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Omer Altay  

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  • City Office REIT Has 55% Upside Fueled By Rapid Growth And Deep Undervaluation [View article]
    Good read as always Dane.

    You're one of my favorite authors on SA. Definitely #1 in the REIT space. I like Brad too, but Brad's analysis are vague/general. Yours are specific and provide a lot more insight. Looking forward to more ideas! Long MPW/CORR/BRG and other ideas from you, though I was long MPW/CORR before I read your work, but you gave me BRG!
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BMO's Sell-Side Analyst Reflects On American Realty Capital's New CEO [View article]
    Please stop repeating this nonsense. REITs have to pay out 90% of taxable INCOME. ARCP has LOSSES not INCOME on a GAAP basis. They can pay out $0 and still remain a REIT.
    Apr 3, 2015. 04:26 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties' (ARCP) CEO William Stanley Discusses on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    My thoughts:

    Pros:
    Annual report filed. Cole Capital resumed selling agreements with Schwab + other broker dealers are likely going to get back in.

    Investment day+Q1 earnings in May. Catalyst identified. I expect dividend+guidance to come out then.

    Cons:
    Write downs. $96.7M isn't that bad, but

    Didn't mention disposition strategy. I want to see them sell assets at a profit and pay down debt/get closer to restoring their investment grade ratings. ARCP needs longer debt maturities/be able to roll over debt.

    Good thing the cole/asset write downs were in this quarter. Should be clean going forward.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Waldi, ARCP released the numbers in an investor presentation before the deal closed. Just adjust it a bit to account for the time since the presentation till now
    Mar 30, 2015. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Waldipup

    Without RL, the average lease term is 10.5 years~
    Mar 28, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital to issue annual report, host call on March 30 [View news story]
    I think your $.91 is way too conservative. Q3 was $0.23 AFFO JUST RE segment. Assuming cole contributes 0 I think 2015 will be much better than 4x $0.23 which is $0.92. It'll be better because.. A) Built in rent escalations. B) Full quarter worth of Red Lobster. C) Red Lobster has annual rent increases which should kick in mid 2015.

    I think we see $1 AFFO in 2015 easy.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Red Lobster business has steadied and is growing. One benchmark you can use is the web traffic to RedLobster.com (Data from Alexa.com) has been on the rise steadily since December. I suspect it'll only improve.

    I went to Red Lobster early this week (In Las Vegas). 25 minute wait to get in and by the time I left, still a 25 minute wait for others to get in. Anecdotal evidence, but the place was packed.
    Mar 27, 2015. 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Why? Let them keep the cash and pay down debt. They need to balance debt/equity ratios. Might as well do it by retaining some cash + selling assets.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Mentioned this sale in my last article on ARCP. I suspect ARCP will divest more Red Lobsters at a significant profit.

    ARCP made some Cha-ching here too:
    http://bit.ly/1Nk0Ihn

    $183 million cash money. Only 7.7% profit. After commissions/fees, prob 4.5%/5%, but they're raising cash to better balance debt/equity.
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARCP: Don't Overlook The Risks Because The Books Are 'Fixed' [View article]
    Nsolot

    Did Realty Income over pay for ARCT? The purchase was done at a 5.7% cap rate (lower than LSE, COLE, Arct 3 and ARCT 4). This was in late 2012 when Cap rates were higher too. If you think ARCP over paid for these assets, Realty Income GROSSLY overpaid for ARCT.
    Source:
    http://1.usa.gov/1E5wnDv

    LSE/Cole/ARCT3/ARCT4 Were all funded with then over priced stock. ($12-$15). The cap rates on Cole was 6.3% without including earnings from Cole Capital. The cap rate on ARCT3 was 5.95% (very similar to O's price on ARCT). GE Portfolio was 8.1%, Caplease was 6.33%, CCPT 8.16%. Again, these were funded with stock at a higher price too. I don't think they over paid.

    I don't understand. People keep saying they overpaid for these assets with no evidence. Cole was the biggest deal and the cap rate wasn't bad. 6.3% isn't over paying. It's near market price, especially considering the cap rate is the Cole Real Estate assets (not the capital business). Oh and this was funded by issuing shares at 12.50+. The real estate appreciated and the stock depreciated. Makes the deal even better.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:00 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Mark. Brad never said the average lease term was 1.6 years. He said the average lease term for ARCP's BANK properties is 1.6 years.
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Unlikely. They specifically stated the new dividend would be in line with net lease peers. Why would they use such language if they weren't going to change the dividend?
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Impossible to predict the outcome of litigation.... Some class actions have been settled for A LOT others small. See my last article on ARCP where I provided an example of a class action with restatements being settled for a small sum.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Readers Forum [View instapost]
    Seekling Alpha is filled with low quality garbage articles, many of which feels auto-generated by a computer. The average article is going to fall so much lower after the putting the good contributors behind the paywall.

    Will premium author's content be available for free after some time? 1 week? 30 days? 60 days? never?
    Mar 25, 2015. 01:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Properties - Clean Books, Great Assets, Superb Value [View article]
    Thanks for the BAC analyst info. I'd be very pleased with $0.85/yr dividend.

    They have to account for the mishaps as they occured, but keep in mind they got $60 million from RCAP to offset the auditing/advisory costs. A settlement is likely YEARS away from the class actions, so that's not too important. Plus, they can use some of the $100 million+ in executive compensation they saved by firing Nick to offset some of the cole capital write downs going forward. So the only lasting damage from this ordeal IMO was the loss in value of Cole Capital (which could still recover and not counting money saved from firing nick). Even if they wrote down cole capital to $0, that's a 700 million hit. The assets purchased at higher prices with stock still make this a steal.
    Mar 24, 2015. 06:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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