Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Ocean Man  

View Ocean Man's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • The "HOPE TRADE" [View instapost]
    I respect your opinion that you "think" the market is going to go down, and you have your chips placed that way, but your argument based on probabilities is weak, actually non-existent.

    Probabilities are based on data, and you presented none. Until proven otherwise, the long-term trend of the market is up, and that data provides probability distributions around future moves, with up moves slightly more probable than down moves. Any highly trained mathematician can tell you that the probability, based on this actual data, of making new lows can be precisely calculated using standard deviations. I can tell you that this scenario is possible, of course, but nowhere near the "more probable than not" likelihood that you suggested.
    Sep 8, 2015. 10:42 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil sneaks into positive territory as crude inventory decline [View news story]
    The decline in oil rigs has a time lag before showing a decrease in production, and we're starting to see it now.
    Aug 26, 2015. 10:39 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. stock index futures higher after China rate cut [View news story]
    So YINN closes on our exchange yesterday. Then China falls 7.6% overnight, which should be a -23% for YINN (3x) when it re-opens. But then China cuts its rate in the AH causing all this bullish excitement this morning, and YINN is up 21% in the pre-market. That's 57% above where it would have been (121/77). So China's going to jump 19% tomorrow? On a rate cut from 4.85 to 4.60?
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy and LinnCo tumble; rumor swirls [View news story]
    No, the winner is ARP, up 6.7% today, and finally ignoring the price moves in the vastly inferior LINE.
    Aug 21, 2015. 02:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Yes, but that's just my style. Some people can be successful with averaging up, but I just take smaller wins sometimes and stay happy that I never saw the position in the red.
    Aug 6, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corrections Corporation of America FFO in-line, beats on revenue [View news story]
    FFO was a 6-cent beat at 74 cents, not in line as reported above, as can clearly be seen in the link attached above.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corrections Corporation Of America - An Innovative Yield Strategy [View article]
    The company raised guidance tonight. EPS guidance was raised from $1.89-$1.97 to $1.91 - $1.97, and Normalized FFO guidance was raised from $2.62-$2.70 to $2.64 - $2.71.

    Revenues were up 11.8% Y/Y, EPS were up 12.2% Y/Y and Q/Q, and FFO was up 8.8% Y/Y and Q/Q. Revenues beat consensus by $25M (6%) and FFO beat consensus by 6 cents (9%) despite Seeking Alpha erroneously reporting the FFO number as in line at 68 cents, it was really 74 cents.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    Was up 2.4% at one point, but ended up with a 0.4% gain.
    Aug 4, 2015. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    I played OZM this morning. Bid up 2% and filled at $11.89.
    Aug 4, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Confidence decline in July at 90.9 [View news story]
    It's a reflection of the fear of not knowing what will happen with Greece, from before we found out what would happen with Greece.
    Jul 28, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Mega-Fracs Are The Reason U.S. Oil Production Remains High In A Low-Price Environment [View article]
    Another excellent article, Michael, thank you. What was your reaction to Sanchez (SN) saying they were drilling and completing wells for under $4.5M per well?
    Jul 28, 2015. 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    I think some oil names have moved from the semi-safe category to the risky category with this drop in the price of oil.
    Jul 21, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Why Are The Units Sinking? [View article]
    You commenters above are making good points about the value of the company taking a 50% hit when reserves become fully based on these new lower oil prices, but the stock price for BBEP has already dropped 83%! So.... already priced in?
    Jul 16, 2015. 10:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How I Like To Play Earnings [View instapost]
    I don't buy pre-mkt and I ignore the ones that don't have both revenue and earnings estimates. Also need to be careful of the ones that only have one estimate from one analyst, better to play the ones that are more widely followed but also a bit under the radar. Good luck.
    Jul 14, 2015. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet On Seeking Alpha's Future [View article]
    Congratulations Eli, and thank you David for everything you've built here.

    Ocean Man
    Jul 2, 2015. 09:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment