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Patrick Young

 
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  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Even if we can't prosecute the grievance yet I'd like some reassurance from an expert or the company's counsel that the IP is probably infringed by the UB design. This is the definition of a ripoff. My favorite concept in law is that something is "arbitrary". for example, the inclusion of any small amount (1%, 2%, 10% etc) of Pb plate to a carbon electrode is arbitrary and that the intent and substance of the product construction is a Pb-carbon assymettric supercapacitor and directly infringes on Axion IP.
    Aug 25 04:49 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Very good paper about EROI: http://bit.ly/1sq7mcz

    "No direct LCA (lifetime cycle assessment) studies could be found for storage systems but pump storage systems are very similar to hydro electricity plants with storage capabilities."
    Aug 25 01:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    D Lane> It seems to me that all else being the same, switching to a 48V system is done simply to be able to draw more power for electric systems on board from the battery+generator while not using larger wires to handle higher currents. Increasing voltage reduces the cost of wiring.

    Again, all else being equal, if you need high Power and can sacrifice a bit on total energy, then PbC excels versus lead-acid and Li-ion.

    Additionally, by switching to 48 Volt systems, they need to make significant changes to the battery system. This removes a good deal of the inertia faced by Axion with the OEM's.

    Finally, making the move to 48V allows them to produce vehicles with electrical systems that start/stop the engine frequently and enable mild hybrids where HRPSOC cycling of a battery is required. In these applications, the PbC will have a significant performance advantage over both lead-acid and Li-ion.

    So yes, any switch to 48V by an OEM is a plus for PbC.
    Aug 25 11:59 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    >iindelco Nice Find!
    Aug 23 07:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Mr. Holty>The IRR quoted in that letter of 20.2% is not so far off from 28%. I would say in the same ballpark.
    Aug 22 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    The discount rate is the rate that the purchaser would pay to finance the project, not Axion. It is not attractive to Axion because they cannot finance at 3.125% but they can sure as heck use some solid sales for cash.
    Aug 22 06:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    I also note that the most recent decline in price from $0.13 to $0.09 began on July 24, which is a FINRA short interest reporting due date.

    The new terms with Mr. Averill and the PIPE came August 4 (a Monday), which put a bottom in at $0.086.

    This leads me to believe that John Petersen is correct in stating that the FINRA data is informative about the direction of the stock price going forward and that the PIPE was to blame for the beaten down price and that the most recent changes to the warrants are to tie their hands until the skies clear.
    Aug 22 03:32 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    I guess my point is that the published numbers suggest FR alone makes the PowerCube bankable and I am really excited to see if these "investors" who are interested in including PowerCubes in an FR REIT bear fruit. If they can effectively sell the security to retail investors, they will max out Axion's production line in no time.

    I just think providing an example in the investor presentation would be helpful to people who are unfamiliar with the company.
    Aug 22 03:06 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    On the other hand, maybe I am being too conservative. Let's assume that the system can perform as intended (loss of total capacity does not affect the FR capabilities) for 10 years before being recycled and that revenue from FR will only increase as more solar and wind comes on line (say by 10% a year for the first 5 years and leveling off as the system reaches its optimum operating capacity).
    Then IRR = 45.38%
    and
    Net Present Value = ~$1 million
    Aug 22 02:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 360 August 22 '14: 10-Q For Q1 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    The top of my laundry list of complaints about AXPW's marketing is that they have not released an example of the IRR of the PowerCube system though they claim it is good and have given us the tools to calculate it.

    So I calculated the IRR using the following website: http://bit.ly/1oi1oqk

    I used the following inputs:

    4 PowerCubes = $1.1M
    Price per cube of $275,000 (in small batches).
    A PowerCube provides $9000 of revenue monthly or $108000 annually.
    Assuming that over a 6 year lifetime the PowerCube loses 20% of its capacity and that translates directly to a 20% loss in revenue averaged over 6 years, and assuming a 3.125% discount rate (underwritten by large investment banks).

    The IRR = 28.868%
    and
    Net Present Value = $260,829

    IRR of 28.87% is excellent if I am not mistaken...
    Aug 22 02:12 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Ranma> In general, people don't like to try new things. They find familiarity rewarding and comforting. A little adventure now and then is nice, but it takes effort and can be kinda scary or disappointing.

    Once someone visits a restaurant once, and likes it, they usually keep coming back. Additionally, even if they've never been, when they see their friends and neighbors eating there, they assume it must be OK.

    I guarantee that whatever the longterm profitability of the busy restaurant is, the one that is empty will soon close.
    Aug 22 11:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    If I were to invest in one thing besides AXPW right now it would be (NYSEARCA:URA). Uranium is like gold (rare), but with a practical application and it has been beaten down, severely - down over 75% since the Fukushima disaster in early 2011.

    Incredibly, the "green" revolutionists continue to ignore, or worse, oppose nuclear for power generation. The age of cheap oil ended sometime in the late 90's.

    The viable alternatives are the following things: coal, nuclear, and solar. Interestingly, the entire energy fuel sector, whether it be coal, oil, nuclear, or solar have all under-performed since early 2011.
    Aug 21 06:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Dinv> I was looking more for some kind of surprise: Cummins maybe, or better yet, more details and a preliminary sale in the "investable PowerCube" structured security that was hinted at.
    Aug 21 06:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    http://bit.ly/1nfaLrl

    Interestingly, this author believes ZBB is undervalued on the basis of a low EV/Revenue (4.3) relative to it's peers. According to his own table, however, AXPW's EV/Revenue is 2.4, the lowest in the group, followed by FCEL at 3.7. I always liked FCEL - much more so than PLUG and BLDP - because FCEL runs on ordinary natural gas, can be used for combined heat and power applications, and is therefore of great interest for grid applications. They also have a fairly mature project developing fuel-flexible Solid Oxide Fuel Cells with the US Navy - primarily for submarines. Also, their design can be used as a kind of carbon capture device.

    Always nice when other people validate your thesis, even if they ignore the obvious from their own observations to fit their own thesis.
    Aug 21 01:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 359 August 17 '14: 10-Q For Q2 2014; S-1 For $15MM Share Issuance; Changed Loan, IP-Secured MDA; David DiGiacinto Appointed Chairman And CEO [View instapost]
    Think 90% capacity versus 10% capacity. Both have good food.
    Aug 21 12:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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