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O. Young Kwon's  Instablog

O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (III) (Jan. 23,2012)

    The market cycles are not easy to monitor, but my extensive market experience and analysis can help me to do the pretty good job, by looking closely at inflation expectations, money supply, and various asset valuations. Of course, we cannot time precisely, but six satges are observed:

    U1: Upswing One, bottoming out, focus on individual securities (equities and a few ETFs carefully selected).

    U2: Upswing Two, rapidly advancing, investing more heavily and aggressively

    U3: Upswing Tree, becoming cautiously optimistic, targeting more broad categories of assets.

    D1: Downswing One, defensive., trading less.

    D2: Downswing Two, trading more cautiously in a relatively longer term.

    D3: Downswing Three, investing very selectively in a relatively intermediate term.

    The allocations of capital to a long-run portglio ("Autopilot Portfolio") and Two Trading Accounts, and the allocation to the components of Autopilot Portfolio are:

     

     

    ASSET

    TOTALBOND

    TOTAL STOCK

    EMERG MKT

    BOND ASSETS

    STOCK ASSETS

    YILD %

    2.36%

    2.00%

    1.96%

      

    SYBOL

    VBTLX

    VTSAX

    VEMAX

      

    9/2/2011

    17.1%

    12.3%

    6.2%

    41%

    60%

    9/9/2011

    17.3%

    12.3%

    6.0%

    40%

    60%

    9/16/2011

    16.8%

    12.6%

    5.9%

    38%

    62%

    9/23/2011

    17.7%

    12.3%

    5.4%

    40%

    60%

    9/30/2011

    17.9%

    12.3%

    5.5%

    40%

    60%

    10/7/2011

    17.6%

    12.7%

    5.5%

    43%

    57%

    10/14/2011

    17.7%

    13.0%

    5.8%

    43%

    57%

    10/21/2011

    17.6%

    13.1%

    5.8%

    39%

    62%

    10/28/2011

    18.7%

    15.8%

    7.8%

    39%

    61%

    11/4/2011

    21.1%

    19.6%

    7.8%

    42%

    58%

    11/11/2011

    20.8%

    23.1%

    7.7%

    43%

    57%

    12/16/2011

    21.5%

    22.9%

    7.3%

    45%

    55%

    1/20/2012

    16.5%

    23

    .7%

    7

    .7%

    47%

    53%

     

    AUTOPILOT PORTFOLIO

    If anyone asks me what is the easiest way to set up a reliable portfolio with only three assets, my answer is to go with:

    (a) A tota-bond market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF)

    (b) A total-stock market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF)

    (c) An emerging market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. VWO (Vanguard Emerging Market ETF)

    Since mutual funds within Vanguard, for instance, can exchange one to the other with free, Vanguard mutual funds of these three Vanguard ETFs are selected in my Autopilot Portfolio. In adddtion to these three mutual funds, other mutual funds (three to nine) are added. Currently the portfolio contains seven funds. My Income Portfolio shows most of them. The current market stage is U3 so that the portfolio has consolidated in a smaller number of funds which have more broader aeet categories.

     

    Daily TANER Mometums (DTMs) are a summary of all betting in the market (including yours and mine) at any specific day (e.g. 1/3/2011). This information is only ONE "cross-section-data" set, based upon the closing prices. All prices changes in extra hours (4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) and in extended hours (8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.) are excluded.. A single point datum is weak to predict future. That's why the TANER Momentum Trend (TMT) is introduced.

    Following TMTs for a longer period of time, we can adjust (a) our asset allocations between equities and bonds or (b) our income portfolio. Or we can get an idea to determine which securities buy, sell, or hold. (See "How to Use the TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)".)

    Autopilot Protfolio has reflected the following TMTs of BND, VTI, and VWO.

     

     

      

    1-2-3 M

     

    WEEK

    BND

    VTI

    VWO

     

    TOTALBOND

    TOTAL STOCK

    EMERGING MKT

    9/27-10/3

    15

    5

    3

    10/4-10/10

    14

    6

    5

    10/11-10/17

    11

    5

    4

    10/18-10/24

    10

    11

    1

    10/25-10/31

    8

    7

    1

    11/1-11/7

    6

    10

    4

    11/8-11/14

    4

    11

    1

    11/15-11/21

    7

    10

    4

    11/22-11/28

    8

    11

    2

    11/29-12/5

    8

    12

    2

    12/6-12/12

    0

    15

    1

    12/13-12/19

    4

    9

    1

    12/20-12/27

    3

    6

    3

    12/28-1/3

    1

    6

    0

    1/4-1/9

    1

    4

    0

    1/10-1/17

    2

    4

    3

    1/18-1/23

    5

    5

    1

    TOTAL

    107

    137

    36

    Feb 12 5:41 PM | Link | Comment!
  • The TANER Momentum Trend (TMT) (Jan. 4, 2012 to Jan. 17, 2012)

    Daily TANER Mometums (DTMs) are posted on my Instablog everyday through Jan. 4, 2012 to Jan. 17, 2012. Each TM is a snapshots at 4:00 p.m. of their previous day. For example, the 12/13/2010 listing (started on SA) was based upon the closing prices at 4:00 p.m. of 12/10/2010.

