For the moment, it looks like the future of computing, as defined by Apple, has two basic elements: beautiful objects and the Internet.

How could this be different from the AT&T rollout in the US?  Though Apple shareholders (which I am not) should be ecstatic, Apple users in Europe will need to be satisfied with cooing over the beautiful user interface with the lack of HSDPA for Internet downloading.  Jeesh, get your act together on network side, Apple.  The company certainly can’t use the excuse that Euro operators do not have the HSDPA infrastructure in place.  Heck, operator 3 in the UK, just lowered its HSDPA pricing to $20 per month for 2.8 Mbps.  I do not think we are going to see a price like that from AT&T any time soon.

Round one definitely goes to Apple in this boxing match. This is a brilliant move. Nothing is harder for mobile operators to do, than giving up a piece of their revenue per user. Not sure this is true? Take a read through any mobile operators quarterly earnings slides and see how they crow about increasing average revenue per user [ARPU].

How could this be different from the AT&T (T) roll out in the US? Though Apple shareholders (which I am not) should be ecstatic. However, Apple users in Europe will need to be satisfied with cooing over the beautiful user interface with the lack of HSDPA for Internet downloading.

But femto cells are not without their technical hurdles. One of those challenges is the requirement for femto cells to behave nicely in the overall macro cell radio frequency [RF] system. In other words, when thousands or millions of femto cells interact with the larger cellular infrastructure in the RF domain, they must mitigate the potential interference with other femto cells and with the surrounding macro cell network.

For consumers the value proposition is simple: better coverage, maybe family in-home calling plans, and higher performance data services since cellular bandwidth is shared by fewer users.

He also argues that Apple probably did not want to embarrass Cingular by shining a spotlight on the inadequacy of the operator’s HSDPA coverage, or hang the iPhone’s success or failure on a half-built network. Agreed on both points.

But I still don’t see how Apple can hit its numbers (10m units in FY’08). In fact, I agree with Eric Savitz of Barron’s. Why?

The iPhone is exclusive to Cingular, and as such it uses Cingular’s data service to connect to the Internet. But the specification listed on Apple’s web site shows the iPhone supporting something called GSM/EDGE, a horribly slow network that is marginally better than GSM’s ubiquitous GPRS.

Cingular is in the process of rolling out its higher speed HSDPA network — a wireless data service that typically can support average datarates of 500–700 Kbps on the downlink and peak data rates of 1.8 Mbps. Surely, by June when the iPhone ships, Apple and Cingular should think about supporting HSDPA.

1. Sprint is doing both. Sprint’s press release says that it will be “creating multimode devices that will support services on both the 4G network and the 3G network [read: EV-DO] in areas outside the planned 4G coverage, and will provide voice service using the core 3G network. The 4G broadband network will offer a complementary, high-bandwidth service driven by data centric devices.” Data centric devices obviously driven by Intel. Multimode devices (e.g., phones) provided by Motorola.

Where does that leave mobile TV? Yahoo just made a deal with CBS to carry an on-demand version of 60 Minutes with access to archived programs. But I don’t think mobile TV viewers will be willing to pay for it. I would think that wireless operators Sprint, Verizon, and Alltel would be interested in offering two tiers of mobile TV viewing via EV-DO:

1. Free noise: The equivalent of basic cable but fully ad-funded: music videos from VH1, news from CNN and MSNBC, weather.

1. Is shipping in volume. Marvell says that its chips are beyond sampling and are shipping in volume. The company would give no dates, but indicated that its 802.11n chipset already had several design wins.

