Seeking Alpha

O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
Send Message
O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Dec. 29, Monday) (III)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Dec. Dec. 29, Monday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Dec. Dec. 29, Monday based upon Closing Prices on Dec. 26, Friday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Dec. Dec. 29, Monday)

    ETF:T1 (PFM VTI) A1 (VNQ XLF) E1 (PGF VWO) R1 (VHT BWX)

    ETF T2 (VTI MDY) A2 (QQQ SPY) E2 (PZA PGF) R2 (VHT VAW).

    ETF T3 (VTI MDY) A3 (VNQ QQQ) E3 (PZA PHB) R3 (VHT BWX).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (VTI VHT) E.TM. 1-2 (NYSEARCA:PGF) E.TM. 1-3 (VNQ BWX) E.TM. 2-3 (MDY QQQ PZA) E.TM. 1 (PFM XLF VWO) E.TM. 2 (SPY VAW) E.TM. 3 (NYSEARCA:PHB)

    The Schwab ETF Model (TWM) (Dec. 29, Mon day)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHM SCHX) A1 (SPLV SCHA) E1 (SCHF CVY) R1 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHX SCHM) A2 (SPLV SCHA) E2 (SCHZ SCHE) R2 (FNDF SCHF)

    SCHWAD:T3 (SCHX SCHM) A3 (SPLV FNDA) E3 (SCHE CVY) R3 (SCHF RYE)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHM SPLV SCHE) SCHWAB 1-2 (SCHX SCHA SCHZ) SCHWAB 1-3 (NYSEARCA:CVY) SCHWAB 2-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHF) SCHWAB 1 (NYSEARCA:SCHP) SCHWAB 2 (NYSEARCA:FNDF) SCHWAB 3 (FNDX FNDA RYE)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) (Dec. 29, Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VOO VFH) A1 (VXF VUG) E1 (VCIT VWO) R1 (VDE BSV)

    VANGUARD T2 (VOO VFH) A2 (VUG VIG) E2 (VCIT BND) R2 (VGK VEA).

    VANGUARD T3 (VOO VFH) A3 (VUG VXF) E3 (BND BIV) R2 (VGK VDE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (VOO VFH VUG) VANGUARD 1-2 (NASDAQ:VCIT) VANGUARD 1-3 (VXF VDE) VANGUARD 2-3 (BND VGK) VANGUARD 1 (VWO BSV) VANGUARD 2 (VIG VEA) VANGUARD 3 (NYSEARCA:BIV)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Dec. 22, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (IWD KIE) A1 (EDV XPH) E1 (PSK EEM) R1 (LQD SLV)

    ROTATION T2 (MTK XBI) A2 (VDC VIS) E2 (ITM SLV) R2 (REM XME).

    ROTATION T3 (MTK MBB) A3 (RWR SDY) E3 (KBE GDX) R (PSK HYG).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2 (NYSEARCA:SLV) R.TM.1-3 (NYSEARCA:PSK) R.TM.2-3 (NYSEARCA:MTK) R.TM.1 (IWD KIE EDV XPH EEM LQD) R.TM.2 (XBI VDC VIS ITM REM XME) R.TM.3 (MBB RWR SDY KBE GDX HYG)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (Dec. 22, Monday)

    STOCK T1 (AGN JWN) A2 (PRGO ESRX) E1 (NKE CAT) R1 (DE NUS)

    STOCK T2 (HD JWN) A2 (ESRX BEN) E2 (BIDU NFLX) R2 (YUM AMZN).

    STOCK T3 (HD BAC) A3 (FDX ESRX) E3 (BIDU FCX) R3 (KO NUS).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (NASDAQ:ESRX) S.TM.1-2 (NYSE:JWN) S.TM.1-3 (NYSE:NUS) S.TM.2-3 (HD BIDU) S.TM.1 (AGN PRGO NKE CAT DE) S.TM.2 (BEN NFLX YUM AMZN) S.TM.3 (BAC FDX FCX KO)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Dec 28 5:31 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 27, 2014, Saturday)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 27, 2014, Saturday)

    Bloomberg

    China's Industrial Profits Drop Most in Two Years Amid Slowdown. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-27/china-...

