Paul J. Lamont

How U.S. Investors Can Play the Carry Trade

Felix, you may have timed it perfectly. The unwinding of the carry trade could occur within the next few days. Let's see how much damage the rise in the U.S. Dollar does to all these leveraged carry trade speculators.

Why the Fed Can't Prevent a Deflationary Depression

The Fed will not stop trying to reinflate. Why would it? However the money multiplier is showing us that for every $1 the Fed prints, the money supply only expands 95 cents. The Fed printing is behind the curve. Bankers can destroy the money supply faster. That is deflation.

The debt will still be there after all the deleveraging is said and done. These long term debts will hinder our economy for a long time.

Even if the Fed prints money and hands it out, consumers will pay off debt (reducing money supply) or deposit it with bankers, who will hoard it in their reserves (reducing money supply). No one can prevent systemic fearful hoarding.



On Feb 05 07:58 AM SW Richmond wrote:

> Let us not ever confuse 'it is not working' with 'and so we will
> stop trying'. Is it so difficult to think beyond one step ahead?
>
>
> Maybe I can get this author to explain why they will stop trying
> to reflate? In the face of vastly reduced tax revenues, many US
> states are beginning to flirt with BK. States cannot print. The
> US is similarly faced with both mounting debt (and the mounting debt
> service to go along with it) and reduced tax revenues.
>
> Someone please offer me a rational explanation as to why this situation
> will be allowed to continue, why at some point the central banks
> and treasuries of the world will say 'it's not working, so screw
> it' and how it will be resolved in a deflationary environment.
>
>
> What will happen to the debt?
>
> How will it be paid?
>
> If it is not paid, what happens to currencies in national defaults?
>
>
> If you believe there will be a deflationary spiral and still no default,
> how will the defaults be avoided? Where will money come from to
> service debt?
>
> I await this explanation with baited breath.

What Does a Bear Market Rally Look Like?

Yes, thanks. The free snippet of the Report can also be found on SA.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

What Does a Bear Market Rally Look Like?

This is indeed a great chart. In fact, half of this post is so good it could have only come directly from Lamont Trading Advisors' Investment Analysis Report.

If you are going to copy us, at least quote us.

Crash Opportunities: Part I

Like all bull markets, there are many 'reasons' for a rise. The high-cost-cull also supports our argument for higher prices.

Bad Time To Invest In Mainland China?

When Chinese newspapers report "floods of newbies lining up to buy the market", it is usually the end of the current bull run. The Chinese markets are overheated, look out below.

Seven Reasons Why It's Time To Sell

There has been widespread pessimism recently towards the U.S. Dollar. So as contrarians, we expect a significant rally for 2007. When sentiment levels become high for the dollar, we will position into currencies with less risk.

Seven Reasons Why It's Time To Sell

On May 3rd, 2006, optimism towards the S&P500 was reaching the year 2000 levels according to the MBH Commodities' Daily Sentiment Index. This led to our recommendation. It did result in an 8.5% decline. Yes the market bottomed and rebounded for six months. And now optimism is significantly greater than it was in 2000, even at a 19 year high, as the article states. This is occurring as the S&P500 is not even making new highs. Did we foresee that investors could be more optimistic than they were towards the NASDAQ during the 2000 mania? No. But our clients understand that the long term risk is clearly to the downside. Good luck with your investments.