Old Trader

Where's the Growth in PC Sales?

Isn't the fact that PC sales are still lackluster possibly due to people waiting a bit longer to make certain that 7 is as good as its touted to be (although early reports I've seen are encouraging).

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Doc and Chancer, Once again, great minds think alike, LOL.

From Micro to Macro: No Soft Landing for This Economy

I wonder what sector will attempt to "fill the gap" in our economy...(not that I expect it to be filled anytime soon...).

Dubai: A Stark Reminder of a Fragile Economy

There's no shortage of other shaky credit structures globally...hopefully, Dubai's issues won't have a knock-on effect, although EMs will take a big hit, at least short term.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

I can't help but wonder if Dubai is just the first shoe. This news has overshadowed Japan's Finance Minister thinking of asking for CB intervention on behalf of the yen, and the fact Vietnam has devalued the dong.

Not Tempted by Hospital Properties Trust's Reinstated Dividend

" Yields on REIT stocks doubled throughout 2008 as the stocks came tumbling down due to high leverage and poor loan quality at so many REITs."

The author seems to have lumped operating REITs and mortgage REITs into the same basket, which throws doubt on the whole article.

Bonds vs. Bond ETFs

Mr. MacDonald,

I'm glad you brought up the diversification issue, which I think is a fairly important one. Months ago, I had a small dialog, here on SA, with another poster about direct bond ownership vs. bond ETFs, and my back of the envelope calculations also showed that somewhere in the neighborhood of $75-$100k would be needed to put together a reasonably diversified bond allocation. (Note: I claim no particular expertise in fixed income analysis).

A question...rather than rolling over bonds, what are your thoughts on holding to maturity, which, under certain conditions, could add capital appreciation to yield, assuming bonds were bought in the secondary market, rather than new issuance?

Bond and Stock Price Returns vs. Total Returns

Mr. Shaw,

A good, informative article, and thanks for adding the link to "Old Normal Allocation Becomes the New Normal", as I had not seen it. As an aside, as I was digesting my Thanksgiving dinner, I found myself wondering how the old time "standard" 60/30/10 allocation model was faring....and you've provided the answer.

Capital Spending Has Yet to Get Off the Ground

Its not a huge surprise that cap ex would be low, given that most of the corporate guidance (when it exists) is cautious, at best, for the most part. When a CEO or CFO says they see things as "stabilizing", that's hardly a clarion call to rush out and retool a few factories, or build a new one.

Additionally, given that banks aren't lending, I'm fairly sure most business people are hanging onto more of their cash than would have been the case a couple of years ago, when banks could be relied on to cover any cash flow "hiccups".

Trade Desk Thoughts: Hedge the Drop

A2,

After my previous response, I did some more mulling over your query. You should be aware that not many stocks have dual exchange listing, so if, for example, you had a big chunk of JNJ, its unlikely that it trades on any other exchange than the NYSE.

Within the context of the article (hedging), I think (not 100% sure) that if your portfolio was composed of large cap US stocks, for example and you wished to hedge against a drop in portfolio value, you might have to resort to put options on either the Dow, or the S&P, for example. I don't think that ETFs like SDS, or DOG trade internationally.

Trade Desk Thoughts: Hedge the Drop

A2,

If you've got an account at a firm that has an international desk, you should be able to place trades through them on foreign exchanges. Hope that helps a bit. When calling around, that's a question you should ask....typically, not info you'll find on most firms' web sites, or in their print/TV ads.

Hope that's of some help.


On Nov 26 11:03 AM Anonymous 2 wrote:

> So how specifically does a individual retail investor enter and trade
> markets on a Turkey holiday be it mid week or on a saturday or Sunday.
> Must he have an ac with a brokerage firm which will take his trade
> on a designated international market? I realize this is an open question
> - hard to answer "specifically" - but what is involved administratively
> - logistically. I am retired broker - siort of a grand pa with a
> desire to play in todays stadium.

Will Obama Replace Geithner with Dimon?

Wildhawk,

Its my understanding that Dimon has, in the past, expressed interest in government service. History is replete with examples of people who've moved back and forth between the private sector, and high appointed gov. positions. After all, it looks great on the resume, and strokes the ego.


On Nov 26 09:45 AM Wildhawk wrote:

> All this talk of Obama naming Dimon as a replacement for Geitner
> misses an enormously large point: Dimon would have to WANT to take
> the Treasury post. Does anyone actually think Dimon would want to
> give up his job running one of the 5 most powerful companies in the
> world to take a job make $200k a year as a bueauracrat, no matter
> how powerful the post? Not going to happen, folks, nor do we want
> it to happen. The comments to the effect of the fox guarding the
> hen house are spot on...

Barton Biggs on the Economy

I watched this the other evening, and Barton is more bullish than I am, but he had some interesting thoughts on frontier markets.

Unemployment Claims: Best Data We've Seen in a Long Time

Along with seasonal retail hiring (which may be less than normal, due to uncertainty as to the strength of holiday sales), there's also holiday hiring by UPS and FedEx, a not inconsiderable number (recall seeing something on the order of 50k recent hires by UPS...not certain what portion of that reflects seasonal).

Today's Jobless Claims Report Shows Additional Drop in Both Initial and Continuing Claims

When I heard the latest job numbers, I almost immediately started wondering how much, if any, impact holiday hiring had/is having? Both UPS and FedEx typically hire large numbers of temp workers to deal with the holiday shipping rush.....same is true with retailers, although with a lot of doubt as to how strong retail will be, this holiday season, its likely retail hiring won't be as strong as it has been in the past.

In any case, all of this hiring is temporary in nature.