    Vietnam Economic Growth Quicken on Exports, Beating Target. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-27/vietnam-economic-growth-quickens-beating-2014-government-target.html

    Market Watch

    Why Vanguard Total Stock Market isn't the best fund in the fleet. www.marketwatch.com/story/why-vanguard-t...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 26, 2014, Friday)

    Bloomberg

    Japan Struggles to Escape Recession as Production Drop: Economy. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/japan-...

    Reuters

    Brent crude prices steady above $60 in thin Christmas trading. www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/26/us-ma...

    Market Watch

    Santa rally: Ho ho hold on a second… www.marketwatch.com/story/santa-rally-ho...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 25, 2014, Thursday) Christmas Day

    Bloomberg

    Saudi Arabia Sees Wider 2015 Budget Deficit as Oil Falls. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/saudi-arabia-sees-wider-2015-budget-deficit-as-oil-prices-plunge.html

    Russia Raises Forecast Deficit for Next Year as Recession Looms http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-25/russia-raises-forecast-deficit-for-next-year-as-recession-looms.html

    Reuters

    U.S. retailers likely to just meet holiday sales forecasts: experts. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/24/us-usa-holidaysales-idUSKBN0K218A20141224

    Market Watch

    2014 set for best job growth in 15 years, but there's room for improvement. www.marketwatch.com/story/2014-set-for-b...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Dec. 24, 2014, Wednesday)

    Morningstar

    The Best U.S. Equity Facor ETFs. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Market Watch

    Why stock market's rally won't last for much. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tis-the-season-for-a-stock-market-rally-but-not-for-long-2014-12-24?dist=afterbell

    The Fed is heading for another catastrophe. www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-is-hea...

    Bloomberg

    China to Reform Pensions by Asking Government Employees to Pay. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-24/china-...

    Reuters

    Global stocks rise, dollar strong as U.S. growth lifts holiday mood. www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/24/us-ma...

    Dec 27 10:30 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Update: The Performance Of A Vanguard Index Portfolio With Dual Controls (November 21, 2014)

    On Oct. 31, 2014 the Bank of Japan lifted global markets all together, and so did a somewhat coordinate actions of the central banks of China an the Eurozone on November 21, 2014.

    • The S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrials were closed at 2,063.50 and 17,810.56, respectively, making their record, and so did our Portfolio.
    • The Markets has become quiet and much less volatile in November, compared with those in October.
    • Another distinguishable market activity is that stocks and bonds have been quite often coupled, meaning both moving in the same direction. When stock move higher, bonds also rose due mainly to increasing global demand, induced by widening yield gaps. Stocks and bonds have advanced forth day in a row now.
    • The performance of our Portfolio has underperformed S&P 500 (without dividends) by 1.06 %. But a 3-week 1.17% (or an annual 20%) gain is satisfactory.
    • The current targets of The Asset-Allocation (A-A) Decision and The Cash-To-Capital (C/C) Ratio are a 75:25 and a 10%, respectively. The C/C Ratio is a near-term (a few weeks) control while The A-A Decision is a short-term (a few months) control. These two controls have worked out over October and November.

    Four Tables are followed:

     

    Table 1: Exchange of Vanguard Mutual Funds

         
     

    DATE

    FROM

    TO

    NOTE

     

    10/14/2014

    VBILX ($BIV) (13.6)

    VTSAX ($VTI) (3.07%)

    Oil Dropped

     

    VEXAX ($VXF) (3.07%

     

    VBTLX ($BND) (7.46%)

      
     

    VBIRX ($BSV) (20.1)

    VIGAX ($VUG) (1.0)

     

    VSMAX ($VB) (1.0)

     

    VGELX ($VDE) (2.1)

       
     

    10/15/2014

    VVIAX ($VTV) (3.1%)

    VTIAX ($VXUS) (3.1%)

    Stocks Plunged

     

    VFIAX ($VOO) (7.3%)

    VTIAX ($VXUS) (0.8%)

     

    VIGAX ($VUG) (3.3%)

     

    VSMAX ($VB) (3.2)

     

    VAIPX (NYSEARCA:TIP) (13.2%)

    VTSAX ($VTI) (1.0%)

     

    PMM (cash) (12.2%)

     

    10/16/2014

    PMM (cash)(1.0%)

    VEXAX ($VXF) (1.0%)

     
     

    10/17/2014

    PMM (cash)(2.0%

    VTSAX ($VTI) (1.0%)

     
     

    VEXAX ($VXF) (1.0%)

     
     

    10/29/2014

    VDADX ($VIG) (1.0%)

    PMM (cash)(1.0%)

    Rebalancin

     

    10/30/2014

    VDADX ($ViG) (1.0%)

    PMM (cash)(1.0%)

     
     

    10/31/2014

    PMM (cash)(2.0%)

    VBTLX ($BND) (1.0%)

    Stocks Surged

     

    VTABX ($BNDX) (1.0%)

     
     

    11/6/2014

    VDADX ($ViG) (1.0%)

    PMM (cash)(1.0%)

     
     

    11/21/2014

    VDADX ($ViG) (1.0%)

    PMM (cash)(1.0%)

     
         

    Note1 : The Vanguard Mutual Fund

     

    SYMBOL

    ETF

    NAME

     
     

    VBILX

    BIV

    Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Fund

     

    VBIRX

    BSV

    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Fund

     
     

    VTSAX

    VTI

    Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund

     

    VEXAX

    VXF

    Vanguard Extended Stock Market Fund

     

    VBTLX

    BND

    Vanguard Total Bond Fund

     
     

    VIGAX

    VUG

    Vanguard Groeth Fund

     
     

    VSMAX

    VB

    Vanguard Small-Cap Fund

     
     

    VGELX

    VDE

    Vanguard Energy Fund

     
     

    VVIAX

    VTV

    Vanguard Value Fund

     
     

    VTIAX

    VXUS

    Vanguard International Stock Fund

     

    VFIAX

    VOO

    Vanguard S&P 500 Fund

     
     

    VAIPX

    (TIP)

    Vanguard Treasury Inflation Protection Securities Fund

     

    VDADX

    VIG

    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund

     

    VTABX

    BNDX

    Vanguard World Except U.S. Stock Fund

         

    Note 2: TIP is not Vanguard ETF. It is iShares TIPS Bond ETF

    Table 2: The A-A Decision, The C/C Ratio, & The S&P 5oo

          
     

    A-A DECISION

    C/C

    S&P 500 Stock

    DATE

    STOCKS

    BONDS

    RATIO

    INDEX

    %CH

    10/31/2014

    74%

    26%

    8.6

    2,018.05

     

    11/3/2014

    75%

    45%

    8.6

    2,017.81

    0.0%

    11/4/2014

    74%

    26%

    8.6

    2,012.10

    -0.3%

    11/5/2014

    74%

    26%

    8.6

    2,023.57

    0.6%

    11/6/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.6

    2,031.21

    0.4%

    11/7/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,877.70

    -7.9%

    11/10/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,860.49

    -0.9%

    11/11/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,862.76

    0.1%

    11/12/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,896.76

    1.8%

    11/13/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,904.01

    0.4%

    11/14/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,941.28

    1.9%

    11/17/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,927.11

    -0.7%

    11/18/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,900.42

    -1.4%

    11/19/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,964.58

    3.3%

    11/20/2014

    73%

    27%

    9.5

    1,961.63

    -0.2%

    11/21/2014

    73%

    27%

    10.4

    1,985.05

    1.2%

    Table 3: Performance Comparison: Portfolio vs. S&P 500 Stock Index

            
     

    Portfolio

    S&P 500

    Perf

    DATE

    9/30 = 100

    % ch

    Cum % Ch

    INDEX

    % ch

    Cum % Ch

    Diff

    10/31/2014

    100.00

      

    2,018.05

       