2. Will appear in retail access points (APs) and adapters, first. Unlike Marvell’s previous focus on the embedded market (Sony PSP, Microsoft Xbox 360, some multimode phones with Wi-Fi), its first 802.11n chipsets will appear in discrete consumer Wi-Fi products such as adapters, routers, and APs. Marvell characterized the timeframe for these products as “soon.]]> Wed, 22 Mar 2006 06:36:39 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: After a posting and inside look at the trials and tribulations of 802.11n chip makers, I had a follow up conversation with Mahesh Venkatraman, Senior Technology Marketing Manager for Marvell. The company says that its 802.11n chipset, the 88W836X family:

1. Is shipping in volume. Marvell says that its chips are beyond sampling and are shipping in volume. The company would give no dates, but indicated that its 802.11n chipset already had several design wins.

2. Will appear in retail access points (APs) and adapters, first. Unlike Marvell’s previous focus on the embedded market (Sony PSP, Microsoft Xbox 360, some multimode phones with Wi-Fi), its first 802.11n chipsets will appear in discrete consumer Wi-Fi products such as adapters, routers, and APs. Marvell characterized the timeframe for these products as “soon.
Complete Story »]]> ATHR BRCM MRVL Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7942-mobile-voip-and-fear-of-the-wild-things?source=feed 7942 VoIP in mobile phones. What are they afraid of?

* Eroding minutes. Long the dream of the Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) crowd, VoIP-equipped mobile phones could avoid burning minutes by using enterprise Wi-Fi connections.

* More Skypes. Microsoft, Skype, and others are demonstrating free SIP-based VoIP clients for smart phones running Mobile Windows. With Google in the mix, the sky is surely falling.

]]> Tue, 21 Mar 2006 05:01:20 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: Mobile operators are wringing their hands over the use of VoIP in mobile phones. What are they afraid of?

* Eroding minutes. Long the dream of the Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) crowd, VoIP-equipped mobile phones could avoid burning minutes by using enterprise Wi-Fi connections.

* More Skypes. Microsoft, Skype, and others are demonstrating free SIP-based VoIP clients for smart phones running Mobile Windows. With Google in the mix, the sky is surely falling.

Complete Story »]]> Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7754-drinking-from-the-mvno-money-keg-mot-lu-nok-nt?source=feed 7754 Om Malik and Ian Gilliot have written extensively on the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) phenomenon, some of them raising upwards of $300m to build specialty services that ride on existing mobile operator networks. Both Om and Ian suggest that MVNOs like Amp’D, Helio, XeroMobile, and Mobile ESPN are likely to follow the same boom-bust dynamic of CLECs of five years ago. I agree. History is likely to repeat itself.

In fact, a new mania is upon the land as evidenced by the facts surrounding those involved in the most recent wild horse, XeroMobile. The Register, FT, and others have reported on the strange nature of some of the principals, many of whom recently jumped from a failed effort using the same business model. Apparently, the past doesn’t seem to matter to a substantial number of investors.

That being the case, there will be winners and losers — just like the last time. As Om Malik and others point out, the losers will be “private equity investors, venture capitalists, and well in the end the citizens who fund pension funds.]]> Thu, 16 Mar 2006 05:11:39 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: Om Malik and Ian Gilliot have written extensively on the Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) phenomenon, some of them raising upwards of $300m to build specialty services that ride on existing mobile operator networks. Both Om and Ian suggest that MVNOs like Amp’D, Helio, XeroMobile, and Mobile ESPN are likely to follow the same boom-bust dynamic of CLECs of five years ago. I agree. History is likely to repeat itself.

In fact, a new mania is upon the land as evidenced by the facts surrounding those involved in the most recent wild horse, XeroMobile. The Register, FT, and others have reported on the strange nature of some of the principals, many of whom recently jumped from a failed effort using the same business model. Apparently, the past doesn’t seem to matter to a substantial number of investors.

That being the case, there will be winners and losers — just like the last time. As Om Malik and others point out, the losers will be “private equity investors, venture capitalists, and well in the end the citizens who fund pension funds.
Complete Story »]]> LU MOT NOK NT Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7717-insider-s-perspective-on-wi-fi-chip-makers-athr-brcm-mrvl?source=feed 7717 Though I just recently wrote about Atheros (ticker: ATHR) and its worthy opponents, it is always useful to examine the details of the game from an inside perspective. Sometimes the smallest details are the most revealing — a flaw in execution, or an unstoppable competitive weapon. To that end, I recently pinged several well placed sources for insight into the latest trials and customer interactions for Airgo, Atheros, Broadcom (ticker: BRCM), and Marvell (ticker: MRVL).

1. Airgo has quietly landed some embedded deals, and has had them for an extended period of time. Samsung is shipping Airgo’s miniPCI modules in Samsung-branded PCs. These PCs are sold in the worldwide market outside of the US under the Samsung brand, while similar models without Airgo-inside are sold by Dell (ticker: DELL) around the world. Airgo has also has successfully inserted its chips into at least one security camera product — the Smartvue S2.

2. Atheros is winning handsets in Asia. As it has in the past, Atheros has put considerable effort into the Japanese market. Anyone who has attempted winning the likes of NEC (ticker: NIPNY), Sony (ticker: SNE), Matsushita (ticker: MC), and Toshiba knows that it is a multi-year affair. Building on relationships that span almost six years, Atheros has won a major handset deal in Japan and is continuing to win others in the embedded space. Atheros says it is also sampling its 802.11n/EWC products to strategic partners, but I haven't gotten any direct customer feedback yet on how these look.

]]> Wed, 15 Mar 2006 08:45:17 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: Though I just recently wrote about Atheros (ticker: ATHR) and its worthy opponents, it is always useful to examine the details of the game from an inside perspective. Sometimes the smallest details are the most revealing — a flaw in execution, or an unstoppable competitive weapon. To that end, I recently pinged several well placed sources for insight into the latest trials and customer interactions for Airgo, Atheros, Broadcom (ticker: BRCM), and Marvell (ticker: MRVL).

1. Airgo has quietly landed some embedded deals, and has had them for an extended period of time. Samsung is shipping Airgo’s miniPCI modules in Samsung-branded PCs. These PCs are sold in the worldwide market outside of the US under the Samsung brand, while similar models without Airgo-inside are sold by Dell (ticker: DELL) around the world. Airgo has also has successfully inserted its chips into at least one security camera product — the Smartvue S2.

2. Atheros is winning handsets in Asia. As it has in the past, Atheros has put considerable effort into the Japanese market. Anyone who has attempted winning the likes of NEC (ticker: NIPNY), Sony (ticker: SNE), Matsushita (ticker: MC), and Toshiba knows that it is a multi-year affair. Building on relationships that span almost six years, Atheros has won a major handset deal in Japan and is continuing to win others in the embedded space. Atheros says it is also sampling its 802.11n/EWC products to strategic partners, but I haven't gotten any direct customer feedback yet on how these look.

Complete Story »]]> ATHR BRCM MRVL Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7671-atheros-know-thine-enemies-athr-brcm-mrvl?source=feed 7671

Doubled its stock price in the past three months

Maintained 100% share in enterprise access points (APs)

Encroached on Broadcom and Marvell in the consumer space

Cut a deal with Qualcomm for the mobile phone market

Conspired (er…I mean partnered) with Intel, Marvell, and Broadcom to steal 802.11n away from Airgo

Not bad. But the competition doesn’t likes it when the other guy is doing this well. In the fishing business, you never tell the competition how much you landed and where you caught them. If you do, the rest of the fleet will be crawling all over you like ants on a dead cookie. Ah yes, but these are public companies. They must report — and now everybody knows.

]]> Tue, 14 Mar 2006 03:48:27 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: Wi-Fi chip maker Atheros has done well by anyone’s standards:

Doubled its stock price in the past three months

Maintained 100% share in enterprise access points (APs)

Encroached on Broadcom and Marvell in the consumer space

Cut a deal with Qualcomm for the mobile phone market

Conspired (er…I mean partnered) with Intel, Marvell, and Broadcom to steal 802.11n away from Airgo

Not bad. But the competition doesn’t likes it when the other guy is doing this well. In the fishing business, you never tell the competition how much you landed and where you caught them. If you do, the rest of the fleet will be crawling all over you like ants on a dead cookie. Ah yes, but these are public companies. They must report — and now everybody knows.

Complete Story »]]> ATHR BRCM MRVL Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7563-at-t-bellsouth-it-s-not-about-the-internet-t-bls?source=feed 7563 Renesys yesterday — an amazing company tracking the growth of the Internet world-wide with “repeatable, objective, unfalsifiable]]> Thu, 09 Mar 2006 05:46:16 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: I stumbled across Renesys yesterday — an amazing company tracking the growth of the Internet world-wide with “repeatable, objective, unfalsifiable
Complete Story »]]> BLS GLBC LVLT S T VZ Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7438-nokia-mobile-tv-study-bodes-well-for-high-speed-data-services-vz-t-nok-s-dt?source=feed 7438 Nokia — a totally engineering-driven company — recently participated in a user study of 375 households in Oxford, England, equipped with TV-enabled mobile phones. Surprise. The results were not what the researchers expected:

1. 50% of the test group watched mobile TV when they were inside their homes, not when they were running around being mobile.

]]> Mon, 06 Mar 2006 14:13:31 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: I love this kind of story: engineer’s dream meets reality.

Nokia — a totally engineering-driven company — recently participated in a user study of 375 households in Oxford, England, equipped with TV-enabled mobile phones. Surprise. The results were not what the researchers expected:

1. 50% of the test group watched mobile TV when they were inside their homes, not when they were running around being mobile.

Complete Story »]]> DT NOK S T VZ Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7437-at-t-bellsouth-big-and-scary-nonsense-t-bls?source=feed 7437 Under the influence of this megamoney drug, the leaders of AT&T and BellSouth met over bird hunting in Georgia and agree to convince their respective boards that putting the two companies together would make the combined company more competitive. How is it that the new AT&T believes it can dominate the competition? Scale, my boy, scale.

Really? Let’s take a look at who AT&T and BellSouth are most afraid of — Verizon and the cable guys.

]]> Mon, 06 Mar 2006 13:40:54 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: Suddenly, the telecom world has become delusional. Why? Maybe it’s the numbers — $67 billion purchase price, $120 billion in sales. Apparently, such big numbers are the financial equivalent to LSD.

Under the influence of this megamoney drug, the leaders of AT&T and BellSouth met over bird hunting in Georgia and agree to convince their respective boards that putting the two companies together would make the combined company more competitive. How is it that the new AT&T believes it can dominate the competition? Scale, my boy, scale.

Really? Let’s take a look at who AT&T and BellSouth are most afraid of — Verizon and the cable guys.

Complete Story »]]> BLS CMCSA T VZ Paul Callahan http://seekingalpha.com/article/7439-tv-on-your-phone-what-happens-when-it-happens?source=feed 7439

Comcast, Cox, Sprint, and Time Warner are doing a joint venture, and Verizon has already rolled out Vcast. Those activities are enough to cause a lot of money to move, if only to build out significant portions of the infrastructure to support spot markets. What happens as a result?

]]> Mon, 20 Feb 2006 22:08:14 -0500 Paul Callahan Paul Callahan submits: I'm not going to argue about whether TV on your cell phone — mobile broadband — is going to be big or going to be little. Fact is, TV on your cell phone will happen. Whether it happens quickly and is a smash hit, or whether it dribbles out at the very top end of the market, is a different discussion.

Comcast, Cox, Sprint, and Time Warner are doing a joint venture, and Verizon has already rolled out Vcast. Those activities are enough to cause a lot of money to move, if only to build out significant portions of the infrastructure to support spot markets. What happens as a result?

Complete Story »]]> CMCSA S TWX VZ Paul Callahan