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ONeil Trader

 
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  • Update: Jumei Q2 Earnings
    Yesterday, 7:19 AM JMEI 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Jumei reported Q2 revenue and earnings above views.
    • The company guided full-year net income above analyst consensus.
    • I am reiterating my bullish thesis and price target.
  • Plug Power's Q2 Report: Good But Not Great
    Mon, Aug. 18 PLUG 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Plug Power’s reported Q2 revenue above estimates with good momentum in its business.
    • There was no guidance update and bookings growth is below my expectations.
    • Reiterating my price target and outlook.
  • Update: Sina Q2 Earnings
    Sun, Aug. 17 SINA 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Sina reported Q2 earnings and revenue above views.
    • The growth is mostly coming from Weibo.
    • Q3 guidance was below analyst estimates.
    • I am reiterating my price target and bullish view on Sina.
  • Is Jumei The Next Vipshop?
     • Thu, Aug. 14 VIPS, JMEI 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Jumei is delivering strong top and bottom line growth and stands to benefit from the secular growth trends in China’s online retail market.
    • There is substantial upside in the next couple of years, while the near term upside is between 30% and 60%.
    • The reward/risk ratio is highly skewed to the long side.
  • Plug Power: Will Q2 Report Cause A Short Squeeze?
    Wed, Aug. 13 PLUG 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Plug Power is due to report Q2 earnings on Thursday and a good report might be a start of a short squeeze.
    • The extension of the Wal-Mart deal bodes well for Plug Power’s long-term prospects as it shows that GenDrive makes sense for its customers.
    • What to watch for in the second quarter report.
  • Update: FleetCor's Comdata Acquisition
    Wed, Aug. 13 FLT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • FleetCor announced the acquisition of Comdata yesterday after close.
    • The acquisition should be completed in Q4 and add $0.50 to $0.60 to 2015 EPS.
    • I am raising my price target to reflect the raised FY 2015 expectations.
  • Update: LGI Homes Q2 Earnings
    Tue, Aug. 12 LGIH Comment!

    Summary

    • LGI Homes reported Q2 revenue and earnings significantly above analyst consensus and slightly above my own expectations.
    • The company raised full-year EPS guidance by $0.08 at mid-point of the guidance range.
    • I am reiterating my $34 price target.
  • Stratasys' Q2 Report Brings Back Faith In The Growth Of 3D Printing
    Mon, Aug. 11 DDD, SSYS 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Stratasys’ Q2 report was outstanding as the growth was above views in all of its business segments.
    • The report highlights the strength of the company’s business model compared to 3D Systems.
    • Stratasys should continue to outperform 3D Systems in the next couple of months.
  • Time To Load Up On Qihoo?
    Mon, Aug. 11 BIDU, QIHU 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Qihoo seems to have digested its move down in the last couple of months and might be ready to rally.
    • The company has done a note offering which means that a major acquisition may be in the making.
    • Comparing Qihoo’s valuation to Baidu's reveals which stock has potential for more gains in the next couple of months.
  • Update: Bitauto.com Q2 Earnings
    Mon, Aug. 11 BITA 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Bitauto reported earnings and revenue above analyst estimates.
    • The company also guided Q3 revenue and EPS above views.
    • I am raising my price target but Bitauto is still extended and a better entry point should emerge in the next couple of weeks or months.
  • Horizon Pharma: Upbeat 2015 Guidance Increases Confidence
    Mon, Aug. 11 HZNP 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Horizon Pharma reported Q2 earnings and revenue that were ahead of analyst estimates.
    • The FY 2015 guidance is the most important part of the report as it shows the potential impact of the two PBMs taking Duexis and Vimovo off formularies.
    • I am lowering my price target to reflect the increased risks of lower growth in the future.
  • Update: Air Lease Q2 Earnings
    Fri, Aug. 8 AL Comment!

