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Omer Altay

 
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  • Closed End Funds Vs. ETFs, Which Is Better For You? [View article]
    Good writeup to introduce people to CEFs.

    Long numerous CEFs that trade @ discounts of 5-15%. Why buy an ETF when you can buy a CEF in the same sector @ a discount? These aren't "frauds" either, just mismatched supply and demand that creates a discount.
    Jan 23, 2015. 07:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lentuo International Update - Chairman And CEO To Make $1 Million Purchase In Open Market And Other Developments [View article]
    No one is doubting the industry LAS is in. No one believe's their numbers. They have a $100M cash but trade at $25M market cap? Come on. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Build America Bond Trust: A And AA Bonds With A Discount To NAV And A 7% Yield [View article]
    Sold some of my JPC (pref stock CEF trading @ discount) for BBN. Seems like a no brainer. Similar yield for less risk.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lentuo International's Growth Plan Could Reward Investors [View article]
    MCGF,

    If you honestly think this company isn't a fraud and they have the assets they claim they do, why not REALLY display your confidence to your readers. What's your position size? If they're trading at 0.1x book value, this is literally a steal. They have $100M in cash and not buying back stock? What a joke. Reminds me of XNY (Another china stock "with" $100m cash but $25M market cap). I'd borrow to buy 5% of this company if I actually thought for a moment they were 100% legitimate. 10% is $2.5M and no hedgefunds or individual investors are biting. 5% would trigger a 13D too, but none.

    So let me ask you. Do you think this company is a fraud? Is there any chance in your mind it's a fraud? 20%? 30%? Should disclose it in your article if you think so. That would be the only reason to not go big on it.

    They can prove everyone wrong overnight if they pay a dividend. $1 a share. It'll cost them $25M (which is more than manageable if they have the cash). I don't buy China stocks unless they can pay a dividend. It's served me well in PWRD.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Looking For A 170% Profit On These Magnum Hunter Preferreds [View article]
    Why on Earth would investors buy these distressed prefs when they can buy their bonds @ $0.7 on the dollar (yield to maturity 18%) as per morning star http://bit.ly/1wmkPq2

    Bonds are much more secure.
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Allied Nevada Increases Gold Sales 19% Annually, But Remains A Sell [View article]
    Anv provides the most upside in a 1,500-1,600 gold price environment. commodity prices move up and down violently. if gold snaps to 1,600 the economics of hycroft are mind blowing. at 1,600 shares will be a 20 bagger. if gold drudges at 1100-1200 anv is dead, at 1.300 it can keep its head above water. consider anv an option.
    Jan 21, 2015. 05:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Fargo upgrades Exxon while cutting view for Chevron, Murphy Oil [View news story]
    I'm going to short xom to hedge my new long energy exposure. Long Total and royal dutch shell/short Xom
    Jan 21, 2015. 04:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: Part 1 Of My Top 5 For 2015 [View article]
    "EBITDA" is meaningless. It's earnings before everything. Look at their income statement from last Q

    Their adjusted EBITDA ignores real expenses like severance, store opening costs, production center start up costs, pre-opening advertising costs. These are REAL cash expenses. When these are included they're on very thin footing with their cushion.

    They need more liquidity and share price is too depressed to issue equity without crushing the stock. I doubt they can borrow more since they have negative equity too. I like the Fairway story, but their financials leave no margin for error. They have to execute PERFECTLY to stay afloat.
    Jan 18, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Ceramics: Short-Term Problems Have Obscured Positive Long-Term Developments [View article]
    If the company's shares had ANY value, why wouldn't the co buyback shares in the U.S.? Volumes are limited, but anything they can buy would be huge for them.

    They expected to be resumed by April, 2014. They appointed their auditor specifically to get things done and resume trading, but their auditor resigned too.

    There's no new time table or update since then. They keep releasing bits saying "progress is going smoothly" but that doesn't mean anything. Are there any examples where a HK listed company was halted for YEARS and re-listed and boomed without shares being cancelled? If so, I'd like to know.
    Jan 17, 2015. 10:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Ceramics: Short-Term Problems Have Obscured Positive Long-Term Developments [View article]
    CMGHF has no chance of recovery. The parent company was delisted in Hong Kong 4 years ago. The U.S. shares are useless. You don't even own the company, you own a holding company who supposedly has 'contracts' with the actual business which gives the holding company control, but clearly these contracts have already been violated as U.S. owners have gotten nothing from the company.

    No hope in CMGHF. When buying these companies, the management HAS to be shareholder friendly, otherwise they're worth $0. You have ZERO recourse even if you owned 100% of the stock. You have zero say in how the CO gets run. You're at the mercy of management. XIN I could nibble at because they pay a dividend. ZA/XNY both apparel retailers who clearly don't care about shareholders.
    Jan 17, 2015. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairway Group: Part 1 Of My Top 5 For 2015 [View article]
    I bought into the story towards the bottom at $2.50, sold out at $3.50. Was looking for a bigger gain, but balance sheet is way too weak. How many more quarters do they have of liquidity? They keep trying to open more stores and expand when there's no money to fund the growth. Last quarter they burned $21.393 million in cash and had $37.407M in cash+11.9m borrowing capacity. What do they have left in them? 2 more quarters? Stockholder's equity is negative $8.6M, net tangible assets negative $129M.

    They're burning cash too fast trying to expand when they should hunker down and improve current operations. If they had another $75M in liquidity, I'd be a buyer.
    Jan 16, 2015. 06:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Not Likely To Be A REIT Buyout [View article]
    Why buy the Preferred? Can get better yields with Build America Bonds (BBN). AA/A credit rating and they actually mature. Less duration risk, more yield.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties: Not Likely To Be A REIT Buyout [View article]
    Have you ever owned an NNN property? True NNNs are easy to manage. They're leased for long periods of time and deposits are made automatically. Literally 0 management required.

    ARCP still needs a management team since the organization is so large. They need to continue sourcing deals, recycling capital, etc. Running any business is difficult, but triple net leases don't require "management". An enormous multi billion dollar portfolio of them requires some though.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Fixed Income Yield Comparison And Recommendations [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. I still can't wrap my mind around it. There has to be some trade off.

    Yield on Preferred ETFs is equal to or less than BAB funds. Credit quality is much better in BABs. Both are fixed rate, but Preferreds have no maturity.
    Jan 14, 2015. 10:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Fixed Income Yield Comparison And Recommendations [View article]
    Interesting.

    There must be a reason why investors are buying up fixed rate Preferred stocks and funds over Build America Bonds. At first glance, looks like BABs are objectively better. Preferred stocks are callable but have no maturity date for the most part and are lower credit rating, but you can get similar yields with BAB funds like BBN.

    Someone enlighten me why anyone would buy a Preferred fund over a BAB fund. You can get 1% more yield with a fund like JPC (Pref fund @ 8-9% discount), but seems like a raw deal still.

    Anyone?
    Jan 14, 2015. 08:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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