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Ocean Man

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  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    I don't know, I don't trade pink sheets.
    Apr 23 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    I'd do all or nothing on a small position.
    Apr 23 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Once I decide I want to buy a stock, I'll usually put in a bid below the current price and see if it fills over the next few minutes. I'll watch the real-time charts on Yahoo to see every trade within the 1-minute daily chart, I'll watch the day's range on the Yahoo quote page, and I'll watch the bid and ask change on my broker's website. Then I'll move my bid up when the time is right.

    And I use daily for charts longer than 5 days to build a thesis.
    Apr 23 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Warren's first sentence declares that he's talking about investing. Ashraf's example and most of what I do is trading. The long-term end of trading starts to blur with the short-term end of investing, but for the most part they don't follow the same rules, although they may share some targets.
    Apr 23 08:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Those of you who follow my Stocktalks probably noticed that I sold my four "pillars" as they achieved the 8% gain I said I was looking for:

    Sold KMI for a gain of 8.1% in 1 month.
    Sold APU for a gain of 8% in 6 weeks.
    Sold 1/2 of AVB for a gain of 10.7% in 3 months.
    Sold 1/2 of BRK.B for a gain of 12.5% in 2 months.
    Avg: +9.8% in less than 2 months.

    Those are some big gains on large positions in a short amount of time, especially considering that the S&P is only up 2.6% year-to-date. That, my friends, is how it's done. If you can outperform the market like that a couple times a year, you'll be very successful.
    Apr 22 10:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google misses by $0.15, misses on revenue [View news story]
    There were lots of mp3 players before the iPod too.
    Apr 16 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Hedging is a complex topic which will take me a long time to write-up properly, but the quick version is that your short bets are just an alternate use of your cash / dry powder while you're waiting for more attractive prices to establish your long positions, while at the same time providing protection to your current longs from a fall in the markets.

    If accomplished with decent timing, you'll be taking gains on your short bets as you put that money to work into longs on a dip.

    The over-arching idea being: be longer during rallies than you were during pullbacks. It's difficult to achieve, but that, alongside picking outperformers, is the overall goal.
    Apr 13 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Although hedging is a topic for another day, if you follow my Stocktalks you know that I was net short coming into last week. This means that my bet against the S&P (using SPXU) outweighed all of my longs put together.

    That means that more than 50% of my holdings went up 3.8% with that S&P drop, while a large chunk of my longs only fell 0.7%. I also had two separate scalps on UVXY for 10% and 15%. In total, it was a very good week while many in the market were suffering large losses.
    Apr 13 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Since the day I wrote this blog, the S&P has dropped 3.8%.

    The 4 stocks I suggested having large positions in have gone:

    APU +1.2%
    AVB +0.2%
    KMI -2.0%
    BRK.B -2.1%
    Average: -0.7%

    This is the strategy working.
    Apr 13 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Re stops: as detailed above, stops are a component of the TA religion. You have to decide if you want to subscribe to the TA or FA style. I'm not saying the TA style can't be successful, it's just not what I use. In the FA method, you don't sell in reaction to price movement, you sell when news changes your thesis.

    Re calm underwater: emotion is the enemy of a successful trader. You need to do whatever it takes to eliminate it in your daily views of market action. If you can't, then this style is not for you. You can't get quick jumps in all of your picks, it just doesn't work that way. You have to go into it thinking that some will take a long time.
    Apr 13 11:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Well, first off, I make a lot of picks, and not all of them end up winners. I have a very good percentage of picks that are winners, but it's not 100%. Among the winners, some take longer than others to show a gain, and some go down first. I'm sure you've seen some of my posts say "for a x% gain in 6 months" or "9 months". What's important about these two, is that the thesis is still intact; FEYE should be higher, and BBW should be lower.

    I'll close this answer with a story. Back in 2012, CLCT had fallen from over $16 to $12 (look at a 2-year chart). I liked this stock and thought that 25% pullback was a good point to buy. It proceeded to drop another 25% to $9, and stayed there for a couple of months. I of course averaged down, even announcing that it had become a large position. A number of people on Stocktalks let me hear about it every day, saying Ocean Man had lost his mind, should've used a stop, was going to lose his stack. But my thesis was intact, and I never panicked. Look at my picture. Have you ever seen anyone look so calm and collected underwater?

    The stock proceeded to gain 150% including dividends over the next 13 months. I haven't heard too many people question my methods since. But sometimes you have to wait.
    Apr 11 09:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marijuana, Merger Premiums & The Missing Ashraf Eassa [View instapost]
    Motley Fool? Aw, man. I thought he was joining Motley Crue.
    Apr 11 04:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    If you were really bullish about a stock, maybe, but usually I look at it this way - being ahead on a half position is not a bad problem to have. And there's always the next dip.
    Apr 10 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Adamis Family [View instapost]
    Is that Guy Adami's family?
    Apr 9 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitulation after a brief, bad run? [View news story]
    That was funny. Kudos SA. Exited in yen terms.
    Apr 8 08:01 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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