Ohad Hammer

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

Thanks, jturano7423.

I don't think it has a lot to do with guts, but basic common sense ( which seems to be a scarce commodity these days). History shows that people tend to exaggerate to both ways, and what we're witnessing, including today's selloff is merely a result of irrational behavior. Yes, things don't look good at the moment but in my opinion, now is the time to build positions selectively in segments and companies who can weather the storm. I think good biotech companies represent such a tremendous opportunity because their products and technology will always be in demand. Even companies who won't have a commercially available drug in the near future will be able to license drugs and technology to the pharmaceutical giants, who have deep pockets and are starved for new drugs. Remember: There is always a good market for good drugs.
I personally feel much more comfortable buying today, when all the fund managers and investors are dumping everything they have. They were the ones that accumulated all these stocks in the past year or two.

Ohad

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

Sorry petpesie, I am not familiar with BioMS. I am sure there are plenty of biotech companies that are suffering as a result of this panic. From what you describe, it is in good position because it has Lilly paying for clinical development, and it doesn't seem that it would stop doing just because there's a recession.

Licensing Deal Is Imminent for ArQule

Thanks Basel Expat.

EXEL looks great at the current price. Similar to the overall market, all bad news (cash burn) are factored in and when multiple licensing deals are signed, I see it going substantially higher. It is less risky than ARQL, no doubt, thanks to its broad portfolio, and this should be ARQL's model as well.

EXEL just got involved in another crowded "next big thing" area yesterday, Hsp90 inhibitors. In this case it is lagging behind BMS
and SNTA among others.

Ohad

Licensing Deal Is Imminent for ArQule

Thanks

I Don't follow ARIA too closely.

Exelixis: A Platform Company for Oncology

Thanks biocore
It's very hard to predict anything in this kind of environment, but as you can see, after reaching the 5-6$ level, the stock looks pretty strong. I think that when EXEL begins to announce licensing deals for several of its compounds already next month, investors will realize that, under no circumstances will the company raise capital at the current price level. They will use the Deerfield facility to pay back GSK, since it will probably decide not opt-in on any of the joint compounds.
8$ is a reasonable price target for year end, imo.

Ohad

Exelixis: A Platform Company for Oncology

The cash issue is the most important factor in thenear term, no doubt. I will try to touch on that matter in the future, but that's an issue everybody including company's mangement is aware of. I expect they'll start to monetizing their portfolio in Q4, after the GSK decision(s). I hear they are very close to siging a deal for one of their PI3K compounds, which are not part the GSK collaboration.

Micromet: Another Seal of Approval

Thanks User 250248!

Thirstycamel, I certainly see your point. Anything can happen with a company like MITI, but anything also includes negative events. A high profile collaboration can certainly lead to another jump in the price of the stock, but if I had to guess, they'll do a secondary very soon. They would be crazy not to...

Ohad

Micromet: Another Seal of Approval

thanks thirstycamel


I suggested taking money off the table because the recent climb wasn't based on anything new, fundamentally and partially because I speculate they’ll do a secondary soon, given the high stock price. I don’t believe in trading biotechs, but in this case, I did sell some MITI on Wednesday, so far an unwise move that cost me money, looking at the current pps…
I think that in many cases, investors ignore timing issues in drug development and although I expect good things from MITI down the road, the next data will be published only in the ASH annual meeting.
You mentioned the SGN-40 deal so there is one final point I want to make. SGEN got such a lucrative deal because it stroke it after the proof of concept clinical trial whereas MITI has already partnered MT103. Had MITI waited till now, they could have gotten a very nice deal.
Ohad

Genentech’s New ADC Platform Has Much Potential, but Is Yet to Be Tested on Humans

They might want to have PFS data from the 100 patient phase II trial before committing more resources. In the meantime, they are making all the necessary arrangements for a pivotal study. The phase II study in Tykerb relapsed patients can be amended into a pivotal trial so the lack of announcement does not delay the commercialization of T-DM1.

Poniard Pharmaceuticals: Platinum Rediscovered (Part II)

Thanks.
The EXEL piece will be published next week end. They must wait to GSK's decision in order to monetize their portoflio, but I expect several deals already this year.

Ohad

Poniard Pharmaceuticals: Platinum Rediscovered (Part II)

Indeed, I am very bullish on EXEL. I don't have any writeups on them, maybe later this year, if I have the time.
EXEL has so many shots on goal, with an excellent strategy of focusing on niche markets first, so the risk/reward ratio is quite compelling.

Immunogen's Wild Swings Due to Lack of Information at ASCO

No doubt MITI is one of hte most exciting biotechs out there:

www.hammerstockblog.co.../

btw, the dose was 60 micrograms per m2

Immunogen's Wild Swings Due to Lack of Information at ASCO

No doubt MITI is one of the most exciting biotech companies out there.

www.hammerstockblog.co.../


btw, the dose was 60 micrograms per m2

Investing in miRNA: Beware the Hype, Follow the Money

ROSG is not like other pharmaceutical companies simply because they are focused on diagnostics, with a huge near term potential. By this time next year, they should have 3 products in the market, in addition to several other submitted tests.

Immunogen and Seattle Genetics: Verging on an Inflection Point

Thanks,

Hopefully next week...