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  • How You Can Trade The Apple World Wide Developers Conference Next Week [View article]
    wow dpk...that's quite a comment for a weekend. Your arguments pretty much explains how much efforts you might be putting in researching a trade before investing your money (but I may be wrong as you might be an astute investor but there is no way for me to conclude that yet).

    I am sure it took you sometime to write this long comment over the weeekend. These days even a 10year old kid know (at the least the world I live in) how to find information about someone via google (no sarcasm here). I wish you had spent some time doing that, you would have found information on all the points you mentioned above...

    Strange as it maybe, you claim to be an OPN subscriber and show so much concern about "name" but never cared/asked me before joining/or during the subscription????? humm....else you would have known almost everything about me (I have even shared with OPN members...time to time...when I lost my mom, when my father suffered a stroke, when I had my first child, 2nd child, where do i live, how much I am educated...etc etc?) and I answer question myself (not a robot/computer generated answer ). If you were a member, as you claim to be, where were you then my friend?

    You mention there is no information about the OPN Fee. Quite an observation!! then how did you find out what was the fee when you became subscriber as you claim to me? did you sign-up without knowing? How? Paypal will ask you before joining...did you sign-up without even looking at it? without considering it was worth or not? BTW, all the information about OPNewsletter is listed here->, did you ever care to read that before signing-up?

    Travis is a brilliant guy and I have lot of respect for him (I assume you are referring to Travis of Stock gumshoe). Do you know I have him in OP's "Best of web collection"....for past several years. Did you ever noticed that? or did you ever read the post when I introduced him to OP readers as well?

    Fish/Pond etc/Links etc- that's quite a conclusion I must say.
    First, do you think I should create seeking alpha article for free and let only SA/SA shareholders makes money? or give away my knowledge for free to someone who is going to use it commercially? I do a lot of voluntary work, charity and still continue regularly (I call it improving lives) and encourage others ->; where were you at that time?

    And you mentioned that you learned from SA so much, I think then it's time to give back..why not please think of writing and contributing to SA so others including me can learn from you as well.

    Whether Kim was a beginner or not 3 years ago, he was a real subscriber as he has kindly, openly shared that. He knows me, very well. We are even connected on FB and he still continues to be a member of OPNewsletter (I have joined him as well to support). More on that sometime later.

    What you call "tricks" I call it "bread and butter". Simplicity is beautiful. Unfortunately it is not sexy, not glamorous and therefore many traders continue to search for holy grail, which doesn't exist...and guess many simplicity is boring....I want money making to be as boring as possible because there is a life waiting, beyond trading, that needs to be enjoyed (by self and with others). However for whatever reasons, I have not yet reached at that boring enough point. Maybe you could guide me how to? and I will be willing to pay.

    Anyways, my best and sincere wishes. Please open up your heart and mind and you will find that there is a beautiful world out there (and it is simple). There is so much to learn. It is already difficult to make money consistently in these markets, it is even more difficult to help others make money with consistency.

    Have fun and no need to reply to my comments, pls use that time for enhancing knowledge further or spend that quality time with others surrounding you.
    Jun 11, 2012. 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Can Trade The Apple World Wide Developers Conference Next Week [View article]
    Dear dpk,

    1- First pls don't disrespect yourself by calling yourself idiot (because either you have never been OPN subscriber of if you did, then you signed-up for the wait list). I respect every individual including you; and I have very high regard for the customers I serve.

    2- what point are you raising? why is there a waiting list or why there is no waiting list? or why is there a wait listing for a limited time?

    3) You claim to know OP Income Newsletter more than others. I don't know if you know that for almost 3 years which included a mad bull/fierce bear market, OPN was a No profit, no fee newsletter for every single month!! (that's not 1 month trial...that's every month of almost 36 profit, no fee) never said (during the period you mention you know OPN) why is every month free if you don't make money? no suspicion then??

    4th, let's grow-up a little; Is waiting list a measurement of transparency? If yes, I don't think there is any need to discuss even further.

    And please do yourself a favor, I am sure you are very good at it but still.... start thinking and analyzing a bit more....was this post about selling OPNewsletter? In-stead of enriching the conversation by sharing your perspective on why does this happen (pre and post WWDC) or correcting me so I could also learn, you are making it unproductive. You are depriving us of your trading/analytical intelligence from which we all could potentially benefit.

