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Patrick Graham

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  • COPEL Has Enjoyed A Good Run, But Brazilian Utilities Remain Tricky [View article]
    Excellent article Mr. Simpson, and I have been following Copel closely the last year and a half. The DCF estimate of fair value is puzzling, however, could you shed more light on how you arrived at this? My conservative calculations value Copel at $18-22/share, and that is including stagnant revenue growth over the next 5 years with only moderate price increases and inflation-based increases in costs. I am long ELP.

    May 20 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eni's next growth area is southeast Asia, CEO says [View news story]
    Dear Eni,

    A contract is a written or spoken agreement, especially one concerning employment, sales, or tenancy, that is intended to be enforceable by law. If you feel like you got screwed on the link between oil and gas prices...that's on you, you accepted the terms. I cannot see how this is Statoil's fault. Would you be upset now if oil plunged and gas soared? Market forces now are making Statoil and Gazprom re-negotiate terms or make whole new contracts with buyers. But a contract is a contract that is a contract. Get over yourself.


    Nov 29 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services - Liquidate Or Buy In Bulk? [View article]
    I have not gone into great detail of their past history. But I agree, their current balance sheet is impressive and you have to like a founder/CEO/chair that has so much to gain (and lose) from their own doing. Will be doing DD on this one.

    Good article and thanks for posting!

    Nov 21 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eni said to demand $10B from Statoil in arbitration [View news story]
    I agree, Michael, that this seems to be a bit of a long shot to hold up in court if there was a supply agreement. Pending a review of the agreement, I would doubt that STO deviated from the contract substantially. This would have come out much sooner if this had happened, especially when oil plummeted in 2009. However, this may be Eni hoping to ride the curtails of the manipulation claims that have been posted the past few months.
    Nov 8 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Blows The Whistle On L&L Energy [View article]
    A lot of this information has been dismissed by the courts earlier this year:
    "Based on its review of the complaint, the court concluded that the Plaintiff did not raise a strong inference that one or more of the individual Defendants had acted knowingly, intentionally or with such recklessness that it reflected some degree of intentional or conscious misconduct. Plaintiff did not allege or point to evidence suggesting that any of the defendants were involved in compiling the information presented in the SAIC. Further, the inference that the individual Defendants were engaged in the 2009 SEC filing was neither cogent or compelling in light of other explanations. Although Plaintiff identified seven false or misleading statements made by the Defendants, there was no link between the false statements and a drop in the share price. The court granted the defendants motion citing the plaintiffs’ failure to adequately plead that the Defendants’ SEC filings contained inaccurate data and the complaint’s failure to properly allege scienter."

    Sep 19 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Statoil: 6.12 P/E And 3.82% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Mr. Vicek,

    Nice article! You put your findings in a clear and concise format and I like the logic you presented.

    However, I am a bit confused by your choices of stock. You can easily make a case for owning any of the companies you mentioned: XOM, COP, BP, RDS, or CVX.

    I would argue that in doing this, not only are you diversifying yourself to the point of following the sector, you are also picking up the fees associated with trading 5 stocks.

    After reading your comments it seems you are not calling STO a bad stock. So based the information you presented, why not invest in an ETF that will follow the sector? Owning basically the 5 largest oil companies will closely mirror the performance of the sector, and it is only 1 trade against 5. I do not know how many stocks are in your portfolio, but I would bet you are overweight energy.

    I am not condoning buying an ETF, but I would like your feedback on why you have chosen to own so many of the big boys versus just owning the sector.

    May 30 05:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    Full disclosure:

    Sold my position a couple of weeks ago due to the SP reaching my conclusion of fair value (seen in article).

    I still like the long-term prospects, but feel my money can be used more efficiently elsewhere.

    Good luck longs!

    May 24 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: $48 Per Share In 4 Years [View article]
    Great article! I feel that the PE is and has been quite suppressed compared to any point in the last 10 years and, as you colorfully point out, their prospects for growth are real in the mobile sector.
    May 7 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    Great observations. After the Geo Investing scandal that I mention in my article was dismissed by the courts, the direct result SHOULD have had an enormous effect on the stock (due to the uncertainty surrounding LPH from the same accuser). But as true with many securities, these things take time. I wrote this article to put, again, a clear view on why these many positives (as you have added; stellar management and safety records) will be of enormous benefit once these things start to simmer. To quote Field of Dreams, "If you build it, he will come."
    Mar 14 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    Interesting commentary. I look 3-5 years out, and I am not concerned about month to month price fluctuations. I just like the long-term prospects with this company relative to where it was/is selling!
    Mar 12 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    I apologize I wasn't more timely. I wrote and submitted this article in my free time last week making the last few changes on the weekend. My intention was not to break the stock through any resistance level it may or may not have, it was simply to state the reasons why I felt and still feel this is a strong and safe long position.
    Mar 12 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    Mar 12 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • L&L Energy: Why I Bought This Small-Cap Coal Company [View article]
    Where did you get this information?
    Mar 12 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment