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O. Young Kwon
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O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. in Economics had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. He taught Macroeconomics and Statistics. Prior to his academic career, he was an Economist/Bank Supervisor at the Bank of Korea (the Fed's counterpart). In 2009 he set up the... More
  • The Daily TANER Momentum

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM), The TANER Stock Model (NYSE:TSM), The TANER Rotation Model (TRM), and The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM), were introduced in my article. Link: www.seekingalpha.com/article/817551

    The Daily TANER Momentum (DTM) (Jan. 29, Wednesday)

    TANER Momentum ™ List on Jan. 29, Wednesday) based upon Closing Prices on Jan. 28, Tuesday

    The TANER ETF Model (TEM) (Jan. 29, Wednesday)

    ETF:T1 (QQQ VTI) A1 (VHT PFM) E1 (VDE VWO) R1 (PGF VNQ)

    ETF T2 (VHT VTI) A2 (MDY VAW) E2 (VDE VWO) R2 (PGF VNQ).

    ETF T3 (QQQ SPY) A3 (MDY XLF) E3 (PHB BWX) R3 (PZA PGF).

    SUMMARY OF THE TEM

    E.TM. 1-2-3 (NYSEARCA:PGF) E.TM. 1-2 (VHT VTI VDC VWO VNQ) E.TM. 1-3 (NASDAQ:QQQ) E.TM. 2-3 (NYSEARCA:MDY) E TM. 1 (NYSEARCA:PFM) E.TM. 2 (NYSEARCA:VAW) E.TM. 3 (SPY XLF PHB BWX PZA)

    The TANER Stock Model (TSM) (Jan. 28, Tuesday)

    STOCK T1 (NFLX AMZN) A2 (ESRX KRFT) E1 (FCX YUM) R1 (BEN ISRG)

    STOCK T2 (LIFE BAC) A2 (AGN EDU) E2 (NKE YUM) R2 (CAT IBM).

    STOCK T3 (LIFE CMG) A3 (AGN EDU) E3 (FCX KSU) R3 (NUS IBM).

    SUMMARY OF THE TSM

    S.TM.1-2 (NYSE:YUM) S.TM.1-3 (NYSE:FCX) S.TM.2-3 (LIFT AGN EDU IBM) S.TM.1 (NFLX AMZN ESRX KRFT BEN ISRG) S.TM.2 (BAC NKE CAT) S.TM.3 (CMG KSU NUS)

    The TANER Rotation Model (TRM) (Jan. 27, Monday)

    ROTATION:T1 (MTK VCR) A1 (XPH ITM) E1 (KIE PCY) R1 (EDV REM)

    ROTATION T2 (XPH IYH) A (KCE XME) E2 (VDC IPE) R2 (HYG RWR).

    ROTATION T3 (MTK XSD) A3 (KIE XRT) E3 (VOX REM) R (XES PSK).

    SUMMARY OF THE TRM

    R.TM.1-2 (NYSEARCA:XPH) R.TM.1-3 (MTK KIE REM) R.TM.1 (VCR ITM PCY EDV) R.TM.2 (IYH KCE XME VDC IPE HYG RWR) R.TM.3 (XSD XRT VOX XES PSK)

    The TANER Vanguard Model (TVM) (Jan. 27, Monday)

    VANGUARD T1 (VXF VTI) A1 (VHT VSS) E1 (VAW VDC) R1 (EDV VNQ)

    VANGUARD T2 (VEU VEA) A2 (VIS VAW) E2 (VHT VDC) R2 (VWO VNQ).

    VANGUARD T3 (VXF VEU) A3(VIS VCR) E3 (VOX VDC) R3 (VAW EDV).

    SUMMARY OF THE TVM

    V.TM.1-2-3 (VDC VAW) TM.1-2 (VHT VNQ) V.TM.1-3 (VXF EDV) V.TM.2-3 (VEU VIS) V.TM.1 (VTI VSS) V.TM.2 (VEA VWO) V.TM.2 (VCR VOX)

    Link: www.seekingalpha.com/instablog/791632-o-young-kwon/1111541-the-taner-data. You can get the names of securities with the ticker symbol in The TEM, The TSM, The TRM, and The TVM...

    Note:

    T (Topping): Leading Leaders.(LDLD)

    A (Advancing): Lagging Leaders (LGLD)

    E (Emerging): Leading Laggards (LDLG)

    R (Reversing): Lagging Laggards.(LGLG)

    The numbers in parentheses (1-2-3) are one-month, two-month, and three-month terms.

    The overall markets (DJIA, S&P 500, or NASDAQ) have their cycles. Individual securities (ETFs or Stocks) have also their own cycles given the market cycles. In general, all securities in The TANER System (20 ETFs and 40 stocks) show their own cycles from R to E to A to T to R and so on, but majority securities (60% of ETFs and 80% of stocks are in N (Neutral, meaning residual). Therefore all securities do not show any pattern. When any of your holding has T or R momentum, you pay your particular attention.

    Introduction

    O. Young Kwon, NYU Ph.D. (Economics) had worked in securities industry for ten years as a Registered Investment Adviser. In 2009 he set up the TANER System in order to synthesize performances and relative strengths of 20 ETFs and 40 equities thoroughly. The System captures dynamics of momentum changes of individual securities on the daily basis. The System also builds successfully their momentum trends over time.

    How to Use TANER Momentum (NYSE:TM)

    Every marketday buys, sells, or exchanges (among mutual funds) can be made by TM. All trades except exchanges are posted on StockTalks to share these trades with you. For options players (for me options are excluded) call/put positions can be taken. My experience for three years propose following two Risk/Reward Tables: The Long-Term RR (LTRR) Table and The Short-Term RR (STRR) Table. . Please use this as a guide.

    LTRR (For Long-Term Investors)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    LOWER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    LOW

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    HIGH

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    HIGHER

    Try Advancing (NYSE:A) and Emerging (NYSE:E) TM.

    STRR (For Near-Term Traders)

    TANER

    RISK

    REWARD

    T (TOPPING)

    HIGHER

    HIGHER

    A (ADVANCING)

    HIGH

    HIGH

    n (neutral)

    average

    average

    E (EMERGING)

    LOW

    LOW

    R (REVERSING)

    LOWER

    LOWER

    Try Advancing (A) or Topping (NYSE:T) TM. When a very near term (i.e. daytrading), Topping (T) TM.

    What for R (Reversing)? These TM are useful either for your exits of any holding or your bets in a stable upswing. Sometime R gives you a big gain.

    T (Topping) sometimes help you to take gains with the intraday 5%+ rule.

    Related Instablogs

    Go TANER: The Market Primer

    Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (NYSE:I)

    Income Portfolio: TANER APP (II)

    The Tiger Rule: TANER APP (NASDAQ:III)

    Daytrading: TANER APP (IV)

    The TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)

    Dec 24 6:16 PM | Link | 6 Comments
  • THE TANER DATA

    The DATA of The TANER ETF Model [TEM] (20), The TANER Stock Model [TSM] (40), and The TANER Vanguard Model [TVM] (20)

     

     

    The TANER DATA
    The TEM (20)
    Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VTI)Vanguard Materials ETF (NYSEARCA:VAW)
    SPDR S&P 500 Index ETF(NYSEARCA:SPY)Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO)
    SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA)Power Shares Dividend Achievers (NYSEARCA:PFM)
    Vanguard Extended Market ETF (NYSEARCA:VXF)Vanguard Utilities ETF (NYSEARCA:VPU)
    SPDR S&P Midcap 400 Index ETF(NYSEARCA:MDY)Power Shares Fin. Preferred Port. ETF(NYSEARCA:PGF)
    Power Shares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ)Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NYSEARCA:BND)
    Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF(NYSEARCA:XLF)i Shares Barclays TIPS Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TIP)
    Vanguard Health Care ETF (NYSEARCA:VHT)Power Shares Insured Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:PZA)
    Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:VDE)Power Shares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:PHB)
    Vanguard REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:VNQ)SPDR Barclays Capital Intl Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:BWX)
    The TSM (40)
    Boeing (NYSE:BA)Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX)
    Bank of America (BOA)FreeP't McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE:FCX)
    Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)FedEx (NYSE:FDX)
    Home Depot (NYSE:HD)Flowserve (NYSE:FLS)
    Intl Business Machines (NYSE:IBM)Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG)
    Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)Joy Global (NYSE:JOY)
    Kraft Foods (KFT)Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN)
    Coca Cola (NYSE:KO)Kansas City Southern (NYSE:KSU)
    McDonald's (NYSE:MCD)Life Technologies(Pending:LIFE)
    Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WMT)MasterCard (NYSE:MA)
    Aetna (NYSE:AET)Mosaic (NYSE:MOS)
    Allergan (NYSE:AGN)Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)
    Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)Nike (NYSE:NKE)
    Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN)Nu Skin (NYSE:NUS)
    Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU)NVR, Inc. (NYSE:NVR), homebuilder
    CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)Parker-Hannafin (NYSE:PH)
    Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG)Perrigo (NYSE:PRGO)
    Deere (NYSE:DE)Praxair (NYSE:PX)
    Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR)Suncor Energy (NYSE:SU)
    Oriental Education & Tech (NYSE:EDU)Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM)
    The TVM (20)
    Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSEARCA:EDV)
    Vanguard Mortgage Backed Securities ETF (NASDAQ:VMBS)Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)
    Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT)Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU)
    Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (NYSEARCA:VDC)Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (NYSEARCA:VOX)
    Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (NYSEARCA:VYM)Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW)
    Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)
    Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF)Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
    Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:VCR)Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEARCA:VEA)
    Vanguard Industrials ETF (NYSEARCA:VIS)Vanguard Financials ETF (NYSEARCA:VFH)
    Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US ETF (NYSEARCA:VEU)Vanguard FTSE All world ex-US S-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:VSS)
    The TRM (40) (Partial Listing)
    i Shares 1-3 Year Credit Bonds ETF(NYSEARCA:CSJ)Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF (VCR)
    i Shares NAREIT Mortgage ETF(NYSEARCA:REM)Vanguard Communication Services ETF(VOX)
    i Shares Corporate Bonds ETF(NYSEARCA:LQD)Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC)
    Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(NYSEARCA:GDX)Wisdom Tree Emerging Market Local Deb ETF (NYSEARCA:ELD)
    SPDR Insurance ETF (NYSEARCA:KIE)Vanguard MSCI EAFE ETF (VEA)
    SPDR Biotech ETF (NYSEARCA:XBI)SPDR Wells Fargo Preferred (NYSEARCA:PSK)
    SPDR DJ Willshire REIT (NYSEARCA:RWR)i Shares High Yield Corp Bonds (NYSEARCA:HYG)
    SPDR Capital Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:KCE)SPDR Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT)
    Market Vectors Municipals ETF (NYSEARCA:ITM)
    Nov 01 5:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Autopilot Portfolio: TANER APP (III) (Jan. 23,2012)

    The market cycles are not easy to monitor, but my extensive market experience and analysis can help me to do the pretty good job, by looking closely at inflation expectations, money supply, and various asset valuations. Of course, we cannot time precisely, but six satges are observed:

    U1: Upswing One, bottoming out, focus on individual securities (equities and a few ETFs carefully selected).

    U2: Upswing Two, rapidly advancing, investing more heavily and aggressively

    U3: Upswing Tree, becoming cautiously optimistic, targeting more broad categories of assets.

    D1: Downswing One, defensive., trading less.

    D2: Downswing Two, trading more cautiously in a relatively longer term.

    D3: Downswing Three, investing very selectively in a relatively intermediate term.

