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Ocean Man

 
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  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Sold for $44.97.

    Intra-day gain of 4.6%.
    Jun 27, 2014. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Bought the open on AZZ at $43.00.
    Jun 27, 2014. 09:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Technology Growth Capital - A BDC With An Equity Kicker [View article]
    Rising rates are bullish for BDC's who borrow at fixed rates and lend at floating rates.
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Chrome Arbitrage And $300 On The Sidewalk [View instapost]
    I don't mean to rain on your parade, but I used to be in one just like that and the US government froze all of the American accounts. I tested it a few times to make sure I could withdraw winnings and it worked fine. They had a free $10 bet each week, like Who will win Monday Night Football. 52 weeks x $10 x 50/50 bet was EV of $260 per year. Plus they had deposit matches that vested as you wagered like this one. Over a couple of years I ran it up to about $900 pretty much risk-free. Then it got frozen. That was several years ago. Still frozen. Like they say in the stock market, "it works until it doesn't".
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do Day Traders Evidence Skill? [View article]
    I agree. The vast majority of day traders trade on technical analysis signals. It doesn't make sense for this study to assume that the ones that outperformed had inside information about company news.
    Jun 14, 2014. 01:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seattle to boost wage floor to $15 per hour [View news story]
    It didn't go above $3.35 until 1990.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seattle to boost wage floor to $15 per hour [View news story]
    Sometimes you see intelligent discussions in the comments, and other times you see this^.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:21 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    If I look back at all of the worst trades I ever made, most of the ones that hurt were because I didn't control my position size on them. In contrast, most of the ones that were equally stupid but kept to a controlled position size are completely forgotten.

    I'd say my methods are mostly based on experience. There are many facets of the FA side which I don't use, or use much. My system is experience-based with a FA backdrop. Experience helps one keep a wary mindset when approaching each opportunity, knowing what might go wrong, what red flags to look out for, knowing how the stock market likes to do the opposite of the obvious reaction. Then, with that cautious mindset, you search for catalysts and over-reactions with FA glasses.
    May 16, 2014. 08:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marijuana, Merger Premiums & The Missing Ashraf Eassa [View instapost]
    He was a college student with less than two years investing experience for a good chunk of that time, so it's not a bad salary considering that, so hopefully it vaults him upwards from there.
    May 4, 2014. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    I should mention that I actually bid $23.75 in that example, to widen my net of possible GTC orders I might snag, and just got matched up with a $23.65 ask.
    May 4, 2014. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Today's post is about Good Til Canceled orders. Let's say a stock was trading at $23.95 with 15 minutes to go in the session on a Tuesday. The stock starts to tank into the close and closes at $23.60 (a drop of 1.5% in 15 minutes). You also notice that the volume was abnormally high, much, much higher than normal. This is a situation where a lot of people saw the stock starting to drop fast, put in limit sell orders, and saw those orders not get filled, as the stock tanked too fast and then the bell rang ending the session. Some of those orders will likely be Good Til Canceled orders, which will remain open into the next day (some people just enter their orders that way).

    That evening you see some good news come through in the after-hours for that company. Your hope is that maybe some people didn't see that news, maybe some people didn't interpret that news as very, very good, or maybe some people just didn't bother to cancel their GTC orders. This happens more with smaller, less popular stocks, especially when a lot of earnings news for big, popular stocks is dominating the headlines (the theme of this blog).

    The next morning, you don't see any pre-market trades, but you see the bid/ask spread on this company is a lot higher than the previous day's close, something like $24.25 by $25.00. That means the bid, which no one is accepting in the pre-market, is 2.75% higher than the previous day's close. That tells you there is a good likelihood that this stock is going to trade higher that day, but you also know there are some GTC orders likely sitting out there just above yesterday's closing price.

    So what I do, is I put in a regular session bid (not a pre-market bid) just above the previous day's closing price, but the key is: I put it in really early. I put it in more than an hour before the session opens. My theory is, the market makers have to match up the bids that come in with the asks that were left open from the previous day, and they'll do it first-come, first-served if they're not playing favorites. They're more likely to just get it over with on these unpopular stocks.

    So on the stock in our example, I put in a bid of $23.65, just a nickel above the previous day's close, hoping to catch a GTC ask left open. And guess what happened?

    The stock in this example is AEGN, and the example is a true story. It's a theory I've been experimenting with for a while, and it's been working a lot lately. I filled at $23.65 Wednesday (4 days ago), which you will see as the opening price for AEGN on Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. What you'll also see, is that the average price paid during the first nine minutes of trading was $24.18, and 90 minutes later the stock was at $25.25, pretty much perfectly tracing the bid/ask spread we saw in the pre-market. You could've sold there for a gain of 6.7% in 90 minutes, or held for $25.59 a few hours later (+8.2%).

    This isn't foolproof, but it works a good percentage of the time when the setup is similar to what I described above. You won't always fill, in fact most of the time you won't, but if you do fill once every 5, or even 10 tries, you could make some nice quick gains, and you don't lose anything when you don't fill. The time-saver, is that the candidates for this idea, are a subset of the candidates you're searching for in the earnings trading strategy above in this blog, so it doesn't take any additional time. Good luck trading everyone!
    May 4, 2014. 10:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 25 Best Authors On Seeking Alpha [View instapost]
    Thank you, Tim. I'm honored to be listed alongside the other 24 fantastic authors you mentioned.
    May 3, 2014. 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Made 0.5% on KRC and 2.5% on PDM today.

    Two other qualifiers I noted but didn't play, also produced gains: +1.3% on IPI and +0.8% on AKR.

    Average of +1.5% on the two I played.
    May 1, 2014. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    System through last quarter: +65.7% in 5 months.
    Last week's gains: +1.2%.
    Today's gains: +8%.

    System to date: +81% in 8 months.
    Apr 30, 2014. 03:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    And $25.53 makes a gain of 8% in one day.

    Not.
    Too.
    Shabby.
    Apr 30, 2014. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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