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Patrick J. O'Hare

 
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  • Market Still Playing By The Fed's House Rules [View article]
    My pleasure... thank you for reading.
    Jul 30 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outsized Gains Driven By Fun-Duh-Mental Strength [View article]
    Hi. The comments should have read 5% earnings growth (per FactSet data), not earnings per share growth. On a per hare basis, FactSet shows CY13 EPS up 8.1%. I see that Standard & Poor's reports +10.8%. Both are higher EPS growth rates obviously, yet that doesn't change the thrust of the view that, with a 30% price return, the market got too far ahead of itself pricing in the economic upturn in 2014 and that it has gotten quite the added boost from the Fed's policy. Thank you for bringing the discrepancy to my attention. I am sorry for the misstatement.
    Jul 1 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback, John, and you are right to point out that cognitive dissonance works both ways -- in bull and bear markets.
    Jul 23 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Fair point, although the woods are littered with investors/homeowners who got knocked out by the Fed fighting its fight too long.
    Jul 23 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback. Concentration risk is a big one, and the increasingly negative margin credit balance highlights the potential risk of a rush to the exit, like you say, when the "spell is finally broken."
    Jul 23 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Hi... not a frustrated "bear," just a conscientious market analyst who likes to remind investors that risk management is an essential component of successful investing (and trading).
    Jul 23 12:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    What I have done all year is share observations, supported by data, that suggest the economy and earnings growth are weak and that one should not take for granted that this is a risk-free stock market.
    Jul 23 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Thank you for your thoughts. If you are right about your 2017 turnaround forecast, the Fed would presumably have to do more on the QE front since the economy would be underperforming their projections -- something Bernanke said could be a precursor to increasing asset purchases, not reducing them.
    Jul 23 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Thank you for the feedback. It is greatly appreciated.
    Jul 23 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    I think you are right in that the Fed suffers from cognitive dissonance, too. It certainly has shown that it doesn't like disharmony in the capital markets, which is why it has gone through QE1, QE2, "Twist", and QE3. It was evident, too, when one Fed official after the next came out to calm the market down after the Fed chairman did an inadequate job of communicating the Fed's position at his June 19 press conference. For good measure, Bernanke added last week that a rise in interest rates would be unwelcome and that the Fed would have to push back against that if it was impeding growth.
    Jul 23 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market's Blissful State Of Cognitive Dissonance [View article]
    Thank you for the insight on memory alteration and your personal experience with it.

    The investing moral to my article is not to regard stock investing as risk free, even with the Fed doing what it's doing to prop up prices. It is simply prudent in an environment like this to consider hedging strategies that could ultimately prevent one from being taken to the cleaners and having to lie about it.
    Jul 23 12:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lowdown On Lowly Second-Quarter Earnings Growth Estimates [View article]
    You are welcome. Thank you for the feedback.
    Jul 11 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve Kicks Up Communication Dust [View article]
    Hi... our economy could be growing more quickly if loan demand was greater and banks weren't as tight as they are with their lending standards. Money isn't turning over in the economy because of this dynamic. In turn, companies are reluctant to expand their capacity and workforce, because uncertainty about the demand outlook is still quite high. That is owed in large part to the actions of central banks around the world. Everyone is aware of the course they have chosen, but their ability to handle an unwinding process is what has corporations and a lot of individuals playing things very conservatively still. The risk of policy error looms large while the growth limitations of debt deleveraging persist. These are important factors keeping growth from reaching its potential.
    May 31 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Phantom Menace In The Market Outlook [View article]
    I'm glad you enjoyed the piece, although it is clear you could have written it in a much more entertaining fashion than I did.
    Apr 10 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware: Market Complacency And Speculation On The Rise [View article]
    Thank you. If you'd like to keep tabs on the margin info, you can do so here: http://bit.ly/V7elv3
    Jan 15 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
16 Comments
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