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Paolo Gorgo  

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  • Jamba Juice: From Turnaround To Growth Story, Risk/Reward Looks Favorable [View article]
    The share price decline started before SA published my article, so I'd blame the revenue miss instead... kidding apart, the story remains intact, in my opinion, in spite of revenues not meeting analysts consensus this quarter.

    I'm not paying much attention to management buying shares - there are many reasons why they might also be restricted in their actions (or have already enough skin in the game due to stock options). I'd rather look at their performance, and the CEO seems to have done pretty well so far.
    Aug 7, 2013. 03:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jamba Juice: From Turnaround To Growth Story, Risk/Reward Looks Favorable [View article]
    Last night the company reported revenues of $67.3 million for Q2 13, vs analysts expectations of $70.41 million.

    I see this miss as the main driver for the sell off, but also just as a road bump for Jamba Juice in the long term (I am assuming there are several initiatives that will help increasing revenues).

    The stock may remain week for a while, but I hope "patient investors" will be rewarded.
    Aug 6, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Delivers Its Best Q2 Ever, Hints At New Potential Revenue Streams [View article]
    Nice to hear from you again - hope you're well. Good old times exchanging diligence on EQIX. It's really been a great turnaround story. I have been invited to their most recent analyst day, and it was really a great event. Hard to believe in the dark times where they'd be headed.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I'll have a look at HIMX - the company is not on my radar screen at the moment.

    Ciao.
    Aug 5, 2013. 03:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Delivers Its Best Q2 Ever, Hints At New Potential Revenue Streams [View article]
    EPS were in line with analysts expectations (and my own, for what it's worth).

    I'd expect a better EPS performance in Q3 and Q4 2013 - however, I think there are other metrics which may be as interesting to follow to track the company's performance (cash flow, adj. EBITDA).

    Litigation costs are still hurting the bottom line ($0.5 million in Q2), and there are non-cash charges related to depreciation and amortization, and stock-based compensation that summed up to roughly $1.7 million in Q2.

    Going forward, and absent litigation costs, it will be interesting to understand if the company will be able to keep OpEx under control. I expect (hope) it will be possible. Given the business model, every additional revenue $ should flow directly to the bottom line, so I expect EPS too to improve dramatically if the company executes well.

    Thanks for your comment.
    Aug 3, 2013. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Seriously, Don't Mess With Texas [View instapost]
    Congrats Samir!
    Jul 13, 2013. 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    IMMR is performing worse than a bad market - I believe last week was the 2nd worst one of the year for S&P 500 and Dow and the 3rd worst week of the year for the NASDAQ. May be momentum players are leaving the stock - but it's just speculation on my side.

    Here's a quick link to FINVIZ for some TA:

    http://bit.ly/14oO8bg

    Some comments on the company's latest PR:

    http://bit.ly/14oOaj7

    May be Sharp doesn't add much excitement to investors, but it may be more interesting to see this company as the latest OEM converting to haptics as it becomes a must have in the Japanese market.

    Here is a look at NTT docomo's smartphone offering - mostly haptic enabled phones:

    http://bit.ly/14oOajb
    Jun 25, 2013. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    The recent CEO stock sale, though according to a pre-set trading plan, has hit the stock hardly recently. Time will tell if it's just a road bump on the way up or if the stock is due for a correction. I remain positive for the longer term, for the reasons expressed in the article.
    Jun 10, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    Oldie,

    nice to hear from you again and thanks for the comment.

    My crystal ball has never been good at guessing short time movements. It's probably a bit more reliable when we talk about long term directions.

    I agree with you that today's price incorporates high expectations, and may also be the result of some momentum players who could turn their attention to other stocks. However, there are still plenty of catalysts that could help IMMR become the cash cow we've envisioned for so long.

