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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 31 2015, Monday

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 31 2015, Monday

    Marketwatch

    Jobs report could stop the Fed - but nt make it act. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-could-prevent-rate-hike-but-unlikely-to-ensure-one-2015-08-30

    Asian stocks poised for worst month in more than three years. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-stocks-poised-for-worst-month-in-more-than-three-years-2015-08-31

    Now is the time to fix your investment portfolio. www.marketwatch.com/story/now-is-the-tim...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 30 2015, Sunday

    Morningstar

    U.S. Economy Much Stronger Than Believed. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=713296

    Weitz: Raw Material for Correction Has Been There All Along. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=712827

    How to Stay Calm When Markets Are Not. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 29 2015, Saturday

    Reuters

    Focus turns to U.S. data as China slowdown looms. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/29/us-markets-stocks-usa-weekahead-idUSKCN0QX2AC20150829

    Fed says rate hike next month hinges on market volatility. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/28/us-usa-fed-idUSKCN0QX1CR20150828

    Stock market volatility could slow cooling IPO market. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/28/us-markets-global-ipo-idUSKCN0QX2HJ20150828

    Wall Street ends flat in quiet end to dramatic week. www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/28/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 29 2015, Friday

    Marketwatch

    China's economy may be in worse shape than thought. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-may-be-in-worse-shape-than-people-think-2015-08-27

    Morningstar

    Despite Recent Turmoil, U.S. economy Remain Steady. http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=712949

    Bloomberg

    Only Way Is Up for China Markets as Xi Prepares for WWII Parade. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (August 27 2015, Thursday

    Reuters

    Stocks fly after U.S. data, Fed official cools on rate hike. finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-stocks-wall-...#

    Morningstar

    Coffina: Few Screaming Buys After Recent Sell-Off. http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=712944

    High-Quality Stocks on Sale. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=712774

    Do You Need a Bear-Market Fund? news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Aug 31 5:23 AM | Link | Comment!
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (August 31, 2015 Monday) (IV)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (August 31, 2015 Monday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on August 31, 2015 Monday, based upon Closing Prices on August 28, 2015 Friday)

    The ETF Model (NYSE:ETM) August 31, 2015 Monday)

    ETF T1 (PFM XLF) A1 (PGF XLF) E1 (VAW VWO) R1 (VNQ VPU)

    ETF T2 (PFM MDY) A2 (QQQ PGF) E2 (VAW VWO) R2 (VNQ VPU).

    ETF T3 (PFM MDY) A3 (VHT XLF) E3 (VAW VWO) R3 (VNQ BND).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    ETF1-2-3 (PFM VAW VWO VNQ) ETF1-2 (PGF VPU) ETF1-3 (VHT XLF) ETF2-3 (NYSEARCA:MDY) ETF2 (NASDAQ:QQQ) ETF 3 (NYSEARCA:BND)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) August 17, 2015 Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VFH VOO) A1 (VIG VEA) E1 (VTWO VDE) R1 (BNDX BSV)

    VANGUARD T2 (VFH VXF) A2 (VUG VGK) E2 (BSV BND) R2 (VSS VWO).

    VANGUARD T3 (VTV VB) A3 (VUG VIG) E3 (VEA VXUS) R2 (BNDX BSV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:BSV) VANGUARD1-2 (NYSEARCA:VFH) VANGUARD 1-3 (VIG VEA BNDX) VANGUARD2-3 (NYSEARCA:VUG) VANGUARD 1 (VOO VTWO VDE) VANGUARD 2 (VXF VGK BND VSS VWO) VANGUARD 3 (VTV VB VXUS)

    The Schwab ETF Model (August 31, 2015 Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHB SCHA) A1 (RSP RYF) E1 (FNDF SCHE) R1 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHB SCHM) A2 (SPLV RYF) E2 (FNDF SCHE) R2 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SCHWAD:T3 (SCHB SCHM) A3 (SPLV RYF) E3 (FNDF SCHE) R3 (SCHZ SCHP)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHB RYF FNDF SCHESCHZ SCHP) SCHWAB 2-3 (SCHM SPLV) SCHWAB 1 (SCHA RSP)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (August 31, 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (MBB IYH) A1 (KIE PSK) E1 (EDV KCE) R1 (SLV GDX)

    ROTATION T2 (XHB MBB) A2 (XBI EDV) E2 (XSD SHY) R2 (ELD LQD).

    ROTATION T3 (MBB MTK) A3 (IYH KBE) E3 (EDV REM) R (SHY KCE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (MBB EDV) R.TM.1-3 (IYH KCE) R.TM.2-3 (NYSEARCA:SHY) R.TM.1 (KIE PSK SLV GDX) R.TM.2 (XHB XBI ELD LQD) R.TM.3 (MTK KBE REM)

    The TANER Stock Model (August 31, 2015 Monday)

    STOCK T1 (NKE MA) A2 (AET CME) E1 (FDX WMT) R1 (SU CAT)

    STOCK T2 (NKE ESRX) A2 (NVR AMZN) E2 (BA WMT) R2 (SU KSU).

    STOCK T3 (MA ESRX) A3 (AMZN CME) E3 (FDX BA) R3 (CAT KSU).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2 (NKE WMT SU) S.TM 1-3 (MA CME FDX CAT) S.TM 2-3 (ESRX AMZN BA KSU) S.TM 1 (NYSE:AET) S.TM.2 (NYSE:NVR)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Aug 30 4:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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  • Jobs report could stop the Fed - but nt make it act. http://tinyurl.com/ndrpafw
    about 2 hours ago
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