Patrick Garot

The Myth of Abercrombie & Fitch

Thanks for this! I did a couple of ANF analyses on SA. Most timed appropriately, but I cannot believe ANF has hooked back up to the $30's again. Yours was a great indictment, and more thorough on the fashion side than anything I could dream of attempting. I'll be following you, and thanks again!

Gatorade Should Sue Itself

Excellent article, thanks for it!

13 Safe Stocks in a Return to the 1970s

Author's final word:

When I penned this column, most of these stocks were at lower levels. I still like the set-ups around most of them. For TGT (was at $27, now at $34), I would sell all of my position. For AAPL (was at $90, dipped to $83-$85, now at $115), I would sell most (80%) of the position.

Still like PBR and POT and think that there's some room to run in the next 2-3 months for these.

Kroger (KR) is dead money, but reasonably safe at today's $20. Disney (DIS) and Nike (NKE) briefly hit my target prices, and I would sell most of those positions today, but at least half.

Best -- pg

Five Predictions for This Market

Author's Final Word:

When I wrote this, GE was at $6.50. It closed today (April 7, 2009) at $10.65. I suggest that whoever might have followed this advice sell most of their GE and book their 63% gains right now.

Likewise, Disney, Costco, Intel, Nike, and UPS were near lows.
DIS at $16.50, COST at $40, INTC at $12.75, NKE at $42.55 and UPS at $40.65.
They are now DIS at $19.12, COST $46.39, INTC at $15.50, NKE at $50, and UPS at $51.50.
I would harvest half the gains in DIS, COST, and INTC. NKE I would sell about a third of the position. UPS I would sell all.
Best -- pg

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

Author's Final Word:

When I wrote this, USB was at $9. It closed today (April 7, 2009) at $14.42. I suggest that whoever may have followed this advice sell most of their USB and book their 69% gains right now.

When I wrote this, NTRS was at $48. It went up from there to the mid-60s, and closed today (April 7, 2009) at $57. I suggest that whoever might have followed this advice sell at least half of their NTRS and book their 19% (or greater) gains right now.

General Growth Properties: A Speculative Play with Favorable Risk / Reward

Author's Final Word: When I wrote this, GGP was at 68 cents.
It closed today (April 7, 2009) at $1.05.
I suggest that whoever might have followed this advice sell most of their GGP and book their 69% gains right now.

China: Why It Can't Be a Global Leader

PS: sorry, i hate long author posts too. still, I'd like to see some comments on the trade-as-a-scam idea?

China: Why It Can't Be a Global Leader

Hi, all --

Great comments, thanks! A few culpas first: sorry about the distorted chart, don't know why that didn't work; also, my title was "Why China Can't Lead (today)", not "China: why it can't be a global leader" (this header wasn't mine but SA's).

Look, I own both the FXI and EEM. China, India et al are great 25 year plays; huge markets, expanding, etc. My question was, who's the leadership today? And despite what I see on SA, often downbeat on USA prospects, my answer still comes up with the US as the lever to move the world economy forward.

2 cool comments -- from dybyx and User3837... -- had me consider if "leadership" was conceptually valid anymore, if any one nation's "leadership" can drive the world forward anymore, and whether that "drive" was even necessary.

I have to conclude yes, leadership as a mantle is valid. In any setting there is one leader or at least a moderator; this is millennia of human socialization talking, not me. And yes, the "drive" of leadership is still necessary, since drive yields benefits that accrue to the whole world. Which we can short-hand "innovation".

Innovation takes curiosity, faith, creativity, spirit. It flourishes under rule of law, and maybe even classic liberalism (freedom to say, do and explore), and further possibly capitalism.

And just for these plus the other reasons I cited, China is not ready to assume a leadership role.

I've worked with China weekly, if not daily, for the past three years. The export-oriented factories that I've dealt with are at 50% utilization now (rather than 100%+ twelve months ago), so a lot of migrants now have to move back to the interior, and subsistence lives.

China is going to be an exciting place, we can all agree. But China still needs to get itself right, before leading.

One example of this: many SA posters, and US media and politicos, like to mention the USA's "crumbling infrastructure". If the US's infra is crumbling, most of the EEM nations' infra is "crumbled" or more often just non-existent.

Not to mention politics, the press, the environment, the fact that 40% of the population works in agriculture. The list goes on.

The headline was not mine, and it's wrong. China is already a world leader: hey, it made everything that I'm using to write this.

Well, it made everything except my mind, and my thoughts, that is. Think I'd feel comfortable writing this post, and thinking these thoughts, if I were a PRC citizen?

Best to all -- pg

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

ah, djordan. As my clients own commercial RE, residences, ag land and businesses in CA, it'd have been less than smart to stash cash at WFC, which has the same exposure to California. (Further I'm retained; I don't charge fees on AUM). I hope this answers your comment, to your satisfaction......... ..........

Careless in the Cloud: Google Accidentally Shares Some Docs

In 1990 my best friend at Andersen Consulting (Accenture) was sent to Florida to create cable Video-On-Demand. It took billions of investment and until roughly 3 years ago for VOD to actually start changing that game.

My point is while "The Cloud" is the future, it will take years - and billions - for it to deliver on its promise. Consider that Google's "oops" above about data security is even before hackers have begun to test its Cloud.

In this context, MSFT looks cheap right now.

McDonald's: Still the Big Mac

Good comment if true, User 190816. I think mgmt did have some platitudes on coffee, but as to data points, they've been scarce.
MCD still a solid stock at current valuations. Forex will hurt them this coming quarter, but I look for huge growth where it counts -- like +5% or more volumes.