    11/3/2014

    99.73

    -0.27%

    -0.27%

    2,017.81

    -0.01%

    -0.01%

    -0.26%

    11/4/2014

    99.24

    -0.49%

    -0.77%

    2,012.10

    -0.28%

    -0.30%

    -0.47%

    11/5/2014

    99.60

    0.37%

    -0.40%

    2,023.57

    0.57%

    0.27%

    -0.67%

    11/6/2014

    99.87

    0.27%

    -0.13%

    2,031.21

    0.38%

    0.65%

    -0.78%

    11/7/2014

    100.11

    0.24%

    0.11%

    2,031.90

    0.03%

    0.68%

    -0.58%

    11/10/2014

    100.26

    0.15%

    0.26%

    2,038.26

    0.31%

    1.00%

    -0.74%

    11/11/2014

    100.34

    0.08%

    0.34%

    2,039.68

    0.07%

    1.07%

    -0.73%

    11/12/2014

    100.32

    -0.03%

    0.31%

    2,038.25

    -0.07%

    1.00%

    -0.68%

    11/13/2014

    100.07

    -0.25%

    0.06%

    2,039.33

    0.05%

    1.05%

    -0.98%

    11/14/2014

    100.25

    0.18%

    0.25%

    2,039.82

    0.02%

    1.07%

    -0.83%

    11/17/2014

    100.00

    -0.25%

    0.00%

    2,041.32

    0.07%

    1.15%

    -1.15%

    11/18/2014

    100.43

    0.43%

    0.43%

    2,051.80

    0.51%

    1.66%

    -1.23%

    11/19/2014

    100.23

    -0.20%

    0.23%

    2,048.72

    -0.15%

    1.51%

    -1.28%

    11/20/2014

    100.63

    0.41%

    0.63%

    2,052.75

    0.20%

    1.70%

    -1.07%

    11/21/2014

    101.18

    0.54%

    1.17%

    2,063.50

    0.52%

    2.23%

    -1.06%

            

    Note: The percent change formula: 200*(B-A)/(B+A)

    Table 4 Vanguard Mutual Fund Allocation.

           

    Vanguard Mutual Fund

    DATE

    SYMBOL

    ETF

    10/13/2014

    10/15/2014

    10/31/2014

    11/17/2014

    11/21/2014

    VMMXX

    PMM

    0.0%

    12.0%

    8.6%

    9.5%

    10.4%

    VTSAX

    VTI

    8.1%

    12.2%

    13.5%

    13.6%

    13.7%

    VEXAX

    VXF

    3.9%

    11.2%

    13.6%

    13.6%

    13.6%

    AFIAX

    VOO

    7.2%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    9.0%

    9.0%

    VIGAX

    VUG

    5.2%

    9.5%

    9.5%

    9.8%

    9.9%

    VSMAX

    VB

    4.7%

    9.1%

    9.4%

    9.4%

    9.4%

    VVIAX

    VTV

    3.3%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VGELX

    VDE

    8.5%

    10.4%

    10.4%

    10.4%

    10.4%

    VDADX

    VIG

    10.0%

    10.0%

    8.2%

    7.3%

    6.4%

    VTIAX

    VXUS

    6.3%

    9.5%

    9.5%

    9.3%

    9.4%

    VTLX

    BND

    6.3%

    9.7%

    10.0%

    10.1%

    9.9%

    VTABX

    BNDX

    6.3%

    0.0%

    7.0%

    7.0%

    6.9%

    VAIPX

    (TIP)

    13.1%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VBILX

    BIV

    13.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    VBIRX

    BSV

    4.1%

    6.4%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    0.0%

    TOTAL

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

    100.0%

           

    Note 1: The Vanguard Mutual Fund

    SYMBOL

    ETF

    NAME

    VMMXX

    (NYSE:PMM)

    Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund

    VTSAX

    VTI

    Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund

    VEXAX

    VXF

    Vanguard Extended Stock Market Fund

    AFIAX

    VOO

    Vanguard S&P 500 Fund

    VIGAX

    VUG

    Vanguard Growth Fund

    VSMAX

    VB

    Vanguard Small-Cap Fund

    VVIAX

    VTV

    Vanguard Value Fund

    VGELX

    VDE

    Vanguard Energy Fund

    VDADX

    VIG

    Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Fund

    VTIAX

    VXUS

    Vanguard International Stock Fund

    VTLX

    BND

    Vanguard Total Bond Fund

    VTABX

    BNDX

    Vanguard World Except U.S. Stock Fund

    VAIPX

    (TIP)

    Vanguard Treasury Inflation Protection Securities Fund

    VBILX

    BIV

    Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Fund

    VBIRX

    BSV

    Vanguard Short-Term Bond Fund

           

    Note 2: PMM is Prime Money Market Fund which is cash

    Nov 23 4:50 PM | Link | 1 Comment
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) Momentum 12/29/2014 Monday: (3) Vanguard Interm-Term Bond ETF ($BIV) <c>
    about 6 hours ago
  • TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) Momentum 12/29/2014 Monday: (2) Vanguard Dividend Achievers ETF ($VIG) Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (VEA) <c>
    about 6 hours ago
  • TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) Momentum 12/29/2014 Monday: (1) Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF ($BSV) <c>
    about 6 hours ago
More »
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.