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Oguz Erkol

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  • Citigroup: 4 Near-Term Catalysts That Will Drive Share Price To $70 In 2015 [View article]
    Despite the upcoming developments in the US economy that will make banks stocks shine again, I remain skeptical about some of those stocks, and specifically about Citi.

    Rising volatility will absolutely boost investment banking revenues, that's for sure, but why would I buy Citi because of that? There are other banks that would benefit much more from the rising market. Let us consider Goldman and Morgan Stanley at this stage. These banks have more reliance on the market activity. Interestingly we saw these banks surprising analysts to the upside despite the shrinking market.

    Second, and maybe more importantly, among large banks in the US, Citi is the most exposed to emerging markets. This means that Citi is running its lending business in high-rate environments too. Therefore Citi already has a very high-yielding loan portfolio. In my view other stocks would seem like a better play as the rates are set to rise in the United States.

    I do not want to sound like a doomsayer, and I do not mean that the stock would crash, still I guess that the stock may perform worse compared to its peers due to above-mentioned catalysts.
    Nov 5, 2014. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: At An Inflection Point [View article]
    What were your thoughts about BofA when you were 53?
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: At An Inflection Point [View article]
    Today's drop is because of the lower yields in the bond market suggesting the low interest rates are here to stay that will most probably continue to hurt the banks' profitability through their effect on net interest margins. But it is not only Bank of America, many stocks trade at red territory today, particularly the bank stocks. I also do not think that the current situation would last long, this is just temporary. Having significantly beat the Wall Street expectations, Bank of America as a stock being traded at an important discount to its book value is set to perform well in upcoming months.
    Oct 15, 2014. 11:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windows 9: What It Must Accomplish For Microsoft [View article]
    There comes Windows 10
    Sep 30, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkish Temptation: Turkey ETF Looks For More Upside [View article]
    Today's bid drop would be a message to those who immediately need to wake up and smell the coffee.Turkey is not a good play at this time.
    Sep 9, 2014. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter's Valuation Does Not Make Sense [View article]
    I agree with the author. Despite the unrealistic growth projections, super social premium, and other stuff from the world of pink dreams, the stock is still overvalued. I think the problem is with the business model Twitter is currently implying which has not been able to generate a meaningful income so far. Nevertheless I can't regret that Twitter is a great social media platform but it is hard to say the same for the stock.
    Aug 29, 2014. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Executive Changes At Bank Of America [View article]
    I think this assignment has nothing to do with the company's strategy and it absolutely has no influence on the direction the company is moving. To tell the truth assigning someone coming from investment banking universe as COO is simply a mistake. In most banks we see COOs with audit or accounting experience. But, on the other hand, what I find strange is that Morgan Stanley is reporting record profit while investment bankers are weeping around and complaining about low segment revenue. Things may change once the volatility rises so that trading activities rise leading investment bank revenues to surge. This is my opinion about the industry in general. I don't see BAC offering any reward at even current entry points.
    Aug 20, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Blue Dollar Market Hits 60% Premium To Official Rate [View article]
    Seems like a buy in 2 years' time.
    Aug 15, 2014. 05:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Countries Are Hot? What Should A Momentum Investor Look At Now? [View article]
    Get off Turkey easy when you have the chance.
    Aug 11, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Negative Rates Are Not Enough [View article]
    Thanks for the article, I really enjoyed reading it. I liked -10% deposit rate idea, this was my favorite part of the article. But there's one more thing. It looks like you use BS quote for Royal Bank of Scotland, which actually should have been RBS.
    Jul 10, 2014. 02:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs: Still Not Attractive Enough [View article]
    In general I agree with you that the bank a good management, that's an important strength, but I just need to see if the slowing activity in trading business is cyclical or secular, then the outlook for the stock will become more visible in my opinion. Once a recovery in the business perceived, GS will be many investors' favorite play. However if you had a good entry point, it is good be long on the stock right now.
    Jul 2, 2014. 06:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Isis - Addressing Some Of The Bull Arguments To My Short Thesis [View article]
    A meteor is expected to hit ISIS headquarters, so sell it before it's too late.
    Jul 1, 2014. 12:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo - The Best Play On U.S. Housing Recovery [View article]
    With the progress Wells Fargo has made so far, it is symbolizing the US recovery in a sense. And it is the best prepared mega-cap bank for the renascent economy. Therefore I in general terms agree with the ideas Mr. Bilal Liaqat had above. Thanks for the article.
    Jun 30, 2014. 10:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo: Still A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. Own if Buffett owns is a nice behavioural approach that has been extremely profitable to date.

    It is also very clear that WFC is the stock that every investor with a conservative attitude must have.
    Jun 29, 2014. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Signs China's Economy Is Headed For Collapse [View article]
    While Japan experienced the Meiji Restoration that led the nation emerge as a modernized nation in the beginning of 20th century, Chinese emperor was banning any kind of foreign trade in order to prevent international interaction that would result in paradigm shift in power.

    While Japan replaced imperial rule with a form of Western-style liberal democracy by issuing the post-war Constitution of Japan, in China Maoists came to power and then declared the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

    Until the 90s Japanese people at least had had the ability to make decisions freely for choosing the political party to rule their country. In China, still one party has all of seats in the parliament.

    It does not make sense comparing the modern city-states such as Singapore to the conventional states in term of democracy, free-market.

    Meanwhile Lee Kuan Yew is one of my political idols and a person that I feel extremely lucky for meeting with in person.
    Jun 28, 2014. 09:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment