ChangeWave’s November corporate IT spending survey points to an uptick in IT spending for 1st Quarter 2010 – midst the strongest growth rate in 2 years.

Regarding PCs, the release of the Windows 7 operating system is the key factor driving growth. Nearly three-in-four (73%) of the 1,753 corporate IT buyers say their company will be buying Laptops and 69% Desktops in the 1st Quarter – the highest levels for both since February 2008.

While previous ChangeWave surveys found companies deferring their PC purchases in anticipation of Windows 7, the latest results show the opposite now occurring. Nearly one-in-five (19%) say Windows 7 is causing their company’s normal upgrade cycle to accelerate.

Moreover, almost one-in-ten respondents (9%) say their company has already purchased computers with Windows 7 installed.

We note that Windows 7 beta testers from ChangeWave surveys earlier this year found high user satisfaction – and since its release the new OS has largely lived up these findings. Among respondent companies already using Windows 7, overall satisfaction is quite strong – with 37% saying their company is Very Satisfied and 56% Somewhat Satisfied with the new operating system.

But what does the uptick in corporate PCs mean for the major PC manufacturers?

Dell Corporate PC Share

For the third consecutive survey, Dell’s corporate PC share is inching higher. A total of one-in-three (33%) now say their company plans on buying Dell desktops and 32% laptops in the 1st Quarter – each up 1-pt to the highest levels of the past two years.

Corporate sales account for 80% of Dell’s PC business, and after a long 3 year slide these latest survey findings are a welcome bullish sign. They support the recent assertion by Steve Felice, president of the firm’s small and medium business, that Dell’s core corporate PC market is returning.

Hewlett-Packard

In a further sign of strength, the survey findings for H-P are the most upbeat in years, with 18% of respondents saying their company will be buying H-P desktops and 18% laptops in the 1st Quarter – up 2-pts and 3-pts respectively.

We note that about 70% of H-P’s sales come from outside the U.S. – while our ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the U.S. market.

Apple Corporate Mac Sales Set for New Highs

To date, Windows 7 does not appear to be hurting Apple’s corporate Mac sales. Rather, planned Mac buying has hit a new high in the latest survey, with one-in-ten respondents (10%) saying their company will be buying Mac laptops and 7% desktops in the 1st Quarter.

Andy Golub co-wrote this article.

ChangeWave’s latest IT spending survey points to an uptick in corporate IT spending for 1st Quarter 2010 – and the strongest growth rate of the past two years.

A total of 1,753 respondents involved with IT spending in their organization participated in the November 9-20 ChangeWave survey.

Looking ahead, 22% of respondents report their company’s IT spending will increase for 1st Quarter 2010 – a 4-pt improvement since our previous survey in August. And while 21% say their company’s IT spending will decrease (or there will be no spending at all) – that’s still a 4-pt improvement from previously.

We also asked respondents if their IT spending was on track so far in the fourth quarter, and here the improvement is considerably weaker.

Twelve percent say they’ve spent More than Planned thus far in the fourth quarter, while 29% say they’ve spent Less than Planned – for a net 4-pt improvement.

In sum, while IT spending growth continues to strengthen – a bullish sign for the economy – the overall growth picture is nonetheless far from robust.

Individual IT Categories: In terms of first quarter spending, PCs (18%; up 3-pts), Platforms/ Operating Systems (11%; up 2-pts) and Storage (13%; up 2-pts) are registering the most momentum going forward – much of this attributable to the recent Windows 7 release.

This becomes even more apparent when we see the biggest winners among specific vendors.

Winning Vendors: We asked respondents to tell us which specific vendors their company would be increasing their spending on in first Quarter 2010 compared to the current quarter and there was one hands down winner:

For the second consecutive survey Microsoft (MSFT; +12) shows the most momentum going forward – once again clearly attributable to the Windows 7 effect.

In the same survey we also focused on corporate smart phone buying and found the market looks very healthy going forward. Thirty-eight percent of respondents report their company plans to buy smart phones next quarter – up 3-pts from previously to the highest level in more than two years.

While RIM (RIMM; 69%; down 5-pts) maintains a dominant share of planned corporate buying going forward, increased competition is continuing to chip away at its huge lead.

At the same time, Apple (AAPL) continues to show growth in terms of corporate planned purchases – with three-in-ten (30%) respondents saying their company will purchase Apple phones in first quarter.

We note that most of RIM’s corporate share is heavily concentrated among larger companies (over 1,000 Employees), while Apple’s corporate share is among small- to medium-sized companies (under 1,000 Employees).

But the biggest surprise of the survey is the strong showing for Motorola (MOT; 11%) – which is registering a huge 7-pt jump in terms of first quarter planned buying.

This is the first increase for Motorola in a ChangeWave corporate survey in nearly three years – clearly attributable to the recent release of their new Droid model.

To sum it up, the survey findings point to an uptick in corporate IT spending for first quarter 2010 – and the strongest rate of growth of the past two years. Nonetheless, the overall growth picture remains far from robust.

By Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

Overall consumer spending is holding steady, even as we've picked up major improvements in holiday spending for the 2009 season.

In short, overall consumer spending is virtually the same as in our previous ChangeWave survey. But holiday spending is extraordinarily better than a year ago (November 2008), when just 10% of respondents said they'd be spending more and 59% less.

Importantly, the survey of 2,954 U.S. consumers, completed November 10th, shows holiday spending is going to be far better than the depressed levels of a year ago – though nowhere near as strong as in the three years prior to the recession, as the following chart points out:

A total of 9% say they'll be Spending More Money on holiday shopping this season while 32% say they'll Spend Less – but that's a huge 21-pt improvement over November 2008 (when only 4% said they'd Spend More vs. 48% Less).

Our survey shows a big uptick for a handful of major retailers – led by blowout numbers for Amazon (AMZN).

Holiday Spending Among Online Retailers - It's an Amazon Holiday Season

In terms of online shopping, we're clearly witnessing a historic blowout for Amazon this holiday season. Not only is Amazon showing the most momentum among all online retailers, but its huge 8-pt jump since August represents the largest improvement ever recorded in online spending in a ChangeWave survey.

Amazon Also Leads Holiday Spending Among Home Entertainment Retailers

Amazon is also the overall momentum leader in terms of home entertainment shopping.

Nearly one-in-three respondents (31%) now say they'll shop there for home entertainment and computer networking products over the next 90 days – a 3-pt jump since October to the highest level for Amazon in more than 3 years.

The major discounters and wholesale clubs – including Costco (COST; 26%; up 2-pts), Wal-Mart (WMT; 19%; up 2-pts), Sam's Club (11%; up 2-pts) and Target (TGT; 7%; up 1-pt) – are also showing upticks in home entertainment shopping for the holidays.

While industry leader Best Buy (BBY; 42%) is unchanged in market share since our previous survey, it does stand to benefit from the big increase in overall gift shopping this holiday season compared to last.

Biggest Retail Store Winners - Discounters and Wholesale Clubs

Turning to overall holiday shopping trends, our latest results again show the discount retailers and wholesale clubs are the huge winners this November, led by Costco (+4) which looks best positioned to outperform going forward.

Target (+3), Wal-Mart (+3), and its Sam's Club (+2) subsidiary have also experienced a sharp pickup in momentum.

Note that Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY; +2) also picked up 2 point since the previous survey.

A rising tide is lifting all boats, and we're also seeing a slight uptick among some of the major department stores, including Macy's (M; +1), Bloomingdale's (+1), JC Penney (JCP; +1) and Sears (SHLD; +1).

As normally seen during the holidays, Consumer Electronics spending now shows the greatest momentum going forward – with 26% saying they'll spend more on consumer electronics over the next 90 days and 32% less.

This represents a net 10-pt jump from a month ago and a huge 18-pt improvement over the holiday season of a year ago.

In terms of individual items, the Apple iPod (8%; up 3-pts) and the Amazon Kindle eReader (4%; up 1-pt) both show significant momentum compared to the previous survey and to a year ago. Digital Cameras (14%; up 4-pts) are also up since the previous survey, but are down slightly compared to last holiday season.

Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

These are heady times for the smart phone market, with consumer buying plans near record levels. Moreover, electronics spending in general shows signs of a pick up. But what impact are the new Apple iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre models having on the market?

A September 14-21 survey by ChangeWave Research provides an up-close look at the impact of the new Apple (APPL) and Palm (PALM) offerings – along with an update on Research In Motion (RIMM) and overall smart phone industry trends going forward.

