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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 20 2015, Monday)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 20 2015, Monday)

    Bloomberg

    Euro Area Seeks Greece Roadmap to May Agreement. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-19/euro-area-seeks-greece-roadmap-to-may-agreement-to-avoid-default

    Reuters

    European shares up after China stimulus fails to lift Asia. www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/20/uk-ma...

    Morningstar

    Prepaying a Mortgage Has Payoff For Most, But Not All. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Insecure Securities. http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?submissionid=205820.xml

    Market Watch

    Signs the Markets is girding for a Greek default, in 4 charts. www.marketwatch.com/story/signs-the-mark...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 19 2015, Sunday)

    Reuters

    Another crunch week in Greek bailout saga. www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/19/us-gl...

    Bloomberg

    Draghi Says Urgent Need for Greece to Strike Bailout Deal. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 18 2015, Saturday)

    Bloomberg

    Zhou Says China Has Room for Monetary Easing; May Not Use It. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 17 2015, Friday)

    Reuters

    Global stocks near all-time highs despite Greece drama. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0N801H20150417

    Oil slips below $64 as ample supplies weigh. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/us-markets-oil-idUSKBN0N802J20150417

    Fed may allow banks to use muni bonds to meet liquidity rules: WSJ. www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/17/us-us...

    Morningstar

    Europe Showing Signs of Life. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Market Watch

    This isn't the oil rally you're looking for. www.marketwatch.com/story/this-isnt-the-...

    Bloomberg

    Lagarde Won't Support Greece Missing IMF Payment. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Apr. 16 2015, Thursday)

    Bloomberg

    Economists Have Moved Back Their Fed Rate Hike Guesses in Droves. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-...

    Reuters

    Fed's Lockhart says "murky' data complicates rate hike decision. www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/16/us-us...

    Apr 20 5:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (Apr. 20 2015 Monday) (I)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Apr. 20 2015 Monday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Apr. 20 2015 Monday based upon Closing Prices on Apr. 17 2015 Friday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Apr. 20 2015 Monday)

    ETF:T1 (MDY VHT) A1 (VWO VAW) E1 (QQQ PZA) R1 (VDE BWX)

    ETF T2 (MDY QQQ) A2 (TIP PGF) E2 (VAW PFM) R2 (VNQ BWX).

    ETF T3 (MDY VHT) A3 (VXF VTI) E3 (PZA PFM) R3 (VNQ VDE).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:MDY) E TM. 1-2 (QQQ BWX) E TM. 1-3 (VHT PZA VDE) E TM. 2-3 (PFM VNQ) E.TV 1 (VWO VAW) E.TM.2 (TIP PGF VAW) E.TM.3 (VXF VTI)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) Apr. 13 2015 Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VTWO VXF) A1 (VWO VXUS) E1 (VIG VFH) R1 (VSS VDE)

    VANGUARD T2 (VTI VTV) A2 (VUG VFH) E2 (VCIT VWO) R2 (VEA VSS).

    VANGUARD T3 (VTI BNDX) A3 (VTWO VUG) E3 (VCIT BND) R2 (VEA VXUS).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2 (VFH VWO VANGUARD1-3 (VTWO VXUS) VANGUARD 2-3 (VTI VUG VCIT VEA) VANGUARD 1 (VXF VIG VSS VDE) VVANGUARD 2 (VTV VSS) VANGUARD 3 (BNDX BND)

    The Schwab ETF Model (Apr. 13 2015 Moday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHM SCHX) A1 (SCHA SCHE) E1 (SCHR RYF) R1 (SCHZ RYE)

    SCHWAD:T2 (SCHM FNDX) A2 (SCHA SCHR) E2 (SCHD CVY) R2 (SCHF SCHC)

    SCHWAD:T3 ( SCHX SPLV) A3 (SCHA SCHZ) E3 (SCHR SCHE) R3 (SCHF SCHC)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SCHX SCHA SCHR SCHC) SCHWAB 1-2 (NYSEARCA:SCHM) SCHWAB 1-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHE) SCHWAB 2-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHF) SCHWAB 1 (RYF RYE) SCHWAB 2 (SCHD CVY) SCHWAB 3 (SPLV SCHZ)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Apr. 13 2015 Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (MBB PSK) A1 (XRT XBI) E1 (XHB SHY) R1 (XOP XME)

    ROTATION T2 (NYSEARCA:MBB) KIE A2 (XBI IYH) E2 (XHB GDX) R2 (EDV REM).

    ROTATION T3 (KIE MBB) A3 (XSD XHB) E3 (LQD SHY) R (XOP GDX).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (MBB XHB) R.TM.1-2 (NYSEARCA:XBI) R.TM.1-3 (SHY XOP) R.TM.2-3 (KIE GDX) R.TM.1 (PSK XRT XME) R.TM.2 (IYH EDV REM) R.TM.3 (XSD LQD)

    The TANER Stock Model (Apr. 13 2015 Monday)

    STOCK T1 (AET HD) A2 (NVR YUM) E1 (MA CME)R1 (SU CAT)

    STOCK T2 (AET AMZN) A2 (MA YUM MA) E2 (JWN PH) R2 (CME KSU).

    STOCK T3 (AET ESRX) A3 (AMZN HD) E3 (NKE CAT) R3 (CME BIDU).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (AET CME) S.TM.1-2 (MA YUM) S.TM.1-3 (HD CAT) S.TM.2-3 (NASDAQ:AMZN) S.TM.1 (NVR SU) S.TM.2 (JWN PH KSU) S.TM.3 (ESRX NKE BIDU)

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Apr 19 5:42 PM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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