Patrick Garot

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

Author's Final Word:

When I wrote this, USB was at $9. It closed today (April 7, 2009) at $14.42. I suggest that whoever may have followed this advice sell most of their USB and book their 69% gains right now.

When I wrote this, NTRS was at $48. It went up from there to the mid-60s, and closed today (April 7, 2009) at $57. I suggest that whoever might have followed this advice sell at least half of their NTRS and book their 19% (or greater) gains right now.

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

ah, djordan. As my clients own commercial RE, residences, ag land and businesses in CA, it'd have been less than smart to stash cash at WFC, which has the same exposure to California. (Further I'm retained; I don't charge fees on AUM). I hope this answers your comment, to your satisfaction......... ..........

Repaying TARP: Life for USB and NTRS?

The chart on USB has a nit. The "Securities Gain/Loss" should not be included in my detail on USB's non-interest income.
Therefore, the "Other" line of the detail Non-Int Income should show $1,185 in 2008, $1,356 in 2007. (While this does not change the article's underlying premise...) My apologies for the error.

Best regards -- pg

Wall Street's New Math

"Most who have invested long enough will realize that their gut is usually wrong."

I know the above is just an aside in a well-written article, but I'd like to offer a counterperspective. Your gut just needs to be supported by fundamental analysis, a back-to-the-basics approach.

I rarely have found my gut wrong. I think a lot of us go wrong when we lose discipline and follow (not our gut but) our head, which gets caught spinning around trend, momentum, other's counsel, etc. Particularly pernicious is our head's being informed by greed, as in watching a stock that has gone up 300%, and you can't believe you missed those "easy profits", so you finally board the train.

Other than that, thanks for the article.

Another Big Bank Failure: More Likely Than Not to Occur

It is great to read these older posts by Reggie. I've gone back over a year on SA, and -- if one can put himself back in the mindset of Dec 2007, March 2008, June 2008 -- Reggie must have seemed to more than a few that he was a Cassandra. He was proved right.

That said, I'd love to hear some BULL predictions from Reggie. Any?