The survey of 4,255 consumers shows strong growth continues in the smart phone market, with 39% of respondents now reporting they own a smart phone – up 2-pts since June and nearly double the level of two years ago.

Looking ahead, while the current survey shows a slight dip in consumer buying plans for the next 90 days, that’s to be expected in the aftermath of the huge iPhone 3GS and Palm Pre product launches back in June. A total of 11.6% now say they plan on buying a smart phone in the next 90 days – 3-pts less than in June but still one of the highest percentages ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey.

Smart Phone Demand: Apple vs. RIM vs. Palm

Current Market Share: RIM (40%) remains the current market share leader among consumers, but its fallen 1-pt since the previous survey and is at its lowest level in two years.

Palm (7%) remains far behind in third place, but we note that this is the first survey in nearly two years where their share hasn’t fallen – and that’s a clearly encouraging sign.

Next 90 Days: Going forward, Apple’s share of planned smart phone purchases has settled back somewhat after the huge spike of excitement it enjoyed in June from the iPhone 3GS release. Note that its 8-pt drop between June and September (from 44% to 36%) is far less than the 22-pt drop we picked up a year ago after the iPhone 3G launch.

RIM is still in second with 27% of planned purchases – up 4-pts since June, but below its percentage from a year ago. Palm, meanwhile, remains unchanged at 8% – which is not surprising given the burst of momentum it previously received in June with the Pre launch.

Cell Phone Customer Satisfaction

The Apple iPhone continues to maintain the highest customer satisfaction rating in the industry among major cell phone manufacturers – with 74% of owners reporting they’re Very Satisfied with their iPhone.

RIM ranks second with 43% saying they’re Very Satisfied, down 5-pts since June. Third place LG customers (39%) rate their cell phones a few points behind. Also, note that while Palm’s Very Satisfied rating is only 33%, it’s been on an upswing since the Pre entered the market.

Bottom Line

In the horserace among manufacturers, the release of the iPhone 3GS has led to a big jump in smart phone market share for Apple and has placed them within striking distance of Research In Motion – whose slew of models are still number one but have fallen to their lowest level in two years.

There are very few things for RIM to crow about in the current survey results. Besides its downtick in market share, the firm’s Very Satisfied rating among Blackberry owners has fallen 5-pts since June to its lowest level ever in a ChangeWave survey.

Also, while it’s up 4-pts in terms of planned purchases, that’s below its number of a year ago when new Bold, Storm and Pearl models were either already in stores or approaching release. In short, RIM has its work cut out to regain its momentum in the fourth quarter.

All this notwithstanding, RIM is expected to have multiple device launches and will introduce new services in the coming months. Moreover it continues to outperform in its core corporate smart phone market. Thus, despite RIM’s underperformance in the current consumer survey, longer term trends suggest that it is still well positioned for long term growth and will continue to remain one of the premier players in the rapidly expanding smart phone sector.

In terms of Palm, the new Pre model has helped reverse the firm’s long, multi-year slide. For the first time in nearly two years of surveys, their market share is no longer falling.

Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article.

Following two consecutive monthly improvements, ChangeWave’s latest survey of U.S. consumers shows the spending outlook holding steady in October.

One-in-four U.S. consumers (25%) now say they'll spend more over the next 90 days than they did a year ago – down 1-pt since the previous survey in September. But while two-in-five (40%) say they’ll spend less – that’s actually 1-pt improved from previously.

In short, overall spending among consumers continues to remain at the highest level in a ChangeWave survey since May 2008 – but has not improved since our previous survey in September.

Importantly, the October 1-12 survey of 2,731 U.S. consumers also points to a spending uptick for a handful of major retailers as we approach the holiday season.

The encouraging findings are led by a significant pickup in momentum for Macy’s (M; +3) and signs of improvement for Target (TGT; +2), Costco (COST; +1) and BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ; +1).

On the entertainment front, once again Amazon (AMZN) shows the most momentum, with 28% saying they’ll be shopping at Amazon for home entertainment and computer networking products over the next 90 days – a 2-pt jump since September and equaling the highest level ever recorded for the online retailer in a ChangeWave survey.