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

The chart on USB has a nit. The "Securities Gain/Loss" should not be included in my detail on USB's non-interest income.
Therefore, the "Other" line of the detail Non-Int Income should show $1,185 in 2008, $1,356 in 2007. (While this does not change the article's underlying premise...) My apologies for the error.

Best regards -- pg

Whole Foods Market: Still a Premium Stock?

WFMI was a great momentum play 3 to 4 years ago. The only momentum at current price (at 15X forward EPS) may be from a short-covering rally. Shorts are 13.5% of total float (per Yahoo Finance). Think the shorts have had their best days on WFMI, and the only shorts left are just being lazy now. So a limited $2-$3 upside is possible. That said, as your article points out, not a lot of reasons to own this thing.

Five Predictions for This Market

Hey, User 370791 --

Come on, you completely misquoted me! I don't mind your interpretations of what I said... but don't put them in "quote-marks" as if I said them.

FYI, I liked Bill Clinton. Voted for him both times. Thought the guy was the smartest guy in the room (before that phrase was popular), and a guy that I would like to know. Not right-wing at all. As a kid, voted for myself in Bush I's election vs. Dukakis (and persuaded several others to vote for me, check the Library of Congress).

Actually I was raised, and always felt I voted ,as a Daley (Chicago) Dem.
That is, a pragmatist. In favor of what works. (or what I thought would work.)

I am sorry my words made this article devolve into a political hate-bash session. I'm all in favor of Obama-- provided he does what makes the whole system work overall. And by "system", I mean the betterment of ALL our citizens first, and then the world.

I would like to pass on to my kids a United States of America to which they can bring their own passions and talents, and prosper.

(And if you have a problem with anyone even saying "United States of America" in a positive sense, then there's a nice walk-up on the Rive Gauche for you -- you'd like it there, I lived that life, too.)

I do not ascribe to an idea that our country is generally wrong, historically inviolate, or otherwise. And if you do, anyone: screw you. Become a student and learn what other "empires" (including Aztec, Sioux, other "native" cultures), with their area's or the known world's most fearsome militaries became, and how they imposed true iron-fisted Will.

Our country is responsible for 80% plus of the inventions that have most benefited all humankind. We have not asked much for it -- no supplicants, just a pittance of profits -- as we have cured diseases, linked families to families, provided a beacon against tyranny. Our benefits list is endless.

(I had a debate with a friend about this. She said she thought that Kenya was more "beautiful" and "pure", since the people there were not "into" capitalism. While living there over 8 months, she contracted a resilient staph infection. I noted, nicely, that they were researchers at Gilead who had spent many hours away from their wives and kids to develop, test and distribute the very pill that cured her. And wasn't that time important to them, and didn't they deserve an extra nice vacation from it? She finally allowed, "well, yes, ummm, yes.")

I am not George Bush first or second. I am not Ronald Reagan, nor am I Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter or Ford or Lincoln.

I am me, and the closest parallel I offer as to who that is is Patrick Henry. If ever there was a real "liberal", in the true sense, it is Patrick Henry.

So stand up, this Patrick says. Rabble rouse! Assert your God-given rights (yes, "God" is in Jefferson's preamble) to have this dialogue.

Above all, everyone, thank you all for the healthy dialogue.

All the best -- pg

PS: If you look at my "optimistic" post of Feb 24, 2009 "13 Safe Stocks", or my "Paper is Dead"/Santelli Tea Party post, you'll see that I assert that I believe it doesn't matter, as you suggest, what any administration does, it's all about the (American) entrepreneur, who will find a way to succeed regardless. Think we agree on this, kid.

On Mar 06 12:14 AM User 370791 wrote:

> "Obama will constrain American ingenuity, with punitive taxes on
> successful entrepreneurs."
>
> What a load of garbage. Did Gates and Buffet make all their money
> under Bush II? How about Steve Jobs?
>
> Like it or not we cannot have a nation of two classes. Those two
> classes being "rich" and "think they're middle class but really working
> poor." I'm sorry but if someone is going to just "give it all up"
> because of a lousy 3% extra on taxes after the first quarter million
> they are heartily invited to leave the country and not come back.
>
>
> Try Sweeden or Great Britain or France. Maybe Germany or Italy is
> to your liking. Oh, wait, they all have much higher taxes than us.
> And yet, they all have rich people too. How is that possible.
>
>
> I know, those guys only think they are rich. The banks show them
> phony statements every once in a while to humor them.
>
> Final word to the author:
>
> Give it up, guy. McCain lost, Palin is back to her moose hunting.
> The adults are in charge now and, if you don't mind, they are trying
> to correct the market failures that got us to this point.
>
>
>

Five Predictions for This Market

Thanks to all (even those who disagree), and to prudentinvestor especially.
Actually, prudent, I think we agree that:

> "If [the market] does shoot up, it will only be to fall again.
> The current general levels (+/- 25%) are consistent
> with pre-bubbles history and with rational metrics and realistic
> economic expectations. The notion that we shall shoot back to bubble
> levels soon and fast is doubtful.

Absolutely, just expecting a +30% bear market rally in my targets. I'd have liked the market to fall further to cheapen up my list. I'll be on the sidelines until prices are where I want them.

Still, as Karen Finerman is saying as I write this, "there is just so much mis-information in the market right now, that there are stocks that are fabulously mispriced."

PS: I'm not a Dem nor a Rep, caren, russ and curmudgeon. Sorry that my post somehow turned this conversation into a political brawl; it was really not my intention.
Best regards -- pg