Oliver Muller's Instablog Oliver works with Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai on the FX Spot/Forwards/Swaps desk. Prior to joining SC, Oliver worked at Bank Audi as an equity research analyst. He is also the founder of Campus Society, an online platform for college students. Education: American University of Beirut & UCLA, Economics & Finance Oliver Muller http://seekingalpha.com Short EUR/CAD - May 11, 2012 - Add To Position http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1025964-oliver-muller/610421-short-eur-cad-may-11-2012-add-to-position?source=feed 610421 Following the trade on May 2nd, we are short EUR/CAD around 1.3000.

Add to the position: Short EUR/CAD around 1.2850, move down initial stop to 1.3020, keep Take Profit around 1.2500.

Fundamental:

- Today, Canadian employment figures show greatest jobs increase in 30 years

- Expected: 7,000 new jobs, Actual: 58,000 (8x consensus!)

- Deteriorating European fundamentals, improving Canadian outlook

- Continous shift of funds from Europe to Canada

Technical:

- Finally, the long-awaited breakout

- 1.2951 support shattered

- Next support levels at 1.2884 and 1.2870

EUR/CAD Hourly

(click to enlarge)

Further confirmation of the trade:

- USD/CAD traded a daily high just under its 200-day Moving Average before turning sharply lower.

USD/CAD Daily

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am short [[FX]].

Additional disclosure: I am short EUR/CAD just above 1.3000

]]> Fri, 11 May 2012 11:34:03 -0400 Following the trade on May 2nd, we are short EUR/CAD around 1.3000.

Add to the position: Short EUR/CAD around 1.2850, move down initial stop to 1.3020, keep Take Profit around 1.2500.

Fundamental:

- Today, Canadian employment figures show greatest jobs increase in 30 years

- Expected: 7,000 new jobs, Actual: 58,000 (8x consensus!)

- Deteriorating European fundamentals, improving Canadian outlook

- Continous shift of funds from Europe to Canada

Technical:

- Finally, the long-awaited breakout

- 1.2951 support shattered

- Next support levels at 1.2884 and 1.2870

EUR/CAD Hourly

(click to enlarge)

Further confirmation of the trade:

- USD/CAD traded a daily high just under its 200-day Moving Average before turning sharply lower.

USD/CAD Daily

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am short [[FX]].

Additional disclosure: I am short EUR/CAD just above 1.3000

]]> Short EUR/CAD - May 02, 2012 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1025964-oliver-muller/579241-short-eur-cad-may-02-2012?source=feed 579241 Short EUR/CAD at 1.3000, Stop at 1.3150, Take Profit at 1.2500

(Look to add to Short position below 1.2900)

Fundamentals:

- Bullish on US, Bearish on Europe - helps CAD hurts EUR

- Canadian economy correlated with US

- European PMI data weak

Technicals:

- Very tight range held since beginning of the year

- Trend momentum strongly bearish across short, medium and long-term timeframes

- Limited scope for counter-trend corrections

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am short [[FX]].

Additional disclosure: I am Short EUR/CAD above 1.3000

]]> Thu, 03 May 2012 08:00:29 -0400 Short EUR/CAD at 1.3000, Stop at 1.3150, Take Profit at 1.2500

(Look to add to Short position below 1.2900)

Fundamentals:

- Bullish on US, Bearish on Europe - helps CAD hurts EUR

- Canadian economy correlated with US

- European PMI data weak

Technicals:

- Very tight range held since beginning of the year

- Trend momentum strongly bearish across short, medium and long-term timeframes

- Limited scope for counter-trend corrections

(click to enlarge)

(click to enlarge)

Disclosure: I am short [[FX]].

Additional disclosure: I am Short EUR/CAD above 1.3000

]]> USD/JPY Trade - Jan 31, 2012 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1025964-oliver-muller/265102-usd-jpy-trade-jan-31-2012?source=feed 265102

BUY USD/JPY at 76.00, stop loss at 74.90 - look towards 80.00

Fundamentals:

- Current account support for the yen is disappearing - Japan reporting its first annual trade deficit in 30 years.

- Japan shutting down nuclear facilities, will likely have to keep importing energy - ie. deficits

- Bank of Japan indicated it wants to invest overseas - ie. buying foreign currencies

- Japan's Debt-to-GDP is 200%

]]> Tue, 31 Jan 2012 03:28:07 -0500

BUY USD/JPY at 76.00, stop loss at 74.90 - look towards 80.00

Fundamentals:

- Current account support for the yen is disappearing - Japan reporting its first annual trade deficit in 30 years.

- Japan shutting down nuclear facilities, will likely have to keep importing energy - ie. deficits

- Bank of Japan indicated it wants to invest overseas - ie. buying foreign currencies

- Japan's Debt-to-GDP is 200%

]]> FX