg

    U.K. Economy Growth Slows as Obstacles to Recovery Mount. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/u-k-ec...

    Wall Street Economists Split on ECB Even Buying Government Bonds. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/wall-street-economists-split-on-ecb-ever-buying-government-bonds.html

    Reuters

    Stress test, Ebola cool global stocks after best week of year. finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-adva...

    Specter of no-inflation world looms over Fed's return to normal http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-usa-fed-inflation-analysis-idUSKCN0ID0AD20141024

    Asia economic growth to languish as China slows: poll. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-economy-poll-asia-idUSKCN0ID0HM20141024

    Market Watch

    U.S. stock futures lower, but pare losses, after N.Y. Ebola news. www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futur...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Oct. 23 2014, Thursday)

    Bloomberg

    ECB Bond Purchases Seen by Traders Exceeding $1 Billion. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/ecb-bo...

    Spanish Unemployment Lowest Since 2011 as Economy Grows. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-23/spanis...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Oct. 22 2014, Wednesday)

    Morningstar

    Lessons From Our Bucket Retirement Portfolio Stress Tests. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bloomberg

    BOE Splits on Rate as Majority Sees Mounting Euro-Area Risk. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-22/boe-sp...

    Reuters

    EU's Juncker pledges investment plan for jobs. www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/22/us-eu...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Oct. 21 2014, Tuesday)

    Bloomberg

    China's GDP Growth Bolsters Case for Stimulus Restraint. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-20/china-...

    Reuters

    Swiss exports rise in Sept., as global demand offsets euro zone slump. www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/21/us-sw...

    Market Watch

    IPhone sales take focus with Apple's earnings results: Live blog re-cap. blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/10/20.../

    Oct 24 5:47 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Mutual Fund Allocations From Oct. 13 Through Oct. 17: A Case Of Our Portfolio

    Our portfolio with Vanguard index mutual funds revealed a few important merits. During October 6 through October 17 our long-term portfolio (70% of the capital) runs smoothly until October 13 (Monday), losing 4.9% from the end of third quarter. Tuesday (Oct. 14) through Friday (Oct. 17), however, prompt and timely adjustments were made, as shown in Table 1..

    Table 1: Exchange of Vanguard Mutual Funds

          
     

    DATE

    FROM

    TO

    DATA

     
      

    BIV (13.6)

    VTI (3.07%)

    Oil Dropped

     
      

    VXF (3.07%

     
      

    BND (7.46%)

     
        
     

    10/14/2014

    BSV (4.1%)

    VUG (1.0)

     
      

    VB (1.0)

     
      

    VDE (2.1)

     
         
     

    10/15/2014

    VTV (3.1%)

    VXUS (3.1%)

    Stocks Plunged

     
     

    VOO (7.3%)

    VXUS (0.8%)

     
     

    VUG (3.3%)

     
     

    VB (3.2)

     
     

    tip (13.2%)

    VTI (1.0%)

     
     

    MMF (12.2%)

     
     

    10/16/2014

    MMF (1.0%)

    VXF (1.0%)

      
     

    10/17/2014

    MMF (2.0%

    VTI (1.0%)

      
     

    VXF (1.0%)

      
          
     

    Note: ETFs is used. Mutual funds of ETFs are allocated. See Table 2 for details.

     

    The adjustment for 4 sessions changed rapidly the A-A Decision as well the C/C Ratio: The A-A Decision from 58:42 to 75:25. The C/C Ration from 0% to 12.1% to 11.1% to 9.0%. The number of mutual funds from 15 to 10.

    Table 2 shows changed in the fund allocations last week. Our Portfolio outperforms S&P 500 by more than 2.5%. The current C/C Ratio, 9%, is somewhat insufficient if the markets will continue to be weak in a couple of months. The two keys - the C/C Ration for a near term and the A-A Decision in a short term - together with a guide of the TANER System can shield any shock from a market shakeout in the future.

    Table 3: Vanguard Mutual Fund Allocation.

           

    Vanguard Mutual Fund

    DATE

    SYMBOL

    ETF

    10/13/2014

    10/14/2014

    10/15/2014

    10/16/2014

    10/17/2014

    VMMXX

    *

    0.0%

    0.0%

    12.0%

    11.1%

    9.0%

    VTSAX

    VTI

    8.1%

    11.2%

    12.2%

    12.2%

    13.2%

    VEXAX

    VXF

    3.9%

    11.3%

    11.2%

    12.3%

    13.3%

    AFIAX

    VOO

    7.2%

    7.2%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VIGAX

    VUG

    5.2%

    6.2%

    9.5%

    9.5%

    9.5%

    VSMAX

    VB

    4.7%

    5.7%

    9.1%

    9.2%

    9.1%

    VVIAX

    VTV

    3.3%

    3.1%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VGELX

    VDE

    8.5%

    10.5%

    10.4%

    10.4%

    10.5%

    VDADX

    VIG

    10.0%

    10.1%

    10.0%

    10.0%

    10.0%

    VTIAX

    VXUS

    6.3%

    5.7%

    9.5%

    9.4%

    9.5%

    VTLX

    BND

    6.3%

    9.6%

    9.7%

    9.6%

    9.6%

    VTABX

    BNDX

    6.3%

    6.3%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    6.3%

    VAIPX

    (NYSEARCA:TIP)

    13.1%

    13.1%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VBILX

    BIV

    13.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VBIRX

    BSV

    4.1%

    0.0%

    6.4%

    6.3%

    0.0%

    TOTAL

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

           

    Note 1: The Vanguard Mutual Fund

    SYMBOL

    ETF

    NAME

    VMMXX

    *

    Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

    VTSAX

    VTI

    Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund

    VEXAX

    VXF

    Vanguard Extended Stock Market Fund

    AFIAX

    VOO

    Vanguard S&P 500 Fund

    VIGAX

    VUG

    Vanguard Growth Fund

    VSMAX

    VB

    Vanguard Small-Cap Fund

    VVIAX

    VTV

    Vanguard Value Fund

    VGELX

    VDE

    Vanguard Energy Fund

    VDADX

    VIG

    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund

    VTIAX

    VXUS

    Vanguard International Stock Fund

    VTLX

    BND

    Vanguard Total Bond Fund

    VTABX

    BNDX

    Vanguard World Except U.S. Stock Fund

    VAIPX

    (TIP)

    Vanguard Treasury Inflation Protection Securities Fund

    VBILX

    BIV

    Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Fund

    VBIRX

    BSV

    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Fund

           

    Note 2: TIP is not Vanguard ETF. It is iShares TIPS Bond ETF.

    Oct 21 11:02 AM | Link | Comment!
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