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Odysseus

 
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  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    so much confidence in zillow before their q1 results....i called it, stock is being run up by professional traders, who are now getting out and there is no one wanting it at this price, im calling 10-20% drop after a quarter that will show declining rate of growth and their continued inability to get spending under control
    May 7 01:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    oh and added to my short position at $103 yesterday :)
    Apr 30 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    the smaller investment companies are still going to ride the wave of these "momentum" stocks, the big companies like JPM and GS know this is a bs way to get revenue, its not sustainable and its a fad, any moron can buy revenue, thats what they are doing, they are not differentiating themselves, they are buying revenue every quarter to make this artificial growth look impressive, this is the biggest "bubble" industry ive ever seen
    Apr 30 06:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    funny how you come out when the stock does well and hide in your hole when its tanking, dont worry traders love to manipulate this crappy stock with its small float, when the big investors dump it after their earnings, hope you still believe enough to pick up all of those millions of shares :)
    Apr 30 06:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    theyre way into online tech companies, not sure if they really believe zillow can turn themselves into something more than a middleman company that needs to spend like crazy to make money, trying to short squeeze or has insider info like most of the wall street companies...
    Apr 28 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Move, Inc.: Laying The Foundation For Its Next Leg Up [View article]
    nice piece, i agree if you even want to be in this sector, MOVE inc is the smartest choice

    Z and TRLA had their fun ride, but their inability to control expenses (print shares, sell like crazy...etc) just underlines the fact that they are a pure momentum stock, with 0 unique (patents..etc) features over their competitors, and they have to go after executives to get themselves in the news, because that is the only way they are generating the high growth rates that wall street is demanding, they are spending a ton of money, however the yearly growth rate is forecasted to be 49% this year (which i doubt they will hit), but shows slowing top line growth AND they have not showed slowing down spending, what does that equal? equals 19% hit since their high a couple weeks ago, why?? investment firms know they have played out the "momentum" stock, they are cashing in and there is no one to pick it up, in the same period MOVE is only down about 10% in the nasdaq sell off, due to higher confidence, they are not spending as much, they are established, they are revamping their site....

    what does zillow offer over realtor.com? a couple more widgets? how valuable are they to their core money maker, the realtors? we dont know because they dont publish their churn rate...but im willing to bet not that valuable, so as rates go up and realtors dont spend as much on ads, are they going to stick with zillow?

    i highly doubt it, thats why every quarter you see zillow going after rental sites and getting into that space as its less volatile...

    anyway the dot.com bubble 2.0 will come soon, your Z's and TRLA's along with FB and LNKD and Pandora's will take a huge hit, and MOVE would be a much better play with its current valuation...


    oh and i started shorting at around $50 and double down in the 90s ;)....still holding, the Q1 release should send it to the mid 70s then it will test $50 in my opinion after q2 release
    Apr 28 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    another 5% off for all you zillow supporters, congrats
    Apr 28 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    @MDaceUT, your lucky day, opportunity to buy more at 7% off
    Apr 25 10:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    great examples Surbiton, clearly shows a culture of something from wolf of walls street, the only way to sell middle man garbage is to get more sales people...thats why their SG&A costs will never go down and their lofty margin goals wont even come close to being a reality

    cant wait to see how fast it sinks when the housing market cools off
    Apr 24 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    guess we will see which way it goes in a couple weeks, hope youre diversified
    Apr 24 04:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's In Einhorn's Bubble Basket? [View article]
    couldnt agree more with the overvaluation of Zillow, as soon as the macro economics (fed buy back) turn, these bubbles will burst quickly and the small investment firms propping companies like zillow up will quickly dump them and the typical investor will not be there to pick up any shares....
    Apr 24 11:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Reasons Zillow Is A Sell [View article]
    @MDaceUT i really wonder how old you are, your responses are quite childish

    anyway i sold short more in the 90s and lower 100s, cant wait for the bottom to fall out this earnings release coming up

    also i stopped writing about it, because i made all the points that had to be made and they all still ring true, middle man business model, no unique / valuable technology, they will have to keep buying up startups every year since all the data is available to anyone to put up on a website, all they have is a tiny name recognition in the real estate space, as soon as real estate cools off you will see the top line revenue tumble and their horrible operating margins are going to sink the stock, but anyway ive mentioned this before

    as far as your point about "growing into the PE ratio" i have no idea where you are getting that, please look at their several last releases, their growth rates are slowing down and you will see even a bigger slow down this release...at above 100, the forward PE ratio indicates a growth rate that has to bounce back above 50 or even 60% growth, and all signs point to them slowing down and going below a 50% growth rate....so unfortunately the PE ratio they grow into will be lower than the absurd outlook right now

