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  <channel>
    <title>Paul Harper's Instablog</title>
    <description>Having spent a fair amount of time in the international telecom market, I have developed a taste for Emerging Markets. 

My interests tend to be focussed on telecoms, energy &amp; commodity stocks (mostly ADRs) &amp; country sector ETFs</description>
    <author>
      <name>Paul Harper</name>
    </author>
    <link>http://seekingalpha.com</link>
    <item>
      <title>Vodafone divests SFR stake for &#8364;7.5Bn</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/160545-vodafone-divests-sfr-stake-for-7-5bn?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">160545</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<div>$VOD sells SFR stake been on the cards for some time&amp; is already priced in (imho). Levy has been trying to buy Voda &nbsp;out for 3 years.<br><br>Plenty of talk but no show on dividend from $VZ ... &euro;5.5Bn in free cash not realising this year.<br>&nbsp;</div><div>Look for them to exit Poland next (Polkomtel), which would realise circa &euro;800k.</div><div>they need to invest significantly in network in India &amp; Africa to keep the momentum going in wholly owned subsidiaries.<br><br>Lots of continous chatter regards the Indian (Essar) accumulation, but only more pain to come :<br><br><span>&ldquo;We have received feedback from many foreign investors that the growing unpredictability in India&rsquo;s tax policies creates unquantifiable risks in investment planning,&rdquo; the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, the European Commission and four other countries wrote in a letter to India&rsquo;s finance minister. &ldquo;We are concerned that this uncertainty could affect the confidence of those thinking of investing in the Indian market, who may seek an alternative destination for FDI.&rdquo;</span></div><div>Have a look at Vodacom (African holdings), &nbsp; VOD &nbsp;acquired a full blown network in South Africa, but the international arm (sub-Saharan Africa) saw 50% of revenues being ploughed into CAPEX. This will continue.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><a target='_blank' href='http://vodacom.com/pdf/annual_reports/ar_2010.pdf' rel="nofollow">vodacom.com/pdf/annual_reports/ar_2010.pdf</a><br><br>no positions, but if I was liquid enough, would short the hell out of them.</div>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2011 05:27:29 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<div>$VOD sells SFR stake been on the cards for some time&amp; is already priced in (imho). Levy has been trying to buy Voda &nbsp;out for 3 years.<br><br>Plenty of talk but no show on dividend from $VZ ... &euro;5.5Bn in free cash not realising this year.<br>&nbsp;</div><div>Look for them to exit Poland next (Polkomtel), which would realise circa &euro;800k.</div><div>they need to invest significantly in network in India &amp; Africa to keep the momentum going in wholly owned subsidiaries.<br><br>Lots of continous chatter regards the Indian (Essar) accumulation, but only more pain to come :<br><br><span>&ldquo;We have received feedback from many foreign investors that the growing unpredictability in India&rsquo;s tax policies creates unquantifiable risks in investment planning,&rdquo; the ambassadors of the United States, Britain, the European Commission and four other countries wrote in a letter to India&rsquo;s finance minister. &ldquo;We are concerned that this uncertainty could affect the confidence of those thinking of investing in the Indian market, who may seek an alternative destination for FDI.&rdquo;</span></div><div>Have a look at Vodacom (African holdings), &nbsp; VOD &nbsp;acquired a full blown network in South Africa, but the international arm (sub-Saharan Africa) saw 50% of revenues being ploughed into CAPEX. This will continue.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div><a target='_blank' href='http://vodacom.com/pdf/annual_reports/ar_2010.pdf' rel="nofollow">vodacom.com/pdf/annual_reports/ar_2010.pdf</a><br><br>no positions, but if I was liquid enough, would short the hell out of them.</div>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vod/instablogs">vod</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vz/instablogs">vz</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Ford looks for carnival in Brazil </title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/37858-ford-looks-for-carnival-in-brazil?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">37858</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Ford Motor Company has announced a 5 year plan to  finance expansion&nbsp;into the growing Brazilian market.</strong> <p>The plan includes boosting the capacity of&nbsp;it&rsquo;s existing&nbsp;Camacari facility, which manufactures&nbsp;the Fiesta small car&nbsp;&amp; also upgrading &amp;&nbsp;modernizing the Troller plant that builds utility vehicles, said Jennifer Flake, a spokeswoman, Ford will also&nbsp;invest in infrastructure to bring&nbsp;new models for Brazil, she said.