    Recent events seem to indicate that the inflection point is now behind the company, and hopefully this should make execution easier for management going forward. I expect a lot from the automotive sector, and I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few years, we could think of mobility as just one of IMMR's vertical, rather than its main revenue source.
    Jun 10, 2013. 12:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 242: June 8: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    As a result of the Vernon shutdown,
    Exide had to source lead requirements from its remaining recycling facilities, open-market
    purchases of refined lead, and third-party lead recyclers to make up for the lost capacity
    increasing its costs. The Vernon shutdown will directly impact Exide’s bottom line by
    eliminating an estimated $24 million in projected EBITDA from its business plan for the sixmonth
    period following the shutdown. Approximately two weeks after the CDTSC order,
    Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service lowered its corporate credit rating of Exide to triple-C-plus,
    which further constrained Exide’s liquidity due to the tightened availability of trade credit.
    25. As a result of the Vernon shutdown and the Company’s poor financial
    performance in the fourth fiscal quarter of 2013, it became apparent that a successful out-ofcourt
    restructuring was unlikely.
    Jun 10, 2013. 05:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 242: June 8: Axion Power Reports First Quarter Results For 2013 [View instapost]
    at first sight worthless paper. Bond quotes:

    http://bit.ly/15PoH3J;MaturityMax=
    Jun 10, 2013. 03:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    grecale, dpk, InvestingInvestor, tellsu12, liberated: thanks for your kind comments.
    May 31, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    tough to say - I envision it as the result of better than forecasted results for 2013, which could lead to the market recognizing that the company can become a great cash cow for the next few years.

    However, I wouldn't be surprised if some other external events (new agreements, buy out, etc.) lead to similar levels a shorter time frame.
    May 31, 2013. 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion Corporation: The Best Is Yet To Come [View article]
    I obviously would have preferred a different outcome from the Microsoft litigation than a free ride on a perpetual basis of Immersion's patents, but that's history right now.

    While it is true that in theory Microsoft could avoid paying any royalty to IMMR, I believe Immersion could still play a role to help MSFT implement haptics into their OS - and this could come at a cost for Microsoft.

    Let's take the mobility vertical as an example.

    Nokia had some of the best haptic implementations available in the market - Windows phone does not include haptics at all. My channel checks indicate that Nokia is pushing for haptics to be back, but it's up to MSFT right now to include it in the OS.

    As more apps implement haptics, I believe MSFT could feel more pressure to go for it, and turning to IMMR could help make it quicker and in the right way.

    Immersion's tools to implement haptics into the Android platform have been very successful. Originally, the business model included getting a 5% royalty from app developers - a possibility I wouldn't rule out for the future also on a Windows based OS.

    While I am a bit skeptical about Windows phone's capacity to gain a large market share in mobility, I would obviously see this platform implementing haptics (even if this doesn't bring any immediate royalty to IMMR) as a sign that haptics has become a "must have" - good news.
    May 31, 2013. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 216: Mar. 10: Axion Power And EPower Engine Systems Inaugurate Strategic 18-Wheeler Alliance Using PbC Batteries In Hybrid Drive Trains For Class 8 Trucks [View instapost]
    First of all, an apology to all the Axionistas. I’d like to share some thoughts on the Valence Bankruptcy hoping some of the knowledgeable posters here can step in and answer some question / underline the weak points of this thinking. It is related to the sector, and as such I hope you may also consider it a description of a potential scenario (climate/ landscape) where Axion is operating. Under this scenario both A123 and Valence could end up as part of bigger competitors.
    I’m mainly the messenger, as I’ve stolen the approach from another investor.
    When Valence filed for bankruptcy, it looked like Berg, its major shareholder and owner of more than 90% of the company’s debt, was going to use bk to wipe out shareholders (including himself) and take full control of the company. A request for an equity committee was denied. The company expected to re-emerge by year’s end (2012).
    Then A123 filed.
    JCI acted as the stalking horse in a 363 sale of that company, but ended up losing against Wanxian. The price doubled to roughly $250 million. Hot bidding war. JCI wasn’t happy about the result and tried to block the deal even after losing it. Unsuccessfully.
    Back to Valence.
    The company hasn’t re-emerged yet – the opposite. It filed in court to hire two investment banks looking for equity financing. May be it was something due after A123 showed there may be more value than expected for good IP in the sector. However, it is interesting the investment banks will get only half commission if a deal is closed with JCI and a few other companies (that might have already expressed interest in the company?).
    Speculation time. May be Valence (Berg) has now realized that post bk Valence will have a different kind of competitor, giant Wanxiang rather than a relatively small and probably still financially weak A123. A tougher competitor for scale, financial and production capacity, etc. etc. May be in the long term a plan B can be now more rewarding both for the company (its management) and its major lender/shareholder: a sale to a big guy, who can take also advantage (in part) of its large NOLs. Berg would just get as much money as possible back (first as creditor and lastly as shareholder), depending on how many people you can get to bid and what price comes out.
    Questions: am I correct thinking JCI is pretty weak on IP in the lithium battery sector? A buy out of Valence would strengthen its patent portfolio. May be A123 and Valence had no interest (financial capacity) to start a legal fight with a big guy, but Wanxiang owning A123 may set a completely different scenario. It’s also about building a decent defense in case things get tough.
    Here are the names of companies included in the “reduced commission” list for the investment banks: Berg, JCI, SAIF, Enertech Capital, Via Motors. I’d appreciate any comment on the last 3 companies (strengths, financial capabilities, etc).
    Could Valence be worth over $120 million in a bidding war? The NOLs are impressive, but could only be used in part. (Section 382 limitation - Following a “more than 50%” ownership change, corporations ability to deduct pre-ownership change NOL’s is limited. If an ownership change occurs in a bankruptcy case, the calculation of the annual limitation is based on the value of the corporation immediately after the ownership change. Since this calculation is usually after significant debt relief, the equity value is higher, more NOLs).
    Axion related: if I got it right the long time horizon is not competing with the big guys, but becoming a partner to them. Safer, and pretty smart as a strategy. However, here comes the reference to "sources that are in alignment with our business objectives" for the next financing round. Just wondering if any of the previous big names could be interested in getting additional IP in the sector (even outside of lithium, and through a partnership and not necessarily a buyout ) at a time it seems on fashion to do so (the hotter demand for IP is, the easier it may be for Axion). And given the fact the Axion is only looking for a financing, and not on sale, how this deal could be structured.
    Thanks.
    Mar 11, 2013. 02:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Immersion's New Multi-Year Licensing Deal With Samsung: Increased Royalty Rates Plus Basic Haptic [View article]
    Let me disagree with your comment, for several reasons.

    The parts I quoted from the Apple - Samsung court case clearly show that haptics was considered by Samsung an integral part of its development of the Galaxy range and a key differentiator from Apple's iPhone. A strong validation of haptics and a very good reason why Samsung renewed the licence with IMMR.

    Understanding how Android and iOS differ as to haptics is also key to understand why Immersion hasn't taken a clear position, yet, toward Apple for their use of haptics:

    Mark McMahon - FBL

    Okay. But what you just mentioned did sound a lot like that they are – potentially infringing on your basic haptics, with like the alert system, that sort of thing?

    Vic Viegas - President & CEO

    With regards to Apple, we’ve never made that statement. Now we’ve not taken a position that it’s infringing or that it’s not infringing. We have taken a position that the android operating system has currently shipping is using basic haptics which is covered by our patent portfolio.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Apple filed several patents about haptics, as I discussed in a few of my previous articles about IMMR.

    http://bit.ly/10mDArN

    Apple is certainly aware of Immersion and interested in the space - actually we can't rule out it could even consider a buy out of Immersion, given the strength of Immersion's IP and patent portfolio, and what this could mean for many of Apple's competitors which are Immersion's licensees (or may be infringing basic haptics).

    I find it hard to consider the inclusion of the Apple ticker in this article as just a way "to get more views": on purpose I did not put GM and VC as that could be considered a stretch (although the companies are mentioned as licensees), but Apple is a key part of it. I'd say that an Apple investor could also get interesting information about areas (haptics and Samsung litigation) he/she might not have considered/be aware of.
    Mar 9, 2013. 12:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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