I am very new to investing and trading, and got into the market in late 2012 after pretend-investing for a few months, but I have had good luck so far.
I recently decided to try my hand at article writing, as I often leave rather detailed and lengthy comments on other articles. The amount of revisions required to get an article published was a bit discouraging, and did not allow me to mention opportunities in a timely fashion, so now I am back to just commenting.
In 2013, I was the windshield.
While my background in biotechnology gives me a great perspective into high growth companies, I prefer to focus on equities that are undervalued no matter what sector they fall under. I focus on fundamentals such as Price/Free-Cash-Flow and Price/Book to determine the ideal value of the company and I research management and their prior experience to determine whether to discount or add a premium to the ideal value. I do not use technical data to determine what makes a good investment. Rather, I use it to determine when is the best time to open or close a position in a company that I have determined to be undervalued or overvalued.
China First Capital was established in 2007 and has its headquarters in Shenzhen, China. It serves a distinguished group of clients, including industry leaders in China, both private sector companies and SOEs as well as global corporations actively expanding within China.
Peter's insights and analysis on China, its capital markets and private equity industry are often featured in international media including The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Economist, New York Times, Washington Post, Bloomberg, China Daily. Peter is an occasional columnist for three prominent Chinese-language business publications, 21st Century Herald, Caijing and Forbes China.
For up-to--date commentary and analysis, visit: www.chinafirstcapital.com/blog
Linkedin profile: cn.linkedin.com/in/peterfuhrman
Founding China First Capital is the fulfillment of a deeply-held ambition nurtured for 30 years. "I first came to China in 1981, as one of the earlier American graduate students in China. I left China after school. But, throughout, I never lost sight of the goal to return to China and start a business that would contribute meaningfully to the country’s revival and prosperity."
I currently work as a portfolio trader for a major institutional investor, and am pursuing the CFA designation.
I focus more on valuations and risk/reward metrics as opposed to what make companies tick.
I have been a professional investor for over 20 years and during the past several years an economics analyst and financial writer for capital.gr, the biggest economic news portal in Greece.
I have managed money from time to time and have also done some seed venture capital projects in the past.
Commodity broker 79-81
I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81
My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp.
See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity)
The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string").
As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”:
Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions.
The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude.
President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes".
"It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity"
"Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits).
This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct.
flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672)
If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm
Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm »
the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend
flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04
Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH:
"Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely."
Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus:
jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top
feb..... 0.50.... 0.10
mar.... 0.54.... 0.08
apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top
may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall
Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May.
Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)"
flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM
The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day).
POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM |
The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006.
10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom
11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18
1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06
2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10
3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04
4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02
5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04
6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05
7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10
8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05
9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13
10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession
11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession
12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession
Trajectory as predicted:
12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5
"We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger"
June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher).
20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply
This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
My name is Scott Sumner and I have taught economics at Bentley University for the past 27 years. I earned a BA in economics at Wisconsin and a PhD at Chicago. My research has been in the field of monetary economics, particularly the role of the gold standard in the Great Depression. I had just begun research on the relationship between cultural values and neoliberal reforms, when I got pulled back into monetary economics by the current crisis.
Not a blogger,no need to promote my company, enjoy SA and Business Spectator.
His major interest is in providing independent consulting services to the Fund Management industry.
Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy.
Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc.
Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client.
Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.
Edward Hugh Too (http://edwardhughtoo.blogspot.com/)
Global Economy Does Matter (http://globaleconomydoesmatter.blogspot.com/index.html)
Demography Matters (http://demographymatters.blogspot.com/)
I've also interviewed and argued with hundreds of big name investors like Jim Rogers, Dr. Marc Faber, Rick Rule, Ross Beaty, Doug Casey, Vitaliy Katsenelson, David McAlvany, Todd Harrison, etc on Wall St for Main St podcasts.
I've worked in the past as an IAR/RIA (fancy name for a stock broker) at a very large retail firm and as a full time investment analyst at a well known paid newsletter company for retail investors for my day job.
Mr. Altucher is the founder of Stockpickr.com, a social network for finance that had millions of unique visitors per month when it was sold to TheStreet.com in 2007. He has written over 200 columns for The Financial Times and has written for TheStreet.com, Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Fidelity.com, and other publications. He was also the founder of a web services firm, Reset Inc, which he sold in 1998, at which time he became a partner at VC firm, 212 Ventures/Investcorp. Mr. Altucher regularly appears on CNBC, Fox News, Fox Business, and CNN Radio, and is also in his spare time a nationally ranked chess master. Mr. Altucher received his BA at Cornell University and attended graduate school for computer science at Carnegie Mellon University.
You can follow him on twitter @jaltucher.
Dr. Morss received a B.A. from Williams College in 1960 and a Ph.D. in political economy from The Johns Hopkins University in 1963. He has taught at the University of Michigan, Harvard, Boston University, Brandeis, and most recently at the University of Palermo in Buenos Aires.
For several years, he worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund. He later helped establish Development Alternatives, Inc. (dai.com), a firm that became the largest contractor to the U.S. foreign assistance program (AID). Since his first IMF assignment in Ghana in 1966, he has worked in 45 countries.
He has been the President of the Asia-Pacific Group, a British Virgin Islands for profit company with investments in Cambodia, China, and Myanmar. With Dr. Zhu Jia-Ming, he established Green China, an American NGO with the mission to increase the dialogue in China on the trade-offs between economic growth and environmental preservation.
Dr. Morss has co-authored six books and published more than 50 articles in professional journals.
He is currently available for consulting assignments.
Was previously an international-business executive, general manager and entrepreneur in the medical-technology industry. Also provided consulting, related to general management, new-venture formation and acquisition of venture capital.
Education: Brown University, School of Engineering (Sc. B. '71); University of Virginia, Darden School of Business Administration (MBA '73).
Present Home: Sarasota, FL
Previous Homes: New York City, Mountain View, CA
Hometown: Baltimore, MD
On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.
I'm not always right with recommendations, but investors and readers can know that I always tell the truth (there is no deception) and I eat my own cooking as recommendations are either always owned OR the reason I dont own them is given (usually related to restrictions on stocks I can buy).
Advising people in financial matters is a serious issue and integrity is much more important than money to me, but I do believe both can co-exist. You live with money, but after your death you only have your morality and integrity and thus i've made my choice between the two. A bit philosophical for a bio, but I dont think there's a better way to give investors my background than that.
We offer investors a free weekly email list detailing gold, silver, and general economic markets which you can sign up for at: http://www.communitysynergy.com/subscribe/hebbainvestments_subscribe.html
Spending a fair amount of time reading and analyzing sectors where I feel opportunity for investment goals and skills, sectors as Energy and Technology stocks in a mix of dividend stocks (70%) and growth increasingly in options (20%), and a final 10% for speculation.
Living part time between Barcelona, Spain, and a few months a year in Rio Grande Valley in South of Texas and a motor-home in Europe.
Currently doing investment strategy consulting for institutional investors
Undergraduate degree from Northwestern, Economics
Taught Advanced Financial Markets Class at a University in Chicago
In to Yoga.