    Summary

    • Air Lease reported earnings and revenue ahead of analyst estimates.
    • The number of aircraft in Q2 rose to 207 from 196 at the end of Q1.
    • Due to expectations for higher EPS in 2014, I am raising my price target.
  • Gentex Is Growing But Valued Like It Isn't
     • Thu, Aug. 7 GNTX 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Gentex has not performed as well as I hoped in the last six months, which might be due to unfavorable historical seasonality in the first half the year.
    • The company is growing in line with expectations and the expected long-term growth rates warrant a higher share price in the future.
    • Downside should be very limited while the potential upside is between 30% and 65%.
  • Enzymotec: Declining Expectations And A Lot Of Uncertainty
    Thu, Aug. 7 ENZY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Enzymotec is facing a lot of issues recently and its share price was punished as a consequence.
    • Q2 quarter was disastrous as revenue fell more than 30% over the same quarter last year.
    • Expectations have come down significantly and the company is dealing with a lot of uncertainty.
    • Additional downside is possible.
  • Update: YY Inc. Q2 Earnings
    Thu, Aug. 7 YY 10 Comments

    Summary

    • YY reported earnings and revenue that blew past analyst estimates.
    • Q3 guidance also exceeded expectations.
    • The company is on track to grow significantly in the future.
    • I am raising my growth estimates and price target.
  • LGI Homes: Expecting A Blowout Second Quarter
    Tue, Aug. 5 LGIH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • LGI Homes’ share price is doing very well despite the overall weakness in the housing sector.
    • The company is on track to deliver another stellar quarter and report far above analyst estimates.
    • There is still plenty of upside left based on my price target.
  • FleetCor: The End Of P/E Expansion?
    Mon, Aug. 4 FLT Comment!

    Summary

    • FleetCor reported Q2 earnings and revenue that were mostly in line with expectations.
    • The company’s growth prospects still seem compelling, but the valuation seems to be near the end of expansion.
    • The rumored Comdata acquisition might be a near-term catalyst that might push the share price higher.
  • Bitauto: Time To Take Profits?
    Mon, Aug. 4 ATHM, BITA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Bitauto had a great run in the last couple of months, and it may be time to take some profits off the table.
    • The stock exceeded my $51 price target, and although it could go higher from here, the reward/risk ratio is unfavorable for the bulls.
    • Buying Autohome instead of Bitauto here might be the best thing to do.
  • Waddell & Reed Should Bottom Soon
    Sun, Aug. 3 WDR Comment!

    Summary

    • Departure of 3 portfolio managers in the last 9 months has caused concerns and Waddell & Reed’s share price has suffered as a consequence.
    • The company’s growth continues to be outstanding and above the average growth in the industry.
    • Valuation is compelling at the current price and the stock should bottom soon, but additional downside is possible given the current negativity surrounding the stock.
  • New Oriental: Lots Of Downside Protection And 15% To 60% Upside
     • Sat, Aug. 2 EDU Comment!

    Summary

    • New Oriental tanked after reporting better than expected quarterly results and a poor outlook for fiscal Q1 2015.
    • A lot of negativity is built into the share price and the share buyback, a substantial net cash position and a very low valuation should help protect the downside.
    • Upside in the next six to twelve months could be between 15% and 60%.
  • Update: Pacira Delivers Q2 Earnings Above Expectations
    Thu, Jul. 31 PCRX Comment!

    Summary

    • Pacira Pharmaceuticals reported earnings and revenue that blew past analyst estimates.
    • Exparel commercialization exceeds expectations as product sales more than doubled to $44.9 million in Q2 and averaging 28 new accounts per week.
    • I am raising my price target to reflect the higher future growth potential.
  • Update: 3D Systems Earnings - Disappointing
    Thu, Jul. 31 DDD 10 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Systems’ Q2 report is largely disappointing as the company missed EPS and revenue expectations.
    • Full-year guidance was revised slightly higher which is also a major disappointment given the recent acquisitions.
    • The company is likely enabled to grow at a rate that is needed to deserve a higher valuation and I am reducing my price target.
  • Air Lease: Excellent Long Term Growth Potential
     • Wed, Jul. 30 AL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Air Lease has come a long way since the company was founded in 2010 by industry veterans.
    • The company is benefiting from strong growth trends in the industry and is expected to double its fleet size in the next six to seven years.
    • The upside under the current circumstances is between 25% and 55% while the downside should be limited to 10% to 15% giving investors an asymmetric reward/risk opportunity.
  • Baidu: $300 Is Possible By End Of 2014
    Tue, Jul. 29 BIDU 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Baidu’s Q2 earnings and revenue blew past analyst estimates as the company ramps up its mobile monetization.
    • High revenue growth should lead to a sustainably high P/S multiple in the next six to twelve months, bringing Baidu’s share price close or above $300.
    • Investors should be careful here since the stock is extended and vulnerable to a pullback.
  • Update: Plug Power Short Interest At New Highs And Wal-Mart Deal Expansion
    Tue, Jul. 29 PLUG 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Plug Power is up 10% in pre-market on news that Walmart is adding an additional GenKey site to the original six-site contract that was announced in February 2014.
    • The additional site consists of 286 GenDrive fuel cell units with deployment plans in Q3 2014.
    • Short interest is at new highs and my new price target for Plug Power is $7.2.
  • Under Armour: Great Growth At A Very High Price
    Tue, Jul. 29 UA 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Under Armour is a great company with excellent growth prospects and those prospects are improving.
    • The other side of the coin is the valuation which is sky-high at the moment.
    • While the upside momentum may continue, shareholders will have lower returns in the next two to three years.
  • Alexion Looks Better After Q2 Earnings
    Mon, Jul. 28 ALXN 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Alexion reported earnings and revenue that beat estimates and raised the full-year revenue and EPS outlook.
    • As a result of rising expectations, Alexion’s forward valuation had come down from unsustainable levels.
    • Given the positive changes I am upgrading Alexion from sell to hold.
  • Update: Horizon Pharma's Duexis And Vimovo To Be Taken Off Formularies By Express Scripts And CVS Caremark In 2015
    Mon, Jul. 28 HZNP 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Horizon Pharma filed a 10-K today which states that Duexis and Vimovo will be taken off formularies by Express Scripts and CVS Caremark on January 1, 2015.
    • This affects the long thesis in a major way as the event will likely reduce long-term growth rates.
    • Additional health care plans might exclude Duexis or Vimovo from formularies which casts a shadow of doubt on Horizon’s future prospects.
  • Las Vegas Sands: Downside Risks Are Largely Priced In
    Mon, Jul. 21 LVS 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Although Las Vegas Sands missed EPS and revenue estimates, the growth story remains intact.
    • Downside risks might be largely priced in given the valuation contraction in the last couple of months.
    • Reward/risk profile is still favorable for the bulls.
  • Why Investors Should Avoid Michael Kors
    Sun, Jul. 20 COH, KORS 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The falling share price is a reflection of emerging fears about the strength of Kors’ business.
    • Contracting valuation might be a precursor of a severe growth slowdown.
    • Long-term growth prospects still seem compelling, but Kors might be on the edge of a negative earnings cycle.
  • Silver Wheaton: Odds In The Bulls' Favor
    Sun, Jul. 20 GLD, SLV, SLW 21 Comments

    Summary

    • The improving inflation outlook and rising geopolitical tensions have brought precious metals prices back near 52-week highs.
    • Silver Wheaton outperformed the precious metals significantly this year.
    • Downside risks remain, but the situation is favoring the long side right now.
  • SS&C Technologies: Modest Upside With Potential For A Significant Boost
       • Tue, Jul. 15 SSNC Comment!

    Summary

    • SS&C Technologies has enjoyed a steady pace of growth since inception which has been fueled by major acquisitions.
    • Organic revenue growth is expected between 5% and 10% in the future and should be pushed higher by more accretive acquisitions.
    • The company has digested its 2012 acquisitions and paid down debt, making room for another strategic acquisition.
    • Current valuation leaves room for modest upside, but certain developments might create room for a rise in future expectations leading to meaningful upside going forward.