Otto Rock

How to Explain Fiat Currency to Silverbugs

Truth hurts

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Indeed, Bron. Eloquently put. And that was the whole point of my article, really.

If........

1) I were sitting on the trading desk of one of those big two/four/eight anonymous banks that certainly play PMs both ways, and

2) I saw the ST structural weakness beginning to develop in gold due to a pending dollar rebound, and

3) I knew that Ag traditionally gives me leverage to Au, and

4) my boss agreed with my call, and his boss with him...you know what? I'd short the hell out of silver as well.

It may come as a shock, but it's not unusual for large financial institutions to trade assets to make paper gains. However, a single successful trade to the short side is not proof that there's a conspiracy. It's an asinine argument. What happened was that somebody was smart, made the trade and won. Period. That's what markets are designed for the last time I checked.

But as the last three years of spot silver vs COT clearly shows (and nobody has even bothered to try and refute this) is that there is no automatic relationship between "COT short up = silver down". In fact, for most of the last three years the situation has been "COT short up = silver up" (and vice versa).

Mikel makes a good point, too. If what happened really were illegal, the proposed Butler class action would be a pretty easy win for the oppressed masses. It may come late, as SEC should be swarming all over the Ag pit by now, shouldn't they?

Oh yeah...forgot...they'r... illuminati PTB, too. But all the same, the Butler cheerleaders should at least ask him if he's going to file some sort of action.

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Be careful breethedeep, you may get knocked over in the rush to judgement.

Meanwhile, after haveing read through the latest batch of huffing and puffing i note that no attempt to rebut the three main points of the article, so just in case somebody feels like enlightening me, here they are again

* 60% short position in COT is not that unusual

* In 2005, short interest dropped hard, but it didn't affect the price of silver in the slightest

* For a long time through 2006, 2007 and 2008, short interest moved in conjunction with the price of silver. That means that when there were more shorts on board, the price of silver ignored the commercial traders and just moved on up (and vice versa).

Or maybe you're waiting for Butler to do it for you?

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Thanks for all the ad-hom comments that only show your lack of decent, mature rebuttals. Meanwhile, would anyone like to address the three points made in the article....

* 60% short position in COT is not that unusual

* In 2005, short interest dropped hard, but it didn't affect the price of silver in the slightest

* For a long time through 2006, 2007 and 2008, short interest moved in conjunction with the price of silver. That means that when there were more shorts on board, the price of silver ignored the commercial traders and just moved on up (and vice versa).

...or will you just keep your collective heads in the sand about COT silver and its proven lack of influence on the metal?

Those that know me (not pretend they can guess about me) know that i'm happy to admit that I'm wrong about any issue. It's one of the things that makes me a successful investor. However, all i've seen so far from these comments are a bunch of peope who feel hurt that someone dared point out the obvious, and either

1) rely on words from their mentors (who, by the way, called silver and gold dead wrong when it dropped and then scambled to cover their tracks with conspiracy theories. All except, perhaps, Ron Rosen)

2) use personal insults to hide their impotence in the face of facts.

Sorry, There Is No Silver Conspiracy

Message to all serious investors who read the article and then read the comments left underneath: I rest my case.