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Ophir Chador

 
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  • Housing, Banks and Global Credit: The Next Leg Down Awaits [View article]
    Nothing wrong with disagreement -- that's what makes a market!

    However, to address a couple key points that King999 offered:

    Housing: since the April 30 tax credit expiration, purchase applications plummeted to the lowest level since April 1997.

    Unemployment: We will likely see unemployment rates top 10% in the quarter ahead, as temporary census workers lose their jobs and hiring slows amid economic uncertainty. What little growth we have seen in recent months has been public sector employment or private sector employment that government stimuli promoted. Keep in mind that the stimuli is expiring rapidly -- the homebuyer tax credit being the most recent example. Also, headline unemployment rate is meaningless -- look to U6 unemployment for a better measure...

    Pent up Consumer Demand: this is a complete farce that talking heads on CNBC often promote. Consumers are not postponing large purchases until the economy improves; they are postponing purchases until they can find a job.
    Jun 7, 2010. 11:39 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Dip Recession Signs Materializing [View article]
    The "experts" tend to be the greatest of lagging indicators where markets and economic trends are concerned...
    Jun 28, 2010. 02:21 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Tesla Motors Deliver Electrifying Growth? [View article]
    Amazing that an IPO can still price above its range for a company that has enjoyed nothing but losses since its inception. Have we not lived through that era already?

    I hate to see "investors" get burned, but sometimes they just deserve it...
    Jun 29, 2010. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ophir Chador wonders if the sharp rebound in stocks following an initial drop after today's FOMC statement might be the sound of market participants applauding an honest Fed: "Today's FOMC statement was about as straightforward as one can expect from the Fed, where real concerns were actually acknowledged without all the fluff we normally encounter."  [View news story]
    Hmmm... twice in one comment calling me an idiot and yet you could not take the time to click on the article to see that the honesty remark was meant in jest.

    The market response to the Fed statement was, in fact, ridiculous as was the response to the housing numbers. Being short homebuilders (and having announced that position in many of my previous articles), I was certainly baffled by the market response to clear evidence of further housing troubles going forward.

    Jeff, you're a contributor at Seeking Alpha. You should know better than to call people "idiots" without so much as looking for context. It's a three paragraph article. Try reading it then commenting...
    Jun 23, 2010. 04:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Strength May Bode Poorly for Equities [View article]
    Actually, the original, original title is "Forex Playbook: April 04-10", after which ForexPlaybook.com was named. However, SA changed that title last week, so I thought a more specific, "Market Outlook" title would work.
    I'll contact SA for titular advice to avoid confusion on future content.
    Apr 4, 2010. 05:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ophir Chador wonders if the sharp rebound in stocks following an initial drop after today's FOMC statement might be the sound of market participants applauding an honest Fed: "Today's FOMC statement was about as straightforward as one can expect from the Fed, where real concerns were actually acknowledged without all the fluff we normally encounter."  [View news story]
    Well that's actually understandable...
    Jun 23, 2010. 04:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ophir Chador wonders if the sharp rebound in stocks following an initial drop after today's FOMC statement might be the sound of market participants applauding an honest Fed: "Today's FOMC statement was about as straightforward as one can expect from the Fed, where real concerns were actually acknowledged without all the fluff we normally encounter."  [View news story]
    Haha. If you read my article you will know that I was being as facetious as possible. Come on people, where's the humor in you.

    I guess that's the problem with quoting out of context...
    Jun 23, 2010. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is BP Headed: $70 or $0? [View article]
    "Where Is BP Headed: $70 or $0?"

    Wherever BP is headed, it is certainly the worst value play available in the energy space. Why invest in the one company that faces incalculable risks going forward?

    The energy space as a whole is offering extremely kind discounts, which will likely grow more attractive in the weeks ahead. BP is the last company in which an "investment" should be made -- though as a trading vehicle, this stock is ideal...
    Jun 15, 2010. 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Strength May Bode Poorly for Equities [View article]
    H.T. Love - I'll bet a $ to a donut that SA changed the title on it. No?

    You are correct. The original title: "Forex Market Outlook: April 04-10"

    The chosen title definitely missed the article's intent, which is simply to offer a forecast for the coming week of Forex trading.
    Apr 4, 2010. 05:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Suspected Swiss Intervention [View article]
    Looks like the semiannual report on exchange rate policies has been delayed due to previous engagements for the Treasury Secretary. One would think that Mr. Geithner would have learned by now not to schedule overlapping meetings.

    I guess neither the Chinese nor the Swiss will be labeled as "manipulators" in the month of April.

    Smells an awful lot like a stall tactic ...

    www.bloomberg.com/apps...
    Apr 3, 2010. 01:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting That 2002 Feel All Over Again... [View article]
    2007? I'm already midway into 2008...
    Jun 29, 2010. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing, Banks and Global Credit: The Next Leg Down Awaits [View article]
    With all the conversation that has taken place -- which I have enjoyed and truly appreciate -- I do hope that a key message in this and previous articles was not lost -- Fade The Rallies!
    Jun 9, 2010. 03:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dire Consequences: Euro to Test Parity Against U.S. Dollar [View article]
    EU exporters primarily export to other EU member states. Spending cuts, unemployment and the general effects of economic contractions will certainly take its toll on EU exporters.

    It's a gloomy view, I know, but it is what it is...
    May 14, 2010. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Strength May Bode Poorly for Equities [View article]
    FOMC meeting minutes sound a bearish tone; US dollar down following release.

    Noteworthy points out of FOMC minutes:

    * Unemployement, housing remain obstacles to growth
    * Deflationary concerns remain -- though the term "deflation" will never be used by Fed
    * "Extended period" of low rates language will not preclude rate hikes in near term should such a move be warranted

    Overall, not a very optimistic view out of the Fed. The light USD decline following the release is unlikely to stick, as the minutes support the risk aversion play.

    *USD/JPY breaking lower, as expected -- this move is in line with risk aversion: forexplaybook.com/1318.../

    *EUR/USD higher following minutes, flirting with the 1.34 handle again. I cannot fathom an argument for buying the euro right now, so I expect this one to flip in short order

    *USD/CAD breaks below parity once again, last trading at 0.9996; EUR/CAD remains low, though bounced slightly to 1.3390

    *GBP/USD, AUD/USD head higher following the release, both at highs for the session
    Apr 6, 2010. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Dollar Strength May Bode Poorly for Equities [View article]
    damienhaas - sorry for the delayed response ... I didn't initially see your question about the carry trade. Though a longer term concern, I'll try to address your question.

    US dollar strength is not good for the carry trade for the simple fact that the carry trade thrives in economic environments that encourage risk taking behavior. USD strength is typically seen when risk aversion is at the fore.

    However, it's worth noting that the USD has become a far less popular currency for the carry trade. The primary reason is that the market sees central rates in the U.S. going up in the near future. There are a number of reasons to expect rate hike(s) in the U.S., not the least of which is inflation fears.

    The more popular currency for financing the carry trade is the yen (JPY). Interest rates in Japan are presently at 0.10% and a rate hike does not appear to be imminent in Japan as it would seem to be in the U.S.

    The best counter currency for the carry trade remains the Australian dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), where interest rates are the highest among the majors.

    To sum up -- USD strength is not good for the carry trade, but again the carry trade is a long-term concern.
    Apr 6, 2010. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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