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  • Vringo up 14.6% after Teva verdict [View news story]
    The High Court can be perplexing in their decisions to accept cases. We've learned in the past, especially in patent cases, the standard for review is critically high. In Soverain v. New Egg the declaration of Obviousness by the COA was the most amazing over reach of recent days. Why then did the Supreme Court deny this request? Simply put Soverain argued the wrong points. Teva on the other hand did the opposite.

    The Vringo case is all about the Appellate substituting for the Fact Finder. SCOTUS would be contravening itself to turn a "blind eye" to the first case filed asking for the same relief.
    Jan 21, 2015. 01:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Ditch Vringo On This Pop [View article]
    Aside from the 3 inch Chart I'm rather surprised that SA Editors allowed this article to pass, considering the limited content presented.

    Contrary to your statement, the Federal Appellate Majority did not set aside the lower court ruling because of Alice v. CLS Bank and the patentability of abstract software patents. Rather the Federal Circuit decided that their "common sense" would bridge the gap between evidence not presented at trial and in contravention of the district court and the juries findings.

    Vringo subsequently requested an En Banc poll among the larger appellate court and was denied.

    Reasons for this denial IMO rests firmly with the Court of Appeals desire to retain the power of "de novo rule". Though ruling de novo for obviousness was not expressly stated in the 3 judge mini-appellate ruling it was none the less understood to have taken place.

    The TEVA ruling yesterday by the Supreme Court squarely placed the District Court Judge as the "fact finder" in Patent cases. This is not a "rule change" but rather the closing of a legal loop hole that the Court Of Appeals has viciously exploited (ie: Soverain v. New Egg). Vringo will use this new decision in its request to have the Supreme Court hear its appeal.

    While I agree Vringo is a highly speculative investment based solely on being successful with Federal lawsuits, it still nonetheless represents a high return possibility.

    I've analogized this to a call option. If the Supreme Court decides to hear the case, the likelyhood of overturning this decision is probably on the order of 90%. Should Vringo win the case by reversing this appellate the value of the Google judgement and Royalty would be added immediately to the stock price. How much is estimated at $10-12 per share.

    Is risking a .60 investment to win a $10-12 share price a smart investment? Or as you put it "ditching" Vringo for .10 a wiser move? That's a question best left to investors.
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patent stocks rally after Supreme Court's Teva ruling [View news story]
    Case in point, few realized that Google filed an Amici Brief in support of Drug maker Sandoz. The relevance now becomes very apparent as to Vringo's upcoming Supreme Court Appeal.
    Jan 20, 2015. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo up 14.6% after Teva verdict [View news story]
    The Supreme Court just eliminated a key power the US Court of Appeals has been frequently using in such cases as Vringo (VRNG), VirnetX, and many others. The ability to cast aside substantial evidence findings over the District Courts rule is effectively over.

    Vringo which has been priced akin to a call option (.60 on a 55 million market cap) chances of Supreme Court review just increased by 90%. With an expected win of over $1 billion, many investors are finding this .60 cent bet worthy of a big win ($10-12 share price estimates) on SCOTUS overturning the same.

    This win cascades with ramifications to multiple PAE's (Patent Assertion Entities) with litigation pending and in force.
    Jan 20, 2015. 12:34 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Downgraded To Reduce By Global Hunter And Commentary [View article]
    Cost to maintain a single cold stack rig is only $2000 a day or $712,000 annually. Not $4 million a year.
    Jan 12, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo; Great IP, Poor Management [View instapost]
    There is large amounts of capital left here, and it's not to late to take a more conservative approach to managing cash.

    This just cannot happen with CEO Perlman running the show. His value as a CEO is just not there.
    Jan 11, 2015. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Can The Company Fund Itself In 2015? [View article]
    Your math is off. 10 rigs x $1500 a day (cold stack)= $15000 x 365 days = $5,475,000
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Offshore: Can The Company Fund Itself In 2015? [View article]
    2019 is a long way off and not having to make this payment adds a major benefit to Hercules. The author fails to disclose that Hercules 201, a ready stacked rig, just received permit authority to begin drilling of the coast of Louisiana.

    Its common knowledge that Hercules is actively hiring for the pending contract in the North Sea, and contrary to the authors opinion the 10 cold stacked rigs have a marginal cost of $1500 a day per rig. With an annual cost of $5 million to keep these rigs in that state, indeed it is a far cry from breaking the companies back.