    again this is a momentum play by a bunch of small firms who know that the buzz words are "hot internet stock"...as soon as the macro economy cools off (fed raises rates) you will see these middle men type companies who are pumped up by investment firms tumble, because at the end of the day people want their money in safe companies, not highly speculative, anyway by the end of 2014 my prediction (which it has always been) Zillow will be back to 20-30 / a share
    Apr 24 10:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Terrific Short-Term Trade, Terrible Long-Term Investment [View article]
    i said easy for a company with a good amount of cash on hand....but not even that much, bet you can get an equivalent site up for a couple million
    Mar 6 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow: Terrific Short-Term Trade, Terrible Long-Term Investment [View article]
    it isnt hard to recreate....its data, put up on a website....simpling raising capital, paying programmers in india to make them a website that returns queries from a data bank...why is that hard??

    thats why zillow is spending a ton of money making their name number one, they know their middle man business is easy to recreate, they want to be so far ahead that only a big name brand...Hmmm, maybe google, which can package it into google earth??? can come in and distrupt

    anyway zillow will never make margins, as soon as it does, their subscribers dry up because they spend all that money on call centers calling and nagging agents to sign up, thats why they only have 2.5% of the realtors, i bet 25-50% already tried them out and dumped them, but they will never publish their turnover rate, so you will never know, but trust me, from what i hear about zillow from realtors, they hate their pushy sales people

    anyway they know real estate is hot and cold, thats why they are jumping into the rental space very fast right now, BUTTTTT, the rental space has a million little zillows that are regional, thats why they bought the big new york rent space site, they will have to do that all over the place

    because lets face it

    paying a programmer to organize and display data on a website IS NOT A HARD BARRIER TO MARKET, THERE ARE NO PATENTS HERE!!!!

    zillow is $20 company at best, by mid this year i believe they will be at $50 and by the start of next in the 20s
    Mar 6 07:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow - Slowing Growth And Escalating Costs Are Cause For Concern [View article]
    great article, what ive been saying for over a year now on here

    1. it has very little to zero proprietary technology and the data that runs its core business is shared by all of its competitors, thus making the barriers to entry in this business very little and competitors (especially on the regional level for both homes and rentals) will keep popping up (do they have enough money to keep buying all of them??)

    2. the perfect storm came when this middle man business got big...A) real estate bounced back in a big way and everyone wanted to play real estate in someway B) all the blue chips were maxed out on growth C) the fed aggressive buy back D) the dot com version 2.0 hit and everyone wanted to get into the high growth rate companies to ride the dows record breaking gains

    3. Zillow management isnt stupid, they saw an unserved market, they saw all these little hedge fund companies saying "lie to me" "tell me you have a 30 billion ad spend market that no one is going after" (Bs btw, more like 10 billion for 100% control of it), "tell us you foresee endless growth and this crazy skyrocketing spend is just to get your "brand" name out there"....well they did....then they sat back and printed stock like crazy and dumped it, and they keep dumping it, and they will keep printing and keep inside selling it, when was the last time you saw an zillow insider BUY stock??? its freaking laughable at this point, it reminds me of boiler room, they pump it, print it, then dump it, the hedge fund guys are loving it because they have a huge short squeeze that is fueling the sky rocketing prices and they unload more and more, but the crash is coming, a respectable firm like GS said its a $75 stock after this earnings call when the pump and dump firms RAISED their targets to $110 to try to push it up higher to dump it again, its morally wrong but legal, anyway...

    4) as you pointed out the top line revenue is sinking, Zillow knows thats why they quickly are trying to get into the rental market, they know mortgages are slowing, real estate is declining, so is their subscriber rate....so they are jumping into a more safe / secure rentals market

    5) they also know that if they stop the ad spend they are done, their cold call centers keep the subscriber rate high and they need to spend that amount of money, but as i said in my previous articles 2014 is when it all goes away, as your charts indicated the turn down has started, competition is growing and even if they keep ramping up their ad spend their revenue growth will still shrink...and my prediction is that when the little companies with their $110 price tags realize the ride is over and reality is going to set in soon, they will dump it and none of the big firms will like it enough to pick it up above $50, in my estimations it will sink to where it really should be, around $20 by the end of 2014

    but in the meantime, you can bet that the "stock based compensation" is going to go through the roof as these guys know they pumped the hell out of this worthless, 0 margin business and itll all crash soon, but anyone who is long a stock with a PE of hundreds in a business that is only different from its other dozen competitors because of name recognition, deserves the crash
    Feb 18 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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