XME: My Favorite Way to Play Commodities [View article]
I like the viewpoint that XME and other "cyclicals" have not benefited from cheap money. Commodity producers require actual growth to outperform. However, when, not if, growth returns, and especially under conditions where the dollar weakness will flatten or reverse, these names will catch up with the gains in the overall market and continue to outperform for some time. XME has also been hurt by the decline of US coal demand (~20% of holdings). It is doubtful whether US coal demand will ever recover (bearish for railroads), but perhaps the miners will find overseas markets for coal. Full disclosure, I basically exchanged XME for FCX when FCX took a nose dive after revealing they would diversify into oil and gas.
Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
There is a serious shock coming in the bond markets. The realization that owning bonds, like real estate, or for that matter gold, is not "risk-free" will mean that at least on a relative basis, buyers of securities will be just as likely to desire stocks as any other asset class and a generational rotation into equities will result in outsized gains for those who got in early.
Where Are We In The Secular Bear Market? [View article]
I like your historical lens, but I would argue the pattern now (2000 - 2020) looks more like 1920 - 1940. A risky bubble (1929 = 2007), followed by crash (1932 = 2009) and 4 year bull market (1936 = 2013). Maybe some more shocks coming down the line in 2014, 2015 when the bond market implodes, but the mid - late 30's were a great time to invest for the long term, and some opportunities lead the market higher. http://bit.ly/MqNhPY
Freeport-McMoran Sees Oil & Gas More Valuable Than Copper & Gold [View article]
Just because investors didn't want to be in the phone business, doesn't mean they should have sold Apple when they started selling iphones. I have to believe that Freeport looked around for companies to buy and decided they had enough copper-gold resources. Companies with very large copper-gold mines are highly dependent on the price of metal, not how much copper and gold they find each year. This allows Freeport to be more flexible in growing their business because a downturn in copper doesn't necessarily mean the cash dries up.
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
Having a "Cantina Menu" isn't going to change the fact that Taco Bell still looks like a tele-tubby in colors and styling. It won't change that everyone knows that their food is as far from a plant or an animal product as you can find in the world and still be called edible.
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
It has nothing to do with taste. It has to do with the fact that Chipotle is a not a fast food restaurant and not quite a substitute for full service restaurant chains. It is simply a really good food option in the $6-7 range.
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
Caveat: Chipotle (CMG) has one third as many locations as Taco Bell (YUM). That Chipotle has "meager" comp sales growth is a red herring because every time a new Chipotle restaurant opens, they are forever selling burritos as fast as they can wrap them. Really the only way to grow sales at a Chipotle restaurant is to have longer hours. Additionally, Taco Bell doesn't lose market share when a Chipotle opens: P.F. Chang's suffers. That's because a Chipotle burrito for $6.75 is a higher class product than P.F. Chang's business-professional-... $ 9 - 12 lunches. Oh, and that reminds me, CMG is opening Asian noodle houses too! This is not about Taco Bell. This is about the biggest growth story in retail store fronts besides Whole Foods Market.
XME: My Favorite Way to Play Commodities [View article]
XME: My Favorite Way to Play Commodities [View article]
XME: My Favorite Way to Play Commodities [View article]
Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
Buy mulitnational corporations.
Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
Where Are We In The Secular Bear Market? [View article]
http://bit.ly/MqNhPY
Apple: Listen To The Quiet [View article]
Apple: 155 Billion USD in annual revenue.
On the other hand,
ExxonMobil: 452 Billion USD in annual revenue.
Apple: Listen To The Quiet [View article]
Freeport-McMoran Sees Oil & Gas More Valuable Than Copper & Gold [View article]
3 Small-Cap Growth Industrial Tech Companies [View article]
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]
David Einhorn: Yum Brands Vs. Chipotle [View article]