Ohad Hammer

Ikanos Communications: How Big is The VDSL Market? (Part II)

Hi Andy

I think that VDSL is a transitional technology, however, the transition is going ot take quite a while...
According to estiamtes, the number of broadband subs in 2010-2011 is expected to top 500M, but only 10-15% of them will be FTTH. What will happen with all the other DSL subs (300+ million )? In addition, some of the FTTH users will actually be FTTB, like we've seen in Japan and like we're going to see in the US.

Regarding the comaprison of pure FTTH to FTTB+VDSL, it depends on who u ask. FTTH is definitely cheaper and easier to maintain, and bendable fiber will likely make it easier to deploy, but wiring every apartment in high risers directly to fiber doesn't seem like the ideal solution imho.
Actually, according to one research company, even in Japan with its high fiber penetration and competitive market, there was a trend towards VDSL in the 3rd Q:

"The dominant Japanese market continues to move towards a higher percentage of MDU subscribers, increasing the number of VDSL ports while reducing the number of FTTH ports."


lw.pennnet.com/display.../


Best,
Ohad