Ohad Hammer

Ohad Hammer
Contributor since: 2007
In the short run, both agents compete for the same dual refractory patient population. Long run, they will probably be given in combination or sequentially given the different MOAs.
Ohad
Hi Gary,
I am following IMGN closely but still thinks T-DM1 is baked in and i m still waiting for the next catalyst.
Ohad
Sorry, I don't follow IMUC closely.
Steven- my main fear is that if you accept 1 mg/kg is highly efficacious and 1.5 mg/kg isn't, the difference in terms of exposure is probably not meaningful. So going forward when you have large number of patients, some of them might have exposure similar to 1.5 mg/kg.
Ohad
Thanks, happy holidays and may we all have a prosperous 2013.
Ohad
I disagree with their assessment and believe there is a high (~70%) probability of approval, but that scenario cannot be ignored. The negative overall survival trend is definitely there. While I view it as a minor issue that can be easily explained by tivo's activity, the bottom line is that the control arm did better than the experimental arm.
Ohad
Yes AVEO is still a buy imo. Didn't understand the Nexavar part
Ohad
With respect to Sutent, you're correct (actual number is 11 months) and AVEO can't claim tivo is superior than Sutent, only that it is much safer.
Geographical distribution- Votrient was also approved based on a p3 conducted primarily in eastern europe.
Nexavar - This was my main point but turns out that Nexavar can be used more efficiently, probably due to management of AEs.
Ohad
Thanks both for the feedback.
mabiotechinvestor, there are all sorts of parameters I didn't include. Including cash can go both ways as AVEO will have to raise more cash to support development in additional indications, not to mention establishing a US sales-force.
There is obviously additional value in their early stage pipeline and discovery platform.
Ohad
Hi RP,
SNTA's current valuation is fair based on the assumptions I provided in the article. Needless to say, these are just assumptions and changing them can take you to different directions in both ways.
Have to admit I don't understand INFI's recent run, which is probably related more to their PI3K gamma/delta molecules than to their Hsp90 program.
I wish EXEL had performed half as well as INFI/SNTA, but the GDC-0973 story is a real bonus imo.
Ohad
Uncommon sense invedtibf- thanks, they are targeting all adeno patients, regardless of biomarkers. Still, i am sure they will stratify patients based on genetic alterations to make sure arms are balanced.
Roman- snta is still looking at all sorts of subgroups, either predefined by them prior to p2 or exploratory ones. Eventually they might have populations in which ganetespib works better but the p3 population is unselected adeno-NSCLC.
Ohad
Yes.
Ohad
Only in 2014 after they have p3 data from cabo or GDC-0973. They have sufficient cash until then.
Ohad
imo the structure exel chose was legitimate although it certainly has drawbacks. I wasn't under the impression management didn't care about investors. They probably wanted to make sure they have the required funds to get cabo approved and launched in the US.

Ohad
Thanks, yes I'll discuss cabo on sunday.
Ohad
Haven't been following ZLCS and SPPI closely.
Agree about YMI's market cap, there is room to grow there imo.
Ohad
Kenny - I am not following them closely.
RP- I will try to elaborate on YMI in a different article. Generally, my assumption is that they will continue to show positive data at ASH wrt anemia (but eventually they will need to corroborate it in p3) and start p3 in the coming months.
INCY's sales have been disappointing to some but imo the implications regarding the market potential are limited. $120M for the 1st year of sales in the US alone implies a pretty large market.
Besides, JAK inhibitors have potential beyond myelofibrosis and even beyond myeloproliferative diseases.
Ohad
Agree there is a route as a pain medication but then the value is limited.it's somewhat different than dmab which is approved based on reduction of bone-related events.
Ohad
So far what we have is indirect evidence that cabo makes bone mets go away or at least shrink for a certain period of time. The two unknowns are:
1) are bone mets really shrinking ?
2) is that clinically meaningful?
My answer to both questions is "yes", but there is still no proof for that. Algeta's case is a great indication that by targeting bones you can increase survival.
Ohad
Agree, EXEL is not popular these days but this round was probably the last major dilution at these price levels until p3 data. Until 2014 they have no need to raise capital, and after 2014, they'll either have a great asset or a failed drug.
Ohad
Agree, the sample size is small but there are too many signals across the different groups to make the preliminary benefit coincidental. There is no guarantee these results will be replicated in larger trials, but that's the nature of the beast.
Ohad
Early signs of activity is good, visual toxicities are bad.
Ohad
Will try to publish something over the weekend.
Ohad
Thanks for the kind words. Indeed, exciting times for oncology drug development.
Ohad
gbstern - Thanks for the kind words. I know IMUC but haven't been following it closely. Agree with your assessment, p2 data is make or break point. kudos to them for running such a robust randomized p2.
Ohad
Hi Steven
Agree on Morphosys, a terrific platform and great biz model (profitable). The market is still looking for antibodies with clear clinical POC.
Re ADC in solid tumors, T-DM1 certainly addressed that question.
Ohad
Theoretically yes, but that's not a desirable label for a drug with profound anti-cancer activities.
Ohad
Jean , thanks for the feedback!
Bryan - to my knowledge this extent of bone scan resolution is not seen with any other drugs.
Sorry Kenny, not following them closely.
Ohad
Thanks, I don't think they'll have any meaningful data from that study (started Dec 2011)
Ohad
PCYC has a fantastic drug that is going to revolutionize hematology similarly to what Rituxan did in my opinion. Still, as the co is starting phase III studies there are not a lot of catalysts in the near future and expectations are quite high.
Ohad
Have to admit my knowledge in HIV is very limited. The way I see it, by branching out to non-HIV areas (HCV, hematology, CV and fibrosis), GILD hopes to offset erosion in its HIV franchise.
Ohad
I was surprised they are presenting the data at AACR and not at ASCO. The positive thing is that we'll see the data much earlier than I expected.
Ohad
Maybe there is an inverse correlation between th amount of words I write on a stock and the return it brings...
Ohad