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Pater Tenebrarum

 
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  • It's Okay To Fight Fed Intentions, Just Not Fed Actions [View article]
    The BoJ is definitely NOT 'easing aggressively' - it is only SAYING so (a policy of 'announcements', with the true buying of assets falling far short of the announced targets) in order to keep overeager politicians off its back. Year-on-year true money supply growth in Japan has recently fallen back to 2.8%, one of the lowest such monetary inflation rates in the world. Quarterly true money supply growth stood at minus 8.7% annualized as of August, i.e., the money supply of Japan actually shrank in the last quarter. US money supply growth (broad money TMS-2) has been between 10%-15.8% annualized for 45 months running.
    Oct 2, 2012. 04:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 5 Is Already Outselling Nokia's Lumia Windows Phones [View article]
    It looks like there are other reasons than the maps problem for customer dissatisfaction with Apple as well. Here is a recent account from a life-long user and fan of Apple products (iow, the charge that he 'doesn't even use it' can not be brought to bear in this case) -he notes that these products are 'no longer easy to use' and recounts his 'yellow goo' experience with the i-phone (the 'other' stuff that sometimes eats up all its storage):
    http://bit.ly/OBzevJ
    Oct 2, 2012. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iPhone 5 Is Already Outselling Nokia's Lumia Windows Phones [View article]
    Apple is famous for not shying away from cannibalizing its own products. It is one of the company's widely acknowledged strengths. But it is a negative for Nokia?
    Sep 26, 2012. 03:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Imminent Liquidity Crunch And Share Price Collapse [View article]
    The problem from the point of view of traders who tried short AMZN on fundamental overvaluation concerns was not so much the question whether or not it is overvalued (it certainly appears to be). The problem has been that it is a stock everybody loves to hate, even while it climbs ever higher. It is a classical contrarian warning sign when every time you stumble on articles on a stock in a strong uptrend 95% of all comments are negative, as are most of the articles themselves.
    Just ask yourself this question: when was the last time anyone recommended to buy AMZN? There is no shortage of bullish exhortations on many other stocks. I honestly cannot even remember when I last read something positive on AMZN as a stock. And yet, here we are...on a split adjusted basis it recently hit nearly $1,600. Mind, I'm not saying it could not be an excellent short in the future - it may well have peaked a few days ago for all I know. Just making a comment on a principle. 
    Sep 26, 2012. 02:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: Back In The Headlines [View article]
    I definitely agree he has valid concerns.
    Sep 25, 2012. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: Back In The Headlines [View article]
    Definitely a possibility worth considering - I have in fact pondered this already in past articles. The problem is only that after a default, the Greek government will for a time lose all access to external funding. It would likely soon feel the urge to have control over its own printing press again. Also, the ECB can, if so ordered (this would be a political decision), cut off emergency liquidity support to the Greek banking system - which would effectively force Greece out of the euro. I think they would do this if Greece were to decide to default unilaterally.
    However, I also believe that the eurocracy remains eager to keep Greece in the euro area, precisely because the whole project would come under question once a member state leaves. So the most likely outcome will be a new 'haircut' agreement in which the official lenders forgo a large portion of their claims.
    Sep 25, 2012. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Signs Apple Is Turning: A Rebuttal [View article]
    I remember someone said the same to me in March of 2000 about the Nasdaq index. Almost the exact same words actually: 'the doomsayers all claimed it would go down, but it hasn't happened'. As it turned out, just because something hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean it never will. Please mind, I'm not commenting on Apple specifically, but on the thinking behind the sentence 'they said it would go down and it hasn't happened', several variations of which can be found in the comments section on every post on Apple. It is a comment on the past that has no bearing whatsoever on the future.
    Sep 25, 2012. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Excessive Bullishness? [View article]
    How about: the options speculations index sits at the third highest reading in all of history, Rydex bull-bear ratio at its most optimistic level EVER, dollar weighted speculator net long positions in stock index futures close to a record high, the three 'risk appetite' indices combined at an all time high, large trader net call purchases at an all time high, small option trader net call exposure the highest since March 2011, NAAIM survey at over 81% bulls, Consensus Inc. and market Vane bullish consensus above 70% bulls (historically in the upper 5% of all readings), mutual fund cash-to-assets ratio within 40 basis points of an all time low (a full percentage point below the March 2000 reading), a 40 percentage point spread between 'smart money' and 'dumb money' confidence...I could go on, but you get the drift. You just happened to pick out three indicators that confirm your bias, but I can pick out 20 that would confirm that bullishness is indeed excessive and thereby confirm a bearish bias - almost needless to say, all the indicators I have listed above (except where indicated otherwise) are showing higher bullish sentiment than at the market's peak in 2007.
    Sep 25, 2012. 02:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    Well, so much for 'there will be no QE3'. QE3 is here, and gold is at $1765 as I write this - a gain of more than 10% since this article was published.
    To be sure, I'm quite surprised the Fed did indeed opt for open ended QE3 at this time. It seems quite a gamble in view of already high stock and commodity prices - after all, what will they do for an encore should stocks fall and economic activity decline?
    But it is what it is, and it is obviously interpreted as a bullish event by the gold market.
    Sep 13, 2012. 03:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    Yes, the latest trick, 'collateral transformation' - simply incredible.
    Sep 12, 2012. 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Are On Their Last Legs ... For A While [View article]
    With the benefit of a little bit of hindsight...I'd like to experience more such 'last legs'.
    However, as I noted in one of my first comments on this article: the sentiment and positioning data did not support lower prices in the short term. Now that prices have risen, the situation is a bit trickier, as speculators have thrown a lot of money into gold over the past two weeks and there are numerous potential pitfalls dead ahead.
    Sep 4, 2012. 07:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Gold Miners To Avoid Right Now [View article]
    Harmony trades 60% below its NAV - the CFO and the CEO just bought a huge bunch of shares in the open market (CEO bought 14,400 shares, CFO bought 74,000 shares). But what do they know, right?
    And the decline in these stocks has absolutely nothing to do with the law suit.
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And The Euro [View article]
    Just wanted to point out that this article has actually been written by Keith Weiner, a frequent guest author on acting man. This was originally published in his Gold Basis newsletter last weekend and I liked it so much that I asked him if we could reprint it. As to the dire situation of euro area banks, there can be no doubt many of them are in big trouble, especially in Spain (and the interdependence of the banks on the continent means that this endangers all the others as well)
    Aug 31, 2012. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    I'm planning to do that soon. I actually write about Greece fairly regularly, but recent developments in Ireland and Portugal also deserve some attention, so I'm going to catch up with that.
    Aug 31, 2012. 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spain: Is The Bug About To Hit The Windshield? [View article]
    I think it is first and foremost a sign that there is now a shortage of high quality collateral. Gold is the logical choice as a replacement, since it is the only financial asset that does not rely on anyone's 'promise to pay'.
    Aug 31, 2012. 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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