    You can check these tables with your holdings or your buy/sell/exchange shopping lists. I hope you can get some insights from them Compiling these lists sequentially, as shown below, we can covert the lists (‘cross-section data") to "time series." This is not numerical, but with stock symbols. We call it the TANER Momentum Trend (TMT).

    ETF

     

    one-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    T1

    T1

    A1

    A1

    E1

    E1

    R1

    R1

    1/4/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VNQ

    VHT

    BND

    MDY

    XLF

    BWX

    1/5/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    DIA

    VNQ

    SPY

    MDY

    VAW

    BWX

    1/6/2012

    QQQ

    TIP

    VNQ

    VHT

    SPY

    VDE

    XLF

    BWX

    1/9/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VHT

    VNQ

    SPY

    VDE

    PGF

    VAW

    1/10/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VHT

    VNQ

    SPY

    VWO

    PGF

    VXF

    1/11/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VHT

    VNQ

    BND

    VDE

    PGF

    VAW

    1/12/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VHT

    VNQ

    VPU

    SPY

    VAW

    XLF

    1/13/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VAW

    VXF

    BND

    VPU

    MDY

    XLF

    1/17/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VNQ

    VAW

    VPU

    PHB

    VXF

    XLF

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    ETF

     

    two-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    T2

    T2

    A2

    A2

    E2

    E2

    R2

    R2

    1/4/2012

    PZA

    QQQ

    PFM

    VHT

    VDE

    MDY

    VTI

    BWX

    1/5/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    DIA

    VHT

    VDE

    MDY

    VTI

    BWX

    1/6/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    DIA

    VHT

    VDE

    MDY

    VTI

    VNQ

    1/9/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    DIA

    VHT

    VDE

    MDY

    VTI

    PGF

    1/10/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    PHB

    VDE

    VWO

    VTI

    PGF

    1/11/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    VDE

    VNQ

    PGF

    1/12/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    VDE

    PGF

    XLF

    1/13/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    VDE

    PGF

    XLF

    1/17/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    PHB

    SPY

    MDY

    PGF

    XLF

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    ETF

     

    three-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    T3

    T3

    A3

    A3

    E3

    E3

    R3

    R3

    1/4/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    SPY

    VNQ

    BND

    PGF

    VDE

    VAW

    1/5/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    DIA

    VDE

    PGF

    BWX

    VTI

    VNQ

    1/6/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    DIA

    SPY

    PGF

    VWO

    VNQ

    VTI

    1/9/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    DIA

    VNQ

    VWO

    BWX

    VTI

    VAW

    1/10/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    DIA

    VHT

    VWO

    BWX

    VTI

    VAW

    1/11/2012

    PZA

    TIP

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    BWX

    VNW

    VAW

    1/12/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    VNQ

    SPY

    MDY

    VTI

    XLF

    1/13/2012

    PZA

    QQQ

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    MDY

    VAW

    XLF

    1/17/2012

    TIP

    QQQ

    VHT

    VTI

    SPY

    MDY

    VAW

    XLF

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    STOCK

     

    one-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    T1

    T1

    A1

    A1

    E1

    E1

    R1

    R1

    1/4/2012

    NKE

    DLTR

    NUS

    BA

    PH

    AMZN

    NVR

    BAC

    1/5/2012

    KSU

    DLTR

    PX

    KO

    PRGO

    BIDU

    NVR

    BAC

    1/6/2012

    CMG

    DLTR

    AET

    KO

    MA

    BIDU

    NVR

    BAC

    1/9/2012

    YUM

    DLTR

    ISRG

    BA

    IBM

    FCX

    DE

    BAC

    1/10/2012

    YUM

    CMG

    KSU

    BA

    MA

    FCX

    ESRX

    BAC

    1/11/2012

    NKE

    CMG

    KSU

    BA

    MA

    EDU

    DE

    BAC

    1/12/2012

    NKE

    DLTR

    KSU

    DE

    NUS

    AMZN

    LIFE

    BAC

    1/13/2012

    NKE

    DLTR

    KSU

    CAT

    MA

    AMZN

    LIFE

    BAC

    1/17/2012

    CMG

    DLTR

    KSU

    NVR

    MA

    AMZN

    ESRX

    BAC

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    STOCK

     

