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Ocean Man  

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  • Atlas Resource Partners: Don't Buy The Dip [View article]
    No, Albert, your math is completely wrong. You say they added 7% to the share count and only added 4% to production. But they only spent half of the equity proceeds on the producing assets! They raised $60M and spent $35M.

    Your work is usually better. You apparently rushed to get this out in response to the news. This is a terrific deal for ARP and the dip should be bought with both hands.
    May 19, 2015. 04:01 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corrections Corporation Of America - An Innovative Yield Strategy [View article]
    Thank you for your comment. However, nothing that you mentioned happened since the guidance update 11 days ago, therefore all of those issues, plus the many positives, were incorporated into the updated forward view.
    May 18, 2015. 01:49 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. oil rig count falls for 20th straight week [View news story]
    Probably caused by people driving Teslas.
    Apr 24, 2015. 06:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tonix Pharma +12% premarket on bullish call [View news story]
    So somewhere between $14 and $225 then.....
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:36 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Least Popular Article Ever [View instapost]
    I am very impressed by ALJJ, particularly their decision to buy 90% of your shares right before a 500% run-up. :)

    I had similar frustrations regarding under-followed stocks. I wrote about a few, made about $25 like you said, then decided it wasn't worth my research time to keep doing that. I know PRO is supposed to combat that problem, paying writers more so they'll write about under-followed stocks, but I'm not real keen on giving my ideas to the wealthy a day before the masses. So, still hoping something better develops here in that arena, although I haven't figured out a good fix. Good luck with your new forum.

    Apr 19, 2015. 09:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Hell On Fire' - The 3x Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (Part I) [View article]
    Anybody who suggests capturing the 1% per month decay in leveraged ETFs by shorting them has never shorted them. Different stocks have different daily charges for shorting them, ranging from zero to over 40% per year. Leveraged ETFs are some of the highest around. You will almost certainly be charged more than 1% per month once you actually try to employ that strategy.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:23 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing patents Star Wars-style force fields [View news story]
    I prefer technology that doesn't leave me totally blind.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson doubles down on Lumber Liquidators short [View news story]
    You don't know that even a single share is held short. 86% of the float was traded today.
    Mar 12, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Resources: Top Growth Company In The Eagle Ford Shale [View article]
    Nice, Robert, they're my favorite band. I'll have to do some research on ROSE, I've had them in my 2nd tier lately, but it might be time for a reassessment.

    My previous assessment was based on who fell how much on the initial oil drop in Nov/Dec, and which of those were likely to bounce back the most. Several have doubled since. Now I need to look at the ones that haven't and determine if it's deserved or they just haven't bounced yet.

    And then I need to mix into that my outlook for oil which is very uncertain right now. In other words, I thought oil juniors would bounce, they bounced, now what?

    But the main criteria are debt levels, cash and liquidity, capex, hedging, quality of acreage, recent cost reductions, and whatever good news or red flags you can pull out of earnings call transcripts. Weigh in some Seeking Alpha article opinions, including the comments, and you can develop an outlook. Good luck.
    Mar 1, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Glad to hear it's working for you guys!
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count down another 43 units for eighth straight week of losses [View news story]
    The rigs that have been idled over the past two months will affect production six to nine months from now. You don't get a forest the day after you plant acorns, Viper.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So How Much Exactly Does It Cost To Produce A Barrel Of Oil? [View article]
    Excellent article, Lionel. A couple of other costs that vary between companies include:

    1) Debt interest payments, as you mentioned, vary widely between companies.

    2) Tax loss carryforwards, which would eliminate $6 per barrel from your calcs for some companies.

    3) Hedges, which can range from zero for some companies, to 100% at $90 per barrel for other companies, and many in between. This is a major driver in determining who will survive and who won't, but your calcs are a great starting point from which one could make this adjustment.
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franc soars after SNB scraps euro cap [View news story]
    I think that means they expect Euro-QE is imminent.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota rig count at lowest level since November 2010 [View news story]
    When the market is wrong about prices, it's during fast, large moves, not long periods of stability.
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota rig count at lowest level since November 2010 [View news story]
    It's true those things are things. They're just not things that should cause oil to drop 50% in 3 months.

    An over-reaction is also a thing. I like to buy those things. I've had great success with them in the past.
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment