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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • TANER Momentum (DTM) (Mar. 26 2015 Thursday) (II)

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM]) The TANER Charles Schwab Model (NYSEARCA:TWM), were introduced in my article. Link:seekingalpha.com/article/817551-the-red-...

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Mar 26 2015 Thursday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Mar. 26 2015 Thursday based upon Closing Prices on Mar. 25, Wednesday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Mar. 26 2015 Thursday)

    ETF:T1 (PGF MDY) A1 (VNQ BND) E1 (PFM VAW) R1 (TIP QQQ)

    ETF T2 (PGF VNQ) A2 (VXF VTI) E2 (PFM VPU) R2 (TTIP QQQ).

    ETF T3 (PGF SPYI) A3 (VXF VNQ) E3 XLF (NYSEARCA:PFM) R3 (TIP QQQ).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (VNQ PFM TIP QQQ) E.TM. 1-2 (NYSEARCA:PGF) E.TM. 1-3 (NYSEARCA:MDY) E.TM. 2-3 (NYSEARCA:VXF) E.TV 1 (BND VAW) E.TM.2 (VTI VPU) E.TM.3 (SPY XLF)

    The Vanguard ETF Model (TVM) Mar. 26 2015 Thursday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VUG VXF) A1 VIB (VXF BND E1 (VTI VTV) R1 (VEA VSS)

    VANGUARD T2 (VTWO BNDX) A2 (VUG VOO) E2 (VCIT BND) R2 (VXUS VSS).

    VANGUARD T3 (VTI VFH) A3 (VXF BIV) E3 (VTV VIG) R2 (VEA VSS).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    VANGUARD 1-2-3 (VSS 1-2 (VUG BND 1-3 (VXF) (VANGUARD 1-3 (VTI VXF BIV VTV) VANGUARD 2 (VTWO BNDX VOO VCIT VXUS) VANGUARD 3 (VFH VIG)

    The Schwab ETF Model (TWM) (Mar. 16, Monday)

    SCHWAD:T1 (SCHX SPLV) A1 (SCHA SCHB) E1 (SCHD SCHE) R1 (SCHF SCHC)

    SCHWAD:T2 (FNDA SPLV) A2 (SCHM SCHA) E2 (SCHR SCHE) R2 (SCHF FNDF)

    SCHWAD:T3 (SPLV SCHX) A3 (SCHM SCHA) E3 (FNDX SCHE) R3 (SCHF SCHC)

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    SCHWAB 1-2-3 (SPLV SCHA SCHE SCHF) SCHWAB 1-2 (NYSEARCA:SCHR) SCHWAB 1-3 (SCHX SCHWAB 2-3 (NYSEARCA:SCHM) SCHC) SCHWAB 1 (NYSEARCA:SCHD) SCHWAB 2 (FNDA FNDF) SCHWAB 3 (NYSEARCA:FNDX)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Mar. 23, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (XSD MTK) A1 (XBI KBE) E1 (XHB XOP) R1 (EDV REM)

    ROTATION T2 (MTK KIE) A2 (XHB KBE) E2 (MBB EDV) R2 (XOP REM).

    ROTATION T3 (XSD KCE) A3 (IYH XHB) E3 (KBE XOP) R (EDV SLV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2-3 (XHB KBE XOP EDV) R.TM.1-2 (MTK REM) R.TM.1-3 (NYSEARCA:XSD) R.TM.1 (NYSEARCA:XBI) R.TM.2 (KIE MBB) R.TM.3 (KCE IYH SLV)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (Mar 23, Monday)

    STOCK T1 (JWNAMZN) A2 (CME MA) E1 (YUM PH)R1 (KSU CAT)

    STOCK T2 (JWN ESRX) A2 (CME MA) E2 (FDX BIDU) R2 (KSU CAT).

    STOCK T3 (JWN CME) A3 (NVR BA) E3 (FDX BIDU) R3 (YUM JNJ).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2-3 (JWN CME) S.TM.1-2 (MA KSU CAT) S.TM.1-3 (NYSE:YUM) S.TM.2-3 (FDX BIDU) S.TM.1 (AMZN PH)) S.TM.2 (NASDAQ:ESRX) S.TM.3 (NVR BA JNJ )

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Mar 26 4:46 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 26, 2015, Thursday)

    ABOUT The DMI (Daily Market Information)

    Investing is a zero-sum game, meaning when one guy gains, the other guy must lose. In order to win, what must we do? The DMI might help you to have an edge over the other guys. There is too much market information on SA, TV, Newspapers, magazines, etc. The problem is there is too much info to absorb. That's why DMI is brief and well-selected.