    The author needs to understand that most contracts in the GOM tend to be short term leases. Hero understands the dynamics of this market better than any other operator. Most of the competitive new builds on the drawing board probably wont get financed in this environment. Typically the builds are done in South Korea and destined for international areas. The GOM is safe easily for the next 2 years.

    Crude is destined for an upward correction. The Saudis are already feeling the pain, by this latest article of a Royal Prince having a hard time accepting the pain of lower oil finances.

    PEMEX is the one to watch as they have had their eye on acquiring a driller much like Hero. Like HERO most of their drilling is in 100 ft of water or less. When the Saudi fold, and they will, watch for Hercules to come out on top.
    Jan 4, 2015. 10:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turnaround potential? 2014's worst performers in the Russell 2000 [View news story]
    Signs of recovery for the Gulf of Mexico Driller Hercules HERO. Just last Friday word of a new permit approved. Excellent news as Hercules 201 had been ready stacked and appears to now be contracted

    Hercules has zero debt coming due for at least 2 more years, and has more than $200 million cash. Riyadh (Saudi) is already showing signs of crumbling resolve as the Saudi Royal Sovereign Fund is hammered due to the shortfalls of oil pricing.
    Jan 4, 2015. 09:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo; Great IP, Poor Management [View instapost]
    We approached Vringo management with our concerns as outlined in the blog. Managements position as reflected in the latest disclosures is to maintain a high expense managerial infrastructure, regardless of the strategies employed by the defendants in the various lawsuits.

    Management is steering this ship with no caution to finances and feels compensation among other issues is not up for discussion, regardless of the income statement.

    This self induced risk limits the opportunity in a way we find unacceptable.
    Dec 29, 2014. 11:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Should Spin Off The Credit Segment [View article]
    My original forecast was $15 per share, however I think with the next quarter we could see further cuts in the share price. The company cannot compete with BestBuy and the like. The marketshare has always been those who have poor credit, there is no time or capital for Conns to re-invent itself.

    Bottom line here is Bankruptcy. It's just a matter of when.
    Dec 29, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Has Been Deemed A Perfect Short [View article]
    This is not Best Buy. This is a subprime lender of durable goods, mattresses and TV's. What made this company generate strong growth was lending to those no one else would lend to. If you were a warm body Conns would loan you $2500. That model comprises most of the $700+ million dollar portfolio. These people are paycheck to paycheck survivalists and their economies are suffering. Conns problems collecting from their customer base has been well documented over the last 2 years. This is not a surprise, rather a deep widening problem that can't be repaired. The CEO tried this by attempting 3rd party collection of bad debt, only realizing it did not work. The credit re-aging process here is unclear and the lack of guidance speaks volumes that the rabbit hole can be far deeper than anyone knows. One thing is certain, the CFO must know and his departure in the middle of financial litigation speaks volumes. We all know Conns keeps very little cash on hand. With Moody's casting a negative rating on Conns how long will it be before Conns vendors puts the company on no credit terms? Not long IMO.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Investors Do Not Need To Worry [View article]
    @ Money Green

    Conns spends significant amounts of money on Radio, TV and Print advertising, as mentioned on the Conf call.

    This is a material expense and absolutely critical to Conns success or failure. The vendors use the rating agencies to determine what terms can be offered. A negative rating can eliminate 30 day terms and force Conns to pay "up front" for its advertising.

    Conns maintains as little as $2 million dollars of cash on hand, being forced to pay up front will cause the company to require more working capital- ie. debt.

    Net here is a negative outlook has severe ramifications, and cannot be taken lightly to an ongoing concern that keeps very little cash on hand to fund its operations.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Investors Do Not Need To Worry [View article]
    Moody's rates their bonds and only offers a negative outlook, no stock price targets. Research Moody's, Standard & Poors, and Fitch.
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conn's Investors Do Not Need To Worry [View article]
    Masking the real problems with the credit portfolio is the driver for the decline in confidence. This has been building for the last two years with chronic excuses blaming collectors, the phone system, 3rd party collections, and arguably the CFO. In fact the only excuse I didn't hear was the dog eating the data base storage. Still with all this lack of expertise the CEO decides on staff collections can do it better. Moody's Ratings isn't buying that and neither am I.
    Dec 16, 2014. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment