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Omer Altay  

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  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Waldipup

    Without RL, the average lease term is 10.5 years~
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital to issue annual report, host call on March 30 [View news story]
    I think your $.91 is way too conservative. Q3 was $0.23 AFFO JUST RE segment. Assuming cole contributes 0 I think 2015 will be much better than 4x $0.23 which is $0.92. It'll be better because.. A) Built in rent escalations. B) Full quarter worth of Red Lobster. C) Red Lobster has annual rent increases which should kick in mid 2015.

    I think we see $1 AFFO in 2015 easy.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Red Lobster business has steadied and is growing. One benchmark you can use is the web traffic to RedLobster.com (Data from Alexa.com) has been on the rise steadily since December. I suspect it'll only improve.

    I went to Red Lobster early this week (In Las Vegas). 25 minute wait to get in and by the time I left, still a 25 minute wait for others to get in. Anecdotal evidence, but the place was packed.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Why? Let them keep the cash and pay down debt. They need to balance debt/equity ratios. Might as well do it by retaining some cash + selling assets.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Mentioned this sale in my last article on ARCP. I suspect ARCP will divest more Red Lobsters at a significant profit.

    ARCP made some Cha-ching here too:
    http://bit.ly/1Nk0Ihn

    $183 million cash money. Only 7.7% profit. After commissions/fees, prob 4.5%/5%, but they're raising cash to better balance debt/equity.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Nsolot

    Did Realty Income over pay for ARCT? The purchase was done at a 5.7% cap rate (lower than LSE, COLE, Arct 3 and ARCT 4). This was in late 2012 when Cap rates were higher too. If you think ARCP over paid for these assets, Realty Income GROSSLY overpaid for ARCT.
    Source:
    http://1.usa.gov/1E5wnDv

    LSE/Cole/ARCT3/ARCT4 Were all funded with then over priced stock. ($12-$15). The cap rates on Cole was 6.3% without including earnings from Cole Capital. The cap rate on ARCT3 was 5.95% (very similar to O's price on ARCT). GE Portfolio was 8.1%, Caplease was 6.33%, CCPT 8.16%. Again, these were funded with stock at a higher price too. I don't think they over paid.

    I don't understand. People keep saying they overpaid for these assets with no evidence. Cole was the biggest deal and the cap rate wasn't bad. 6.3% isn't over paying. It's near market price, especially considering the cap rate is the Cole Real Estate assets (not the capital business). Oh and this was funded by issuing shares at 12.50+. The real estate appreciated and the stock depreciated. Makes the deal even better.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Mark. Brad never said the average lease term was 1.6 years. He said the average lease term for ARCP's BANK properties is 1.6 years.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Unlikely. They specifically stated the new dividend would be in line with net lease peers. Why would they use such language if they weren't going to change the dividend?
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Impossible to predict the outcome of litigation.... Some class actions have been settled for A LOT others small. See my last article on ARCP where I provided an example of a class action with restatements being settled for a small sum.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Readers Forum [View instapost]
    Seekling Alpha is filled with low quality garbage articles, many of which feels auto-generated by a computer. The average article is going to fall so much lower after the putting the good contributors behind the paywall.

    Will premium author's content be available for free after some time? 1 week? 30 days? 60 days? never?
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:22 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Thanks for the BAC analyst info. I'd be very pleased with $0.85/yr dividend.

    They have to account for the mishaps as they occured, but keep in mind they got $60 million from RCAP to offset the auditing/advisory costs. A settlement is likely YEARS away from the class actions, so that's not too important. Plus, they can use some of the $100 million+ in executive compensation they saved by firing Nick to offset some of the cole capital write downs going forward. So the only lasting damage from this ordeal IMO was the loss in value of Cole Capital (which could still recover and not counting money saved from firing nick). Even if they wrote down cole capital to $0, that's a 700 million hit. The assets purchased at higher prices with stock still make this a steal.
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    I agree. ARCP lost the trust of investors and that's why they're potentially dirty. The dividend suspension is a side effect of their poor management. I guess that's what you meant. I see value at today's price though.
    Mar 23, 2015. 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    I don't understand this.... for a lack of better words.. absurd logic. Does ALL facts/fundamentals go out the window if there's no dividend? No one is disputing facts here. The dividend is temporarily suspended. That has nothing to do with the company's real estate assets/value on the balance sheet.

    Hypothetically speaking, If "O" Suspended their dividend for 6 months (To, lets say pay down debt. They don't need to, but they chose to do this) and the stock SUDDENLY fell 75%, Would you say it's "dirty and has no value"? To say so is absolutely absurd. The company still owns the same real estate they had before. Your logic eludes me.
    Mar 23, 2015. 07:18 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Agreed. The dividend will be reinstated and I know the CEO isn't going to decide on the number himself after messing around in Excel. I've already stated before, the CEO of a net lease company isn't as important as other companies. They're triple net. They're advertised as hands off with no landlord responsibilities. The only job of management is to set strategy to acquire new properties efficiently.

    Company *could* easily set a dividend by the 31st, but they said specifically they wouldn't until they discuss with the ceo, which is the only reason I don't think it'll happen. Stanley has kept his word so far.

    Biggest risk to ARCP is if general REIT sentiment tanks / we get interest rate fears again. On a takeover/merger, I could sell ARCP valued at $13. On a stand-alone basis, this could go to $15+ within 12 months. Once dividend strategy is announced and company announces 2015 targets, business plan, etc, this will shoot up. Investors hate "unkowns" and even with restated numbers out, we're still in the dark.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    I understand, but they specifically said during the conference call that the dividend policy will be discussed with input from the new CEO as well as Morgan Stanley (as their adviser). it's impossible to discuss it with the CEO until he's starts the job Starting April 1.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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