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The Marcellus Is Close To Peak Production - Here's Why This Is So Important
- The largest U.S. natgas play - the Marcellus in Pennsylvania - could peak in production in 2015.
- After declines in other plays, the U.S. needs Marcellus to keep growing about 0.5 bcf/d per quarter.
- This could mean natgas prices will move higher - against consensus - in 2015.
Why It's The 2009 Bull Market All Over Again
- A little-followed economic statistic is strongly suggesting U.S. corporate profits will be well ahead of consensus.
- The Producer Price Index is plunging, while the Consumer Price Index is flat.
- This means costs are dropping while pricing power is staying steady, enlarging profit margins.
U.S. Oil Production Stops Growing In March
- On March 9, the EIA said US oil production would peak March-April 2015; now.
- But what is their track record in guessing US production—even 1 month out?
- How should investors be reacting to this out-of-consensus news?
When To Buy Energy Financings - And When Not To
- The equity window has opened - for a short time, anyway - for junior oil companies.
- But these financings are being done at 52-week lows.
- Investors need to decide: Is the company being opportunistic or desperate?
The New Kid On The Block Is Generating Controversy
- Seven Generations Energy has a large land base in arguably the sweetest spot (Kakwa) of the most economic energy play (the Montney) in Canada.
- Take-or-pay provisions are forcing them to spend $1.6 billion this year in the face of low commodity prices.
- Seven Generations Energy will outspend cash flow by 300% in both 2015 and 2016.
Is It Time For A New Paradigm?
- The only thing anyone knows for sure in this oil market is that NOBODY knows when the turn is coming or how steep or shallow it will be.
- Producers seem to think that this oil price downturn is going to last and that's why they aren't spending any money right now.
- The good news is that the longer oil prices stay low, the more opportunities will arise for producers.
The Games Energy Producers Play (On Investors)
Fri, Jan. 23 • 5 Comments
- With the current price of oil investors are being more cautious than ever.
- There are three "games" energy producers play on investors making their companies and stocks look better than what they are.
- One of these games for example is that producers are cutting back on 2015 drilling budgets but say they are still growing well over 10%.
The Only Bull Market In Gas I See
- It's no surprise that the 50% drop in oil prices has been making news headlines worldwide.
- The good news is that while oil prices plummet, many junior energy stocks are having 80% off sales or more.
- One company in particular is trading at one time cash flow and a fraction of its reserve value. It's based out of Turkey- Valeura Energy (PNWRF-PINK).
The Very Bearish Case For Canadian Natural Gas
- Alberta gas - all dressed up and no place to go.
- Marcellus gas could force Canadians to receive huge discounts on gas prices.
- Investment bank Macquarie says that Marcellus gas floods to the Midwest from the Rocky Mountains will lower gas prices and male it more affordable for Canadians.
The Oil Price Is All About ONE Number Right Now
- Investors want to know how much U.S. oil production increased in the last week.
- It's obvious the Saudis want to put a leash on galloping U.S. oil production.
- Oil production growth in the U.S. from the Shale Revolution has disrupted oil flows and prices like nothing else since the early 1970s.
Ethanol - It's About The Economics, Stupid
- Profitability is high for ethanol producers right now thanks to cheap corn crops.
- And there's a good chance it could stay that way for a while with current US ethanol exports at 50 million net gallons.
- I explain how I made more money in ethanol stocks than anything else in 2014.
Is U.S. Oil Production Set To Plummet?
Nov. 15, 2014 • 8 Comments
- Chris Theal of Kootenay Capital says American oil production is set for a fast pullback.
- He expects such a quick turndown in US oil production because most producers receive a discount to WTI, meaning they're receiving even less cash flow.
- If the bottom in oil price wasn’t already set on November 5th, it's very close.
The Only Oil Price Going UP In The World Right Now
- Crude oil prices finished Tuesday at their lowest in three years.
- The upside is that heavy oil producers aren’t hurting - in fact, they’re getting some of the best prices ever in the last five years.
- It could mean that heavy oil stocks are the best place for energy investors (just not yet).