    Have a good and thoughtful weekend
    Jun 8, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How You Can Trade The Apple World Wide Developers Conference Next Week [View article]
    Dear dpk...Thank you for taking time and writing comment.

    My friend, did you really click at the link..if you did you would know that it doesn't require one to sign-up..

    - Here is 2010 -> (it has screenshot of all the trades)
    - Here is 2011 post before it all began ->

    And I didn't say good, better or best trades/results. The post is to present an idea and the link provides result of those ideas...good or bad...

    It takes guts to post trades beforehand and then post results/screenshot with actual fills, especially on twitter or SA...since you follow my know very well what I do and how I trade....

    Name- > google can surely help in finding who OptionPundit is...but I think it can't help me find who "dpk" about adding a bit more information in your profile on SA before questioning others.....oh common my friend, be least I am more transparent and less secretive than dpk :)

    lastly...with due to respect to your feelings/comment, I hope you make money from the idea..and do let me know how you r trading this (maybe in advance with screenshots) so I could try my best to guide in case it turns out to be wrong...
    Jun 8, 2012. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Monster Beverage's Boom And Bust, All In A Day [View article]
    @John, I will prefer to be out before earning announcement tomorrow. But if I were still looking to stay long-> I will hedge it in way that my downside is protected while still participating in the rally.

    Valuation depends on the inputs-
    MNST has been growing at 9 yr FCF CAGR of 74%, 5yr CAGR at 33%, 3yr CAGR at 17% (for KO those are 6%, 7.6% and 5.4% respectively). So if you assume 15% CAGR going forward and after 5-7 years slowing down to 7-8%, roughly $70-$75 valuation might be a good one. Someone can always spin valuation with higher growth rate but at almost 37x FCF, I don't think MNST is really cheap. But that's just me.
    May 8, 2012. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Yourself Before Apple Falls Further [View article]
    An additional point -

    - The cash yield @ $110/share. You may know the breakdown of cash as per latest AAPL 10-Q [Latest balance sheet from Apple (, Page 3] is : $10.12billions cash, short term investment is $18.42 billions and Long term investment is $81.64 billions. Actually page 7 of the report gives a clear break-up of each "cash or investment component" and policies in fine-prints also gives an idea.

    I am assuming that as a value investor, you have already examined all the the securities where AAPL has invested. Could you pls share how quickly are those funds available (in comparison to cash) or the quality of those investments and who graded them and at what level? Maybe you could share what those $5.5billion Mortgage and asset-backed securities are?

    I am NOT saying that anything in that is bad or as per accounting they can't define it as cash or equivalent. I also don't doubt their management's abilities to invest in top quality investments.

    It depends on how you interpret data. 2007/08 credit has taught time and again, at least to me, to treat "cash" and "investments" differently. But that's me :) and I am open to learn continuously.
    May 8, 2012. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Yourself Before Apple Falls Further [View article]
    m1cha31, nice one :)

    You know I used that to refer to institutional/big investors. Smart ones get in and get out without much fanfare.
    May 8, 2012. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Yourself Before Apple Falls Further [View article]
    Dear remurraymd, Thank you for the comment. Assuming you have read the article, you might know that none of the scenario above is suggesting to sell shares. Nor, I am short (at the time of writing article).

    So you agree that AAPL takes a rest like this every 6month (neither I agree nor disagree). Let me assume that you are willing to take every resting opportunity to add more shares as those are more "undervalued", wouldn't it be nicer to make more money during this process? I am assuming that you are an excellent value investor who had patience and discipline to hold AAPL from $10 to $644 throughout past bear/bull cycles when stock markets almost halved and had this insight that AAPL pauses/pullsback every six month, don't you think it would have been nicer to allow puts to partially fund your subsequent purchases at lower prices?
    May 8, 2012. 12:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protect Yourself Before Apple Falls Further [View article]
    WDIK, thank you for the comment. It will make money because none of the scenario above is suggesting to sell shares (Base strategy). Thus gains will be= Apple price - Put value.
    May 8, 2012. 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Earnings Plays [View article]
    Firstly, thank you for sharing these stats Kim. Well done.

    Just a general comment for the readers and option traders out there.

    Playing earnings is always lucrative and will always be so, for one simple reason. "Potential" to make big in the shortest possible time. It is this desire and a few past successes which makes for a perfect "hindsight bias". This "hindsight bias" is what traders infer for future trades to be successful. When it is mixed with inappropriate capital allocation, it is a perfect recipe for disaster.

    It is true that phenomenal results can be achieved during this time. But there is no free lunch. Every trade has its unique risk and reward profile. What Kim is doing with RICs and Straddles/strangles is that he is limiting any big losses while still opportunistically generating realistic returns.

    You are absolutely right. Playing earnings is not for everyone. While one needs to be in total control of Greeks (Delta, gamma, theta and vega), you also need to factor in whisper numbers, pre-earning stock moves, who are the big boys holding shares, possible squeeze, recent news and analyst coverage (and their upgrades/downgrades before announcement), product introduction cycles (especially for manufactures), timing of earning announcement (yes!) in addition to fundamentals of the company...and guess what? in spite of all this hard work, your chances of being correct are still 50/50..Because what you did was to analyze past. You also need to review future beforehand- whether or not, they will raise or lower the guidance. And for companies like AAPL, you see, it's not for everyone and certainly one needs to be strategic about "where to play" and "how to play".

    Don't ignore this "event" just because there is too much uncertainty but instead develop your craft, seek guidance and success will be yours. What Kim is doing is that by choosing RICs/Straddles/strangles, he is eliminating the uncertainty and this is surely one of the good ways to play earnings.

    Profitable Trading, OP
    May 6, 2012. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Monster Beverage's Boom And Bust, All In A Day [View article]
    Thank you for your comment jaymarx.

    Absolutely. Everyone has to pay a "tuition fee" and still Mr Market isn't a kind teacher. I like how you defined it "...In time everyone gets their OWN lesson about 'confusing luck and skill'.
    May 3, 2012. 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading Monster Beverage's Boom And Bust, All In A Day [View article]
    I went long after it pulled back from the high.
    May 2, 2012. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Trade Apple Earnings Without Reading This First [View article]
    Dear DM, I think you got it when you said..." important it is to show your status"....of course there are other factors too...but this surely ranks amongst the highest and guess what...Apple is indisputable leader to create that "desire" and "symbolism" for the masses...

    ...super-rich usually don't carry what masses are carrying...
    Apr 26, 2012. 05:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Trade Apple Earnings Without Reading This First [View article]
    Kim, I think you must consider a trip to China. You will find that...What you have read/or reading and what you will be seeing are two different things :)
    Apr 26, 2012. 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Trade Apple Earnings Without Reading This First [View article]
    Actually, as you might know by now China pretty much saved per Tim...demand was "mind-boggling" in China, where revenue for the quarter was a record-high $7.9 billion...
    but I get your point, thank you for sharing.

    Regarding RIMM, well yeah, I do remember. In fact, I extended similar analogy for $GMCR as well when it was pretty much sitting at the top.
    Apr 25, 2012. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Trade Apple Earnings Without Reading This First [View article]
    dpk, thank you for comment.

    why now? better late than never :) and it's good be in the company of even wiser people. That's how we learn and improve.

    Your concerns shows that more can be done to improve OPNewsletter. I thank you for your feedback and will try more.

    Separately, as you may know, a newsletter can't replace classroom or face-to-face education. Learning "how to fish" requires discipline, mentorship, patience [remember, how boring it is to see someone fishing, how boring it becomes actually to wait for hours before you could really fish (regardless of the size)]. Think of it this way, you sign-up for a service whose main role is to share with you which pond to go, what time to go and also your probability of catching a fish. Would you ask that service to also to teach you "how to fish"?

    Investing is not a rocket science, there is no magical formula, there is no holy grail. It is a process that takes time. If you have been a subscriber of OPN, you might know that I don't introduce any underlying for trading unless I have tested with real money for at least six months.

    Though I have tried my best to provide education via OPNewsletter/forum/per... e-mails, wherever/whenever possible, I will continue to look for improvements.

    Should you have any other specific feedback, comment, pls write to me at-> optionpundit(at)gmail(... Let's keep this section for this article only please :)

    Thank you for taking time and writing.

    Profitable Trading
    Apr 25, 2012. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment