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Ocean Man  

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  • North Dakota rig count at lowest level since November 2010 [View news story]
    It's true those things are things. They're just not things that should cause oil to drop 50% in 3 months.

    An over-reaction is also a thing. I like to buy those things. I've had great success with them in the past.
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy stocks brace for several ugly quarters to come [View news story]
    What's even funnier is that BBG, which is 100% hedged at $93 for 4Q14, has seen its 4Q earnings expectation drop from 17c to zero over the past 90 days. It earned 11c in 4Q13.

    It's also hedged 100% for full year 2015 at $90 and its full year 2015 earnings expectation has dropped from 81c to minus 1c over the past 90 days.

    This company literally has no revenue exposure to the price of oil and is getting these drastic revisions.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy stocks brace for several ugly quarters to come [View news story]
    Looks like a set of easy beats to me.

    Avg price of oil in 4Q13: $90
    Avg price of oil in 4Q14: $68
    A drop of 25%.
    Hedges probably take the 4Q14 number up to $75, maybe higher, although that will vary by company. So the realized drop is probably closer to 17%.

    But the reduced earnings projections above are:
    26% lower for XOM,
    31% lower for CVX, and
    36% lower for COP.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention [View article]
    XOP. Holds about 80 names in roughly equal amounts:

    http://bit.ly/1BXgjz1

    The top 20 holdings are basically straight off of Richard's list of mid and small cap independents.
    Jan 9, 2015. 08:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Strategies For Controlling My ^#&%#!@ Emotions [View instapost]
    Great advice, Chris. Something you touched on, and sheldon touched on above.... most people think of the dangerous emotions in trading being the panic selling and fear of buying when all news is bad (the best time to buy), but I find that my biggest emotional mistakes are made following my most successful runs, taking stupid chances when I should be putting all of my money into diaper manufacturers like KMB.
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention [View article]
    Thanks for continuing this series, Richard.

    It's funny that TPLM shows up as a 4% bounce on your table, as it actually doubled off of its bottom between Dec 8th and 23rd (before retreating again).
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The morning after: Europe bounces, as do U.S. futures [View news story]
    I didn't realize that crude had milestones at each dollar under 50.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitstamp suspends service after security breach [View news story]
    But I thought Louie was guarding those bitcoin wallets on Sunday....
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • France urges end to Russian sanctions [View news story]
    That guy's softer than Pau Gasol wrapped in 2-ply Charmin.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is oil below $50 the new normal? [View news story]
    Yeah, people are focusing way too much on the most recent 45 years.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:52 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges in past week but still exceeds year-ago count [View news story]
    That's 19% for Canada in 1 week.
    Jan 5, 2015. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Crude Oil, Now Natural Gas... How Low Can It Go? [View article]
    Re 1) that's true for some of what was being flared, but most of it was transportable, it was just too expensive (negative profit) to transport it to market for sale. Now they have to take the losses or fix the problem.

    Re 2) I agree completely. All of the pundits saying "this company" or "that company" was in a better position because of their flexibility to switch from oil drilling to gas drilling just saw those arguments fly out the window.
    Jan 1, 2015. 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy: Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop Refiners [View article]
    Excellent article, DAG. In the past two days there have been news articles saying that the US will allow lightly refined oil exports by self-classification. How do you think this will affect refiners? Would it take years to cut the Brent/WTI spread in half, or would it be eliminated altogether in short order? Not sure how much volume would be exported in 2015, and how much it would matter to the spreads. Thanks, OM.
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will ETRACS 2x High Dividend, Low Volatility ETN Really Return Either? [View article]
    While your efforts are appreciated, I don't think backtesting the constituents provides an accurate view. For instance, the current top holding in the fund, with a weighting of more than 10%, COP, is not even on the list of holdings above. In other words, the turnover in top holdings is dramatic.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    Unless he made two other picks that were right. :)
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
589 Comments
641 Likes