Old Trader

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

"Time to short Bucky?"

From what I'm reading on various FX blogs, that's currently one of the most crowded trades currently known to Man. Trichet has joined the "jawbone the dollar higher" chorus, as the ECB stands pat on rates.

I think what's most important about AA was their statement that they're seeing some stability in certain markets (NOT the US and the EU zone, however).

Gone Nowhere in 8 Years

Agreed that this is interesting data, which certainly makes me wonder about, and feel sorry for those relying on index funds who've drunk that particular form of Kool Aid.

Report from Europe: U.S. Close vs. China Rebound

Yes, I'd wondered about the change, as well....Mole always went well with morning coffee. At least you're still writing for your "fans"!


On Sep 03 01:15 PM optionsgirl wrote:

> Another great article, Mole. Miss you in the mornings, though.

Has the Dollar Hit a Major Bottom?

Of all the various iterations of TA, I'm the least swayed by Elliot Wave Analysis. While there well may be something to it, it seems its practioners are always getting their wave count wrong.

As Earnings Are Upon Us, Some Goldman Thoughts

"I guess they’re the easy target because the company flat out gets the smartest, most Machiavellian young people on the planet to join its ranks, and it’s been that way not just for years, but for decades."

Being the "smartest" is certainly a good thing, and something to aspire to. Being "most Machiavellian" is, at best, a left-handed compliment, and something only a REAL POS would aspire to.

Yet Another Huge Economic Number Coming out of China. Hard to Believe

Given that it seems that China has adopted a "Buy Domestic" stance as part of their stimulus plan, if I were Alcoa, I'm not sure how much hope I'd put into Chinese demand helping turn around the slump in demand.

There's a case developing before the WTO, regarding the Chinese purchase of wind turbines, with foreign manufacturers (primarily European) claiming they were excluded from the bidding process, despite having spent many millions on setting up domestic production facilities.

Is Alcoa a Bellwether for the U.S. Economy?

Although Alcoa (and aluminum) can be considered a canary in the coal mine for the overall economy, copper seems to be an even better "leading indicator". It will be interesting to see how the earnings, and more importantly, forward guidance, if any, for the major copper miners pans out.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Regarding the G-8 and "climate change": according to a news report, yesterday, Obama is in a favor of a proposal to cap the rise in global temps by 2 degrees C by 2050! What insanity!!!! How the hell does one "legislate" that?!?!? Morons!!

Profiting from Earnings Season Uncertainty

"In short, this season earnings are not that significant but the forecasts for the rest of the year will determine the market’s direction."

I've noticed that an increasing number of companies have started to refrain from issuing forward guidance when announcing current earnings, which doesn't make life any easier regardless whether one is a "trader" or an "investor".

10 Signs of a Recession

One comment I've seen on a fairly regular basis is releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the market to drive down the price of oil. Only 2 things wrong with that idea. 1) The purpose of the reserve is to provide a safety net for miltary and essential/critical needs in times of supply interruption...NOT to influence market prices. 2)The quantity in the reserve is a drop in the bucket, compared to what the US needs on an annual basis, let alone global demand. Releasing the reserves to lower the price of oil in any meaningful fashion would work about as well as Berneke's and Paulson's "jawboning" the dollar up.

jan