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Omer Altay

 
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  • Disaster Strikes For American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    It does matter, The numbers are insignificant. They paid down their revolver with the recent sale of the shopping centers anyway. Banks/bondholders make loans to profit. If they think the borrower is safe (they are because the numbers are insignificant) they have no financial reason to call in any loans even if they were in breach.
    Oct 29 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disaster Strikes For American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Comments like yours are nuts. They already announced that they communicated with their banks/bondholders and that NO COVENANTS have been breached.

    The stock recovered $2 from the low and I expect to see another bump tomorrow. $0.03. This entire debacle is over A NON-GAAP AFFO number. NAV remains the same and that's crucial.

    Bankruptcy isn't going to happen. This entire debacle is over 0.03. Let that sink in. Obviously if A LOT more negative information comes out, then all bets are off, but right now this is a rounding error.
    Oct 29 09:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting Armageddon: Should You Dump Your American Realty Stake And Run For The Hills? [View article]
    Added 60k shares at $7.95 ($0.10 from bottom! WOW!). Basically doubled down.

    The numbers are nothing. $10 million is a rounding error. This was bad, but not 30% bad. It'll recover and I'll profit handsomely. go ahead and panic sell.
    Oct 29 08:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    There is no significance to those technical indicators. None. It's been proven in peer reviewed scientific journals. Let your delusions go. The thing is, I know you won't. I've spoken with many people who buy into this nonsense. It's exactly like a religion. There's zero proof and it logically doesn't make sense, but the delusion is too strong.

    I hope you get lucky and make money using your "system". Best of luck to you.
    Oct 21 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    It just did? I told you. My Dog coughed at that exact price point signaling a reversal. I told you this! IT JUST DID RIGHT BEFORE YOUR EYES, RIGHT HERE!! (I can't stop laughing)
    Oct 19 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    It has never shown significance.

    A recent study by finance professors at Massey University in New Zealand examined more than 5,000 technical trading rules to see if they added value. The authors found "no evidence that the profits to the technical trading rules we consider are greater than those that might be expected due to random data variation."
    http://bit.ly/JfPCNn

    Another Study.
    The study "Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis" found that profits from technical trading rules don't exceed reasonable estimates of transaction costs in the U.S. market.
    http://bit.ly/1sUQbmr

    Oh wait. Peer reviewed journals say technical analysis is a joke too? It's okay. waldipup has his anecdotal personal experiences as evidence. Keep dreaming. A lot of people thing Astrology is real too. Acupuncture and Chiropractic are immensely popular too despite being nothing more than placebos.
    Oct 18 12:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    My dog coughed at the $11.50 price level, which signaled a reversal. That's why it rallied. Makes just as much sense.
    Oct 17 11:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan: The Company Of 10,000 Frustrations [View article]
    Clearly management doesn't care about the stock price. Why should they? The CEO runs the show whether the stock is at $0.01 or $10. He clearly has no intentions of selling his stock anytime soon. IPOing in the U.S. was purely a vanity thing. He can tell his buddies Xinyuan trades in New York. Expect nothing to change. There is value in XIN, but there's no catalyst to unlock it. This may be dead money for a while. The Jet isn't going to go. The CEO gets to fly around in it and i'm sure he likes his toys.
    Oct 15 12:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    All technical "indicators" are voodoo nonsense. I'd LOVE for ARCP to fall to $11.20/30 and I'd buy it hand over fist. Already have a good deal, but would add another $100K at that price, provided no other negative fundamental news. I'm not "trading". I'd buy and hold for years and maybe hedge by shorting interest rates.

    Good read on technical trading being nonsense:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I mean just google stock technical trading and you're bombarded with get rich quick schemes/systems. Might as well read tea leaves. It's the same thing.
    Oct 13 02:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    Mr. Market is expecting very poor execution from ARCP. Time will tell if Mr. Market is right or just offering a good entry. I think if ARCP executes well, ARCP will trade at much higher multiples. Market tends to give huge weighting to size, and ARCP is as big as it gets in the space.

    One day ARCP will trade at O multiples, but only after they prove themselves.
    Oct 9 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    CHK is dependent on natural gas prices, which fell a lot and that's why shareholder value was destroyed. If prices rose, McClendon woulda seemed like a genius. ARCP isn't the same thing. It's not dependent on one commodity price.
    Oct 5 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    Thanks for the honest reply. You're correct, these aren't "guaranteed" but selling the business for $700M+$130M earnout alone is sort of a break away from it, but we get half the upside. The $700M can be used to pay down debt, which will ultimately allow them to continue to acquire triple net assets. The cole noise should die down and hopefully they can keep executing on their core business.
    Oct 3 04:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    Brad,

    Did you listen to the recent investor call about this sale? I like the CEO's tone. They're selling for $700M with an earnout to bring it to $830 (they paid $800M for cole capital part of the deal) and they expect to earn $800+M in fees over the next 7 years (while G&A expenses are reduced 60M$/yr). As a NNN reit investor i'm buying ARCP to own real estate. Not a brokerage. This does make them more pure play, which still splitting fees with cole.

    I'd like to hear your thoughts about this after you listen to the call @
    http://bit.ly/1qUQvfk

    DO you still feel the same way after the call?
    Oct 3 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - 30% Total Return Potential Next Year [View article]
    Overweight ARCP, my biggest position by far. Limited downside by net tangible assets of ~$11.XX. New CEO seems to be very much in touch with investor concerns (Listen to latest webcase about cole capital divesture).

    Long~50K shares
    Oct 3 02:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Dirt-Cheap REITs [View article]
    ARCP dirt cheap too.

    Overweight ARCP/LXP
    Sep 23 11:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
379 Comments
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