    The allocations of capital to a long-run portglio ("Autopilot Portfolio") and Two Trading Accounts, and the allocation to the components of Autopilot Portfolio are:

     

     

    ASSET

    TOTALBOND

    TOTAL STOCK

    EMERG MKT

    BOND ASSETS

    STOCK ASSETS

    YILD %

    2.36%

    2.00%

    1.96%

      

    SYBOL

    VBTLX

    VTSAX

    VEMAX

      

    9/2/2011

    17.1%

    12.3%

    6.2%

    41%

    60%

    9/9/2011

    17.3%

    12.3%

    6.0%

    40%

    60%

    9/16/2011

    16.8%

    12.6%

    5.9%

    38%

    62%

    9/23/2011

    17.7%

    12.3%

    5.4%

    40%

    60%

    9/30/2011

    17.9%

    12.3%

    5.5%

    40%

    60%

    10/7/2011

    17.6%

    12.7%

    5.5%

    43%

    57%

    10/14/2011

    17.7%

    13.0%

    5.8%

    43%

    57%

    10/21/2011

    17.6%

    13.1%

    5.8%

    39%

    62%

    10/28/2011

    18.7%

    15.8%

    7.8%

    39%

    61%

    11/4/2011

    21.1%

    19.6%

    7.8%

    42%

    58%

    11/11/2011

    20.8%

    23.1%

    7.7%

    43%

    57%

    12/16/2011

    21.5%

    22.9%

    7.3%

    45%

    55%

    1/20/2012

    16.5%

    23

    .7%

    7

    .7%

    47%

    53%

     

    AUTOPILOT PORTFOLIO

    If anyone asks me what is the easiest way to set up a reliable portfolio with only three assets, my answer is to go with:

    (a) A tota-bond market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF)

    (b) A total-stock market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF)

    (c) An emerging market ETF (or mutual fund), e.g.. VWO (Vanguard Emerging Market ETF)

    Since mutual funds within Vanguard, for instance, can exchange one to the other with free, Vanguard mutual funds of these three Vanguard ETFs are selected in my Autopilot Portfolio. In adddtion to these three mutual funds, other mutual funds (three to nine) are added. Currently the portfolio contains seven funds. My Income Portfolio shows most of them. The current market stage is U3 so that the portfolio has consolidated in a smaller number of funds which have more broader aeet categories.

     

    Daily TANER Mometums (DTMs) are a summary of all betting in the market (including yours and mine) at any specific day (e.g. 1/3/2011). This information is only ONE "cross-section-data" set, based upon the closing prices. All prices changes in extra hours (4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.) and in extended hours (8:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.) are excluded.. A single point datum is weak to predict future. That's why the TANER Momentum Trend (TMT) is introduced.

    Following TMTs for a longer period of time, we can adjust (a) our asset allocations between equities and bonds or (b) our income portfolio. Or we can get an idea to determine which securities buy, sell, or hold. (See "How to Use the TMT (TANER Momentum Trend)".)

    Autopilot Protfolio has reflected the following TMTs of BND, VTI, and VWO.

     

     

      

    1-2-3 M

     

    WEEK

    BND

    VTI

    VWO

     

    TOTALBOND

    TOTAL STOCK

    EMERGING MKT

    9/27-10/3

    15

    5

    3

    10/4-10/10

    14

    6

    5

    10/11-10/17

    11

    5

    4

    10/18-10/24

    10

    11

    1

    10/25-10/31

    8

    7

    1

    11/1-11/7

    6

    10

    4

    11/8-11/14

    4

    11

    1

    11/15-11/21

    7

    10

    4

    11/22-11/28

    8

    11

    2

    11/29-12/5

    8

    12

    2

    12/6-12/12

    0

    15

    1

    12/13-12/19

    4

    9

    1

    12/20-12/27

    3

    6

    3

    12/28-1/3

    1

    6

    0

    1/4-1/9

    1

    4

    0

    1/10-1/17

    2

    4

    3

    1/18-1/23

    5

    5

    1

    TOTAL

    107

    137

    36

    Feb 12 5:41 PM | Link | Comment!
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