    My focus is primarily on news about two areas: The Fed policy and Business Cycles. These are macro topics. DMI is a summary of what I listen to BBR, and read WSJ, Reuters, Bloomberg, AP, and Barons (weekend) from 5:a.m. to 7:00 a.m. everyday.

    With this information and the RED Spread (introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551) you can grasp the current market situation.

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 26, 2015, Thursday)

    Bloomberg

    A Murky, Sloppy Muddle: How Greece's Exit From Euro Happen. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-...

    Reuters

    Oil surges on Yemen air strike, global stocks tumble. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/26/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0ML2UK20150326

    Market Watch

    ECB lifts ceiling on Greek emergency loans. www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-lifts-ceil...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 25, 2015, Wednesday)

    Bloomberg

    Euro Area Gives Greece Five Days to Deliver Plan. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-...

    Why Traders Are Betting on Strengthening Dollar. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-24...

    Reuters

    Wall Street, dollar slip on U.S. growth worries. www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/25/us-ma...

    U.S. stocks sag as euro equities, dollar gain. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/24/us-markets-global-idUSKBN0MK01320150324

    Market Watch

    Sorry, the Fed won't hold your hand forever. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sorry-the-fed-wont-hold-your-hand-forever-2015-03-24?dist=tbeforebell

    Morningstar

    What Happens When Vanguard Owns Everything. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 24, 2015, Tuesday)

    Bloomberg

    Germany Lifts Euro=Area Economy as Stimulus Plan in Action. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/germany-lifts-euro-area-economy-as-draghi-stimulus-put-in-action

    Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece's Creditors. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-...

    Reuters

    Strong euro zone business data sends euro shares higher. www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/24/us-ma...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 22, 2015, Monday)

    Morningstar

    Small-Cap Indexing: Popularity Can Be a Pain. news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article....

    Market Watch

    Fed statement doesn't rule out lengthy stay at zero, Evans says. www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-statement-...

    The Daily Market Information (DMI) (Mar. 22, 2015, Sunday)

    Bloomberg

    Oil Industry Immediately Challenges First Fracking Rules. www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015...

    Reuters

    U.S. inflation, Greek tensions in focus. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/22/us-global-economy-idUSKBN0MI07520150322

    Market Watch

    IRAs are better than ever for retirement savings. www.marketwatch.com/story/iras-are-bette...

    Mar 26 5:53 AM | Link | Comment!
  • John Bogle On Index Investing

    The following article was posted on November 7, 2014. It was not published on SA because there were somehow some resistance because the portfolio is not only with mutual funds (not with stocks, bonds, and ETFs) but with the traditional (not "smart") index funds.

    How A Portfolio with Dual Controls Made Its Joyful Journey Over The 2014 Mid-October Market Rout, Halloween Surge, and The Election Rally. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/3441995-how-a-portfolio-with-dual-controls-made-its-joyful-journey-over-the-2014-mid-october-market-rout-halloween-surge-and-the-election-rally

    The main focus of this article is an investment strategy with a (passive)Vanguard-Index Portfolio since October.

    One of the fans of this article must be John C. Bogle who is "founder of index-fund giant Vanguard Group and an outspoken advocate for index investing…Fight the urge, Mr. Bogle advises. 'ETFs are fine, so long as you don't trade them,' he says. "But you'll be tempted, usually at a bad time. They're dangerous to your wealth." (By Jonathan Burton of MarketWatch, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4, 2014, Pp. R1-2)

    Mr.Bogle had two interviews with MorningStar. If you are a long-term investor, or an index investor in particular, it is worth viewing the following his interviews. You can get his advices on index investing.

    Bogle: Latest Investor Trends Are Just That - Trends. www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.as...

    Bogle: Little Wiggle Room for Investment Returns. http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=670426

    Nov 22 11:15 AM | Link | 1 Comment
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