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  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    Thanks Aaron. Selling a put is a great way to generate income on a stock while you wait for the right price...excellent strategy!
    May 9, 2012. 08:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    Very well said...
    May 8, 2012. 11:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    In a nutshell, we think that a correction will be driven by:

    1. European Crisis
    2. Slowdown in China
    3. High Debt Levels in U.S.
    4. Stagnant U.S. Employment
    5. Continued Weakness in Housing

    There is more than enough headwinds out there to spark a correction...the question is more when not if...
    May 8, 2012. 05:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    Not a good analogy based on how much money printing is going on at the Fed...our dollar may be worth less than 90 cents by the end of the year...
    May 8, 2012. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    Thank you, dsorchestra90. You seem to be the only one that fully read the article. There are two key things that readers are ignoring:

    1. We own Apple stock and like the company and the fundamentals.
    2. We think the stock is currently a "buy" based purely on fundamentals.

    Unfortunately, as we pointed out in the article (and as you have pointed out in your comments), stock prices tend to diverge materially from fundamentals during a market downturn...
    May 8, 2012. 04:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    Agreed, thompr...but we think that the market correction that we speak of could happen well before then. And you have to appreciate the fact that stock prices often significantly diverge from fundamentals during a market correction...
    May 8, 2012. 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    The top part of our target range is $515...which is only a 9% decline from current levels...
    May 8, 2012. 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Will Apple Shares Go In A Major Market Correction? [View article]
    To be fair, $450 is the low end of our "buy zone"...and AAPL was at this level as recently as about 3 months ago (1/25/12)...
    May 8, 2012. 04:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Tailwinds For mREITs [View article]
    Agreed, mreits4ever...we just wrote a 3-part series about AGNC specifically...

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 7, 2012. 03:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks, jonk. To be fair, relative trading valuations are also important to consider. Since inception, AGNC's price-to-book value has averaged 1.17x (vs. the current multiple of 1.09x)...
    May 7, 2012. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks jonk...you make some really good points. At the end of the day, it all comes down to whether or not the manager is good at managing changes in CPRs (planned or unplanned)...all else being equal. Unfortunately, all else is never equal...
    May 7, 2012. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 1) [View article]
    Ha! Thanks, bill...
    May 7, 2012. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Hi TwistTie - I think the opportunity to reinvest will likely always be there...however, it may be unfavorable to do so if prices go up too much or if spreads are too thin. For the mREIT investor, that means less income coming in the door since leverage will likely come down substantially....
    May 7, 2012. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, Changi.
    May 7, 2012. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why American Capital Agency Should Be A Core Holding In Your Retirement Portfolio (Part 2) [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, samithree. Part 3 discusses some possible future scenarios and the impact they would have on a mortgage portfolio.

    Also, we wrote an article recently titled "When Should You Sell Your Mortgage REITs" (see link below).

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    In a nutshell, when short term interest rates start to creep up without a corresponding rise in long-term rates (i.e., if the yield curve flattens meaningfully)...that will probably be the time to reevaluate your mREIT investments.
    May 7, 2012. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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