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Ocean Man  

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  • Will ETRACS 2x High Dividend, Low Volatility ETN Really Return Either? [View article]
    While your efforts are appreciated, I don't think backtesting the constituents provides an accurate view. For instance, the current top holding in the fund, with a weighting of more than 10%, COP, is not even on the list of holdings above. In other words, the turnover in top holdings is dramatic.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    Unless he made two other picks that were right. :)
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    Instead of paying a dividend, SLCA has chosen to invest the money into building a competitive advantage against those competitors in the area of logistics, namely faster and cheaper delivery of product. This is the kind of thing that can give SLCA a higher P/E multiple than its competitors and thus higher stock price appreciation, and higher earnings growth. The strategy may pay higher "dividends" in time.
    Dec 27, 2014. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    Your criticism of SLCA not using its buyback program as of Oct 31st is even more hilarious. The stock was still above $44 as of that filing. They were smart to wait, many companies did not. Some companies strategically use their buyback program only when the stock drops below a certain point, rather than a little bit every day with no regard to the stock price. Look at Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. They have a buyback program that only buys when the stock drops below 1.2x book value. Criticize the buyback programs that bought furiously halfway down the drop. This one was used brilliantly and provides downside protection from here.
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    SimpleData,

    You seem to have trouble interpreting simple data. You state that earnings may come down 20%. Ok. Then you state that demand for frac sand may drop 60%. Ok, SLCA's sales are 70% frac sand so that could be a 0.7 x 0.6 = 42% hit. So you've made a point that IF these extremes pan out and these low oil prices hold, that SLCA's outlook (stock price) could drop 20-40%. If the stock was at all-time highs, no one would be arguing with you.

    But the point you are grossly missing, is that the stock has already fallen 70%. People are simply arguing that the 70% drop is not justified by the simple data you presented suggesting a 20-40% drop. Do you understand the concept of "priced in"? Would you still be making this argument if the stock was down 90%? 95%?

    To use your words, "the math is really simple."
    Dec 25, 2014. 07:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Buy XIV when VIX goes over 17 has worked 12 times out of 12 over the past 2 years.
    Dec 23, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Glad to hear it Matt!
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Hedge Positions Of 30 U.S. Shale Producers [View article]
    Great comparison, thanks!
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Crude Oil, Now Natural Gas... How Low Can It Go? [View article]
    I see two headwinds developing for nat gas prices:

    1) North Dakota recently passed a law to reduce flaring of nat gas. This will force operators to sell their nat gas that they were previously burning at the source.

    2) Several companies that have recently reduced their oil drilling capex in response to the oil price drop have switched their capex spending from oil drilling to gas drilling.

    A tailwind could be a reduction in the nat gas that comes along with oil drilling, but I believe the two headwinds outweigh that tailwind.
    Dec 23, 2014. 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    Feb 2014 - Aug 2014 (the upturn):
    EMES +202%
    SLCA +174%
    HCLP +83%

    Sep 2014 - Dec 2014 (the downturn):
    HCLP -55%
    SLCA -67%
    EMES -71%

    Feb 2014 - Dec 2014 (combined):
    EMES -6%
    SLCA -9%
    HCLP -15%

    *EMES and HCLP would both gain a few % in these comparisons if you adjusted for distributions.

    Still, SLCA doesn't appear to have underperformed those other two over these periods that cover most of the past year.
    (Source: Yahoo Finance, dates used: Feb 4 - Sep 4, Aug 29 - Dec 15)
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    When you consider that more than 30% of the company's sales are sand used to make glass, paint, and golf course bunkers, which are not correlated to the price of oil, the argument that you're getting the frac sand business for free gets even more interesting.
    Dec 20, 2014. 01:14 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    20% drop in earnings estimates.
    69% drop in stock price.
    That's an overreaction.
    Good article, Chuck.
    Dec 20, 2014. 08:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Hard to fill when the market gaps up 30 S&P handles. Live to play another day.
    Dec 18, 2014. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: What Are The Assets Worth? [View article]
    The company bought back 5M shares in November. They have 6M shares left in the buyback program. I wouldn't be surprised if they contributed to the 48% push up on Tuesday.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude now -7.6% on OPEC rollover [View news story]
    He should adjust his focus a little closer to home:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
591 Comments
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