    two-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    T2

    T2

    A2

    A2

    E2

    E2

    R2

    R2

    1/4/2012

    AGN

    NKE

    HD

    BA

    JWN

    EDU

    NVR

    CME

    1/5/2012

    CMG

    NUS

    WMT

    BA

    JWN

    BIDU

    NVR

    CME

    1/6/2012

    CMG

    NUS

    PRGO

    BA

    PH

    AMZN

    NVR

    LIFE

    1/9/2012

    YUM

    AGN

    ISRG

    NVR

    MA

    AMZN

    DE

    BAC

    1/10/2012

    NKE

    CMG

    AET

    NVR

    JWN

    BIDU

    DE

    BAC

    1/11/2012

    NKE

    CMG

    AET

    BA

    JWN

    BIDU

    NVR

    BAC

    1/12/2012

    NKE

    CMG

    KSU

    BA

    MA

    EDU

    DE

    BAC

    1/13/2012

    NKE

    CMG

    HD

    NVR

    PH

    BEN

    FLS

    BAC

    1/17/2012

    CMG

    AET

    KFT

    NVR

    JWN

    BIDU

    FLS

    BAC

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    STOCK

     

    three-month term

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    DATE

    DATE

    T3

    A3

    A3

    A3

    E3

    R3

    R3

    1/4/2012

    AGN

    AGN

    HD

    AET

    JWN

    AMZN

    FLS

    BAC

    1/5/2012

    CMG

    DLTR

    WMT

    NUS

    JNJ

    AMZN

    FLS

    LIFE

    1/6/2012

    CMG

    AGN

    NUS

    AET

    ESRX

    AMZN

    FLS

    LIFE

    1/9/2012

    NKE

    JWN

    AET

    NUS

    JNJ

    AMZN

    FLS

    BAC

    1/10/2012

    NKE

    AGN

    AET

    NUS

    JNJ

    AMZN

    FLS

    BAC

    1/11/2012

    NKE

    AGN

    KSU

    PRGO

    JWN

    EDU

    FLS

    BEN

    1/12/2012

    NKE

    DLTR

    KSU

    BA

    JWN

    BIDU

    FLS

    BAC

    1/13/2012

    NKE

    PX

    KSU

    BA

    JWN

    BIDU

    FLS

    BAC

    1/17/2012

    NKE

    PX

    KSU

    BA

    MA

    BIDU

    FLS

    FCX

    Jan 15 11:10 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    Trade cycle decleases while life cycle increases. How many days between buy dates and sell dates of our trades are trade cycles which tent to shrink recently. If trade cycles become zero, we call them daytrades.

    Daytrade was so popular several years ago. It was a fad in the investor world: Many naive ambitious traders sat on computers, and trades all day. They were misguiided by seminars and gurus with fancy charts and track records. Most daytraders ended up loosing their lifetime savings.

    Daytrades in this post are quite different in their features. They are simply byproducts of daily tradings to follow the TANER Momentums or to make gains in a very near term with some Leveraged ETFs/ETNs.

    This year 43 daytrades have been made. The average profit was 1.6% and the average two-way commissions was just $3.63. The follwong two tables show the results.

    Daytrading (2011) Sotrted by Trade Date

    SYMB

    B DATE

    B PRICE

    S DATE

    S PRICE

    COMM

    G/(L) %

    #DAY

    CMG

    1/13/2011

    221.00

    1/13/2011

    227.05

    $0.00

    2.7%

    0

    BIDU

    2/7/2011

    118.75

    2/7/2011

    119.62

    $5.90

    0.5%

    0

    CENX

    2/16/2011

    16.68

    2/16/2011

    17.42

    $5.90

    4.1%

    0

    VXX

    2/28/2011

    30.09

    2/28/2011

    30.27

    $5.90

    0.3%

    0

    XIV

    3/7/2011

    127.79

    3/7/2011

    130.29

    $5.90

    1.6%

    0

    NFLX

    3/28/2011

    239.80

    3/28/2011

    239.92

    $5.60

    0.0%

    0

    BIDU

    6/2/2011

    132.81

    6/2/2011

    137.53

    $0.00

    3.6%

    0

    SSO

    6/23/2011

    48.93

    6/23/2011

    49.58

    $0.00

    1.3%

    0

    UYG

    6/23/2011

    58.55

    6/23/2011

    58.95

    $0.00

    0.7%

    0

    CMG

    8/9/2011

    295.00

    8/9/2011

    301.06

    $0.00

    2.1%

    0

    MCD

    8/9/2011

    84.28

    8/9/2011

    85.96

    $0.00

    2.0%

    0

    NFLX

    8/9/2011

    231.35

    8/9/2011

    237.00

    $0.00

    2.4%

    0

    MDY

    8/11/2011

    146.98

    8/11/2011

    150.51

    $0.00

    2.4%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.13

    $4.92

    0.1%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.13

    $2.45

    0.1%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    87.01

    8/17/2011

    87.48

    $4.92

    0.3%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.48

    $2.46

    0.5%

    0

    DLTR

    8/18/2011

    62.51

    8/18/2011

    64.46

    $5.90

    2.8%

    0

    VNQ

    8/24/2011

    54.44

    8/24/2011

    55.25

    $5.90

    1.1%

    0

    YUM

    8/26/2011

    51.68

    8/26/2011

    52.88

    $5.90

    1.9%

    0

    CMG

    10/4/2011

    287.10

    10/4/2011

    299.95

    $0.00

    4.5%

    0

    CMG

    10/21/2011

    319.40

    10/21/2011

    328.55

    $0.00

    2.9%

    0

    NFLX

    10/25/2011

    75.00

    10/25/2011

    77.64

    $5.90

    3.0%

    0

    DIA

    10/27/2011

    120.69

    10/27/2011

    121.46

    $5.90

    0.1%

    0

    BEN

    11/3/2011

    104.55

    11/3/2011

    106.67

    $0.00

    2.0%

    0

    WMT

    11/8/2011

    58.05

    11/8/2011

    59.34

    $0.00

    2.2%

    0

    AMZN

    11/11/2011

    212.25

    11/11/2011

    217.27

    $5.90

    1.9%

    0

    FAS

    11/15/2011

    62.83

    11/15/2011

    65.23

    $5.90

    3.3%

    0

    UPRO

    11/16/2011

    59.19

    11/16/2011

    60.75

    $5.90

    2.1%

    0

    DDM

    11/21/2011

    53.17

    11/21/2011

    53.88

    $5.90

    0.9%

    0

    UWM

    11/25/2011

    28.89

    11/25/2011

    29.45

    $5.90

    1.4%

    0

    AMZN

    12/1/2011

    191.25

    12/1/2011

    197.16

    $0.00

    3.1%

    0

    IBM

    12/6/2011

    190.82

    12/6/2011

    193.31

    $5.90

    0.9%

    0

    AMZN

    12/7/2011

    191.19

    12/7/2011

    194.35

    $0.00

    1.6%

    0

    BEN

    12/9/2011

    97.10

    12/9/2011

    98.74

    $5.90

    1.3%

    0

    JPM

    12/9/2011

    32.59

    12/9/2011

    33.15

    $5.90

    1.3%

    0

    UPRO

    12/12/2011

    56.45

    12/12/2011

    57.11

    $0.00

    1.2%

    0

    TVIX

    12/13/2011

    40.77

    12/13/2011

    43.38

    $5.90

    5.9%

    0

    TVIX

    12/16/2011

    37.18

    12/16/2011

    37.61

    $5.90

    0.6%

    0

    TVIX

    12/19/2011

    37.91

    12/19/2011

    38.70

    $5.90

    1.6%

    0

    FAS

    12/20/2011

    57.25

    12/20/2011

    59.22

    $5.90

    2.9%

    0

    PRGO

    12/23/2011

    100.28

    12/23/2011

    101.00

    $5.90

    0.2%

    0

    BEN

    12/29/2012

    94.61

    12/29/2012

    95.83

    $5.90

    0.8%

    0

            
     

    TOTAL

    43

    TRADES

    AVG

    $3.63

    1.8%

    0

     