</p> <p>The auto industry in Brazil, South America&rsquo;s largest economy, is headed for record sales this year, the country&rsquo;s automakers association said on Oct. 7. Ford ranks fourth in Brazil, behind Fiat SpA, Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co.</p> <p>&ldquo;Ford understands the importance of Brazil and Argentina and they continue to invest in those markets,&rdquo; Michael Robinet, an analyst at consulting firm CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan, said in an interview. &ldquo;Every automaker is taking Brazil seriously and they should, because it&rsquo;s a market with an expanding middle class.&rdquo;</p> <p>The Camacari factory, in Bahia, northeastern Brazil, will be able to build 300,000 cars annually after the expansion, an increase from 250,000 now, Marcos de Oliveira, chief executive officer of Ford&rsquo;s Brazilian unit, said Monday.</p> <p>&ldquo;This is a very large investment for Ford,&rdquo; Mark Fields, Ford&rsquo;s president for the Americas, told reporters at the announcement in Brazil. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re investing because we want to continue to grow and to improve our competitiveness.&rdquo;</p> <p>Ford has sold 298,134 vehicles in Brazil this year, giving it 9.9% of the market, CSM said. That share is down from 10.2% in 2007 and is less than half of GM&rsquo;s 20.3%, the firm said.</p> <p>Third-quarter pre-tax profit in South America declined 49% to 247 million USD as revenue dropped 22% to 2.1 billion USD, Ford said on Nov. 2. The automaker blamed &ldquo;unfavourable&rdquo; currency-exchange rates in Brazil and Argentina.</p><a href="http://myemergingvoice.com/blog/wp-trackback.php?p=2249" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Trackback</a><br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:46:07 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Ford Motor Company has announced a 5 year plan to  finance expansion&nbsp;into the growing Brazilian market.</strong> <p>The plan includes boosting the capacity of&nbsp;it&rsquo;s existing&nbsp;Camacari facility, which manufactures&nbsp;the Fiesta small car&nbsp;&amp; also upgrading &amp;&nbsp;modernizing the Troller plant that builds utility vehicles, said Jennifer Flake, a spokeswoman, Ford will also&nbsp;invest in infrastructure to bring&nbsp;new models for Brazil, she said.</p> <p>The auto industry in Brazil, South America&rsquo;s largest economy, is headed for record sales this year, the country&rsquo;s automakers association said on Oct. 7. Ford ranks fourth in Brazil, behind Fiat SpA, Volkswagen AG and General Motors Co.</p> <p>&ldquo;Ford understands the importance of Brazil and Argentina and they continue to invest in those markets,&rdquo; Michael Robinet, an analyst at consulting firm CSM Worldwide in Northville, Michigan, said in an interview. &ldquo;Every automaker is taking Brazil seriously and they should, because it&rsquo;s a market with an expanding middle class.&rdquo;</p> <p>The Camacari factory, in Bahia, northeastern Brazil, will be able to build 300,000 cars annually after the expansion, an increase from 250,000 now, Marcos de Oliveira, chief executive officer of Ford&rsquo;s Brazilian unit, said Monday.</p> <p>&ldquo;This is a very large investment for Ford,&rdquo; Mark Fields, Ford&rsquo;s president for the Americas, told reporters at the announcement in Brazil. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re investing because we want to continue to grow and to improve our competitiveness.&rdquo;</p> <p>Ford has sold 298,134 vehicles in Brazil this year, giving it 9.9% of the market, CSM said. That share is down from 10.2% in 2007 and is less than half of GM&rsquo;s 20.3%, the firm said.</p> <p>Third-quarter pre-tax profit in South America declined 49% to 247 million USD as revenue dropped 22% to 2.1 billion USD, Ford said on Nov. 2. The automaker blamed &ldquo;unfavourable&rdquo; currency-exchange rates in Brazil and Argentina.</p><a href="http://myemergingvoice.com/blog/wp-trackback.php?p=2249" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Trackback</a><br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/f/instablogs">f</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Brazil">Brazil</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/automotive">automotive</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>China &#8211; Russia make moves on Mongolian uranium deposits</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/37775-china-russia-make-moves-on-mongolian-uranium-deposits?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">37775</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Since the opening up in the mid-1990s, uranium exploration in Mongolia by international companies has not been&nbsp; subject to any clear national policy or close regulation. </strong> <p>In the last few years, however, the Government has sought to exercise more control over the whole mining sector and earlier this year it set up MonAtom to undertake uranium exploration and mining on behalf of the state, as well as to pursue nuclear energy proposals. It will hold the state&rsquo;s equity in uranium and nuclear ventures, under the <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0CAsQFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iaea.org%2Finisnkm%2Fnkm%2Fws%2Fcountries%2Fmongolia.html&amp;rct=j&amp;q=Mongolian+Nuclear+Energy+Agency&amp;ei=S8feSvDjE4f5_AbcsPDPAg&amp;usg=AFQjCNEEmaY-GAHYbJViq6mOkt8WT3htSw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mongolian Nuclear Energy Agency</a>.</p> <p><span>In mid-July, after consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Parliament passed a Nuclear Energy Law to regulate the exploration and mining of uranium and give the state a greater degree of ownership and control of those resources. Along with this the Government set up <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=2&amp;ved=0CA0QFjAB&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wise-uranium.org%2Fupasi.html&amp;rct=j&amp;q=Dornod+Uran&amp;ei=iMfeSs20FdLK_gal9fDPAg&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTX7YF1pQaBLqYojezPvdHyEb8eA" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dornod Uran</a>, a joint venture company between MonAtom and Russia&rsquo;s ARMZ to develop two uranium mines in Mongolia &mdash; Dornod and nearby Mardai. A Japanese partner, evidently Marubeni, is also expected to be later involved in the work of this joint venture.</span></p> <p><span>The development is of particular interest to Russia due to its proximity to the Priargunsky operations, allowing possible creation of a &lsquo;single infrastructure. At least until mid-August, Canadian based <a href="http://www.khanresources.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>Khan Resources</span></a> owned a 69% share in the Dornod project, mostly through its 58% subsidiary Central Asian Uranium (CAUC). The balance of CAUC, which holds Mongolia&rsquo;s only <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">uranium mining</a> license, was owned by MonAtom and ARMZ, each with 21%.</span></p> <p><span>A definitive feasibility study released in March 2009 showed that the $333 million project was sound, on the basis of 24,780 tons of indicated resources, including 20,340 tons of probable reserves. Annual production of 1,150 tons over 15 years from 2012 was envisaged.</span></p> <p><span>However, the Nuclear Energy Agency has announced that the joint venture of MonAtom with ARMZ will develop the project to annually produce about 2000 tons. Khan is uncertain where it stands, having apparently been dispossessed as it sought to negotiate an investment agreement with the Government.</span></p> <p><span>Gurvanbulag is another deposit, about 30 km away, which has been held by the Canadian Western Prospector Group. This March the company agreed to a $25 million takeover by China&rsquo;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_National_Nuclear_Corporation" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CNNC International</a>, a 74% subsidiary of CNNC Overseas Uranium Holding and through it, of SinoU. MonAtom appears to be positive about this development.</span></p><br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:18:38 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<strong>Since the opening up in the mid-1990s, uranium exploration in Mongolia by international companies has not been&nbsp; subject to any clear national policy or close regulation. </strong> <p>In the last few years, however, the Government has sought to exercise more control over the whole mining sector and earlier this year it set up MonAtom to undertake uranium exploration and mining on behalf of the state, as well as to pursue nuclear energy proposals. It will hold the state&rsquo;s equity in uranium and nuclear ventures, under the <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=1&amp;ved=0CAsQFjAA&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iaea.org%2Finisnkm%2Fnkm%2Fws%2Fcountries%2Fmongolia.html&amp;rct=j&amp;q=Mongolian+Nuclear+Energy+Agency&amp;ei=S8feSvDjE4f5_AbcsPDPAg&amp;usg=AFQjCNEEmaY-GAHYbJViq6mOkt8WT3htSw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mongolian Nuclear Energy Agency</a>.</p> <p><span>In mid-July, after consultation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Parliament passed a Nuclear Energy Law to regulate the exploration and mining of uranium and give the state a greater degree of ownership and control of those resources. Along with this the Government set up <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=2&amp;ved=0CA0QFjAB&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wise-uranium.org%2Fupasi.html&amp;rct=j&amp;q=Dornod+Uran&amp;ei=iMfeSs20FdLK_gal9fDPAg&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTX7YF1pQaBLqYojezPvdHyEb8eA" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Dornod Uran</a>, a joint venture company between MonAtom and Russia&rsquo;s ARMZ to develop two uranium mines in Mongolia &mdash; Dornod and nearby Mardai. A Japanese partner, evidently Marubeni, is also expected to be later involved in the work of this joint venture.</span></p> <p><span>The development is of particular interest to Russia due to its proximity to the Priargunsky operations, allowing possible creation of a &lsquo;single infrastructure. At least until mid-August, Canadian based <a href="http://www.khanresources.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><span>Khan Resources</span></a> owned a 69% share in the Dornod project, mostly through its 58% subsidiary Central Asian Uranium (CAUC). The balance of CAUC, which holds Mongolia&rsquo;s only <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">uranium mining</a> license, was owned by MonAtom and ARMZ, each with 21%.</span></p> <p><span>A definitive feasibility study released in March 2009 showed that the $333 million project was sound, on the basis of 24,780 tons of indicated resources, including 20,340 tons of probable reserves. Annual production of 1,150 tons over 15 years from 2012 was envisaged.</span></p> <p><span>However, the Nuclear Energy Agency has announced that the joint venture of MonAtom with ARMZ will develop the project to annually produce about 2000 tons. Khan is uncertain where it stands, having apparently been dispossessed as it sought to negotiate an investment agreement with the Government.</span></p> <p><span>Gurvanbulag is another deposit, about 30 km away, which has been held by the Canadian Western Prospector Group. This March the company agreed to a $25 million takeover by China&rsquo;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_National_Nuclear_Corporation" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CNNC International</a>, a 74% subsidiary of CNNC Overseas Uranium Holding and through it, of SinoU. MonAtom appears to be positive about this development.</span></p><br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/uraniuam">uraniuam</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Mongolia">Mongolia</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/emerging markets">emerging markets</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Kudrin Upbeat on oil, should we upbeat on Market Vectos RSX ?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/26450-kudrin-upbeat-on-oil-should-we-upbeat-on-market-vectos-rsx?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">26450</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[<p>Russia&nbsp;has been hard hit&nbsp;by the current economic crisis &amp; especially by the decline in oil prices this year.&nbsp;According to Economics Ministry data, Russia's GDP declined by 9.3% in July 2009 year-on-year and 10.2% in the first seven months of the year. Energy products, including crude oil&nbsp;&amp; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">natural gas</a>, accounted for 65.5% of exports in the first half, while metals made up 12.1%.</p> <p>According to Finance Minister, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Kudrin" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Alexei Kudrin</a>, the <span>Russian economy</span> will be on the rise again as early as in the third quarter of 2009.</p> <p>&quot;We still do not have the final data for the second quarter, but we expect Russia's economy to grow in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, and the third quarter will mark the end of recession,&quot; Kudrin told a news conference whilst in London attending the G20 summit</p> <p>Russia has recently raised forecasts for the price of&nbsp;oil and is now looking at revising its views on gross domestic product (GDP), Kudrin said last week. The Economy Ministry now sees Urals oil averaging $57 a barrel this year, up from the $54 forecast previously &amp; the average price of crude is&nbsp;projected to increase gradually to $58 in 2010, $59 in 2011 and $60 in 2012.</p> <p>With 40% of&nbsp; the Market Vectors Russia <span>ETF</span> Trust (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARSX" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">NYSE:RSX</a>) predicated on energy, it is plain that energy prices need to remain stable if not advance in the light of the news above, if it is to become more attractive to risk averse investors. Trading at $23.54 off of a 52 month low of $10.34, it is still a long way off of its high of $40.75.</p><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/7/304031-125232321792192-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/7/304031-125232321792192-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p>Standard &amp; Poors retained it's BBB rating on Russia last Thursday, which would seem to allay some fears, as it was widely expected that the rate would be cut. The ratings agency also noted that by the end of 2012, with net debt levels at 14% of GDP, Russia's public balance sheet remains superior to the BBB rating median of 42% of GDP.</p> <p>The government is also now tapping its $85.7 billion Reserve Fund&nbsp;&amp; $90.7 billion National Wellbeing fund, which were built on windfall oil revenues, to pay for an &ldquo;anti-crisis&rdquo; program that is worth about 2.5 trillion rubles ($79 billion).</p> <p>Personally, I am positive on Russia long term &amp; feel that this <a href="http://www.mystockvoice.com/etf/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ETF</a> offers value for a long term portfolio, year to date, it has returned 75.4% &amp; I reckon it has further to go. Lately it has been trading in a choppy pattern &amp; has suffered a significant retrace, but with S&amp;P confirming it's rating, I'll be looking closely at the price of crude &amp; natural gas over the next month or so, any gain there &amp; I'll be adding with an expectation of an additional 25% gain this year.<br><br>Author holds a long position in RSX</p><br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2009 07:41:17 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p>Russia&nbsp;has been hard hit&nbsp;by the current economic crisis &amp; especially by the decline in oil prices this year.&nbsp;According to Economics Ministry data, Russia's GDP declined by 9.3% in July 2009 year-on-year and 10.2% in the first seven months of the year. Energy products, including crude oil&nbsp;&amp; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">natural gas</a>, accounted for 65.5% of exports in the first half, while metals made up 12.1%.</p> <p>According to Finance Minister, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Kudrin" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Alexei Kudrin</a>, the <span>Russian economy</span> will be on the rise again as early as in the third quarter of 2009.</p> <p>&quot;We still do not have the final data for the second quarter, but we expect Russia's economy to grow in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, and the third quarter will mark the end of recession,&quot; Kudrin told a news conference whilst in London attending the G20 summit</p> <p>Russia has recently raised forecasts for the price of&nbsp;oil and is now looking at revising its views on gross domestic product (GDP), Kudrin said last week. The Economy Ministry now sees Urals oil averaging $57 a barrel this year, up from the $54 forecast previously &amp; the average price of crude is&nbsp;projected to increase gradually to $58 in 2010, $59 in 2011 and $60 in 2012.</p> <p>With 40% of&nbsp; the Market Vectors Russia <span>ETF</span> Trust (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ARSX" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">NYSE:RSX</a>) predicated on energy, it is plain that energy prices need to remain stable if not advance in the light of the news above, if it is to become more attractive to risk averse investors. Trading at $23.54 off of a 52 month low of $10.34, it is still a long way off of its high of $40.75.</p><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/7/304031-125232321792192-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/9/7/304031-125232321792192-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p>Standard &amp; Poors retained it's BBB rating on Russia last Thursday, which would seem to allay some fears, as it was widely expected that the rate would be cut. The ratings agency also noted that by the end of 2012, with net debt levels at 14% of GDP, Russia's public balance sheet remains superior to the BBB rating median of 42% of GDP.</p> <p>The government is also now tapping its $85.7 billion Reserve Fund&nbsp;&amp; $90.7 billion National Wellbeing fund, which were built on windfall oil revenues, to pay for an &ldquo;anti-crisis&rdquo; program that is worth about 2.5 trillion rubles ($79 billion).</p> <p>Personally, I am positive on Russia long term &amp; feel that this <a href="http://www.mystockvoice.com/etf/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ETF</a> offers value for a long term portfolio, year to date, it has returned 75.4% &amp; I reckon it has further to go. Lately it has been trading in a choppy pattern &amp; has suffered a significant retrace, but with S&amp;P confirming it's rating, I'll be looking closely at the price of crude &amp; natural gas over the next month or so, any gain there &amp; I'll be adding with an expectation of an additional 25% gain this year.<br><br>Author holds a long position in RSX</p><br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rsx/instablogs">rsx</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Russia">Russia</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/ETF">ETF</category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Hedged In on SDS, FXI &amp; FXP as bears wake up early</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/25382-hedged-in-on-sds-fxi-fxp-as-bears-wake-up-early?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">25382</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[Normally at this time of year, bears are getting their stores in &amp; looking at hibernation, but the recent market has turned that around, with bears dozing most of the summer &amp; now waking up &amp; looking hungry. <p>Followers of our <a href="http://twitter.com/MyStockVoice" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a> account, will know that we have been taking a good look at China over the past 10 trading days &amp; have a very bearish outlook on China&nbsp;going into the 3rd Quarter &amp; by default on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">S&amp;P 500</a>.&nbsp;Signals have been coming for a while with the BDI declining at an alarming rate from it&rsquo;s June highs, flagging up the possibility that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">China&rsquo;s  economy</a> &amp; associated infrastructure drive are starting to run out of  steam.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171923189024-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171923189024-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p> Having looked at three well traded <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ETFs</a> ,&nbsp;we are placing&nbsp;a trade that is&nbsp;mixing it up a little, SDS :Ultra Short S&amp;P 500, FXI :iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index &amp; FXP ProShares UltraSh FTSE/Xinhua China 25. The following chart shows the last 5 trading days of SPY, FXI &amp; FXP. As can be seen, there was a clear signal on Tuesday last, that there was a divergence in FXI / FXP, with the S&amp;P 500 mainly trading sideways.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171684130682-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171684130682-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Now using the Morgan Stanley A Fund CAF as a sentiment  monitor for the Shanghai market over the same period against SPY (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASPY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">SPY</a>), it would seem that there has been some pretty good correlation over the last 6 months of trading. For me CAF is one of the best tickers to use for real sentiment, as it trades in China A Shares, whilst FXI (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=fxi" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FXI</a>) is predicated on 25 stocks traded on the  Hong Kong market (mostly <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ADRs</a>). From looking at the charts, it would appear that  CAF (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CAF</a>) actually front runs FXI by a two to three day period &amp; this has helped me immensely in trading Chinese ADRs this summer. At the same time, SPY has followed the FXI trend reasonably faithfully for the last&nbsp;3 months, until August 17th, when FXI&nbsp;began to dip.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171689199786-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171689199786-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p>So our feeling is that with China declining at such a  rapid rate, Long FXP&nbsp; (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFXP" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FXP</a>) short FXI is a no brainer &amp; we are looking to make some good returns over the next few weeks, we are also adding in a soupcon of SDS for interest &amp; to confirm our bearish sentiment on the S&amp;P 500. With a ratio of 2:1:1 we feel that this is a well hedged play, with a good upside potential.</p> <p>We are looking to hold this trade for a minimum 10 day  period &amp; I have set this trade up on <a href="http://www.kaching.com/kaching#portfolio/61242/holdings" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">kaChing.com</a> in our test account in order to track it. The idea being that we can give a visual on the performance of the trade &amp;&nbsp;also&nbsp; a good term of reference when we close out the positions &amp; reblog.<br><br>At time of writing, no position in any stock mentioned</p><br><br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 07:11:48 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[Normally at this time of year, bears are getting their stores in &amp; looking at hibernation, but the recent market has turned that around, with bears dozing most of the summer &amp; now waking up &amp; looking hungry. <p>Followers of our <a href="http://twitter.com/MyStockVoice" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a> account, will know that we have been taking a good look at China over the past 10 trading days &amp; have a very bearish outlook on China&nbsp;going into the 3rd Quarter &amp; by default on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">S&amp;P 500</a>.&nbsp;Signals have been coming for a while with the BDI declining at an alarming rate from it&rsquo;s June highs, flagging up the possibility that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">China&rsquo;s  economy</a> &amp; associated infrastructure drive are starting to run out of  steam.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171923189024-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171923189024-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a></p> Having looked at three well traded <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exchange-traded_fund" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ETFs</a> ,&nbsp;we are placing&nbsp;a trade that is&nbsp;mixing it up a little, SDS :Ultra Short S&amp;P 500, FXI :iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index &amp; FXP ProShares UltraSh FTSE/Xinhua China 25. The following chart shows the last 5 trading days of SPY, FXI &amp; FXP. As can be seen, there was a clear signal on Tuesday last, that there was a divergence in FXI / FXP, with the S&amp;P 500 mainly trading sideways.