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Omer Altay  

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  • Whole Foods Market beats by $0.01, misses on revenue [View news story]
    If you've ever been to Whole foods you'd know. People shop their for the experience. The class of customer of their customers are much higher end. The prices are irrelevant. They will never have to compete on price with Safeway, Walmart, or another other regular supermarket chain.

    Again. Not trying to sound snobby. I shop at Walmart. But just calling it as I see it.
    May 6, 2015. 04:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Market beats by $0.01, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Good chance to add for the long term. Wholefoods is a unique grocer that has a loyal customer base. Funny how Walmart entering organic dented this last year. Whole Foods customers go to Whole Foods for the experience and would never go to Walmart. I shop at Walmart, so no disrespect to them. The customers simply don't overlap though. Walmart could hand out organic foods and Whole foods customers wouldn't go. I have a small position in WFM.
    May 6, 2015. 04:10 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conventional Wisdom Is Not Always Wise, Or Why Are Preferred Stock Prices Going Up While Interest Rates Are Projected To Rise? [View article]
    I like JPC and LDP. Why buy individual securities when I can buy these at discounts? The CEF world is odd, but I love bargains. These are remarkably steady too. I mix my Preferreds with other income CEFs like FRA (Floating rate bank loans) and DSL (Bond fund, short maturity, run by Doubleline which I respect)
    May 5, 2015. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conventional Wisdom Is Not Always Wise, Or Why Are Preferred Stock Prices Going Up While Interest Rates Are Projected To Rise? [View article]
    Big fan of Preferred stocks myself, especially CEFs that trade at a discount. 10% discount on a basket of preferreds is my cup of tea.
    May 5, 2015. 08:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • KongZhong Q1: All About Mobile [View article]
    I don't see any of their mobile games on the top 100 list on 17173's mobile site.
    http://99.shouyou.com
    May 5, 2015. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway - An Update And Thoughts On Deal Structure [View article]
    I like the story, but the negative equity scares me. If their balance sheet was a little bit stronger, this would be very interesting.
    May 5, 2015. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    Earnings was released via the recent 20-F annual report, however no guidance was provided. Their hit games were released in December, 2014. Darkdawn is VERY highly regarded in China and is vastly outperforming Condor Heroes mobile (which they listed as a critical game that accounts for a large % of their revenues). http://99.shouyou.com look at #6 (dark dawn).
    May 3, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jiayuan: The Market Expects A Higher Take-Private Offer [View article]
    Greetings,

    Any thoughts on the PWRD proposed buyout? I've argued that it's far too low and at the proposed price it's basically theft.
    May 1, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World receives higher go-private offer [View news story]
    I still think they raise their bid. shareholders can't vote on the deal without seeing q4 2014 and q1 2015 numbers. They need to release it. go shop clause in agreement too. the two financial advisors will get heat if they don't try soliciting a higher offer. this is an absolute steal at this price as I outlined in my article. shareholders need at least 24.50 for it to be close to a fair deal. 30$ would make it similar to other Chinese gaming buyouts but I can accept 24.50
    Apr 27, 2015. 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    They have a definitive agreement in place at $20.20 with financing ready to go. I'm expecting a higher offer. Agreed, they are being shifty, especially with the math I outlined earlier. Hopefully they report 2014 Q4 and 2015 Q1 before the deal goes through so shareholders get a better deal.
    Apr 26, 2015. 10:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    Also worth mentioning. This is one of the clearest merger agreements with funding ready to go. Founder has $900M credit facility ready to go. No consortium, no PE partners, credit available ready to go. Simple.
    Apr 26, 2015. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    vote no to the takeover at 20.20. price will have to come up. changyou will report tonight and may boom tomorrow. they have one game in top 100 pwrd has 4. I suspect a higher price is coming soon. no reason to accept the lowball 20.20. I expect 24-25 to seal the deal in the coming months
    Apr 26, 2015. 08:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    I own PWRD. I disclosed so as per traditional seeking alpha disclosure policy.

    Offer is in USD as per the source I cited. I don't think it's like the Dell scenario at all. Company is literally a steal, being purchased at book value (which is mostly cash/current assets). Plus it's a Chinese company which can complicate things. No idea when closing happens. No one will know until they announce it.
    Apr 25, 2015. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    News from China. No idea why PWRD is radio silent in the U.S.
    http://bit.ly/1Dnc7XX

    Important part "Perfect World and Migu game will be a new attitude in the 2015 campaign is full of opportunities, Perfect World COO Zhangyun Fan said that the perfect world of mobile gaming revenue in 2014 has reached 1.1 billion yuan, has occupied a quarter of the company's total revenue income. In 2015 there will be nearly 30 products available" (Google translate)

    Cooperation announced with a company called Migu. More importantly, they said their mobile game revenues for 2014 had reached 1.1 billion RMB, or 25% of their total. 3Q2014 they said mobile was 20% of their quarter's revenue. Now for all of 2014 its 25%? Interesting.

    Some simple math-
    Q1 2014 891,072,839 RMB
    Q2 2014 928,368,627 RMB
    Q3 2014 974,297,223 RMB
    Officially reported total: 2,793,738,689

    Q4 ~1,600,000,000 RMB (IF 1.1B is truly 25% as per the quote above). They guided on the high end of 1,072,000. I cannot imagine they'd guide 50% lower than these estimates. But who knows. Maybe their mobile games were on an absolute tear, deferred revenues were recognized, and then some. PWRD doesn't own 100% of the equity in their mobile game companies, but as far as I understand are the majority owners by far, so that doesn't account for the difference either.

    Thoughts?
    Apr 25, 2015. 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Perfect World: Buyout Offer Likely To Be Raised [View article]
    The increase in deferred revenue was significant last quarter - 120 million RMB. Had that 120 million RMB been reported as revenue it would have been smashed estimates and the stock would have zoomed up.

    Their mobile games are doing well and Dota 2 had a big tourny in Asia which was huge for them (Very profitable).

    Agreed that they have remained undervalued for a long time, but revenues were not growing prior to last year. They're in growth mode now and the company wants to go private before showing wall street the books, which were due over a month ago. Q1 earnings are being released for most companies now, but PWRD hasn't released Q4 2014. AFTER they booked a huge increase in Q3 for deferred revenues. I think they're masking their growth.

    There's upside because the privatization of PWRD relative to Shanda Games/Giant Interactive is mind blowingly cheap and values the operating co at $0. At 5x TTM EPS for the operating co (which just started growing, RAPIDLY might I add) this is a $30 fair value takeover JUST to match the SUPER CHEAP takeovers of Giant/Shanda.
    Apr 24, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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