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Pater Tenebrarum

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  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    Yes, the latest trick, 'collateral transformation' - simply incredible.
    Sep 12 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    With the benefit of a little bit of hindsight...I'd like to experience more such 'last legs'.
    However, as I noted in one of my first comments on this article: the sentiment and positioning data did not support lower prices in the short term. Now that prices have risen, the situation is a bit trickier, as speculators have thrown a lot of money into gold over the past two weeks and there are numerous potential pitfalls dead ahead.
    Sep 4 07:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Gold Miners To Avoid Right Now [View article]
    Harmony trades 60% below its NAV - the CFO and the CEO just bought a huge bunch of shares in the open market (CEO bought 14,400 shares, CFO bought 74,000 shares). But what do they know, right?
    And the decline in these stocks has absolutely nothing to do with the law suit.
    Sep 4 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And The Euro [View article]
    Just wanted to point out that this article has actually been written by Keith Weiner, a frequent guest author on acting man. This was originally published in his Gold Basis newsletter last weekend and I liked it so much that I asked him if we could reprint it. As to the dire situation of euro area banks, there can be no doubt many of them are in big trouble, especially in Spain (and the interdependence of the banks on the continent means that this endangers all the others as well)
    Aug 31 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    I'm planning to do that soon. I actually write about Greece fairly regularly, but recent developments in Ireland and Portugal also deserve some attention, so I'm going to catch up with that.
    Aug 31 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    I think it is first and foremost a sign that there is now a shortage of high quality collateral. Gold is the logical choice as a replacement, since it is the only financial asset that does not rely on anyone's 'promise to pay'.
    Aug 31 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    You are quite right imo - they are running out of collateral to pledge and as a reaction the amount of ELA financing from the Bank of Spain has begun to grow in tandem with deposit flight. The latter is indeed made worse by the constant hail of downgrades.
    Aug 30 01:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vale: Don't Miss This Buy Opportunity [View article]
    Iron ore prices are crashing, but they are still historically high. So there is potentially quite a bit of scope for them to lower. Current prices and the high prices of the recent past are most definitely not the 'norm'.
    Consider that although China's steel industry has become unprofitable at current steel prices, it has not even begun to cut back production yet. Iron ore prices are however indicating that this will likely happen. The danger for bulls is that they could be underestimating the stickiness of the down cycle. Note that I have no dog in this hunt, but I recently took a look at historical iron ore price charts out of curiosity.
    Aug 30 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    Imports of gold into China via Hong Kong have soared about tenfold this year compared to last year if memory serves. So someone clearly is buying a lot of gold in China.
    I don't think the Chinese authorities would tell anyone if they were buying gold for the official sector. Rather, they will do what they did last time around: they'll quietly buy, and one day just let us know that their gold reserves have increased by X amount. Last time they increased from 650 to 1050 tons (approx.) 'overnight'. Wouldn't you know, a state-owned entity other than the central bank had bought all that gold (and was therefore not obliged to keep the IMF in the loop) and simply 'transferred' it.
    Aug 21 05:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    I agree with you that 'QE3' is highly unlikely at the September FOMC meeting - unless the stock market falls completely out of bed until then of course - but I would point out that gold was quite capable of rallying for many years without any 'QE'. Real interest rates remain negative, and the yield curve has begun to steepen lately, indicating rising inflation expectations. That may be enough to propel gold higher in the short term. In fact, it added $20 in today's trading.
    Aug 21 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Love Trade Cools As Central Banks' Gold Demand Heats Up [View article]
    It got a little 'hotter' today.
    Aug 21 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fins Prepare To Slip Away, Merkel Fantasizes About Political Union [View article]
    I have discussed this at the time on http://bit.ly/rkEW8i. It has become a sort of running gag ever since.
    Aug 21 05:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Investors: Beware Of Payments In Gold [View article]
    As a general remark on the dividend payers: South African gold stocks have a long tradition of paying sizable dividends when the times are good. HMY has also declared a 50 cents (SA cents) final dividend today. The biggest surprise is probably DRD, a company that was at death's door more than once. Its business has been restructured completely, and it is now the biggest surface treatment company in the world, retreating the old sand dumps of the mined out Witwatersrand gold mines. This business model has evidently worked well, as it has been paying a dividend ever since it was adopted.
    Aug 16 05:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    For more on the sentiment and technical situation, including charts:
    http://bit.ly/PrXmft
    Aug 16 03:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    Actually, in euro terms gold is only a smidgen away from breaking out to a new all time high - and as experienced gold traders should know by now, the euro gold price has tended to lead the dollar gold price for the past five years.
    Meanwhile, net speculative long positions in gold futures are at their lowest since 2008 and gold sentiment is also at its lowest since 2008. The Hulbert Gold Investment Newsletter index has spent most of 2012 in negative territory (investment advisors on the whole recommended a net short position in gold for most of this year). Bull markets don't end when everybody turns bearish after a few months of consolidation.
    Aug 16 03:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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