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  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    Good for them...and good for us. Really, I mean that. We need a few solid players for the whole dual-fuel field to be viable, and CAP and Eco-Dual are poised, at best, to fight between themselves and maybe two or three even smaller fish for what I estimate to be about 25% of the market. That's right...I see APG garnering 75% of the Class 8 vehicular dual-fuel conversion market between the retrofits and the glider trucks.

    The EPA changes that allowed all of this to happen, for any of these companies, was about 3 years ago, so I don't know that I would call that "recent," but, then again, I don't call a drinking fountain a bubbler, or a cop a bobby. :-) What CAP is trying to hide is that they aren't ready to sell now because of a new law...they are ready to sell now because they are done with having to go back to the drawing board because they had problems with their first generation dual-fuel system. Keep in mind that CAP was one of the major losers to APG in the cross-Australia real world field test, in fact, anecdotes from people involved was that they had to have maintenance crew basically dedicate to the CAP dual fuel vehicle. Further, they have about 4% of the engine class approvals APG has, they don't trade on any U.S. exchange, but most of all, even their new system is still a post-turbo, injector-invasive / custom-injector requiring system...which means more mechanical trouble and both more initial and ongoing cost. Crucially, CAP does not have the sales, installation, and support network that APG has. The Wheeltime partnership cannot be understated in regard to it resulting in actual sales. Further, while Clean Air Power went back to the drawing board completely, and Eco-Dual took a great deal of time to fix problems with their software and their harness, APGI gained perhaps insurmountable ground in the market, and was racking up the problem-free test miles with customers, which have resulted in the very nice orders we saw evidence of in the last conference call.

    If you haven't read it already, I suggest reading my least recent, and largest Instablog post. About 3/4 of the way through, I address CAP in detail, and why I see them as a non-threat to APGI.

    If I want something touchy, unreliable, and British, I'll watch Downton Abby. When it comes to getting on the open roads of this great nation, or mining our enormous natural gas supply, give me an American Company who makes their products in the midwest, and gets rave reviews from real American truckers who might stop for a belt-busting skillet at the Petro in the afternoon, but not for tea. :-)

    Create U.S. jobs.
    Help the planet.
    Help small businesses save money.
    Focus on U.S. energy sources.
    Do your own dd.
    Buy APGI. :-)

    Best wishes,
    Odaat
    Feb 20 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    Thanks for your kind comment.

    I am continuing to rigorously accumulate APGI. If you have the time, read through the text of the last conference call. If you don't have it, email me at odaatfriends at gmail dot com and I will send you the PDF of it.

    The vehicular side is enormous...and yet, APG is having beyond-expectation success in the stationary side. *Customers* of APG...and I stress that because I don't mean "people testing it" - I mean entities that have completed their testing of APG's system side by side with Caterpillar's Dynamic Gas Blend, Hythane's system, Eco-Dual's, and some options from Cummins, and have *ordered, installed, and are using* APG's product include some "tiny little nobodies" (lol) like: SHELL OIL, Apache Energy, Cudd Energy, Haliburton, a contractor of FedEx, and several others. That's endorsing enough for this Odaat! :-)

    As for sustainability and the recent runup, I don't try to time the market, and a few pennies make no difference to me. That said, this strength is due to earnings, orders, and solid conference call. If there are some surprise large orders reflected in the 1Q14 earnings, then it's definitely upward from there. However, I do believe that this crazy weather has put rigs and cartage into survival operation mode, which may have delayed some orders, so I am not looking to see 1Q14's report to be some blow-it-out-of-the-water earnings. However, in that time, and in the coming few months, I see the orders ramping up in truly exponential fashion, and APG being cash-positive, if not actually profitable, before the end of this calendar year...and maybe even by the end of their fiscal year (Sept).

    We could see the low .70's again in the coming weeks, so if pennies matter and you are trying to time it, go for it. However, in my opinion, when we look back, anyone who gets in under $2.00 is going to be very happy...and those who did it under 78 cents, elated.

    Everyone has to do their own dd, and certainly never invest based on anyone else, especially an internet presence...that said, I'm Odaat, and I do dd in ways that, well...work...and I am accumulating APGI, period. I also believe they will have sales-driven income sufficient to execute the business plan, and uplist, organically / without the need for another capital raise or any reverse split. Yes, the share count is large, but when these earnings keep rolling in, the valuation is not off. I'd rather the larger count so that institutions know they have liquidity.

    Now, that all said, I do not do technical analysis. I am a "company's story" guy. However, my friends who do TA are saying that a few days closing above the 80 cent mark is a big support level, and would be a run...maybe even a "never looks back" run, from there.

    Best wishes to you in your investing endeavors.
    - Odaat
    Feb 20 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    My friend, I don't know how much more clear I can make it, but PSI is not a competitor in this field, and has no product to do so, and has no intention of doing so. I knew that already, but just to be certain, I just talked again with my contact at PSI and confirmed this. In that same conversation, it was again encouraging to hear another company indeed commending APGI, and acknowledging that they have a masterful stronghold and lead in that arena, and that the have nothing but positive to say about APGI's technology, leadership, and business plan. PSI is a good company, with a good feel for the industrial market, and openmindedness in regard to the best solutions for their customers. I think they see much more propane market opportunities than other people are giving credit to, as well, and wisely so.

    PSI prides itself in offering a line of products that has a variety in regard to the type of fuel they use...especially "alternative" fuels. They are not focused on the on-the-road applications, especially not in Class 8, and they do NOT offer a dual-fuel engine or a dual-fuel conversion product in any way. When they say "fuel-flexible" they mean that they, as a company, with the engines they offer, have a lot of flexibility when it comes to the fuel it uses or can use. They pride themselves in "fuel agnostic" engines that AT ANY GIVEN TIME can run on ONE fuel, but that fuel can be changed...for example, from gasoline to propane. In most cases, that requires a refitting of the engine. In a few cases, the engines can sense a change in the fuel and run from there. But again, they are not, for example, proposing that a class 6 truck, for example, would have gasoline tanks and propane tanks or something like that. Which engine you order and which fuel you want to use with it are decisions one has to make upfront, and changing that down the road would require refitting the engine, or doing something different. They also recognize that some smaller fleets might have a hub in the north, where pipeline natural gas is available, and a hub in the south, where propane would make more sense, and they want to have an engine platform that the customer could buy with confidence and use in either setting. They are looking at fleets as a whole, and saying they offer various engine types so a fleet can ease into a transition to some or all of their fleet using a different fuel. Also, they only offer engines up to class 7 right now, which means they don't even have a competing engine to the technology I am discussing anyway. If you look at their site, you'll see that the highest liter size category is "Coming Soon - contact us for information." Which to me means they were hoping to carry either Cummin's or Westport's larger duty natural gas engines, which both companies just announced they have either cancelled or indefinitely postponed production of. They confirmed that that option has not materialized for PSI. They are focused on NEW / original equipment sales and applications. The PSI rep confirmed that when their customers ask "but what can you do for my older stuff?" PSI has nothing to offer. And, while they have had conversations with APGI, they are not a Wheeltime member, and thus are not a dealer. I had the opportunity to talk at length off the record with them, and it was exceptionally rewarding to hear similar thoughts and insights into the dual fuel realm that completely confirm all I have said about how APGI far exceeds all other dua-fuel competitors (such as Eco-Dual and Clean Air Power).

    My articles are about dual-fuel...the brilliant, extremely return-on-investment-c... range-anxiety-avoiding development for transportation, mining, power/pumping, marine, rail, etc. I discuss competitors in the dual-fuel arena, of which PSI is not one. You can copy and paste something from a website all you want, but do some due diligence before clogging up these discussions. I respect PSI, but there really is no reason to include them in this dual-fuel discussion, and even they would agree with that. If I were a fleet and ready to commit to 100% propane or natural gas, or I had NON class-8 trucks in my fleet, I would contact PSI straight away. But for my class 8 applications and non-new trucks, the proof is already out there from the quotes from real-life fleet operators in regard to APGI's dual-fuel conversion..."I don't understand why everyone isn't doing this." It is that in-arguable a business plan to do so.

    I had great difficulty getting a hold of anyone at PSI, (Jim Needham, Bob Nave, one other) but finally, once establishing a relationship with the righ person (Jeremy L.) my positive regard for PSI has been confirmed. I have nothing bad to say about PSI, in which you are obviously a long investor...but you supporting PSI as some kind of stance that is "anti" APGI simply makes no sense. It would be like us having a debate between Starbucks and Caribou, and you throw in an argument in support of Lipton. Yes, if I want tea, I might go to Lazo or Lipton, but if I'm there and realize I need coffee, then I'm heading back to Starbucks.

    So, let me summarize it this way...the best two things in my world right now are Starbucks' Decaf Cafe Verona whole bean, and APGI. Both are simply the best in the niche in which they operate, and I'm buying both on a regular basis. :-)

    Best wishes,
    Odaat
    Feb 17 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be The Turning Point For Clean Energy Fuels And Westport Innovations [View article]
    This is a great conversation, as you all sit on the dock debating when the ship will come in, all of you having missed the memo that the big delivery is no longer arriving by ship. There is a reason Westport just entered into the diesel/natural gas dual-fuel realm (albeit withan already-inferior post-turbo approach.) Fluctuations in natural gas pricing, problems with dedicated natural gas engines in the higher duty load realms, and still "range anxiety" concerns over the infrastructure have supercharged the interest in transportation in dual-fuel systems. Westport is getting in too late, and is far behind the technology, market grasp, and service and sales support of American Power Group. They would be wise to try to acquire APGI, actually. Their entry into the market, like CAT's, is yet another legitimizing of the dual-fuel approach, however, the basic market share analysis and predictions show the stationary application side being dominated by American Power Group, then CAT's Dynamic Gas Blend, then a much smaller part shared by several competitors like maybe Eco-Dual, Hythane, and a few others. On the vehicular side, APGI is already, and will be the major player, with Clean Air Power, Eco-Dual, and maybe a few others all competing for the remaining market share, each with certain niches. Into that small slice Westport is trying to now enter, with a product that is of a type proven to have more breakdown time, and with a product that isn't even for Class 8 trucks, but for medium to light duty like Class 4's and 5's. Don't get me wrong, I have WPRT in my natural gas and energy portfolios, for sure, but in dual-fuel, if WPRT wants to rise to the top, they're going to have to try to get APGI, as the thought that they would somehow out-do APG's resounding lead in the dual-fuel field is ludicrous. You can check out my editor's pick article and lengthy instablogs about this dual-fuel field if you wish, here: http://seekingalpha.co... and here: http://bit.ly/1cUm6ZA

    Don't even talk to me about CHK's Peake. They are not even a real going concern in the dual fuel arena any more.

    Best to all,
    Odaat
    Feb 15 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    I hope you listened to the recent earnings call, because if you did, I'm confident you've chosen now as the time to get into APGI. The exponential curve from sales has clearly begun.

    The call is archived until 11:50 PM on March 13, 2014 by calling 1-888-203-1112 and entering pass code 6955236.

    I'm long, and accumulating. This is a stock that is going to reach NASDAQ listing without any need for a reverse split...and, as evidenced on the call...they have no need of raising capital either.

    Best,
    Odaat
    Feb 14 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Neuralstem: Sizing Up Potential Key Events Of 2014 [View article]
    Another balanced, well-written article, Smith. Thanks. Having been in CUR for a long, long time, my value has well more than doubled, and I did the conservative thing and sold half plus enough to cover taxes, so my position in CUR is now free of any cost basis for me. That said, I believe CUR will be the one time I regret being conservative, as my dd leans toward this being a true initial breakthrough not just for ALS, but for several neurological conditions.

    Best wishes. - Odaat
    Jan 28 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3/4 Of A Million Dollar Order Emphasizes APGI's Real-World Superiority [View instapost]
    Thank you for the kind comment.

    I could not agree more that the window for the typical individual private retail investor to establish a long position for the purpose of exceptional returns is closing fast. This Collicutt order is in the stationary sector, which isn't even a tributary to the main waters (the vehicular sector) about to bust through the floodgates with all the vehicular bids that went out in 2,3, and 4 Q13 turning into orders in 1,2,and 3Q14.

    I was at the bid yesterday for most of the afternoon, nibbling away to add a bit more to my long position. I wanted to get in before all of the folks who were impressed at CEO Jensen's presentation yesterday got their calls into to their brokers. :-) (Not that I swing or day trade APGI. Full disclosure, I have never sold a share of APGI - have done nothing but establish a core long position several months before I published my article, and regular, substantial accumulation since...each time being after I looked into some concern or area of dd or did full dd on competing companies or products, all of which convinced me to go further long in APGI. Heck, about 2 months ago, figuring I was perhaps just being a blind long surrounded by other believing longs, I fervently tried to find arguments against APGI...from other investors, from executives at competing companies, from natural gas gurus, from investment advisors, from experts in the sector, from truck owner/operators, experts in the mechanical installation and maintenance fields, etc. and I simply didn't get any, try as I might. The only concern seems to be the overhang of shares from the raising, and most see that as a non-issue if sales materialize as projected. I have to share with you all, I had two executives from two different competitors (Eco-DUal and Hythane) BOTH spoke positively of APGI and both said they saw APGI as going to have a definite share of the market. One even hinted he admitted that APGI would likely be the market leader. None had any concerns with APG's technology or approach. One pointed out that they saw themselves being successful "because we're focusing on a different market than them, so we think we'll have a presence there." So I asked him if he meant that APG would be the leader in that larger sector (class 8 trucks), and he said yes. When you've got competitors saying thing like this, I can't help but take that as a positive sign. Oh, I could only get get one middle-level management member from the high and mighty Caterpillar to talk to me, and while it was clear he was towing the company line, it was also clear (and straight out said) that they are well aware of APG and he too reiterated CAT's public stance that they see APG as the only viable competitor in the stationary realm. I now understand that in saying so, they were discounting Hythane, and now, due to some further dd, I know why...but I'm not in a position to share that in this forum. Suffice it to say, CAT and APG are the only real going concerns in the stationary application - there is one other small entry (not Hythane) that might have a small market share, but CAT's DBG system and APG's system are the biggies...and guess which one takes 1/10th the time to install, has had NO breakdown issues, costs way less, requires less maintenance, and is proving to be the most reliable, with reputable displacement levels, in all kinds of horrible weather conditions on the engines? You guessed it, American Power Group's. I think the main reason is that the APG system simply "listens" to the engine and adjusts itself to deliver the perfect amount and pressure of natural gas. The engine simply draws less demand for diesel because it's meeting the performance needs of the demand/load. Any of the other, injector-invasive systems, simply don't have this prowess, elegance, or mechanical simplicity, and they are prone to breakdown, complex installations, and expensive changes for each engine class...none of which APG's approach has to deal with.

    All should do their own DD, of course, and never use anything online like this to make an investment decision. At best, things like this can serve as a basis for formulating some of the questions of your own dd. (Nice cya statement, huh? The reality is, I'd put my dd on this matter up against anyone's...even professional analysts. It's been closer to years of dd now, more thorough than a 3rd grade school nurse trying to get rid of lice nits. lol)

    I'm ODAAT, and I'm long APGI. Best to all.
    Jan 25 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    APG's tech doesn't compare, unless you believe apples and oranges are the same. PSIX is focused on different engine lines, where the line runs on a given fuel, but not on flex-fuel engines / dual-fuel technology. They are looking at middle to lightweight natural gas engines in the vehicular field, and that is not a competition to APG. PSIX is a competitor, in most ways, to the likes of Westport or some of the developments from Cummins or Volvo. PSIX, for example, is touting an engine for stationary mining applications that can run on well-head gas. That's old hat for APGI, as their dual-fuel conversion, for many tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars less, can simply convert the engine the rig is using right now to then be able to displace much of the diesel with well-had gas. With well-head gas being "free" in a sense, it would appear logical to go with an engine from PSIX that can run on it solely, but there are concerns about that regarding the condition of the well-head gas, the much higher cost, and most of all, the return on investment. In that one, small market area (rigs wanting to use well-head gas) I guess you could say APG and PSIX might compete, maybe. Even then, it's not like you can compare APG's technology and PSIX's engines. APG doesn't make engines...they retrofit them to be dual fuel. Besides, PSIX is working with a subsidiary of CAT on one engine project, and CAT already has their own dual-fuel program for CAT engines in these types of situations...the Dynamic Gas Blend (CAT DGB) program...so clearly even CAT would look at your question of comparing the two with the same " huh? " I did.

    I wanted to get some further information from PSIX, but I have left two messages, one with Investor Relations and one with Bob Save, neither of which has been returned.
    Jan 23 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    As for LNG vs. CNG, I don't go there, as it is a huge battle-lines-drawn debate in itself. One can find intelligent debate in several places online, especially the cngchatsite, here: http://bit.ly/1eVaHJJ

    Anyway, I get your point (if it really was meant to be a point, or rather a veiled attack on APGI) in regard to CNG vs LNG, and availability and growth of infrastructure, but it is something that really doesn't affect APG directly, as the dual-fuel units work with either, and the installers can install for either. Between growing infrastructures and commitments to major corridors by the likes of Shell and others, I believe you may be underestimating what availability of NG is, or more, will soon be, nation-wide.

    Moreover, the matter points even further as to why dual-fuel is the approach that will gain most traction over 100% natural-gas dedicated vehicles. If NG is not available, or the driver doesn't have time in their on-duty clock time to stop for a fueling that takes longer than a regular diesel fuel up, then they can just continue on with diesel only until either NG is available, or their on-duty hours are done, and then even a fueling that takes 30 minutes doesn't affect their on-road progress or logged on-duty driving hours.

    Since my article, I've focused on talking with real operators and owners, including some who have APG's dual-fuel installed, some who don't but are considering it / have bids, and some who have never ever heard of it. The real-world feedback I am getting lead me to even further increase my long position in APGI two weeks ago.

    As for the license and IP and patents, as you know, APG is the only dual-fuel with actual patent protection, not just in the application / pending phase,and that the license, for which there are perpetuity clauses, is between APG and an entity that is co-owned by a major APG employee. That was the whole point during the Green Man transition, etc. was this cordial, solid license and IP agreement. It is by no means "up for bid." It was, and is, designed for APG to build ships...great big ships. (That's a reference from the movie Pretty Woman, folks...in the scene where it's made clear that the company's plan is not to sell off assets or be a pump and dump, but to be a real, going concern, with a solid product and solid business plan that will drive earnings and share price for many years to come.)

    As I type, APG CEO Lyle Jensen prepares for today's presentation at World LNG Fuels Conference...just the latest in the string of professional conferences he has been invited to by the big boys to speak at / present at. Very clearly ABSENT, both from the speaker's list, and even the sponsors and participating vendors list, are Eco-Dual, Peake, GTI, Hythane, Landi USA.

    APG simply dominates the vehicular market in dual-fuel, and whereas I once thought they would share the stationary market with CAT and maybe Hythane, I've done dd that shows Hythaneto be, in my opinion, in a precarious / non-viable situation, and with CAT's DBG system, there will always be some CAT loyalists, I guess, but their much higher initial cost, their not-resoundingly better performance, and most of all, the 10-fold amount of time and mechanical staff required for their installations and maintenance are making APG win more and more of these fracking bids and other stationary head-to-head customers' field tests. So, I'm beginning to increase my estimations of APG market share in the stationary realm as well.

    Finally, as noted in my article, SA is an investment site....and APGI represents a great investing opportunity...at the very least, it's a natural gas / duel fuel play, or at least a component of, say, a natural gas portfolio, that is accessible. Good luck trying to somehow buy Hythane stock on that Australian market (not that I would recommend that anyway), and, as noted, if one is in this for returns, the risk/reward ratio heavily favors APGI over, for example, the kind of negligible share price effect even a successful DBG program would have for CAT.
    Jan 23 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Clean Diesel Technologies Should Be A $5 Stock On Its Way To $10 [View article]
    Why would Class 8 truck operators and fleets, for example, spend money to meet an emissions standard, when they can not only meet or beat the new emissions standards, but save a bunch of money on duel as well, by installing a V5000HD dual-fuel (natural gas / diesel) retrofit from American Power Group at a cost they recoup in months?

    That's the investment to make, especially in the U.S. See my Editor's Pick article on APGI, here: http://seekingalpha.co...

    and for a much much more detailed analysis, the entries in the Instablog, especially the oldest one.

    That said, if I had a new energy portfolio, I would probably have a small bit of CDTI in it, for the reasons you mention.

    Best wishes. -Odaat
    Jan 9 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Things I Want From Celsion In 2014 [View article]
    Perhaps after 3 years of repeatedly saying it would happen "soon", actually beginning enrollment in the Philips trial in 2014 might be nice. I'm surprised you didn't mention that, as that trial actually getting off the ground would be a real endorsement from Philips and perhaps the FUS Foundation that the iLTSSL is still viable.

    I'm not holding my breath for anything from CLSN, but, as you know, I am holding on to a small long position because of the potential that still exists in the iLTSSL platform. Should anything positive ever happen from CLSN it will make them the tardigrade of biotech investing.
    Jan 6 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Prices Surging, Driving Return Potential For This Leveraged Natural Gas Liquidation Play [View article]
    As a sideline, relating to a field closely affected - this rise in natural gas prices is exactly why fleets are not going to commit to a 100% natural gas fleet. The smartest, safest, fuel commodity price change protecting, way to go is dual-fuel. When nat gas is cheaper than diesel (which it almost always has been, and likely almost always will be, especially in the U.S.) you use the dual-fuel device as much as possible. If diesel is ever cheaper (or perhaps the only fuel available in a given situation), at the flip of a switch the engine runs on 100% diesel.'

    Only one device has this prowess, American Power Group's V5000HD. Low gas prices fuel an interest in dual-fuel. Rising natural gas prices (and still immature NG fueling infrastructures) superhcarge the argument for dual-fuel over dedicated nat gas.

    Now is the time to go long in APGI. My Editor's Choice article is here:

    http://bit.ly/19HQyDH


    Best,
    Odaat
    Dec 13 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    Thanks, Smith. Coming from you, that's a real compliment.
    Dec 5 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    Thanks, Quoth. Best wishes.
    Dec 4 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Power Group: The Little (Dual Fuel) Engine That Could [View article]
    I agree...and that (and more) is so very reasonable to achieve.
    Dec 4 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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