Ohad Hammer

Top Biotech Picks for ASCO 2009 (Part I)

As I wrote, the list is incomplete. Besides, most of the important data for ALTH's drug is already known and were submitted to the FDA.

Micromet: More Reasons for Optimism

I am not aware of a SGEN drug for ALL.
They have drugs for all the other acronyms, NHL, AML,MM,HL and ALCL from what I know ;)

SGEN is developing an anti-CD19 antibody drug conjugate but it is still in pre clinical stages, so I don't know which patient population they'll target.

ohad

Micromet: More Reasons for Optimism

I think most of the negative sentiment can be attributed to the break up from Medimmune. I hope that next month MITI will prove that MEDI's decision had nothing to do with the data.
With respect to the discrepancy between fundamentals and market reaction, we'll have to wait and see. I personally believe that we'll see whether the market was right about MITI very soon.

ohad

Micromet: More Reasons for Optimism

Hi Joe

Hopefully you are right regarding the ALL data. One thing is for sure, this company is getting a lot of attention.

Ohad

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

beta delta
I am familiar with the company, but not intimately enough for having an opinion. The idea behind TNFerade is very exciting and has broad applications and the data seems pretty good in pancreatic and H&N cancers. Neverthless, I would be very hesitant in investing in the company before the update in pancreatic cancer, where nothing seems to work.

ohad

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

Thanks, KevinMBK.
I don't follow CYPB closely, but I think there is a lot of skepticism towards upcoming phase III results for milnacipran . Their cash position is enviable, no doubt.

Ohad

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

Thanks, jturano7423.

I don't think it has a lot to do with guts, but basic common sense ( which seems to be a scarce commodity these days). History shows that people tend to exaggerate to both ways, and what we're witnessing, including today's selloff is merely a result of irrational behavior. Yes, things don't look good at the moment but in my opinion, now is the time to build positions selectively in segments and companies who can weather the storm. I think good biotech companies represent such a tremendous opportunity because their products and technology will always be in demand. Even companies who won't have a commercially available drug in the near future will be able to license drugs and technology to the pharmaceutical giants, who have deep pockets and are starved for new drugs. Remember: There is always a good market for good drugs.
I personally feel much more comfortable buying today, when all the fund managers and investors are dumping everything they have. They were the ones that accumulated all these stocks in the past year or two.

Ohad

'When There's Blood in the Streets', Buy Biotech Stocks

Sorry petpesie, I am not familiar with BioMS. I am sure there are plenty of biotech companies that are suffering as a result of this panic. From what you describe, it is in good position because it has Lilly paying for clinical development, and it doesn't seem that it would stop doing just because there's a recession.

Licensing Deal Is Imminent for ArQule

Thanks Basel Expat.

EXEL looks great at the current price. Similar to the overall market, all bad news (cash burn) are factored in and when multiple licensing deals are signed, I see it going substantially higher. It is less risky than ARQL, no doubt, thanks to its broad portfolio, and this should be ARQL's model as well.

EXEL just got involved in another crowded "next big thing" area yesterday, Hsp90 inhibitors. In this case it is lagging behind BMS
and SNTA among others.

Ohad

Licensing Deal Is Imminent for ArQule

Thanks

I Don't follow ARIA too closely.

Exelixis: A Platform Company for Oncology

Thanks biocore
It's very hard to predict anything in this kind of environment, but as you can see, after reaching the 5-6$ level, the stock looks pretty strong. I think that when EXEL begins to announce licensing deals for several of its compounds already next month, investors will realize that, under no circumstances will the company raise capital at the current price level. They will use the Deerfield facility to pay back GSK, since it will probably decide not opt-in on any of the joint compounds.
8$ is a reasonable price target for year end, imo.

Ohad

Exelixis: A Platform Company for Oncology

The cash issue is the most important factor in thenear term, no doubt. I will try to touch on that matter in the future, but that's an issue everybody including company's mangement is aware of. I expect they'll start to monetizing their portfolio in Q4, after the GSK decision(s). I hear they are very close to siging a deal for one of their PI3K compounds, which are not part the GSK collaboration.

Poniard Pharmaceuticals: Platinum Rediscovered (Part II)

Thanks.
The EXEL piece will be published next week end. They must wait to GSK's decision in order to monetize their portoflio, but I expect several deals already this year.

Ohad

Poniard Pharmaceuticals: Platinum Rediscovered (Part II)

Indeed, I am very bullish on EXEL. I don't have any writeups on them, maybe later this year, if I have the time.
EXEL has so many shots on goal, with an excellent strategy of focusing on niche markets first, so the risk/reward ratio is quite compelling.