Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
Granted, geopolitical risk arguably persists, but there is no new information there - i.e., we know it to be the same today as it was a week ago. With supply-demand forecast, it's new information, which the markets have not been focusing on (even though it may have been known by some experts). Lastly, the fact that a lot of supply will be coming form North America is not exclusive to IEA - so IEA's accuracy is not an issue (it's just the messenger in this case).
Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
Agree, supply is not the only factor. It is a factor, though. And the expectation that supply growth will exceed demand growth is new information coming from the IEA, which is what makes it significant.
msteck, yes, that's exactly my point. 170 tons was sold by GLD in 4 months even before the selloff on Friday-Monday. Cyprus holds 14 tons total (you can see it on Word Gold Council's site:http://bit.ly/Zw2VxK), so it may have been the catalyst but not the real reason.
So my conclusion is that gold/GLD entered a serious downtrend - assuming an orderly market. If the selling of bullion proves too much, it's possible that GLD is decoupled from gold, as some folks commented here.
msteck, yes, that's exactly my point. 170 tons was sold by GLD in 4 months even before the selloff on Friday-Monday. Cyprus holds 14 tons total (you can see it on Word Gold Council's site:http://bit.ly/Zw2VxK), so it may have been the catalyst but not the real reason.
So my conclusion is that gold/GLD entered a serious downtrend - assuming an orderly market. If the selling of bullion proves too much, it's possible that GLD is decoupled from gold, as some folks commented here.
Abegaz, you point is well taken, if one does short-term trading. It's hard for me to time short-term price movements though; if someone can - great. My advice was for someone who held for at least, say, 3-5 years, and accumulated gains. In my view, gold/GLD entered a downtrend, which really matters for most investors (meaning - someone with a year horizon, or longer).
Also, sorry for some delay - the article was written on the weakend, but takes SA some time to publish. With Monday's 9% drop, maybe it's prudent to wait for a bounce... than again, some bounce came on Tuesday but disappeared by the close. Bounce being sold - this tells you that there are a lot of sellers.
Gold for sale on eBay was just another tell-tale that the top was near. One can get bullion from dealers, it's available. The new supply is from GLD Trust - 170 tons before the April 12th break.
I'm sure that some folks (maybe most) bought GLD with the intent to protect their wealth. The problem is - GLD has become a speculative asset, which is not widely understood. Further, the price of gold itself has become speculative because GLD is pegged to bullion.
2012 In Review: How Good Was S&P 500 Performance? Who Got It Right? [View article]
James - great write-up and analysis of how the market continues to confound the "conventional wisdom" of supposed market masters. Our PAR Model report had a very strong year - it correctly turned positive in its S&P 500 short-term expected forecast in June and has been "flashing green" ever since - including a 16% 6-month forecast to start 2013. The full performance report for the year can be seen here: parmodel.com/reports/P...
A Rare Buying Opportunity: S&P 500 Return Forecast Is Up To 19.2% [View article]
Snoopy1: If you are looking for a fund performance (with fund administrator records, audited, etc.) - we don't have it. We are a research firm providing, well, research. Though many people suggested/asked why we don't manage funds, so we are starting to work on this.
ECRI Weekly Update: More Recession Flag Waving [View article]
Doug, great analysis. Perhaps missing a definitive conclusion.
It's pretty obvious from the analysis that ECRI called a recession that didn't happen. Which would explain why they switched to focusing on the four indicators instead of the WLI - those are indicators by which a recession is identified. So they can say: "You know, it was really kind of like a recession, by the official metric of 3 out of 4 indicators declining... etc, etc." And of course, they had to use a measure of consumption/sales that did decline...
A Rare Buying Opportunity: S&P 500 Return Forecast Is Up To 19.2% [View article]
The result we show from 2007 are actually out-of-sample (though most of that period, except 2012, is still "backtesting", not real-time testing). We don't show in-sample fit (it's actually much higher than OoS but not really relevant, and because we use a rolling sample window, it would even be impossible to shown on one chart).
Still, you are right, in any backtesting, we need to avoid a chance of data mining ("curve fitting"). For example, we use the original data series for economic data that gets revised. We also have to be careful to use proper lags for data that's not available at month-ends.
Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
Oil Supply Shock Will Drive Prices Down [View article]
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
So my conclusion is that gold/GLD entered a serious downtrend - assuming an orderly market. If the selling of bullion proves too much, it's possible that GLD is decoupled from gold, as some folks commented here.
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
So my conclusion is that gold/GLD entered a serious downtrend - assuming an orderly market. If the selling of bullion proves too much, it's possible that GLD is decoupled from gold, as some folks commented here.
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
Also, sorry for some delay - the article was written on the weakend, but takes SA some time to publish. With Monday's 9% drop, maybe it's prudent to wait for a bounce... than again, some bounce came on Tuesday but disappeared by the close. Bounce being sold - this tells you that there are a lot of sellers.
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
The Gold Emperor Has No Clothes [View article]
2012 In Review: How Good Was S&P 500 Performance? Who Got It Right? [View article]
Time To Count The Beans - 2012 Performance [View instapost]
A Rare Buying Opportunity: S&P 500 Return Forecast Is Up To 19.2% [View article]
ECRI Weekly Update: More Recession Flag Waving [View article]
It's pretty obvious from the analysis that ECRI called a recession that didn't happen. Which would explain why they switched to focusing on the four indicators instead of the WLI - those are indicators by which a recession is identified. So they can say:
"You know, it was really kind of like a recession, by the official metric of 3 out of 4 indicators declining... etc, etc." And of course, they had to use a measure of consumption/sales that did decline...
It will be interesting to watch their next video.
A Rare Buying Opportunity: S&P 500 Return Forecast Is Up To 19.2% [View article]
Still, you are right, in any backtesting, we need to avoid a chance of data mining ("curve fitting"). For example, we use the original data series for economic data that gets revised. We also have to be careful to use proper lags for data that's not available at month-ends.