Seeking Alpha
  • Patrick Harden
    Armour Residential (ARR) announces huge 50 million share secondary. No surprise given big premium to book and they filed 10-CTL early.
    8/2/12
    Reply (24)
    • Matthew Davis: But what is the price going to be? I can't find it anywhere. I won't buy at a premium to book.
      8/2/12
    • Ocean Man: Price is usually announced a day later.
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: If the price is book, 7.04 I will jump, but if they are just being greedy and put it at 7.50 forget it.
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: I did a drip calculator, and if the company lasts 20 years, just on a drip my position will be worth 117,000 in 20 years on a 2500 ivsmt,
      8/2/12
    • Ocean Man: Most likely 5% below today's closing price.
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: Well book is up to 7.04, All the decent REITs are trading at a premium to book right now, when the fear subsides a little they will drop
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: ANH is the only one that is agency backed, that isn't doing well.
      8/2/12
    • Ocean Man: AGNC was about 20% over book and priced about 3% under current price.
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: I know, and in a few months people will be thinking they made a suckers bet.
      8/2/12
    • Patrick Harden: ARR will probably price at $7.40 or so. It's a pretty large secondary.
      8/2/12
    • Matthew Davis: The company knows its not worth that, and thats why they have done 2 spo in a month.
      8/3/12
    • sector: Pricing "at market prices or at negotiated prices". What time do you think it's worth buying?
      8/3/12
    • Matthew Davis: book
      8/3/12
    • sector: I mean today, not in 2015.
      8/3/12
    • Matthew Davis: I am saying, I wouldn't buy today. I would buy when it comes down to reality.
      8/3/12
    • sector: ARR strong resistance @7.5
      8/3/12
    • kvlsam: i got in at 7.49 with 313..i never buy too many shares at once..that way my loss is limited. in it only for dividends, not capital gain.
      8/3/12
    • kvlsam: aug 13 is ex date,.....will buy it again if it goes to 7.35
      8/3/12
    • kvlsam: its gonna be a while for arr to drop to 7.04. Support lvl is 7.20
      8/3/12
    • sector: It was @7.22 last secondary for couple of seconds. Then it was bullish all the time. Got in at @7.48 if it drops more, may average down.
      8/3/12
    • sector: ARR traded 30M pre-market and then another 30M. Could be 80M by the close, 10x of its normal value.
      8/3/12
    • Matthew Davis: Amazing. Glad I got in at 6.90, I am not interested in averaging that much upward. 7.20 is a good deal, book will go up big time
      8/3/12
    • jvix: BV would've gone to 7.09 at 7.31 per share on secondary based on my math. Today's numbers should push that a bit higher, right?
      8/4/12
    • Matthew Davis: probably, I would be willing to add at 7.20 based on its growth, but I am concerned 3 spo in 3 months seems overheated and pref shares
      8/4/12