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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]), were introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/8175519

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (April 21, Monday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on April 21, Monday based upon Closing Prices on April 17, Thursday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (April 1April 21, Monday)

    ETF:T1 (PFM VXF) A1 (VDE VWO) E1 (QQQ VHT) R1 (VNQ PZA)

    ETF T2 (PFM VPU) A2 (VDE XLF) E2 (QQQ PHB) R2 (VWO VNQ).

    ETF T3 (PFM VPU) A3 (VDE MDY) E3 (QQQ PHB) R3 (VWO VNQ).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (PFM VPU QQQ VWO VNQ) E.TM. 2-3 (VVPU PHB) E.TM. 1 (VXF PZA) E.TM. 2 (XLF) E.TM. 3 (MDY)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (April 7, Monday)

    STOCK T1 (CAT NVR) A2 (SU BA) E1 (CMG BIDU) R1 (WMT KSU)

    STOCK T2 (CAT NVR) A2 (JOY NKE) E2 (BAC NFLX) R2 (WMT IBM).

    STOCK T3 (CAT FLS) A3 (JOY ESRX) E3 (CMG AMZN) R3 (WMT KSU).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2 (CAT WMT) S.TM.1-2 (NVR) S.TM.1-3 (CMG KSU) S.TM.2-3 (JOY) S.TM.1 (SU BA BIDU) S.TM.2 (A (NKE BAC NFLX IBM) S.TM.3 (FLS ESRX AMZN))

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (April 7, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (SDY VEA) A1 (XOP EEM) E1 (IWM XBI) R1 (RWR EDV)

    ROTATION T2 (SDY VIS) A2 (XSD XPH) E2 (CSJ LQD) R2 (XBI GLD).

    ROTATION T3 (SDY XME) A3 (IYH CSJ) E3 (XRT ELD) R (RWR REM).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (SDY) R.TM.1-2 (XBI) R.TM.1-3 (RWR) R.TM.2-3 (CSJ) R.TM.1 (VEA XOP EEM IWM EDV) R.TM.2 (VIS XSD XPH LQD GLD) R.TM.3 (XME IYH XRT ELD REM)

    The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) (April 7, Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VYM VSS) A1 (VDE VMBS) E1 (VEU VEA) R1 (VNQ EDV)

    VANGUARD T2 (VPU VYM) A2 (VAW VXF) E2 (VEA VOX) R2 (VCR VNQ).

    VANGUARD T3 (VYM VEU) A3(VDE VHT) E3 (VEA VFH) R3 (VNQ EDV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    V.TM.1-2-3 (VYM VEA VNQ) V.V.TM.1-3 (VEU VDE EDV) V.TM.1 (VTI VSS VMBS) V.TM.2 (VPU VAW VXF VOX VCR) V.TM.2 (VHT VFH))

    Link: www.seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/1111541-the-taner-data. You can get the names of securities with the ticker symbol in The TEM, The TSM, The TRM, and The TVM...

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (A) and Emerging (E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Apr 19 4:17 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 19 2014, Saturdayday)

    Bloomberg

    Payroll Rose in Most U.S. States in March, Led by Florida. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/payrolls-rose-in-most-u-s-states-in-march-led-by-florida-1-.html

    China March New Home Price Increase Ease on Tighter Credit. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/china-...

    Reuters

    Jobless claim, factory data put some shine on economy. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-us...

    Russia's PM says government has funds to honor social spending pledges. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/19/us-ru...

    Morningstar

    Markets Pop but Shadows Linger. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Does Your Portfolio Need a 'Succession Plan'? http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=643416

    Avoid These Incredibly Overvalued Closed-End Funds. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 18 2014, Friday) (Good Friday)

    Reuters

    U.S.-focused stock funds worldwide put $7.1 billion outflow: BofA. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-in...

    Morningstar

    Lost in Translation: Emerging-Markets Dividend ETFs. http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=643177

    What to Think About Fund Compan news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.... Mergers. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Bloomberg

    Yellen Sees Muted Inflation as Unemployment Curbs Wages. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/yellen...

    Chile Keeps 4% Rate After Four Rate Reduction in Six Months. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-17/chile-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 17 2014, Thursday)

    Morningstar

    Google Shares Slide After Disappointing Results. http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow-jones/us-markets/2014041611905/google-shares-slide-after-disappointing-results.aspx

    Small Fund Firms, Strong Stewards. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 16 2014, Wednesday)

    Bloomberg

    U.K Unemployment Rate Falls to Five-Year Low. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-16/u-k-unemployment-falls-to-6-9-below-boe-guidance-level.html

    China's Growth Slows to Six-Quarter Low. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/china-s-gdp-growth-slows-to-7-4-in-first-quarter-on-investment.html

    U.S. Urges China to Allow Biggest Market Role in Valuing Yan. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/china-urged-by-u-s-to-let-market-play-bigger-role-valuing-yuan.html

    Japan's Population Shrinks for Third Year as Aging Increases. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/japan-...

    Reuters

    Michigan, White House discuss federal money for bankrupt Detroit: report. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-usa-detroit-obama-idUSBREA3F08620140416

    Fed should try to align projections with policy statement: Lockhart. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-usa-fed-lockhart-idUSBREA3F0V120140416

    Fed should beef up low-rate vows: two officials say. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-fed-idUSBREA3F04Q20140416

    China economic growth slows to 18-month low in first-quarter. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/16/us-ch...

    Morningst

    Another Look at a Popular Dividend Growth Fund. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=643125

    With Social Security, Waiting Can Be the Hardest Part. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Cloud Infrastructure Sales Bright Spot for Intel. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    How to Decide Risk and Return Measures. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 15, 2014, Tuesday)

    Morningstar

    TIAA-CREF to Acqiire Nuveen Investments. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Reuters

    China money market shrugs off massive drain, benchmark rate slides. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-markets-china-bonds-idUSBREA3E07420140415

    Japan Aso: Told G20 that Japan's economy in good shape. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-ja...

    Bloomberg

    U.K Inflation Rate Falls to 1.6% Lowest in Four Years. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/u-k-in...

    China New Credit Deadlines as Money-Supply Growth Decelerates. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/china-new-credit-exceeds-estimates.html

    RBA Repeats Steady Cash Rate Likely as Domestic Demand Boosted http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-15/rba-repeats-steady-cash-rate-likely-as-domestic-demand-boosted.html

    Fragile Europe Weakens U.S. Push for Russia Sanctions. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/fragil...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (April 14, 2014, Monday)

    Bloomberg

    Obama's Shrinking Budget Deficits Silence Foreign Critics. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/obama-s-shrinking-budget-deficits-silence-foreign-fiscal-critics.html

    China Tightens Oversight of Trusts as Default Risk Rises. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/china-...

    World-Leading $25 Hourly Wage Roils Swiss. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/world-...

    ECB Pioneer Confronts Too-Big-to-Fail Banks With Newly Won Clout. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/ecb-pioneer-confronts-too-big-to-fail-banks-with-newly-won-clout.html

    Italy Tests Retail Interest for Inflation-Linked Bond. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-13/italy-tests-retail-interest-for-inflation-linked-bond.html

    Jordan Says SNB Minimum Exchange Rate Extremely Important. www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-12/jordan...

    Reuters

    Bullish U.S. March retail sales brighten growth outlook. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/us-retail-sales-idUSBREA3D0SP20140414

    France shops red tape to save firms billions of euros. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/us-france-redtape-idUSBREA3D0S920140414

    World trade picture improves but 2014 still below trend: WTO. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/us-economy-trade-idUSBREA3D0LZ20140414

    BOJ Kuroda's meeting with PM Abe won't alter policy stance: source. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/us-ja...

    Euro zone output broadly in line with expectations in February. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/us-eu...

    GLOBAL MARKETS - Ukraine tensions land fresh blow on struggling stocks. www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/14/marke...

    Apr 19 5:53 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily A-A Decision & C/C Ratio (DAC)

    The Daily A-A Decision & C/C Ratio (DAC) (Jan. 13, 2014 Monday)

    The 2 Controls on my Dual Portfolio - The Asset-Allocation (A-A) Decision and The Cash-To-Capital (C/C) Ratio (Table 2) and The Vanguard Mutual Fund Allocation (Table 3) along with Table 1, including the Market Stress Index (MSI), were introduced in my article, "A Dual-Portfolio Strategy With 2 Controls Has Worked Out. Can It Weather Any Looming Storm?": www.seekingalpha.com/article/1822632 The following three tables update data.

    (Jan. 10, 2014, Friday)

     

     

    Table 1: The S&P 5oo Index, The C/C Ratio, & The MSI

           
     

    S&P 500

    CASH TO CAPITAL

    MSI

    DATE

    INDEX

    % ch

    Cum % ch

    RATIO

    % ch

    11/29/2013

    1,805.81

    *

    *

    15.1

    *

    50.0

    12/2/2013

    1,800.90

    -0.27%

    -0.27%

    16.8

    10.66%

    64.3

    12/3/2013

    1,795.15

    -0.32%

    -0.32%

    15.8

    -6.13%

    50.0

    12/4/2013

    1,792.81

    -0.13%

    -0.13%

    14.3

    -9.97%

    50.0

    12/5/2013

    1,785.03

    -0.43%

    -0.43%

    11.9

    -18.32%

    57.1

    12/6/2013

    1,805.09

    1.12%

    1.12%

    14.9

    22.39%

    57.1

    12/9/2013

    1,808.31

    0.18%

    0.18%

    14.9

    0.00%

    64.3

    12/10/2013

    1,802.62

    -0.32%

    -0.32%

    14.6

    -2.03%

    64.3

    12/11/2013

    1,782.22

    -1.14%

    -1.14%

    10.1

    -36.44%

    50.0

    12/12/2013

    1,775.50

    -0.38%

    -0.38%

    10.5

    3.88%

    64.3

    12/13/2013

    1,775.32

    -0.01%

    -0.01%

    10.5

    0.00%

    64.3

    12/16/2013

    1,786.54

    0.63%

    0.63%

    11.1

    5.56%

    57.1

    12/17/2013

    1,781.00

    -0.31%

    -0.31%

    11.1

    0.00%

    50.0

    12/18/2013

    1,810.65

    1.65%

    1.65%

    14.7

    27.91%

    42.9

    12/19/2013

    1,809.60

    -0.06%

    -0.06%

    13.8

    -6.32%

    35.7

    12/20/2013

    1,818.31

    0.48%

    0.48%

    15.4

    10.96%

    50.0

    12/23/2013

    1,827.99

    0.53%

    0.53%

    16.1

    4.44%

    42.9

    12/24/2013

    1,833.32

    0.29%

    0.29%

    15.5

    -3.80%

    35.7

    12/26/2013

    1,842.02

    0.47%

    0.47%

    16.1

    3.80%

    42.9

    12/27/2019

    1,841.40

    -0.03%

    -0.03%

    25.1

    43.69%

    42.9

    12/30/2014

    1,841.07

    -0.02%

    -0.02%

    26.2

    4.29%

    35.7

    12/31/2014

    1,848.36

    0.40%

    0.40%

    28.5

    8.41%

    42.9

    1/2/2014

    1,831.98

    -0.89%

    -0.89%

    29.4

    3.11%

    28.6

    1/3/2014

    1,831.31

    -0.04%

    -0.04%

    29.2

    -0.68%

    28.6

    1/6/2014

    1,826.97

    -0.24%

    -0.24%

    29.4

    0.68%

    42.9

    1/7/2014

    1,837.88

    0.60%

    0.60%

    29.9

    1.69%

    35.7

    1/8/2014

    1,837.49

    -0.02%

    -0.02%

    29.9

    0.00%

    50.0

    1/9/2014

    1,838.13

    0.03%

    0.01%

    27.7

    -7.64%

    50.0

    1/10/2014

    1,842.37

    0.23%

    0.24%

    28.4

    2.50%

    50.0

           

    Note: The percent change formula: 200*(B-A)/(B+A)

     

    (Jan. 10, 2014, Friday

    Table 2: The A-A Decision, The C/C Ratio, & The S&P 5oo

         
     

