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  • The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important
    Tue, Apr. 7 UNG 27 Comments

    Summary

    • The largest U.S. natgas play - the Marcellus in Pennsylvania - could peak in production in 2015.
    • After declines in other plays, the U.S. needs Marcellus to keep growing about 0.5 bcf/d per quarter.
    • This could mean natgas prices will move higher - against consensus - in 2015.
  • Why It's The 2009 Bull Market All Over Again
    Thu, Mar. 26 VB, SCHA, JKJ 11 Comments

    Summary

    • A little-followed economic statistic is strongly suggesting U.S. corporate profits will be well ahead of consensus.
    • The Producer Price Index is plunging, while the Consumer Price Index is flat.
    • This means costs are dropping while pricing power is staying steady, enlarging profit margins.
  • U.S. Oil Production Stops Growing In March
    Tue, Mar. 17 USO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • On March 9, the EIA said US oil production would peak March-April 2015; now.
    • But what is their track record in guessing US production—even 1 month out?
    • How should investors be reacting to this out-of-consensus news?
  • When To Buy Energy Financings - And When Not To
    Wed, Feb. 25 RENFF, CWEGF, CVE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The equity window has opened - for a short time, anyway - for junior oil companies.
    • But these financings are being done at 52-week lows.
    • Investors need to decide: Is the company being opportunistic or desperate?
  • The New Kid On The Block Is Generating Controversy
    Thu, Feb. 12 SVRGF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Seven Generations Energy has a large land base in arguably the sweetest spot (Kakwa) of the most economic energy play (the Montney) in Canada.
    • Take-or-pay provisions are forcing them to spend $1.6 billion this year in the face of low commodity prices.
    • Seven Generations Energy will outspend cash flow by 300% in both 2015 and 2016.
  • Is It Time For A New Paradigm?
    Tue, Feb. 10 USO, OIL, UCO 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The only thing anyone knows for sure in this oil market is that NOBODY knows when the turn is coming or how steep or shallow it will be.
    • Producers seem to think that this oil price downturn is going to last and that's why they aren't spending any money right now.
    • The good news is that the longer oil prices stay low, the more opportunities will arise for producers.
  • The Games Energy Producers Play (On Investors)
    Fri, Jan. 23 5 Comments

    Summary

    • With the current price of oil investors are being more cautious than ever.
    • There are three "games" energy producers play on investors making their companies and stocks look better than what they are.
    • One of these games for example is that producers are cutting back on 2015 drilling budgets but say they are still growing well over 10%.
  • The Only Bull Market In Gas I See
    Thu, Jan. 22 PNWRF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • It's no surprise that the 50% drop in oil prices has been making news headlines worldwide.
    • The good news is that while oil prices plummet, many junior energy stocks are having 80% off sales or more.
    • One company in particular is trading at one time cash flow and a fraction of its reserve value. It's based out of Turkey- Valeura Energy (PNWRF-PINK).
  • The Very Bearish Case For Canadian Natural Gas
    Dec. 9, 2014 XLE, ERX, IXC 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Alberta gas - all dressed up and no place to go.
    • Marcellus gas could force Canadians to receive huge discounts on gas prices.
    • Investment bank Macquarie says that Marcellus gas floods to the Midwest from the Rocky Mountains will lower gas prices and male it more affordable for Canadians.
  • The Oil Price Is All About ONE Number Right Now
    Dec. 5, 2014 USO, OIL, UCO 58 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors want to know how much U.S. oil production increased in the last week.
    • It's obvious the Saudis want to put a leash on galloping U.S. oil production.
    • Oil production growth in the U.S. from the Shale Revolution has disrupted oil flows and prices like nothing else since the early 1970s.
  • Ethanol - It's About The Economics, Stupid
    Dec. 3, 2014 CORN, FUE 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Profitability is high for ethanol producers right now thanks to cheap corn crops.
    • And there's a good chance it could stay that way for a while with current US ethanol exports at 50 million net gallons.
    • I explain how I made more money in ethanol stocks than anything else in 2014.
  • Is U.S. Oil Production Set To Plummet?
    Nov. 15, 2014 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Chris Theal of Kootenay Capital says American oil production is set for a fast pullback.
    • He expects such a quick turndown in US oil production because most producers receive a discount to WTI, meaning they're receiving even less cash flow.
    • If the bottom in oil price wasn’t already set on November 5th, it's very close.
  • The Only Oil Price Going UP In The World Right Now
    Nov. 6, 2014 PSX, USO, MPC 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Crude oil prices finished Tuesday at their lowest in three years.
    • The upside is that heavy oil producers aren’t hurting - in fact, they’re getting some of the best prices ever in the last five years.
    • It could mean that heavy oil stocks are the best place for energy investors (just not yet).
  • Why It's Different This Time
    Oct. 29, 2014 4 Comments

    Summary

    • These days most junior and intermediate oil stocks are down 30-50% in just 6 weeks.
    • Despite the recent carnage in junior oil stocks, this downturn in oil prices could have a very different outcome, especially for the low cost producers.
    • OGIB shares a couple of things that are different about today's North American oil patch than at any other severe oil price downturn in history.
  • Big NatGas Exports To Mexico In 2015 Is A Pipe Dream
    Oct. 15, 2014 UNG, DGAZ, UGAZ 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The Big Mexican Gas Pipe to Mexico won’t be ready until 2016.
    • The only logical explanation is that Mexico just isn’t ready for more gas coming from the U.S.
    • The good news is that Mexican LNG has picked up the slack.
  • Gazprom: The Greatest Contrarian Call In The Oilpatch Today
    Oct. 8, 2014 OGZPY 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Check out OGIB's latest & greatest Russian o&g stock pick.
    • Gazprom (OTC:OGZPY) currently trades at less than 5 times earnings-- sound too good to be true?
    • It's also one of the largest producers of energy in the world and the single largest producer of natural gas on the entire planet.
  • 2P Or Not 2P
    Sep. 4, 2014 ARNBF 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Investors beware, 2P reports for tight oil and gas plays can leave out key information.
    • Energy stock investors need to be aware of the huge risk they are taking if they rely on the proved and probable reserve data being published by energy producers today.
    • In Part II, I explain how this risk has been created by the horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing revolution - which has completely changed the energy game.
  • Why Don't Your Stocks Go Up? You're Asking The Wrong Questions
    Aug. 23, 2014 PEYUF 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Why are some of your favourite stocks so undervalued?
    • It's time to start looking at the right metrics and asking the right questions.
    • Over time, what will drive company (AND stock) performance is the return that it is generating on the cash it is investing.
  • Energy Sector To Finally Achieve Free Cash Flow
    Aug. 11, 2014 XLE, ERX, VDE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Free cash flow should energize your oil and gas portfolio.
    • A new era of positive, free cash flow should last several years according to Raymond James firm.
    • Rising production and falling supply costs position North American producers as sustainable, free-cash-flow machines for the next 5-10 years—even if energy prices decline slightly.
  • Ethanol Vs. Nat Gas: The Summer 2014 Duel
    Jul. 30, 2014 UNG, PEIX, DGAZ 8 Comments

    Summary

    • What does a cool summer on the East Coast mean for investors?
    • How to invest in the weather - and be sure.
    • What’s bad for natural gas is good for ethanol.
  • Where This Fund Manager Is Investing In The Energy Sector
    Jul. 17, 2014 XLE, ERX, VDE Comment!

    Summary

    • My interview with Martin Pelletier, one of the principals at TriVest Wealth Counsel in Calgary, Alberta.
    • His thoughts on managing risk & picking the right management team.
    • Great strategies for making profits in the energy sector.
  • The Bakken Gets Bigger - Likely A LOT Bigger
    Jun. 11, 2014 CPG, CLR, LEGPF 6 Comments

    Summary

    • It’s hard to imagine that the #1 oil play in all of North America could have such a huge increase in size.
    • Investors made fortunes with the Bakken in its early years, and we're now discovering it's getting bigger and BETTER than ever.
    • A similar investment scenario may now unfold as the Torquay/Three Forks zone gets increasingly tested in the coming months.
  • Here's What Happens When You Only Read The Headline
    May. 28, 2014 PEIX 10 Comments

    Summary

    • On May 1st, Pacific Ethanol's stock dropped 12.3%.
    • The problem was the headline – a loss of $0.69 per share which brought in a wave of selling.
    • The stock tanked despite the company announcing record cash flow, record debt reduction and the re-start of an idled ethanol plant.
  • Why Buy $3 Billion Worth Of Gas, Sight Unseen?
    Mar. 21, 2014 CNQ, DVN 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Smart money isn’t making big investments in natural gas. It’s making HUGE investments.
    • Aside from the cold, the last week of February was notable for extremely bullish natural gas storage numbers.
    • The demand side is looking equally bullish.
  • Energy Sectors Poised To Run... Except One
    Mar. 13, 2014 DBE, RJN, JJE 4 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. energy stocks outperformed Canadian ones last year—but in the last few months, E&P equities in the Great White North have soared.
    • Natural gas prices have rocketed up, thanks to repeated cycles of the Polar Vortex.
    • The continued growth of the oilsands—along with the potential of LNG exports off Canada’s west coast—have kept a bid under the services sector.
  • Why Shell Needs This Junior's Big Play
    Feb. 27, 2014 PENYF 4 Comments
  • How To Win Bigger Than The Bakken
    Feb. 21, 2014 MDLNF 23 Comments
  • Why North American Oil Prices Are Set For A Big Drop
    Jan. 31, 2014 USO, OIL, UCO 5 Comments
  • Investing In Oil Refinery Stocks: Trading The Spread
    Jan. 10, 2014 NBR, HAL, HP 4 Comments
  • Goldman Sachs Report: Is There No End To The Bakken Trend?
    Editors' Pick • Nov. 12, 2013 CLR, EOG, WLL 8 Comments
  • The Bakken Oil Formation's Breakout Play: Triangle Petroleum
    Oct. 31, 2013 TPLM 18 Comments
  • The Shale Gas Boom: Energy's 'Big Lie' Of The Century?
    Oct. 8, 2013 IEO, PXE, XOP 34 Comments