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Oriental Trader

 
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  • Shorting The Australian Dollar: This Time Is Different [View article]
    Re-entering short AUDJPY at 93.8. It appears AUDUSD did not rally much before reversing despite strong Chinese data, SP500 new highs and even markedly lower US Treasury yields.

    I conducted an in-depth study of the Australian economy over the weekend. Though it's always difficult to say when's the "right" time to go short, it appears unlikely Australia can deliver economic performance anywhere closer near what it has been doing over the last two decades. Of course, tomorrow's capex and Friday's credit growth data may or may not be good, but the long term downward pressure is significant. I'll publish that piece later.
    May 28 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting The Australian Dollar: This Time Is Different [View article]
    Covering short at 0.9250 for now. Big beat in Chinese pmi data last week and overall lack of downside catalysts make it a dangerous short with SP500 at new highs.
    May 26 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting The Australian Dollar: This Time Is Different [View article]
    I cite that the Fed has mostly exhausted its dovish language as the reason. They can't get much more dovish that indefinitely zero rates with their equally emphatic insistence on tapering.
    May 16 06:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Netflix, tesla, amazon, these all take huge sums of money to build, operate and grow. Yelp has a moat in that early reviews are valuable. Most FB users are not going to spend most of their time on FB reading 2 yr old wall posts.

    Whatsapp has shown us the dirty secret that SNS can be great for almost free and at this stage takes almost nothing to build.
    Feb 23 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    If users are expecting great experience and only $1/yr price. There will be two scenarios:

    WA gets maybe 3 billion users for $1/ yr, earnings topping out at $3 bn a year. The tail wags the dog and that $3 bn is all Fb is going to earn. ( assuming everyone starts expecting SNS for $1/yr and FB's ad business fades into irrelevance)

    Or

    FB starts charging more for WA and people leave for the next free thing.
    Feb 23 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    No one is still really close to challenging google on search. ( except baidu, who won because, well, google wasn't able to be in that market) And search is arguably different from FB wall posts.

    Some app pops out of nowhere and with a few million dollars, gains enough traction to pose a real threat to FB. I think there's a distinction there ;).
    Feb 23 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    The blogosphere could argue for years but WhatsApp's astronomical price at such low startup cost made it clear.
    Feb 23 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Be cautious and please don't appear on my door step if FB doubles first. :)
    Feb 23 10:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Well, AMZN spent $3.4 bn on capex alone in 2013. My point in contrasting FB and AMZN here is that the costs of creating, maintaining and even marketing an almost free SNS app can be near zero. Even NFLX spent $100 mn on house of cards. A big expense that made it into Forbes' coverage of the story is SMS verification texts at $500k a month. You can imagine how low the other costs must be if SMS verification costs are that mention worthy.http://onforb.es/1moc9cj
    Feb 23 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    I don't doubt FB will be huge for years to come. The question is At the price of how many more dilutive acquisitions?
    Feb 23 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Correct, whatsapp first raised $250k, then raised $8m, then after reaching 200 million users in 2013, it raised another $50 million.

    It appears to me that raising the money in 2013 was mostly for "just in case" purposes(source: http://onforb.es/1moc9cj ), it had $8.2 million in cash at that time, was turning a profit, had essentially built the business already with 200m users, and didn't substantially expand its size after receiving the $50 million.
    Feb 23 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    short.nzdjpy tryjpy at mkt
    Feb 19 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Swiss National Bank Go Japan On The Franc? [View article]
    FWIW, I am long EURCHF at 1.222. Just a personal opinion and bet, not a suggestion in any manner!
    Feb 13 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    Covered right now 101.51, fears over EM are easing and US data has been normal except for a few glitches. BoJ officials clamouring to hint at more easing if needed. USDJPY could go either way for a while, looking to short again later.
    Feb 6 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Swiss National Bank Go Japan On The Franc? [View article]
    Thanks for the detailed response, from a native nonetheless!

    With almost zero expectations for devaluation by the snb, the eurchf has become a low risk trade to get into. 1.222 now, 1.2 lower boundary. I have no idea what's going to happen next, but any increase in franc devaluation expectations would likely see the rate soar.
    Feb 1 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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