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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (July 30, 2015 Thursday) (I)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (July 30, 2015 Thursday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on July 30, 2015 Thursday, based upon Closing Prices on July 29, 2015 Wednesday)

    The ETF Model (NYSE:ETM) July 30, 2015 Thursday)

    ETF T1 (VHT XLF) A1 (SPY QQQ) E1 (PHB VAW) R1 (VNQ PZA)

    ETF T2 (VXF MDY) A2 (VHT QQQ) E2 (VPU VAW) R2 (VNQ BND).

    ETF T3 (MDY PFM) A3 (QQQ PGF) E3 (VPU VAW) R3 (TIP BND).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    ETF1-2-3 (QQQ VAW) ETF1-2 (VHT VNQ) ETF2-3 (MDY VPU BND) ETF1 (XLF SPY PHB PZA) ETF2 (NYSEARCA:VXF) ETF3 (PFM PGF TIP)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) July 29, 2015 Wednesday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VXF VB) A1 (VFH VEA) E1 (BSV VWO) R1 (BNDX BND)

    VANGUARD T2 (VUG VOO) A2 (VFH VTWO) E2 (VEA VXUS) R2 (BSV BND).

    VANGUARD T3 (VOO VTV) A3 (VFH VTWO) E3 (VEA VWO) R2 (BSV BIV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (VFH VEA BSV) VANGUARD1-2 (NYSEARCA:BND) VANGUARD1-3 (NYSEARCA:VWO) VANGUARD2-3 (VOO VTWO) VANGUARD 1 (VXF VB BNDX) VANGUARD 2 (VUG VXUS) VANGUARD 3 (VTV BIV)

    The Schwab ETF Model (July 27, 2015 Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHM SCHA) A1 (SCHX SCHB) E1 (SCHF SCHE) R1 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHM SCHA) A2 (SPLV SCHB) E2 (SCHF FNDF) R2 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SCHWAD:T3 (RYF RSP) A3 (SCHX SCHB) E3 (SCHF FNDF) R3 (SCHC SCHZ)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHB SCHF SCHZ) SCHWAB 1-2 (SCHM SCHA SCHP) SCHWAB 1-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHX) SCHWAB 2-3 (NYSEARCA:FNDF) SCHWAB 1 (NYSEARCA:SCHE) SCHWAB 2 (NYSEARCA:SPLV) SCHWAB 3 (RYF RSP SCHC)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (July 27, 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (IYH XBI) A1 (KIE MTK) E1 (XSD XOP) R1 (EDV ITM)

    ROTATION T2 (IYH MTK) A2 (XBI KBE) E2 (PSK EDV) R2 (XSD ELD).

    ROTATION T3 (IYH KIE) A3 (XBI XSD) E3 (ITM LQD) R (SHY SLV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (IYH XBI XSD) R.TM.1-2 (MTK EDV) R.TM.1-3 (KIE ITM) R.TM.1 (NYSEARCA:XOP) R.TM.2 (KBE PSK ELD) R.TM.3 (LQD SHY SLV)

    The TANER Stock Model (July 27, 2015 Monday)

    STOCK T1 (MA ESRX) A2 (AMZN NVR) E1 (AET PH) R1 (JNJ WMT)

    STOCK T2 (ESRX AET) A2 (AMZN JWN) E2 (BA PH) R2 (BIDU KSU).

    STOCK T3 (ESRX YUM) A3 (AMZN AET) E3 (BA PH) R3 (FDX CAT).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (ESRX AMZN AET PH) S.TM 2-3 (NYSE:BA) S.TM 1 (MA NVR JNJ WMT) S.TM.2 (JWN BIDU KSU) S.TM.3 (YUM FDX CAT)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Jul 30 8:08 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 30, 2015, Thursday

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 30, 2015, Thursday

    Bloomberg

    Cnina's Great Short Seller Suddenly Turns Bullish. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-29/china-s-hated-short-seller-is-now-a-bull-predicting-huge-rally

    Reuters

    Asin shares, doller up on Fed's optimism; earnings focus. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/30/us-markets-global-idUSKCN0Q402720150730

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 29, 2015, Wednesday

    Bloomberg

    Surge in Deals May Be Summertime Record. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/dealmaking-surge-in-july-puts-summer-of-2015-on-track-for-record

    Reuters

    Fed expected to push ahead with rate hike plan. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/29/us-us...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 28, 2015, Tuesday

    Bloomberg

    Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Climbed at Slower Pace in May. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-28/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-rose-at-slower-pace-in-may

    Analyst Who Predicted Bottom for Shanghai Stocks Sees Further 14% Plunge. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-27/demark-sees-14-china-plunge-as-stocks-mirror-1929-u-s-crash

    Reuters

    Stocks rebound, shrugging off volatile and weak China. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/28/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 27, 2015, Monday

    Yahoo

    Investors eye China, durable goods; Teva deal; Hollywood's new baker. finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-eye-chi...

    Bloomberg

    China Rout Leads Global Stocks Lower as Dollar, Italy Bonds Drop. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-26/asian-futures-point-to-more-losses-as-gold-to-oil-extend-drops

    Reuters

    China stocks tumble, suffer biggest one-day loss in eight years. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 26, 2015, Sunday

    Marketwatch

    Fed's accidental Web posting of confidential forecasts is another black eye. www.marketwatch.com/story/giving-itself-...

    Reuters

    Debt conundrum to keep Greek banks in months-long freeze. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/26/us-eu...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 25, 2015, Saturday

    Bloomberg

    Earnings Rally Fizzles Out as Dow Posts Worst Week Since January. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-...

    Reuters

    Wall Street slides to end rough week on macro, earnings concerns. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/25/us-ma...

    Jul 30 5:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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