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Ocean Man  

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  • 'Hell On Fire' - The 3x Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (Part I) [View article]
    Anybody who suggests capturing the 1% per month decay in leveraged ETFs by shorting them has never shorted them. Different stocks have different daily charges for shorting them, ranging from zero to over 40% per year. Leveraged ETFs are some of the highest around. You will almost certainly be charged more than 1% per month once you actually try to employ that strategy.
    Apr 4, 2015. 10:23 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boeing patents Star Wars-style force fields [View news story]
    I prefer technology that doesn't leave me totally blind.
    Mar 23, 2015. 10:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whitney Tilson doubles down on Lumber Liquidators short [View news story]
    You don't know that even a single share is held short. 86% of the float was traded today.
    Mar 12, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Resources: Top Growth Company In The Eagle Ford Shale [View article]
    Nice, Robert, they're my favorite band. I'll have to do some research on ROSE, I've had them in my 2nd tier lately, but it might be time for a reassessment.

    My previous assessment was based on who fell how much on the initial oil drop in Nov/Dec, and which of those were likely to bounce back the most. Several have doubled since. Now I need to look at the ones that haven't and determine if it's deserved or they just haven't bounced yet.

    And then I need to mix into that my outlook for oil which is very uncertain right now. In other words, I thought oil juniors would bounce, they bounced, now what?

    But the main criteria are debt levels, cash and liquidity, capex, hedging, quality of acreage, recent cost reductions, and whatever good news or red flags you can pull out of earnings call transcripts. Weigh in some Seeking Alpha article opinions, including the comments, and you can develop an outlook. Good luck.
    Mar 1, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Glad to hear it's working for you guys!
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count down another 43 units for eighth straight week of losses [View news story]
    The rigs that have been idled over the past two months will affect production six to nine months from now. You don't get a forest the day after you plant acorns, Viper.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • So How Much Exactly Does It Cost To Produce A Barrel Of Oil? [View article]
    Excellent article, Lionel. A couple of other costs that vary between companies include:

    1) Debt interest payments, as you mentioned, vary widely between companies.

    2) Tax loss carryforwards, which would eliminate $6 per barrel from your calcs for some companies.

    3) Hedges, which can range from zero for some companies, to 100% at $90 per barrel for other companies, and many in between. This is a major driver in determining who will survive and who won't, but your calcs are a great starting point from which one could make this adjustment.
    Jan 17, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Franc soars after SNB scraps euro cap [View news story]
    I think that means they expect Euro-QE is imminent.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota rig count at lowest level since November 2010 [View news story]
    When the market is wrong about prices, it's during fast, large moves, not long periods of stability.
    Jan 13, 2015. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Dakota rig count at lowest level since November 2010 [View news story]
    It's true those things are things. They're just not things that should cause oil to drop 50% in 3 months.

    An over-reaction is also a thing. I like to buy those things. I've had great success with them in the past.
    Jan 13, 2015. 07:57 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy stocks brace for several ugly quarters to come [View news story]
    What's even funnier is that BBG, which is 100% hedged at $93 for 4Q14, has seen its 4Q earnings expectation drop from 17c to zero over the past 90 days. It earned 11c in 4Q13.

    It's also hedged 100% for full year 2015 at $90 and its full year 2015 earnings expectation has dropped from 81c to minus 1c over the past 90 days.

    This company literally has no revenue exposure to the price of oil and is getting these drastic revisions.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy stocks brace for several ugly quarters to come [View news story]
    Looks like a set of easy beats to me.

    Avg price of oil in 4Q13: $90
    Avg price of oil in 4Q14: $68
    A drop of 25%.
    Hedges probably take the 4Q14 number up to $75, maybe higher, although that will vary by company. So the realized drop is probably closer to 17%.

    But the reduced earnings projections above are:
    26% lower for XOM,
    31% lower for CVX, and
    36% lower for COP.
    Jan 9, 2015. 09:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention [View article]
    XOP. Holds about 80 names in roughly equal amounts:

    http://bit.ly/1BXgjz1

    The top 20 holdings are basically straight off of Richard's list of mid and small cap independents.
    Jan 9, 2015. 08:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Strategies For Controlling My ^#&%#!@ Emotions [View instapost]
    Great advice, Chris. Something you touched on, and sheldon touched on above.... most people think of the dangerous emotions in trading being the panic selling and fear of buying when all news is bad (the best time to buy), but I find that my biggest emotional mistakes are made following my most successful runs, taking stupid chances when I should be putting all of my money into diaper manufacturers like KMB.
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention [View article]
    Thanks for continuing this series, Richard.

    It's funny that TPLM shows up as a 4% bounce on your table, as it actually doubled off of its bottom between Dec 8th and 23rd (before retreating again).
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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