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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (May 5 2015 Tuesday) (II)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (May 5 2015 Tuesday)

    TANER Momentum (DTM) (May 5 2015 Tuesday) (II)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on May 5 2015 Tuesday based upon Closing Prices on May 4, 2015 Monday

    The ETF Model (NYSE:ETM) 5 2015 Tuesday)

    ETF T1 (VTI SPY) A1 (VWO XLF) E1 (VXF PGF) R1 (VDE BWX)

    ETF T2 (VTI SPY) A2 (VXF VWO) E2 (PGF PHB) R2 (VDE BWX).

    ETF T3 (VTI SPY) A3 (VXF VHT) E3 (PZA VPU) R2 (VDE BWX).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    The ETF Model 1-2-3 (VTI SPY VXF VDE BWX) The ETF Model 1-2 (VWO PGF) The ETF Model 1 (NYSEARCA:XLF) The ETF Model 2 (NYSEARCA:PHB) The ETF Model 3 (VHT PZA VPU)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) May 5 2015 Tuesday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VTI VFH) A1 (VXUS VEA) E1 (VXF VTWO) R1 (VSS VDE)

    VANGUARD T2 (VOO VTV) A2 (VB VTWO) E2 (VIG BNDX) R2 (BIV BSV).

    VANGUARD T3 (VOO VYV) A3 (VXF VTWO) E3 (BNDX VCIT) R2 (VEA VSS).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (NASDAQ:VTWO) VANGUARD1-3 (VXF VCEA VSS VSS) VANGUARD 2-3 (VOO VTV BNDX)

    VANGUARD 1 (VTI VFH VXUS VDE) VANGUARD 2 (VB VIG BIV BSV) VANGUARD 3 (NASDAQ:VCIT)

    The Schwab ETF Model (Apr. 27 2015 Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHA SCHM) A1 (SCHE SCHF) E1 (RYF SCHZ) R1 (SCHC RYE)

    SCHWAD:T2 (RSP SCHD) A2 (FNDA SCHR) E2 (RYF SCHD) R2 (SCHF SCHE)

    SCHWAD:T3 ( SCHA RSP) A3 (SCHX SCHP) E3 (SCHR SPLV) R3 (SCHC RYE)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2 (RYF SCHF SCHE) SCHWAB 1-3 (SCHA SCHC RYE) SCHWAB 2-3 (RSP SCHP SCHR) SCHWAB 1 (SCHM SCHZ) SCHWAB 2 (SCHD FNDA) SCHWAB 3 (SCHX SPLV)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (May 4 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (KIE MBB) A1 (MTK XSD) E1 (SHY EDVSHY) R1 (XOP XME)

    ROTATION T2 (KIE MBB) A2 (XRT XBI) E2 (XHB XOP) R2 (EDV LQD).

    ROTATION T3 (KIE MBB) A3 (XBI XSD) E3 (EDV ITM) R (XOP REM).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (KIE MBB EDV XOP) R.TM.1-3 (NYSEARCA:XSD) R.TM.2-3 (NYSEARCA:XBI) R.TM.1 (MTK SHY XME) R.TM.2 (XRT XHB LQD) R.TM.3 (ITM REM)

    The TANER Stock Model (May 4 2015 Monday)

    STOCK T1 (NVR ESRX) A2 (YUM KSU) E1 (CME BA) R1 (SU CAT)

    STOCK T2 (MA ESRX) A2 (AET FDX) E2 (JWN BA) R2 (SU CAT).

    STOCK T3 (NVR ESRX) A3 (MA CME) E3 (BA JWN) R3 (KSU CAT).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (ESRX BA CAT) S.TM.1-2 (NYSE:SU) S.TM.1-3 (NVR CME KSU) S.TM 2-3 (MA JWN) S.TM.1 (NYSE:YUM) S.TM.2 (AET FDX)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    May 05 6:56 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 5 2015, Tuesday)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 5 2015, Tuesday)

    Bloomberg

    EU Raises Growth Outlook as ECB Counters Greek Threat. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-...

    Morningstar

    The Do-It-Yourself Thrift Savings Plan. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Market Watch

    Here's how a stock market sounds when the bubble bursts. www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-a-st...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 4 2015, Monday)

    Bloomberg

    Draghi Starting Euro Bond Buying Turns Out Not to Be One-Dimension. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-...

    Reuters

    German data leads Europe shares higher, dollar steadies. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/04/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0NP00K20150504

    AP

    McDonald's to detail latest turnaround plans. finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-detail-... finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-detail-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 3 2015, Sunday)

    Morningstar

    4 Pressing Topics From The Berkshire Meeting. http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=696158

    The Advantages of Owing Individual Stocks. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=696070

    Market Watch

    Buffett waxes poetic on Clayton, 3G - and his diet. www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-waxes-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 2 2015, Saturday)

    Bloomberg

    Apple and Samsung Are Friendly Again, and the Competition Should Be Terrified. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-...

    Reuters

    U.S. jobs report looms for directionless market. www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/02/us-ma...

    Market Watch

    A bullish argument for stocks turns out to be wrong. www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bullish-argu...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (May 1 2015, Friday)

    Morningstar

    A Hierarchy for Retirement Savings. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Market Watch

    This is a better way to 'sell in May and go away' http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-a-better-way-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2015-04-29

    Bloomberg

    U.S. Stocks Pare Monthly Gain Amid Selloff in Tech, Small-Caps. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-...

    May 05 5:34 AM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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