Industry leader Best Buy (BBY; 42%) is also up 2-pts from previously, but continues to remain below its levels of a year ago.

While most overall spending categories remain unchanged and some have even registered a pullback, there is one category in particular that shows improvement:

Restaurant spending is continuing to creep up – with 12% of respondents now saying they’ll spend more over the next 90 days compared to 33% less – a net 4-pt jump since September and our best reading in 15 months.

Overall Consumer Electronics spending has also registered a very slight improvement.

On the downside, Automobile spending has dropped right back to the levels we saw before the hugely popular ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program was announced this past summer.

Lower Consumer Sentiment and Expectations

Counterbalancing the above findings, for the second month in a row we’re finding a worsening in consumer sentiment and expectations.

Well over a third (35%) now thinks the overall direction of the U.S. economy is going to worsen over the next 90 days – a 1-pt drop since September. Only 24% believe it will improve – 3-pts worse than previously.

In a sign of weaker consumer confidence, only 25% say they are More Confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago and 34% say they’re Less Confident – a net 5-pts worse than a month ago.

Other consumer sentiment indicators echo these findings:

• Three-in-ten report they worry A Great Deal (9%) or Quite A Bit (21%) about someone in their family losing their job – 1-pt worse than our September survey.

• Just 6% say they’re very satisfied with the current state of their personal finances, unchanged from the previous survey.

Jean Crumrine co-wrote this article

After four months of little to no change, two recent ChangeWave consumer surveys show clear signs of improvement for the restaurant industry – with Olive Garden (DRI), Red Lobster (DRI), Chipotle (CMG), Maggiano’s (EAT) and Starbucks (SBUX) showing the most momentum.

To start, better than one-in-ten respondents (11%) now say they’ll spend more money at restaurants going forward – 1-pt improved over August.

Another 36% say they'll be spending less, also 1-pt better than previously.

Other positive signs:

• Looking at the past 90 days, 27% of respondents say they've spent More than planned on eating out and only 19% Less than planned – a net 11-pt improvement since May

• The percentage who say they’re Ordering Less Expensive Items on the Menu (26%) has declined 3-pts, as has the percentage who say they've been Skipping Beverages when dining out (29%; down 3-pts)

• And while 35% say they’ve been Eating More Meals at Home over the past 90 days – that’s 2-pts less than previously

Winning and Losing Restaurant Categories

We next asked respondents to tell us which types of restaurants they'll be eating at more or less often over the next 90 days. The one category showing improvement since our May survey was Upscale/ Fine Dining Restaurants (Change in Net Difference Score = +4).

And for the second consecutive survey, the category of Fast Food Restaurants (-4) has experienced the largest decline – evidence that consumers are "trading up" when it comes to dining out.

Individual Restaurant Chains. Here’s a look at the 4 best positioned and 3 worst positioned restaurant chains in terms of where respondents say they’ll spend more vs. less money over the next 90 days:

Coffee Buying Trends. For the second consecutive survey Starbucks (SBUX; +5) has experienced the biggest improvement of any coffee shop or restaurant surveyed. They are clearly a momentum winner at this point of the recovery.

Other Industry Trends

Frequency of Dining Out. A total of 12% say they expect to dine out More Frequently over the next 90 days compared to the previous 90 – and 26% report they’ll dine out Less Frequently. All told, these results are 5-pts less than the previous survey, most likely caused by seasonality factors (i.e., the end of summer vacation).

As a follow-up, we asked those consumers who expect to dine out 'More Frequently' over the next 90 days to tell us why – and 26% say it's because Restaurants are Offering a Better Value (up 8-pts). Another 25% say they have Less Time to Cook at Home (up 5-pts).

In a positive sign for the overall economy, one-in-ten (10%; up 5-pts) say it's because they're Not Trying to Save as Much Money, and 8% (up 3-pts) because they're Less Concerned About Job Security.

Reasons For Dining Out Less Frequently. Saving More Money (36%; down 4-pts) and Reduced Income (32%; down 5-pts) still remain the top reasons given by those who are dining out less frequently, but each have declined since our May survey.

We note that Recent Purchase of Big Ticket Item (8%) has increased by 4-pts since May – another positive sign for the overall economy.

Mike Wrobel co-wrote this article.