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171684130682-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171684130682-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br>Now using the Morgan Stanley A Fund CAF as a sentiment  monitor for the Shanghai market over the same period against SPY (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ASPY" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">SPY</a>), it would seem that there has been some pretty good correlation over the last 6 months of trading. For me CAF is one of the best tickers to use for real sentiment, as it trades in China A Shares, whilst FXI (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=fxi" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FXI</a>) is predicated on 25 stocks traded on the  Hong Kong market (mostly <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Depositary_Receipt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">ADRs</a>). From looking at the charts, it would appear that  CAF (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACAF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">CAF</a>) actually front runs FXI by a two to three day period &amp; this has helped me immensely in trading Chinese ADRs this summer. At the same time, SPY has followed the FXI trend reasonably faithfully for the last&nbsp;3 months, until August 17th, when FXI&nbsp;began to dip.<br><br><a href="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171689199786-Paul-Harper_origin.png" rel="lightbox" rel="nofollow"><img src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/8/31/304031-125171689199786-Paul-Harper.png" hspace="6" vspace="6"  /></a><br><br><p>So our feeling is that with China declining at such a  rapid rate, Long FXP&nbsp; (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFXP" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">FXP</a>) short FXI is a no brainer &amp; we are looking to make some good returns over the next few weeks, we are also adding in a soupcon of SDS for interest &amp; to confirm our bearish sentiment on the S&amp;P 500. With a ratio of 2:1:1 we feel that this is a well hedged play, with a good upside potential.</p> <p>We are looking to hold this trade for a minimum 10 day  period &amp; I have set this trade up on <a href="http://www.kaching.com/kaching#portfolio/61242/holdings" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">kaChing.com</a> in our test account in order to track it. The idea being that we can give a visual on the performance of the trade &amp;&nbsp;also&nbsp; a good term of reference when we close out the positions &amp; reblog.<br><br>At time of writing, no position in any stock mentioned</p><br><br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/spy/instablogs">spy</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/sds/instablogs">sds</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/caf/instablogs">caf</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fxi/instablogs">fxi</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/fxp/instablogs">fxp</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/Emerging Markets ETF">Emerging Markets ETF</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/China">China</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/short ideas ">short ideas </category>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>PALM about to hit the rails ?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/304031-paul-harper/22952-palm-about-to-hit-the-rails?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">22952</guid>
      <content>
        <![CDATA[From IT Pro Portal : <a href="http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/8/14/palm-pre-sales-tumble-after-3gs-release/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/8/14/palm-pre-sales-tumble-after-3gs-release/</a><br><br><br><span><span><br></span></span>Basically, not in good shape as sales of Pre fall dramatically.<br>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Sun, 16 Aug 2009 04:23:25 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[From IT Pro Portal : <a href="http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/8/14/palm-pre-sales-tumble-after-3gs-release/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">http://www.itproportal.com/portal/news/article/2009/8/14/palm-pre-sales-tumble-after-3gs-release/</a><br><br><br><span><span><br></span></span>Basically, not in good shape as sales of Pre fall dramatically.<br>]]>
      </description>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/palm/instablogs">palm</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/aapl/instablogs">aapl</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/mobile">mobile</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/telecoms">telecoms</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/short ideas">short ideas</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/smartphones">smartphones</category>
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