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Ocean Man  

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  • 6 Strategies For Controlling My ^#&%#!@ Emotions [View instapost]
    Great advice, Chris. Something you touched on, and sheldon touched on above.... most people think of the dangerous emotions in trading being the panic selling and fear of buying when all news is bad (the best time to buy), but I find that my biggest emotional mistakes are made following my most successful runs, taking stupid chances when I should be putting all of my money into diaper manufacturers like KMB.
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil & Gas Stocks: Have You Noticed A Performance Improvement? May Be Worth Paying Attention [View article]
    Thanks for continuing this series, Richard.

    It's funny that TPLM shows up as a 4% bounce on your table, as it actually doubled off of its bottom between Dec 8th and 23rd (before retreating again).
    Jan 8, 2015. 09:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The morning after: Europe bounces, as do U.S. futures [View news story]
    I didn't realize that crude had milestones at each dollar under 50.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitstamp suspends service after security breach [View news story]
    But I thought Louie was guarding those bitcoin wallets on Sunday....
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France urges end to Russian sanctions [View news story]
    That guy's softer than Pau Gasol wrapped in 2-ply Charmin.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is oil below $50 the new normal? [View news story]
    Yeah, people are focusing way too much on the most recent 45 years.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:52 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges in past week but still exceeds year-ago count [View news story]
    That's 19% for Canada in 1 week.
    Jan 5, 2015. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Crude Oil, Now Natural Gas... How Low Can It Go? [View article]
    Re 1) that's true for some of what was being flared, but most of it was transportable, it was just too expensive (negative profit) to transport it to market for sale. Now they have to take the losses or fix the problem.

    Re 2) I agree completely. All of the pundits saying "this company" or "that company" was in a better position because of their flexibility to switch from oil drilling to gas drilling just saw those arguments fly out the window.
    Jan 1, 2015. 12:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valero Energy: Cheap Oil Doesn't Stop Refiners [View article]
    Excellent article, DAG. In the past two days there have been news articles saying that the US will allow lightly refined oil exports by self-classification. How do you think this will affect refiners? Would it take years to cut the Brent/WTI spread in half, or would it be eliminated altogether in short order? Not sure how much volume would be exported in 2015, and how much it would matter to the spreads. Thanks, OM.
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will ETRACS 2x High Dividend, Low Volatility ETN Really Return Either? [View article]
    While your efforts are appreciated, I don't think backtesting the constituents provides an accurate view. For instance, the current top holding in the fund, with a weighting of more than 10%, COP, is not even on the list of holdings above. In other words, the turnover in top holdings is dramatic.
    Dec 28, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    Unless he made two other picks that were right. :)
    Dec 28, 2014. 08:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Best Investment In Shale Oil? [View article]
    Instead of paying a dividend, SLCA has chosen to invest the money into building a competitive advantage against those competitors in the area of logistics, namely faster and cheaper delivery of product. This is the kind of thing that can give SLCA a higher P/E multiple than its competitors and thus higher stock price appreciation, and higher earnings growth. The strategy may pay higher "dividends" in time.
    Dec 27, 2014. 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]
    Your criticism of SLCA not using its buyback program as of Oct 31st is even more hilarious. The stock was still above $44 as of that filing. They were smart to wait, many companies did not. Some companies strategically use their buyback program only when the stock drops below a certain point, rather than a little bit every day with no regard to the stock price. Look at Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. They have a buyback program that only buys when the stock drops below 1.2x book value. Criticize the buyback programs that bought furiously halfway down the drop. This one was used brilliantly and provides downside protection from here.
    Dec 26, 2014. 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm All In On U.S. Silica [View article]

    You seem to have trouble interpreting simple data. You state that earnings may come down 20%. Ok. Then you state that demand for frac sand may drop 60%. Ok, SLCA's sales are 70% frac sand so that could be a 0.7 x 0.6 = 42% hit. So you've made a point that IF these extremes pan out and these low oil prices hold, that SLCA's outlook (stock price) could drop 20-40%. If the stock was at all-time highs, no one would be arguing with you.

    But the point you are grossly missing, is that the stock has already fallen 70%. People are simply arguing that the 70% drop is not justified by the simple data you presented suggesting a 20-40% drop. Do you understand the concept of "priced in"? Would you still be making this argument if the stock was down 90%? 95%?

    To use your words, "the math is really simple."
    Dec 25, 2014. 07:19 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Buy XIV when VIX goes over 17 has worked 12 times out of 12 over the past 2 years.
    Dec 23, 2014. 05:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment