Omer Altay

Long/short equity, deep value, reits
Omer Altay
Long/short equity, deep value, REITs
Contributor since: 2012
Company: Options House - The Broker I use
EQC stock price 100% higher since kicking the Portnoy losers out. 25x ffo as per last q's #s x 4.
Let's look at RMR stocks. GOV is a loser and down nearly over 40% in a year. Same thing for SNH. oh wow, HPT is a gem, only down 25%!
I'll take EQC's 100% gains since booting RMR out.
Don't forget Twitter's net cash position, enterprise value is close to $8B so at $42 user, it would be a much bigger premium than 26% upside.
"The crooks are the private equity activists and shills" the private equity "shills" have unlocked more value in Equity Commonwealth in 2 months than the portnoys could in years. Any move to kick the Portnoys out of SIR would be welcomed by a vast majority of shareholders. That's a fact. Look how overwhelmingly shareholders voted to kick out the loser RMR management.
Twtr is a buy at these prices. Platform has value and cash burn is minimal with huge net cash position.
And the RMR crooks have been excellent at "corporate financial management" right? SIR/GOV/SNH/HPT are all losers - look at their stock prices vs any reit index.
Clearly RMR management have no idea about "corporate financial management". If they followed my simple arithmetic SIR shares would soar, FFO would increase and leverage would decrease
The bullying is bs. People get bad reviews. People get their friends to leave good reviews. They have an algorithm to withhold reviews (positive and negative)
No temper tantrum. Just a conclusion based on the facts. I showed you the math on buybacks funded by asset sales reducing leverage and boosting ffo. You refused to show me your math.
People are overly negative on Yelp. Literally everyone I know uses Yelp regularly to find places to eat. Their user base is real and growing. There is no alternative to Yelp at the moment. Go ahead and trying using Google's garbage alternative. Compare the pictures and review counts to the same Yelp page - Google has 5 reviews for a local place here and 1 picture. For the same restaurant Yelp has over 1,000. This isn't a fluke either. This is for ALmost all listings. Google's own local reviews is a joke and can't compete. That's a fact. Facebook places is unproven and nothing at the moment. Sure it's possible they could provide a real alternative to Yelp, but as is its nothing. Yelp is king and growing. They provide a valuable service. They just need to monetize it better. Oh and they're basically cash flow positive/even. Oh and they have 300+m in cash net of all liabilities. Zillow and Angie's can't say the same thing. Yelp is a winner at this price.
Twitter is a flawed comparison too. Their business is bleeding cash and possibly shrinking now. Yelp is growing and cash flow positive/close to it.
This is an unbelievable buy.
Long at 16. Could be wrong, but this is the only beaten down tech company I like.
Bottom range of their own projects. They projected 0.24 to 0.26, reported 0.24. Not good.
BDCs getting punished.
Indeed. It's obvious he's a pumper/paid shill. Ignores the facts and spews nonsense.
I'd like to hear you guys talk more about obscure companies with catalysts to unlock value. The kind of stuff Andrew typically writes about.
I enjoyed hearing Andrew talk about this kind of stuff in the podcast on Bulldog investor (Nate from Oddballstocks was on there too).
No tantrums. You specifically said that buybacks would be bad for their leverage profile. I proved to you they wouldn't. So either you've been disingenuous this whole time or you have a poor grasp of math. It's one or the other.
You didn't explain to me your math. SIR today can sell $100M in assets, buy back $25M in stock, and retire $75M in debt. This would
1. Boost FFO
2. Decrease leverage
3. Increase share price
4. Lower payout ratio (Paving way for more dividend increases)
5. Reduce management fee
Explain to me how this would hurt credit metrics, Mr. retired credit analyst. Show me the math. Oh wait. You can't.
You must have been a terrible credit analyst, since you can't seem to understand basic math.
Sell $100M in assets. Since SIR is levered about 50%, pay back $75M in debt, so your debt proportion to book equity is actually DECREASED. Spend $25M on buybacks. Rinse and repeat.
So you think they'll dilute even at today's prices after management said explicitly that they wouldn't in the last 2 conference calls? So even you don't trust management! LOL.
You clearly have zero grasp on corporate finance if you think selling assets to buy back stocks would be a bad idea. They can literally boost FFO AND reduce leverage by buying back stock with asset sales. OH and it would reduce the management fee they need to pay, which is probably why they will never do it.
Go ahead, try and explaining to me how asset sale funded buybacks wouldn't be accretive to FFO AND reduce leverage. They can boost their dividend while keeping the payout ratio too. Are you AGAINST higher FFO and higher dividends AND reduced leverage? Explain it to me. Oh wait. you can't, because there's no argument against it. Issuing equity to buy more real estate today would be a huge slap in the face of investors. I will wager anything that an equity raise below $25 will result in shareholder lawsuits and perhaps an activist investor.
The fact that you don't realize how much of a loser RMR companies have been shows you have an agenda. It doesn't take a genius to look at the stock chart and see that it has been plummeting and vastly under performing. You refuse to even acknowledge their under performance and self-serving management's actions. lol.
What kind of retail investor likes seeing their portfolio value go down every year? RMR companies are losers. One of the biggest loser REITs on the market. They're priced the way they are because the market doesn't trust management. "Growing FFO/Dividends" are meaningless to EVERY investor if they're losing their principal.
Activists manipulating? The day an activist investor gets involved with an RMR company, the stock will skyrocket. What percent of retail shareholders supported Corvex when they kicked our the losers at RMR? Think it was over 90%. RMR has an opportunity here to prove the naysayers wrong. BUY BACK stock IMMEDIATELY.
Every $1 spent buying back stocks INCREASES FFO per share. Leverage neutral via asset sales. They won't do it though because it lowers RMR Management fees, which shows rmr REIT management is self-serving.
The investment here is buy in at these levels, and hope RMR stops stealing shareholder money. Risky proposition, but i'm long SIR/GOV waiting to see what happens.
If RMR issues new equity, i'm out. If they sell shares at this price it will be near criminal and I can't wait to tear them apart in a new article. They claimed they wouldn't do it, but I wouldn't be surprised.
Who cares? Stock price keeps hitting lows along with GOV. Loser companies will be losers until stocks start performing.
If they dilute below $20 i'm out. Time will tell if they do or don't. They haven't yet and have explicitly said they won't look at equity financing as of last 2 conf calls. Obv they could be lying and I don't trust management, but at THESE prices risk/rewards looks great. I'll eat my loss if they dilute at these levels.
lol? Currency is a medium of exchange and a remarkable tool for facilitating commerce. I guess you prefer bartering? No idea what else you could possibly mean by your nonsensical comment.
Anyone who thinks the people in the USSR were better off than today's "capitalism" (U.S. Capitalism. Not the nonsense in Russia) is beyond irrational and doesn't warrant any further discussion/response.
I took a minute to look at your comments on Seeking Alpha. You're very pro Russia and keep posting stuff about how bad the West is and our propaganda, lol. Perhaps an ulterior motive at work here. A member of the Agency perhaps?
http://nyti.ms/20hfmyh
tldr: Russia employs A LOT of young people to post pro Russia content all over the internet.
And...? They "existed" for 27 years before the cold war. North Koreans "existed" for a long time after the war too. Doesn't mean they're thriving. Anyone that says the USSR was "thriving" has no grasp on reality. Life for the everyday person was terrible.
Aside from literature, I have my own anecdotal evidence too. My grandma lived within the USSR and told me how terrible things were. Oddly, she always told me how much she loved the good ol days of communism and Stalin, despite describing terrible conditions. Some form of Stockholm syndrome perhaps, especially since Stalin was actively trying to ethnically cleanse her people....
Historical discussion about USSR aside (you're definitely right btw. Chris lives in fantasy land thinking communism was working just fine until those darn Americans "forced" an arms race, lol) what do you think about rsx today? Let us know in comments or article how you trade it. Your calls have been stellar on it.
No position. Just curious/following.
RMR are the crooks. They destroyed shareholder value, stock plummeted to all time lows, only after an activist investor kicked our RMR did EQC shoot up 75%+ and is close to highs now. All RMR companies are near all time lows today (SIR/SNH/GOV/HPT) while EQC (The one company that was able to ditch the RMR crooks) is near highs. Stop distorting the facts.
Stock price keeps going down. GOV hitting new lows daily. Quality REITs like O/ADC/NNN all out performing.
Stop posting nonsense. EQC STOCK WENT UP 75% and is close to 3 year highs since they kicked out the RMR Portnoys which have proven themselves as terrible managers. Compare the EQC stock price with the RMR losers SIR/SNH/GOV. They're all near 5-10 year lows.
Management at RMR is excellent at ONE thing and ONE thing only: capital destruction. No reason to badmouth EQC which is near 3 year highs when the companies you love so much are at 5-10 year lows and going lower.
It's cheap but assuming management doesn't pillage the company for themselves and screw shareholders as they've done with rmr reits, the reits have more upside. So if management suddenly becomes honest the reits are more undervalued than the manager imo
Periscope is a rounding error in the train wreck that is Twitter. As you said, it makes up a fraction of a percent in twitter's market cap.
Not only equity. Bond holders would need to be 100% wiped out before bank loans are written down. So equity zero, bonds zero, then loans take losses. This article is a joke. Oil prices have little to no effect on Bank of Americas performance as a whole. It's a rounding error
I wish Corvex could kick out RMR in SIR/SNH then the stock would double in a week. Would be great, huh?
Share price is not 40x ffo. Look up the actual numbers. I'll write a letter to various activist hedge funds maybe asking them to get involved in SIR/SNH. Both have great assets that are being mismanaged by RMR.
Brad, you're wasting your time replying to this guy. All his comments are unbelievably pro RMR to the point that they're nonsensical. He thinks RMR was doing an awesome job with CWH until Corvex "looted" the company by *gasp* making the stock price shoot up 70%+. Save your breath. There's no reasoning with him. He's clearly affiliated with RMR.
The buffet indicator is useless today and irrelevant. Mentioning this without context dispels your entire "analysis". Fact is Comparing u.s equities to u.s gdp is pointless today. u.s equities operate on a global scale, so using just u.s gdp on the denominator is silly.