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Paolo Pezzutti
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Paolo Pezzutti has been active in the financial markets for over 20 years and is currently based in America. He has his own trading blog at short-termtrading.blogspot.com (http://short-termtrading.blogspot.com/), and contributes to other websites including Working Money, Advantage.com and Daily... More
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  • Nasdaq Screening
    The 60-minute trend is up according to the force index indicator. The %b indicator is developing a negative divergence. The market continues to be strong. The Nasdaq and S&P have already printed a breakout of the ascending triangle (objective reached at 1880). The Nasdaq is outperforming the Dow and the S&P in this phase. Only prices re-entering the trading range would provide a negative signal. I admit that I have been on the sides of this markets for months now, entering only for some short-term trades but missing the move up with some good buy and hold position. I frankly did not see what was happening, where the liquidity was going. May be the fundamentals are not here to drive this market. However, the money is coming into this market and this is going to continue until this virtuous (or vicious) circle is interrupted for some reason. This looks quite irrational to me, as there are more one element to be prudent in this situation.

    CMCSA printed a new 20-day low. Several stocks printed new 20-day highs: AAPL, AKAM, DELL, JAVA, NVDA, QCOM, SIRI, TLAB, VRSN, YHOO.
    SIRI printed 3 consecutive up closes. NTAP printed 3 consecutive down closes. Most of the stocks are moving above their moving averages.

    In the Figure you can see a summary of the trend conditions of the Index stocks. I used the 20, 50, 100 and 200 days moving average of the close. The background is Green when the close is > than the moving average. Red when it is below and yellow when it crosses. + and - indicate the slope of the moving average.

    RANGE ANALYSIS
    I have also programmed Tradestation Radarscreen to display:
    - range of the past 20 trading sessions (%);
    - % from the lowest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
    is RED if the close of today is the lowest close of the past 20 days.
    - % from the highest close of the past 20 trading session. The cell
    is GREEN if the close of today is the highest close of the past 20 days.
    In the other columns I included the % of the close from the 20,50 and 100 days moving average.

    CONSECUTIVE UP/DOWN CLOSES
    I have programmed the Tradestation Radarscreen to display how nany consecutive up/down closes have been printed and what is the probability that the next day tomorrow) the asset closes in the opposite direction. I have calculated the probability using the past 1000 trading days.


    Disclosure: no positions
    Jan 05 11:08 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Should Apple Fear The Google Phone?

    Read this article:
    A Slam on Apple: Google's New Phone
    Google(NASDAQ:GOOG) is set to present its own phone, turning up the heat up on Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone. Reviews about the phone are good. It is powered by Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) processor and it is built by HTC.
    A supercharged Google phone debuts at a time when Apple has been enjoying its third year of success with the iPhone. But three years with the same design is a long time in the gadget business, and every bright shiny device with a load of buzz is a potential threat.

    Is this a problem for Apple? I am not sure as Apple printed again new highs today.
    By the way, in a previous post
    Apple Inc (AAPL): Time to short Apple?
    I reported some bear views on the stock.

    In my last post Apple Inc (AAPL): Earnings Blowout ,
    I reported how fundamentals are strong for the stock as Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu lifted his EPS estimate for the fiscal first quarter to $2.15 from $1.99; his revenue forecast goes to $12.43 billion from $11.66 billion. For the September 2010 fiscal year, he goes to $44.39 billion and $7.40 a share, from $41.74 billion and $6.80. Wu also confirmed his buy rating and lifted his price target to $253, from $235. Wu expects Apple to report shipments of 2.9 million Macs and 22 million iPods.

    Technically the stock has managed to breakout a long consolidation area initiated back in October. Only a return within this trading range would be negative.

    Disclosure: no positions
    Tags: AAPL, GOOG, QCOM, tech
    Jan 05 12:32 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple Inc (AAPL): Earnings Blowout
    Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu lifted his EPS estimate for the fiscal first quarter to $2.15 from $1.99; his revenue forecast goes to $12.43 billion from $11.66 billion. For the September 2010 fiscal year, he goes to $44.39 billion and $7.40 a share, from $41.74 billion and $6.80.
    Wu also confirmed his buy rating and lifted his price target to $253, from $235. Wu expects Apple to report shipments of 2.9 million Macs and 22 million iPods.
    Apple: December Qtr EPS Blowout?

    Apple after the breakout of the upper trendline has developed a negative divergence of the %b indicator. The force index indicator, howeve, is still positive. If prices re-enter trading range ($208), it would be a negative signal. I would not be a buyer at this level because if this breakout is a bull trap...

    See my old post about Apple:
    Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL): A New Tablet for Apple

    Last news about Apple:
    - A report suggested the company might be getting ready for a tablet computer, a product between a laptop and an iPod Touch. The news is not really new and came out already a few weeks ago when Oppenheimer issued a note on the subject.
    - JP Morgan Securities raised its price target on Apple Inc by 4.5 percent, citing better-than-expected growth momentum for Mac, iPhone and iPod.
    Estimates were raised for the December quarter and price target to $230.
    - Apple is asking the court to dismiss Nokia's complaints and enter a judgment in favor of Apple in which Nokia would be declared in breach of contract regarding the use of its wireless technology.
    - China Unicom (NYSE:CHU) has recorded over 100,000 iPhones sold since the smartphone debuted in China forty days ago on October 30.
    - one note (Oppenheimer & Co.) suggested that Apple tablet could be rolled out in March next year, competing with e- readers from Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Sony and Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:BKS).


    Disclosure: no positions

    Disclosure: no positions
    Jan 03 9:06 AM | Link | Comment!
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