Why It's Different This Time
Oct. 29, 2014 • 4 Comments
- These days most junior and intermediate oil stocks are down 30-50% in just 6 weeks.
- Despite the recent carnage in junior oil stocks, this downturn in oil prices could have a very different outcome, especially for the low cost producers.
- OGIB shares a couple of things that are different about today's North American oil patch than at any other severe oil price downturn in history.
Big NatGas Exports To Mexico In 2015 Is A Pipe Dream
- The Big Mexican Gas Pipe to Mexico won’t be ready until 2016.
- The only logical explanation is that Mexico just isn’t ready for more gas coming from the U.S.
- The good news is that Mexican LNG has picked up the slack.
Gazprom: The Greatest Contrarian Call In The Oilpatch Today
- Check out OGIB's latest & greatest Russian o&g stock pick.
- Gazprom (OTC:OGZPY) currently trades at less than 5 times earnings-- sound too good to be true?
- It's also one of the largest producers of energy in the world and the single largest producer of natural gas on the entire planet.
2P Or Not 2P
- Investors beware, 2P reports for tight oil and gas plays can leave out key information.
- Energy stock investors need to be aware of the huge risk they are taking if they rely on the proved and probable reserve data being published by energy producers today.
- In Part II, I explain how this risk has been created by the horizontal drilling and multi-stage fracturing revolution - which has completely changed the energy game.
Why Don't Your Stocks Go Up? You're Asking The Wrong Questions
- Why are some of your favourite stocks so undervalued?
- It's time to start looking at the right metrics and asking the right questions.
- Over time, what will drive company (AND stock) performance is the return that it is generating on the cash it is investing.
Energy Sector To Finally Achieve Free Cash Flow
- Free cash flow should energize your oil and gas portfolio.
- A new era of positive, free cash flow should last several years according to Raymond James firm.
- Rising production and falling supply costs position North American producers as sustainable, free-cash-flow machines for the next 5-10 years—even if energy prices decline slightly.
Ethanol Vs. Nat Gas: The Summer 2014 Duel
- What does a cool summer on the East Coast mean for investors?
- How to invest in the weather - and be sure.
- What’s bad for natural gas is good for ethanol.
Where This Fund Manager Is Investing In The Energy Sector
- My interview with Martin Pelletier, one of the principals at TriVest Wealth Counsel in Calgary, Alberta.
- His thoughts on managing risk & picking the right management team.
- Great strategies for making profits in the energy sector.
The Bakken Gets Bigger - Likely A LOT Bigger
- It’s hard to imagine that the #1 oil play in all of North America could have such a huge increase in size.
- Investors made fortunes with the Bakken in its early years, and we're now discovering it's getting bigger and BETTER than ever.
- A similar investment scenario may now unfold as the Torquay/Three Forks zone gets increasingly tested in the coming months.
Here's What Happens When You Only Read The Headline
- On May 1st, Pacific Ethanol's stock dropped 12.3%.
- The problem was the headline – a loss of $0.69 per share which brought in a wave of selling.
- The stock tanked despite the company announcing record cash flow, record debt reduction and the re-start of an idled ethanol plant.
Why Buy $3 Billion Worth Of Gas, Sight Unseen?
- Smart money isn’t making big investments in natural gas. It’s making HUGE investments.
- Aside from the cold, the last week of February was notable for extremely bullish natural gas storage numbers.
- The demand side is looking equally bullish.
Energy Sectors Poised To Run... Except One
- U.S. energy stocks outperformed Canadian ones last year—but in the last few months, E&P equities in the Great White North have soared.
- Natural gas prices have rocketed up, thanks to repeated cycles of the Polar Vortex.
- The continued growth of the oilsands—along with the potential of LNG exports off Canada’s west coast—have kept a bid under the services sector.
- Why Shell Needs This Junior's Big Play
- How To Win Bigger Than The Bakken
- Why North American Oil Prices Are Set For A Big Drop
- Investing In Oil Refinery Stocks: Trading The Spread
- Goldman Sachs Report: Is There No End To The Bakken Trend?
- The Bakken Oil Formation's Breakout Play: Triangle Petroleum
- The Shale Gas Boom: Energy's 'Big Lie' Of The Century?