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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (July 6, 2015 Monday) (I)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (July 6, 2015 Monday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on July 6, 2015 Monday, based upon Closing Prices on July 2, 2015 Thursday)

    The ETF Model (NYSE:ETM) July 6, 2015 Monday)

    ETF T1 (QQQ MDY) A1 (XLF SPY) E1 (PHB VPU) R1 (TIP VDE)

    ETF T2 (MDY PFM) A2 (VHT XLF) E2 (VWO VDE) R2 (PGF TIP).

    ETF T3 (VXF MDY) A3 (XLF SPY) E3 (VWO VNQ) R3 (VDE BWX).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    ETF1-2 (MDY XLF VDE) ETF1-2 (NYSEARCA:TIP) ETF1-3 (NYSEARCA:SPY) ETF2-3 (NYSEARCA:VWO) ETF1 (QQQ PHB VPU) ETF2 (PFM VHT PGF) ETF3 (VXF VNQ BWX)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) June 29, 2015 Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VXF VEA) A1 (VFH VUG) E1 (VXUS VGK) R1 (BSV BND)

    VANGUARD T2 (VTWO VTI) A2 (VB VIG) E2 (VXUS VWO) R2 (BSV BIV).

    VANGUARD T3 (VTWO VXF) A3 (VUG VFH) E3 BNDX VCIT) R2 (VSS BSV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:BSV) VANGUARD1-2 (NASDAQ:VXUS) VANGUARD1-3 (VXF VUG) VANGUARD 2-3 (NASDAQ:VTWO) VANGUARD 1 (VEA VFH VGK BND) VANGUARD 2 (VTI VB VIG VWO BIV) VANGUARD 3 (VFH BNDX VCIT VSS)

    The Schwab ETF Model (June 23 2015 Tuesday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (FNDA FNDX) A1 (RYF SCHB) E1 (SCHF FNDF) R1 (SCHR SCHZ)

    SCHWAD:T2 (FNDA FNDX) A2 (SCHA SCHB) E2 (SCHF FNDF) R2 (SCHR SCHZ)

    SCHWAD:T3 (FNDA RSP) A3 (SCHA SCHB) E3 (SCHF FNDA) R3 (SCHC SCHE)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (FNDA SCHB SCHF SCHE) SCHWAB 1-2 (FNDX SCHR SCHZ) SCHWAB 2-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHA) SCHWAB 1 (NYSEARCA:RYF) SCHZ) SCHWAB 3 (RSP SCHC SCHE)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (June 22 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (KIE MYK) A1 (KCE KBE) E1 (GDX XME) R1 (SHY ITM)

    ROTATION T2 (XSD KCE) A2 (XBI KBE) E2 (EDV ELD) R2 (SLV XME).

    ROTATION T3 (IYH XSD) A3 (XBI MTK) E3 (EDV GDX) R (XOP XME).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:XME) R.TM.1-2 (KCE KBE) R.TM.1-3 (MTK GDX) R.TM.2-3 (XSD XBIEDV) R.TM.1 (KIE SHY ITM) R.TM.2 (ELD SLV) R.TM.3 (IYH XOP)

    The TANER Stock Model (June 25, 2015 Thursday)

    STOCK T1 (NVR AMZN) A2 (AET MA) E1 (BA PH) R1 (NKE CAT)

    STOCK T2 (NVR AMZN) A2 (AET CME) E2 (BA JNJ) R2 (NKE CAT).

    STOCK T3 (NVR HD) A3 (AET MA) E3 (BA JNJ) R3 (NKE CAT).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (NVR AET BA NKE CAT) S.TM 1-2 (NASDAQ:AMZN) S.TM 1-3 (NYSE:MA) S.TM 2-3 (NYSE:JNJ) S.TM.1 (NYSE:PH) S.TM.2 (NASDAQ:CME) S.TM.3 (NYSE:HD)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Jul 04 6:59 AM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 4, 2015, Saturday) Independence Day

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 4, 2015, Saturday) Independence Day

    Bloomberg

    Tsipras Faces Off With Europe Over Austerity Before Sunday Vote. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-03/greek-confrontation-sees-sides-square-off-as-crunch-vote-looms

    Reuters

    Greece deeply divided heading into crucial vote. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/04/us-eu...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 3, 2015, Friday)

    Morningstar

    What Impact Will Greek Troubles Have on Corporate Bonds? www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.as...

    Market Watch

    As China stocks sink, some accuse Morgan Stanley, other foreign forces. www.marketwatch.com/story/as-china-stock...

    Bloomberg

    Greek Split Down Middle Before Bailout Referendum: Bloomberg Poll. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-...

    Reuters

    European bonds and stocks on the defensive before tight Greek vote. www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/03/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 2, 2015, Thursday)

    Bloomberg

    Why the EU Fed Up With Greece. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-02/everybody-hates-greece

    Reuters

    Weak employment report dampens September rate hike bets. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/02/us-usa-economy-employment-idUSKCN0PC1BJ20150702

    Market Watch

    Big winners in 2015's first half: Chinese and biotech ETFs. www.marketwatch.com/story/big-winners-in...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (July 1, 2015, Wednesday)

    Bloomberg

    Greece PM Tsipras Moves Move to End Bailout Deadlock. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (June 28 2015, Sunday)

    Reuters

    Greek Parliament gives green light to Tspiras' bailout referendum. finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-parliament-...

    Bloomberg

    Greece Closing Banks as Exposing Bailout Spurs Withdrawal Wave. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-...

    Jul 04 5:48 AM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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