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Pankaj Chandak

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  • Tilly's: Retailer With A Broken IPO Is A Double [View article]
    No worries. The experience on the SA can be so different for different people. But generalizing ones experience is almost always going to fall flat. I will be honest to admit some skepticism on my part when posting it on TLYS. But I have learnt to tune out the noise on SA and pick on the comments that are really insightful such as yours. In the end, I care to pick the right stocks for the right reasons. Thanks for your comments on insider selling. I had not thought about it before.
    Jan 8 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Retailer With A Broken IPO Is A Double [View article]
    Thank you for taking time to review it. Feel free to follow me, I will be posting 10 ideas for the year. Sorry about the plug here.

    Piper's concern could be valid but not material to the story. Its because of that report, I added a section to discuss if the category is growing or not. Also, Tilly's has one of the best eCommerce track record with ~11% of sales coming from their site.
    Jan 8 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Retailer With A Broken IPO Is A Double [View article]
    Thanks for taking the time to review the article.

    Consider the following:
    a) Between the co-founders, they still own over 50% of the company. Based on SEC 4 forms, it looks like an automatic selling plan for new options being allocated to Tilly Levine.

    b) The employees are buying. ~400K since Nov. A tiny bit but still reassuring.

    People could sell for many reasons. But there is only one reason to buy.

    I don't have any more insights, but will definitely check with the management on next earnings call.
    Jan 8 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Retailer With A Broken IPO Is A Double [View article]
    It wont happen every year. It happened this year due to the IPO and stock options..
    Jan 4 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Growth At A Reasonable Price Could Provide Strong Returns [View article]
    Very nice summary. Check my article on TLYS.
    Jan 4 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Retailer With A Broken IPO Is A Double [View article]
    Insider-Alerts, thanks for taking the time to post your comments.

    Consider the following:

    1) Let me address the earnings part first. A closer look at the earnings show that decline in earnings can be explained by increase in SG&A (which is expected when 26 new stores are opened) and diluted share count.

    For the first 39 months (Q1 to Q3 2012), Net sales are up 17.6% YoY, SG&A is up 29.7% YoY and Diluted share count is up 24% YoY. The operating margins are up 10 bps. The operating metrics look good and the core business is holding up well.

    2) New stores maturation will provide tail winds to SSS comps in 2013 & contribute to earnings growth. In its first year, a new store does $2.2M in sales Vs $2.75M average for the franchise average. 26 new stores opened in CY12. It will also reduce California exposure.

    3) You could be right. The stock may not move for a while but I am willing to wait. TLYS is throwing out nice cash flow, while it executes on the unit growth opportunity. I believe the concept is relevant in all parts of the US, so intend to hold it for longer term (4-5 years). It is difficult for me to forecast earnings next quarter or predict the next earnings surprise.

    4) I feel that the downside is limited because of the cash and the free cash flow generated by the business. The risk is more on the upside, if they really surprise in the near term, the stock could move quickly.

    5) I like ZUMZ too. It is also a terrific franchise run by a top-notch management team. However, I prefer TLYS over other retailers because of the better visibility to its longer term growth runway.
    Jan 4 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does the President Know, and When Did He Know It: "We're not in a recession..." [View article]
    Bush is the worst thing that has happened to the world since hitler. He f**ed up on everything.
    1) messed up economy.
    2) housing crisis.
    3) unbalanced budget. hugh tread deficit.
    4) Weak dollar. This has been a significant cause for oil price increases and commodity price increases. There is growing unrest in many countries because of rising cost of food.
    5) He made america less secure. Iraq is a major recruiting ground for al qaida.

    What a junk. what a waste this man has been.
    Apr 24 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment