Paul Harper

Paul Harper
Contributor since: 2009
my eyes ...
they bleed
GOOG is the real danger here, this may not be too far away, one of the reasons PLCN retains such a high valuation is that everyone is looking for a wave of consolidation in the online travel sector.
Current price will keep away any voracious takeover bids, hence the insiders offloading at what they obviously see as the top.
Look to see a "social" market entry that will hoover up the likes of Tripadvisor / Lastminute.com & others to create a new wave of how to do business in this space.
Plug some Android love into this scenario & off we go.
easy to Google & do some math
A high-level look at insider trading at Priceline Com Inc over the past 12 months. A total of 303,679 shares of Priceline Com Inc stock was sold by insiders, totaling $165,605,633.
Over the same time 12 month time period, no shares of Priceline Com Inc were purchased by company insiders.
time to get off this particular bandwagon
cock & bull ... with a huge portion of the former

cunning, get NFLX into the tickers so schmucks like me can come read .... didnt work, I hate energy stocks ... hah !!!

have a look at this daily chart .... now look at yesterdays trading, bookrunners did not advise their clients that this would fly ??? http://bit.ly/z1JVFK .
Ridiculously over subscribed when compared to 50 & 100 day SMA.
now look at the same chart, using Keltner, as an indicator of where the stock may go technically http://bit.ly/zfqBQ9 , suggests that there is a little more to run on this, with the upper channel suggesting a push onwards to 92(ish)
however, the lower channel has already peaked & turned negative.
Looks as though shorts will get a good opportunity shorting late Monday, as we are looking at a slew of crappy data coming out of Europe, which will hit market sentiment in general.
great article, pretty much underlines my own thoughts regards LinkedIn.
however, as we have seen with other faddy stocks, Web 2.0 is in vogue & the book runners still have plenty to squeeye from the sheeple, so this will continue to rise going forward, although enjoying a number of sharp pull backs from time to time.
great swing trade opportunities with LNKD, if you can get your timing right ... slow, slow, quick, quick, slow
Baidu is looking at building out its own mobile OS, probably based on Android (similar to China Mobile), also with iPhone 4s being cleared on the market, mobile internet & hence search useage will triple in the next 18 months.
Premature on calling it short ... my Magic 8 ball (courtesy of stockcharts) says it can quite easily ride up to 140 with a bit of buying.
It also says that the bottom in current trading atmosphere is around 117

Even in the terribad times of October, it only got down to 105.
Baidu is making a big push into Android, which will in the long term help push its search revenues much higher .... so long term, its a buy ... if you have the cash that is :)
personally can't see VOD making any play into N America ... too expensive & as Dan neatly points out, the network issue is a major one regards GSM / CDMA.
VOD exiting some non-core assets is very much a strengthen the sheets play ... for the moment. They have major issues in India with govt tax case ($2.5Bn) & erstwhile partner Essar is asking for an additional $700k for the last slice of the cake.
I would not be surprised to see VOD making a venture into LatAm ... the Global Director for Consumer used to be the Chief Sales Officer for Vodafone Spain. So why promote a Spanish speaker into such a high profile position.
My gut says LatAm acquisitions in Q4 this year or Q1 2012
in the meantime, I am short VOD, hearing some things from the industry which point to poor performance in FY 2010 & some large write downs to be announced on 17th May.
Edit : In addition, the much vaunted warming of relations between VOD & VZ can be espoused by all & sundry, however, still no sign of a dividend payment coming this year ... $5Bn in free cash flow off the table
continual banging of drum regards corruption in Russia, makes me snigger quietly into my coffee ...
"he who casts the first stone" ...
US institutional corruption is rife & the West has learned nothing from the Enron, WorldCom etc institutional scandals of the early 00s
Pirogi ... Polish for sausage would be a more apt monicker for the author.
Thanks for a very balanced & well written piece, pleasant change to see someone writing in a more positive light regards Russia.
Sure it has it's problems, but doing business there is becoming much easier & much more transparent than some of the Seeking Alpha contributors would lead people to believe.
Hope to see a follow up article from you on RSXJ once it gets some wind under it's wings
ArcelorMittal is based in Luxembourg .... but as any fule know, is actually controlled by Lakshi Mittal & his family out of India
and as usual ... we only talk about one country as the US market is a never ending supply of people looking to get their hands on high end gadgets ?
pfffft
one additional factor, the iOS stats reflect both iPod Touch & iPhone figures, so are a little skewed. Currently looking to find a more lock down mobile rather than wireless figure for this.
Understand that this site is very US centric, however the author has a very pertinent point ... there are 1.5Bn users of mobile phones globally, the US makes up around 8% of this market ... food for thought
Also, from a carrier perspective, the challenge is to provide rich services to customers, whilst trying to compete with on-deck applications pushed by the OEM ... or in the extreme case of Apple a complete wall garden ecosystem ... kudos to Apple for delivering this strategy, but outside of developed markets, it's not currently viable.
So taking that view, it is important to look at a macro level rather than the skewed market that is North America, there are some pretty interesting figures out there if you care to look. Which OS drives the most mobile data traffic (& by default data revenues) is a key factor when looking at telecoms ... some answers here >
royal.pingdom.com/2010.../
please note, have no holdings in any hardware stock & not affiliated to above website.
happy reading
who is buying off this productivity ?
personally, am pretty sceptical that the "official" figures are the actual figures ...
Interesting to note that the TEF play into Brazil will almost certainly provide an opportunity for VOD to enter the LatAm market.
if you have access to BBC iPlayer Felix, there was a very amusing & informative session from the Doha Debates series over the weekend ... "This house contends that Dubai is not a good idea" ....
kudos to Google ... a much more admirable stance than the shysters at Yahoo! when faced with a similar issue a few years back. If I remember correctly, they rolled over & gave details of accounts to PRC security, resulting in human rights activists being jailed for not insignificant amounts of time.
Principles cost money ... (ask any divorce lawyer) & Google may end up paying a greater cost than losing 18% market share of search. Lets not forget that China Mobile is running a lot of services, including Mobile Market on Android, the political infighting could see this part of Google's business being detrimentally affected.
perhaps I should move as I near my dotage .....
cooling off is inevitable & as you say will make for some great purchases going forward.
a rising middle class & a growing tech infrastructure, outside of the commodity & energy plays make this a long term prospect for a lot of people (or at least should).
interesting article & I must admit to leaning towards your viewpoint. As a perma bear, it has been lean pickings on US equities for the last 12 months, but I have a feeling that any prolonged drop off in Dow Jones will see the momentum picking up as retail investors are a lot more risk adverse after the last 18 months.
quick question for you regards precious metals & platinum in particular, do you see this as an area that would provide a good hedge over the next 3 months ?
Slovakia ? can assure you, we are doing fine compared to our neighbours; Czech Rep, Hungary, Ukraine are all much further ahead in the cap in hand queue than SK.
Its called "cushioning" via the €
if I had to pick one of your choices, it will certainly have to be Mobile Transactions or m-payments.
Looking at the major players, they are all poised to enter or are already operating in Emerging Markets & this is where the real desire for such services are.
VOD with m-pesa which it will push through from its Safaricom success into India via Essar & potentially into China via China Mobile : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Current mobile "dog" NOK, who will be leveraging their huge market share in these areas via their Ovi platform in partnership with Obopay : www.obopay.com/consume....
others to watch : Visa / Verifone
if you want to read up a little on the sector, you can do worse than starting here : www.mobilepaymentsworl.../
in brief, Chinese Telecoms :
mobile : CHL
broadband : CHA
erm ... that is all
great news, am liking Van Eck more & more at the moment, they are coming up with some very interesting offerings.
Small Caps are definitely attractive in the mid-long term, BRF has been very kind to me & I have a ling term position in the China small cap HAO .. that one has taken off with the Chinext bringing a lot of liquidity into the market.
Back to LatAm, there are some interesting things coming, with the Colombian Bourse looking to launch a global Colombia ETF & also with the move towards an integration of Colombia/Peru/Chile exchanges into an OMX style platform.
Bets placed
doubt it ... conferencing is a very crowded market these days, so my take is Panasonic will struggle against US sector leaders (by market share)
Asian Tiger Cub imo, like Maverick have it as a long & will be holding in for some time.
Interestingly, Vietnam is now outsourcing to Laos & Cambodia & is also invetsing very heavily in natural resources in those two countries as well.
so .. don't invest in Emerging Markets based on a single ETF that has exposure to 25 companies traded in Hong Kong ....
errr nope
have been a follower of MELI for quite some time, always good to see updates
best comment I've read on SA this week ... nice one
On Dec 17 08:46 AM User 509949 wrote:
> Whether you agree or not, the consumers win. Competition is good
> and Google operating system will be a worthy competitor. The bar
> is raised.