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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 25 2015, Monday) Memorial Day

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 25 2015, Monday) Memorial Day

    Reuters

    Asian shares edge up, Fed views hurt some markets. www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/25/us-ma...

    Dollar back in vogue on CPI boost, Yellen's comments. www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/25/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 24 2015, Sunday)

    Morningstar

    Investors Increasingly Turning to Overseas Investments. www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.as...

    Market Watch

    10 companies with biggest earnings surprises. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-companies-with-the-biggest-earnings-surprises-2015-05-22

    Bloomberg

    Looking Ahead to Next Week's Economic Reports. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-05-22...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 23 2015, Saturday)

    Bloomberg

    Tsipras Urges European Creditors Compromise on Greek Deal. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 22 2015, Friday)

    Morningstar

    Seeking Sustainable Growth in Emerging Markets. www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.as...

    Bloomberg

    Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsiparas Talks. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-...

    Reuters

    Stocks get that Friday feeling as stimulus trump growth concern http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/22/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0O701B20150522

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 21 2015, Thursday)

    Reuters

    China shares rally after poor data, dollar holds gains. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-tread-water-dollar-010125056.html

    Bloomberg

    Too Much Deference o Fed Chairmen is Stunning Policy Debates, Former Governor Says. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-21/too-much-deference-to-fed-chairmen-is-stunting-policy-debates-former-governor-says

    Market Watch

    Signs this bull markets running out of steam. www.marketwatch.com/story/signs-this-bul...

    May 25 5:17 AM | Link | Comment!
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (May 26, 2015 Tuesday) (Ii)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (May 26, 2015 Tuesday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on May 26, 2015 Tuesday, based upon Closing Prices on May 22, 2015 Friday

    The ETF Model (NYSE:ETM) May 26, 2015 Tuesday)

    ETF T1 (MDY VTI) A1 (XLF VAW) E1 (VWO VNQ) R1 ( VPU TIP)

    ETF T2 (MDY VTI) A2 ( XLF VAW) E2 (VNQ PZA) R2 (VWO VDE).

    ETF T3 (SPY DIA) A3 (VHT VXF) E3 (PHB PZA) R3 (VNQ VDE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    ETF 1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:VWO) ETF1-2 (MDY VTI XLF VAW VNQ) ETF2-3 (PZA VDE) ETF (VPU TIP) ETF3 (SPY DIA VHT VXF PHB)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) May 18 2015 Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VTV VTI) A1 (VIG VSS) E1 (VXF VTWO) R1 (VGK VDE)

    VANGUARD T2 (VOO VTV) A2 (VWO VSS) E2 (VIG VFH) R2 (VGK VDE).

    VANGUARD T3 (VOO VTV) A3 (VEA VSS) E3 (VIG BNDX) R2 (VTWO VGK).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (VTV VSS VIG VGK) VANGUARD1-2 (NYSEARCA:VDE) VANGUARD1-3 (NASDAQ:VTWO) VANGUARD 2-3 (NYSEARCA:VOO) VANGUARD 1 (VTI VXF) VANGUARD 2 (VWO VFH) VANGUARD 3 (VEA BNDX)

    The Schwab ETF Model (May 18 2015 Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHX RSP) A1 (SCHC SCHF) E1 (SPLV SCHZ) R1 (FNDF SCHB)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHX RSP) A2 (SCHC SCHE) E2 (RYF SPLV) R2 (FNDF SCHO)

    SCHWAD:T3 (SCHX RSP) A3 (SCHC SCHF) E3 (SPLV CVY) R3 (FNDF SCHR)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHX RSP SCHC SPLV FNDE) SCHWAB 1-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHF) SCHWAB 1 (SCHZ SCHB) SCHWAB 2 (SCHE RYF SCHO) SCHWAB 3 (CVY SCHR)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (May 18 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (KBE KIE) A1 (IYH MTK) E1 (PSK EDV) R1 (SLV XME)

    ROTATION T2 (KBE IYH) A2 (XBI XRT) E2 (EDV GDX) R2 (XOP XME).

    ROTATION T3 (KBE KIE) A3 (XBI IYH) E3 (XHB SHY) R (EDV REM).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (KBE IYH EDV) R.TM.1-2 (NYSEARCA:XME) R.TM.1-3 (NYSEARCA:KIE) R.TM.2-3 (NYSEARCA:XBI) R.TM.1 (MTK PSK SLV) R.TM.2 (XRT GDX XOP) R.TM.3 (XHB SHY REM)

    The TANER Stock Model (May 26 2015 Tuesday)

    STOCK T1 (NVR ESRX) A2 (FDX CME) E1 (BA JWN) R1 (JNJ CAT)

    STOCK T2 (NVR ESRX) A2 (YUM PH) E2 (CME BA) R2 (CAT SU).

    STOCK T3 (NVR ESRX) A3 (YUM NKE) E3 (BA JWN) R3 (CAT SU).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (NVR ESRX BA CAT) S.TM.1-2 (NASDAQ:CME) S.TM.1-3 (NYSE:JWN) S.TM 2-3 (YUM SU) S.TM.1 (FDX JNJ) S.TM.2 (NYSE:PH) S.TM.3 (NYSE:NKE)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    May 24 9:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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  • Asian shares edge up, Fed views hurt some markets. http://reut.rs/1cVVj4W
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