    A/A DECISION

    C/C

    S&P 500

    DATE

    STOCKS

    BONDS

    RATIO

    INDEX

    11/5/2013

    56%

    44%

    15.9

    1,762.97

    11/6/2013

    56%

    44%

    17.0

    1,770.49

    11/7/2013

    55%

    45%

    18.2

    1,747.15

    11/8/2013

    59%

    41%

    14.8

    1,770.61

    11/11/2013

    59%

    41%

    15.4

    1,771.89

    11/12/2013

    59%

    41%

    15.2

    1,767.69

    11/13/2013

    59%

    41%

    14.1

    1,782.00

    11/14/2013

    59%

    41%

    14.8

    1,790.62

    11/15/2013

    59%

    41%

    18.5

    1,798.18

    11/18/2013

    59%

    41%

    19.0

    1,791.53

    11/19/2013

    60%

    40%

    12.7

    1,787.87

    11/20/2013

    60%

    40%

    11.4

    1,781.37

    11/21/2013

    62%

    38%

    11.9

    1,795.85

    11/22/2013

    62%

    38%

    11.9

    1,804.76

    11/25/2013

    58%

    42%

    16.5

    1,802.48

    11/26/2013

    58%

    42%

    16.5

    1,802.75

    11/27/2013

    58%

    42%

    16.5

    1,807.23

    11/29/2013

    58%

    42%

    15.1

    1,805.81

    12/2/2013

    64%

    36%

    16.8

    1,800.90

    12/3/2013

    64%

    36%

    15.8

    1,795.15

    12/4/2013

    64%

    36%

    14.3

    1,792.81

    12/5/2013

    63%

    37%

    11.9

    1,785.03

    12/6/2013

    62%

    38%

    14.9

    1,805.09

    12/9/2013

    62%

    38%

    14.9

    1,808.31

    12/10/2013

    59%

    41%

    14.6

    1,802.62

    12/11/2013

    62%

    38%

    10.1

    1,782.22

    12/12/2013

    62%

    38%

    10.5

    1,775.50

    12/13/2013

    62%

    38%

    10.5

    1,775.32

    12/16/2013

    63%

    37%

    11.1

    1,786.54

    12/17/2013

    63%

    37%

    11.1

    1,781.00

    12/18/2013

    63%

    37%

    14.7

    1,810.65

    12/19/2013

    61%

    39%

    13.8

    1,809.60

    12/20/2013

    61%

    39%

    15.4

    1,818.31

    12/23/2013

    65%

    35%

    16.1

    1,827.99

    12/24/2013

    65%

    35%

    15.5

    1,833.32

    12/26/2013

    65%

    35%

    16.1

    1,842.02

    12/27/2013

    73%

    27%

    25.1

    1,841.40

    12/30/2014

    75%

    25%

    26.2

    1,841.07

    12/31/2014

    75%

    25%

    28.5

    1,848.36

    1/2/2014

    78%

    22%

    29.4

    1,831.98

    1/3/2014

    81%

    19%

    29.2

    1,831.31

    1/6/2014

    79%

    21%

    29.4

    1,826.97

    1/7/2014

    79%

    21%

    29.9

    1,837.88

    1/8/2014

    78%

    22%

    29.9

    1,837.49

    1/9/2014

    80%

    20%

    27.7

    1,838.13

    1/10/2014

    81%

    19%

    28.4

    1,842.37

    (Jan. 10, 3014 Friday)

     

     

    Table 3: The Mutual Fund Allocation (Jan. 10, 2014)

     

    Vanguard Mutual Fund

     

    ETF

    NAME

    SYMBOL

    %

    VTI

    Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares

    VTSAX

    20.7%

    VXF

    Extended Market Index Admiral Shares

    VEXAX

    19.7%

    VTV

    Value Index Admiral Shares

    VVIAX

    21.6%

    VB

    Small-Cap Index Admiral Shares

    VSMAX

    16.9%

    VCIT

    Intermediate-Term Corp Bond Index Admiral

    VICSX

    5.9%

    VEU

    FTSE All-World ex-US Index Admiral Shares

    VFWAX

    16.2%

     

    TOTAL

     

    100.0%

    (Dec. 27, 3013 Monday)

     

     

    Table 3: The Mutual Fund Allocation (Dec. 13, 2013)

     

    Vanguard Mutual Fund

     

    ETF

    NAME

    SYMBOL

    %

    VTI

    Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares

    VTSAX

    21.05%

    VXF

    Extended Market Index Admiral Shares

    VEXAX

    21.02%

    VTV

    Value Index Admiral Shares

    VVIAX

    22.02%

    VB

    Small-Cap Index Admiral Shares

    VSMAX

    17.11%

    BND

    Total Bond Market Index Admiral Shares

    VBTLX

    3.22%

    VEU

    FTSE All-World ex-US Index Admiral Shares

    VFWAX

    15.59%

     

    TOTAL

     

    100.00%

    (Dec. 13, 3013 Monday)

     

     

    Table 3: The Mutual Fund Allocation (Nov. 15, 2013)

     

    Vanguard Mutual Fund

     

    ETF

    NAME

    SYMBOL

    %

    VTI

    Total Stock Market Index Admiral Shares

    VTSAX

    18.66%

    VXF

    Extended Market Index Admiral Shares

    VEXAX

    17.37%

    VTV

    Value Index Admiral Shares

    VVIAX

    20.54%

    BND

    Total Bond Market Index Admiral Shares

    VBTLX

    25.51%

    TIP

    Inflation Protection Securities Admiral Shares

    VAPSX

    1.23%

    VEU

    FTSE All-World ex-US Index Admiral Shares

    VFWAX

    16.70%

     

    TOTAL

     

    100.00%

    Nov 24 12:55 PM | Link | Comment!
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