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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    The major clients of Seekingalpha - active mutual and hedge fund managers, the managed (or smart) index (exchange traded) fund managers and other fee-seeking managers - do not welcome this article because most of them cannot beat the traditional passive bench mark indexes.

    One of the fans of this article, however, must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 21, 2014, Friday)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 21, 2014, Friday)

    Market Watch

    Draghi signals ECB ready to step up asset-buying. www.marketwatch.com/story/draghi-signals...

    Bloomberg

    Dragi Says ECB Must Raise Inflation as Fast as Possible. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-21/draghi...

    Morningstar

    How to Handle 5 Risks in the Market Today. www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.as...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 20, 2014, Thursday)

    Bloomberg

    U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise More Than Forecast. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/leadin...

    U.K. Retails Jump 0.8% as Prices Fall Most in 12 Years. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-20/u-k-re...

    Reuters

    Fed focused on sunny side, downplayed global woes in October. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/20/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0J325J20141120

    Market Watch

    Eurozone PMI falls to 16-month low in November. www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-pmi-f...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 19, 2014, Wednesday)

    Bloomberg

    BOE Votes 7-2 as Some MPC Majority Raise Inflation Concerns. /news/2014-11-19/boe-votes-7-2-as-some-mpc-majority-raise-inflation-concerns-1-.html

    Kuroda Wins Wider Majority, Says Inflation May Dip Below 1 %. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/boj-keeps-stimulus-unchanged-after-japan-falls-into-recession.html

    Reuters

    U.S. producer inflation up, but underlying trend muted. www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/us-ec...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 18, 2014, Tuesday)

    Market Watch

    A turning point for the S&P? www.marketwatch.com/story/decision-makin...

    Morningstar

    What Risks Lurk in Each Asset Class? news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Bloomberg

    German Investor Confidence Rebounds as Recession Averted. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/german-investor-confidence-rebounds-as-recession-averted.html

    Reuters

    U.K. inflation picks up slightly in October to 1.3 percent. www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/18/us-br...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Nov. 17, 2014, Monday)

    Market Watch

    Why you should favor large-cap stock for the next six weeks. www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should...

    Morningstar

    How Investors Got a Handle on Risk. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Bloomberg

    Draghi Seen Bypassing QE Qualms to Hit Balance-Sheet Goal. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-17/draghi...

    Reuters

    Japan's slip into surprise recession paves way for tax delay, snap poll. www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/17/us-ja...

    Nov 21 5:53 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Nov. 21, Friday) (I)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/8175519

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Nov. 21, Fri day)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Nov. 21, Friday based upon Closing Prices on Nov. 20, Thursday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Nov. 21, Friday)

    ETF:T1 (PFM VTI) A1 (DIA VAW) E1 (VNQ VPU) R1 (VXF VDE)

    ETF T2 (PFM MDY) A2 (VNQ VPU) E2 (PGF PZA) R2 (VAW VDE).

    ETF T3 (PFM VTI) A3 (VHT VPU) E3 (MDY VAW) R3 (VXF BND).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (PFM VAW) E.TM. 1-2 (VNQ VDE) E.TM. 1-3 (VTI VXF) E.TM. 2-3 (VPU MDY) E.TM. 1 (DIA VPU) E.TM. 2 (PGF PZA) E.TM. 3 (VHT BND)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) (Nov. 17, Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VTI BNDX) A1 (VFH VTWO) E1 (VCIT BND) R1 (VGK VDC)

    VANGUARD T2 (VUG VTV) A2 (BNDX VCIT) E2 (VTWO VXUS) R2 (BND BIV).

    VANGUARD T3 (VUG VTV) A3 (VTI VIG) E3 (VWO VEA) R2 (BSV VDE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2 (BNDX VCIT VTWO BND) VANGUARD 1-3 (NYSEARCA:VTI) VANGUARD 2-3 (VUG VTV) VANGUARD 1 (VVFH VGK VDC) VANGUARD 2 (VTI VXUS BIV) VANGUARD 3 (VIG VWO VEA BSV VDE)

    The Schwab ETF Model (TWM) (Nov. 17, Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHX FNDX) A1 (RYF FNDA) E1 (SCHZ SCHR) R1 (FNDF RYE)

    SCHWAD:T2 (RYF FNDX) A2 (SPLV SCHD) E2 (CVY SCHC) R2 (SCHR SCHO)

    SCHWAD:T3 (FNDX RSP) A3 (SCHD SPLV) E3 (SCHE CVY) R3 (SCHR SCHO)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (FNDX SCHR) SCHWAB 2-3 (RSP SCHD SPLV CVY SCHO) SCHWAB 1 (SCHX RYF FNDA SCHZ FNDF RYE) SCHWAB 2 (NYSEARCA:SCHC) SCHWAB 3 (NYSEARCA:SCHE)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Nov. 17, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (EDV PSK) A1 (IYH XSD) E1 (ITM SHY) R1 (XHB XME)

    ROTATION T2 (VCR IWD) A2 (RWR PCY) E2 (XSD XOP) R2 (IPE GLD).

    ROTATION T3 (VCR EDV) A3 (XPH KBE) E3 (EEM IPE) R (SHY CSJ).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2 (NYSEARCA:XSD) R.TM.1-3 (EDV SHY) R.TM.2-3 (VCR IPE) R.TM.1 (PSK IYH ITM XHB XME) R.TM.2 (IWD RWR PCY XOP GLD) R.TM.3 (XPH KBE EEM CSJ)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (Nov. 19, Monday)

    STOCK T1 (CME MA) A2 (AET CMG) E1 (PX DE) R1 (KO EDU)

    STOCK T2 (JWN MA) A2 (ISRG KO) E2 (BAC FLS) R2 (KRFT EDU).

    STOCK T3 (WMT MA) A3 (HD KO) E3 (TMO FLS) R3 (KRFT EDU ).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (MA KO EDU) S.TM.2-3 (FLS KRFT) S.TM.1 (CME AET CMG PX DE) S.TM.2 (JWN ISRG BAC) S.TM.3 (WMT HD TWO)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Nov 21 5:21 AM | Link | Comment!
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