    Daytrading (2011) Sotrted by Ticker Symbol

    SYMB

    B DATE

    B PRICE

    S DATE

    S PRICE

    COMM

    G/(L) %

    #DAY

    AMZN

    11/11/2011

    212.25

    11/11/2011

    217.27

    $5.90

    1.9%

    0

    AMZN

    12/1/2011

    191.25

    12/1/2011

    197.16

    $0.00

    3.1%

    0

    AMZN

    12/7/2011

    191.19

    12/7/2011

    194.35

    $0.00

    1.6%

    0

    BEN

    12/9/2011

    97.10

    12/9/2011

    98.74

    $5.90

    1.3%

    0

    BEN

    11/3/2011

    104.55

    11/3/2011

    106.67

    $0.00

    2.0%

    0

    BEN

    12/29/2012

    94.61

    12/29/2012

    95.83

    $5.90

    0.8%

    0

    BIDU

    2/7/2011

    118.75

    2/7/2011

    119.62

    $5.90

    0.5%

    0

    BIDU

    6/2/2011

    132.81

    6/2/2011

    137.53

    $0.00

    3.6%

    0

    CENX

    2/16/2011

    16.68

    2/16/2011

    17.42

    $5.90

    4.1%

    0

    CMG

    1/13/2011

    221.00

    1/13/2011

    227.05

    $0.00

    2.7%

    0

    CMG

    8/9/2011

    295.00

    8/9/2011

    301.06

    $0.00

    2.1%

    0

    CMG

    10/4/2011

    287.10

    10/4/2011

    299.95

    $0.00

    4.5%

    0

    CMG

    10/21/2011

    319.40

    10/21/2011

    328.55

    $0.00

    2.9%

    0

    DDM

    11/21/2011

    53.17

    11/21/2011

    53.88

    $5.90

    0.9%

    0

    DIA

    10/27/2011

    120.69

    10/27/2011

    121.46

    $5.90

    0.1%

    0

    DLTR

    8/18/2011

    62.51

    8/18/2011

    64.46

    $5.90

    2.8%

    0

    FAS

    11/15/2011

    62.83

    11/15/2011

    65.23

    $5.90

    3.3%

    0

    FAS

    12/20/2011

    57.25

    12/20/2011

    59.22

    $5.90

    2.9%

    0

    IBM

    12/6/2011

    190.82

    12/6/2011

    193.31

    $5.90

    0.9%

    0

    JPM

    12/9/2011

    32.59

    12/9/2011

    33.15

    $5.90

    1.3%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.13

    $4.92

    0.1%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.13

    $2.45

    0.1%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    87.01

    8/17/2011

    87.48

    $4.92

    0.3%

    0

    MCD

    8/17/2011

    86.84

    8/17/2011

    87.48

    $2.46

    0.5%

    0

    MCD

    8/9/2011

    84.28

    8/9/2011

    85.96

    $0.00

    2.0%

    0

    MDY

    8/11/2011

    146.98

    8/11/2011

    150.51

    $0.00

    2.4%

    0

    NFLX

    3/28/2011

    239.80

    3/28/2011

    239.92

    $5.60

    0.0%

    0

    NFLX

    10/25/2011

    75.00

    10/25/2011

    77.64

    $5.90

    3.0%

    0

    NFLX

    8/9/2011

    231.35

    8/9/2011

    237.00

    $0.00

    2.4%

    0

    PRGO

    12/23/2011

    100.28

    12/23/2011

    101.00

    $5.90

    0.2%

    0

    SSO

    6/23/2011

    48.93

    6/23/2011

    49.58

    $0.00

    1.3%

    0

    TVIX

    12/13/2011

    40.77

    12/13/2011

    43.38

    $5.90

    5.9%

    0

    TVIX

    12/16/2011

    37.18

    12/16/2011

    37.61

    $5.90

    0.6%

    0

    TVIX

    12/19/2011

    37.91

    12/19/2011

    38.70

    $5.90

    1.6%

    0

    UPRO

    11/16/2011

    59.19

    11/16/2011

    60.75

    $5.90

    2.1%

    0

    UPRO

    12/12/2011

    56.45

    12/12/2011

    57.11

    $0.00

    1.2%

    0

    UWM

    11/25/2011

    28.89

    11/25/2011

    29.45

    $5.90

    1.4%

    0

    UYG

    6/23/2011

    58.55

    6/23/2011

    58.95

    $0.00

    0.7%

    0

    VNQ

    8/24/2011

    54.44

    8/24/2011

    55.25

    $5.90

    1.1%

    0

    VXX

    2/28/2011

    30.09

    2/28/2011

    30.27

    $5.90

    0.3%

    0

    WMT

    11/8/2011

    58.05

    11/8/2011

    59.34

    $0.00

    2.2%

    0

    XIV

    3/7/2011

    127.79

    3/7/2011

    130.29

    $5.90

    1.6%

    0

    YUM

    8/26/2011

    51.68

    8/26/2011

    52.88

    $5.90

    1.9%

    0

            
     

    TOTAL

    43

    TRADES

    AVG

    $3.63

    1.8%

    0

    Jan 01 6:12 AM | Link | Comment!
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