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Oriental Trader

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  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Netflix, tesla, amazon, these all take huge sums of money to build, operate and grow. Yelp has a moat in that early reviews are valuable. Most FB users are not going to spend most of their time on FB reading 2 yr old wall posts.

    Whatsapp has shown us the dirty secret that SNS can be great for almost free and at this stage takes almost nothing to build.
    Feb 23 11:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    If users are expecting great experience and only $1/yr price. There will be two scenarios:

    WA gets maybe 3 billion users for $1/ yr, earnings topping out at $3 bn a year. The tail wags the dog and that $3 bn is all Fb is going to earn. ( assuming everyone starts expecting SNS for $1/yr and FB's ad business fades into irrelevance)

    Or

    FB starts charging more for WA and people leave for the next free thing.
    Feb 23 11:04 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    No one is still really close to challenging google on search. ( except baidu, who won because, well, google wasn't able to be in that market) And search is arguably different from FB wall posts.

    Some app pops out of nowhere and with a few million dollars, gains enough traction to pose a real threat to FB. I think there's a distinction there ;).
    Feb 23 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    The blogosphere could argue for years but WhatsApp's astronomical price at such low startup cost made it clear.
    Feb 23 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Be cautious and please don't appear on my door step if FB doubles first. :)
    Feb 23 10:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Well, AMZN spent $3.4 bn on capex alone in 2013. My point in contrasting FB and AMZN here is that the costs of creating, maintaining and even marketing an almost free SNS app can be near zero. Even NFLX spent $100 mn on house of cards. A big expense that made it into Forbes' coverage of the story is SMS verification texts at $500k a month. You can imagine how low the other costs must be if SMS verification costs are that mention worthy.http://onforb.es/1moc9cj
    Feb 23 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    I don't doubt FB will be huge for years to come. The question is At the price of how many more dilutive acquisitions?
    Feb 23 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If WhatsApp Is Worth $19 Billion, Then Facebook Isn't Worth $173 Billion [View article]
    Correct, whatsapp first raised $250k, then raised $8m, then after reaching 200 million users in 2013, it raised another $50 million.

    It appears to me that raising the money in 2013 was mostly for "just in case" purposes(source: http://onforb.es/1moc9cj ), it had $8.2 million in cash at that time, was turning a profit, had essentially built the business already with 200m users, and didn't substantially expand its size after receiving the $50 million.
    Feb 23 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    short.nzdjpy tryjpy at mkt
    Feb 19 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Swiss National Bank Go Japan On The Franc? [View article]
    FWIW, I am long EURCHF at 1.222. Just a personal opinion and bet, not a suggestion in any manner!
    Feb 13 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    Covered right now 101.51, fears over EM are easing and US data has been normal except for a few glitches. BoJ officials clamouring to hint at more easing if needed. USDJPY could go either way for a while, looking to short again later.
    Feb 6 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will The Swiss National Bank Go Japan On The Franc? [View article]
    Thanks for the detailed response, from a native nonetheless!

    With almost zero expectations for devaluation by the snb, the eurchf has become a low risk trade to get into. 1.222 now, 1.2 lower boundary. I have no idea what's going to happen next, but any increase in franc devaluation expectations would likely see the rate soar.
    Feb 1 10:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bankers' Dilemma And The Fed's Inevitable Taper [View article]
    Two tapers in a row, anyone want to continue the debate?
    Jan 30 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    Just went short USDJPY(long yen )at 103. Putting my money where my mouth is.
    Jan 29 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Short The Yen [View article]
    Well, one can hold a long term unleveraged core position and make adjustments accordingly. If you look at all the big moves this year after April, most were ranging, not trending. These 5-10% swings happened at least three times while optimism flowed or ebbed. So might be worthwhile trying to capture some of these. At the very least, anyone with a leveraged exposure to usdjpy should be cautious. 3:1 at 105 is -45% at 90.
    Jan 27 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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