Paul Killinger

Lead Acid Batteries: How Cheap Beat Cool at Google

Pardon me if I try to simplify this as regards the current status of real world automotive technology, but doesn't that essentially leave us with the Prius and the Fit?

Lithium-ion Batteries: 9 Years of Price Stagnation

As regards investing, this may give a bump to Ford and the remaining viable automotive suppliers.

Lithium-ion Batteries: 9 Years of Price Stagnation

On the subject of legislation, it is worthwhile to note there are bills NOW coming up for votes on both sides of Congress that would deeply subsidize consumer purchases of new high mileage vehicles (similar to the current mortgage subsidies for homebuyers) built in the U.S. Since there are few true EV's for sale yet, their passage could result in millions of more ICE's plying our roads for the next decade or longer. It appears the necessity of saving our nation's existing auto industry today is pre-empting our President's desire to wean us off foreign owned energy resources at some point in the future.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

There are a lot of good things you can achieve while you're in power if you're modestly judicious in going about it. Unfortunately, redesigning our nation's transportation regime isn't one of them.

So forget that. Take on the others that are desirable and doable. And, believe me, there are plenty of them to occupy your time and energy.

Meanwhile, let the marketplace sort out the best way to fuel our vehicles and power our electric grid. Whether you like it or not, it's going to anyway.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

Li-ion works adequately (not superbly) in powering my cell phone and laptop. So keep the improvements coming. They'll be useful for these technologies.

But as for transport and the electric grid, li-ion is a relatively unproven newcomer with a long way to go to achieve commercial viablity (if, indeed, it ever does). Meanwhile, we have the largest economy in the world to fuel and power, and it CANNOT operate on successfully on batteries.

You guys are going to have me riding my bike and reading by candlelight (or my flashlight) if you're not more expeditious in your thinking. But, fortunately, long before that happens the voters will see through this present inanity.

You'd be wise to consider this in your calculations.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

The silence is deafening whenever li-ion is exposed to the vagaries of the REAL world.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

Well, John, you certainly brought out the li-ion lovers this time, including at least one from China. (I actually envy him and the energy he brings.)

Meanwhile, NGV drivers in UT and OK are paying 85 cents (no more cents symbol on these keyboards- I guess I need to take that up with the Chinese fellow) a gallon (eqivalent) at the pump for CNG as we speak.

Oh, and guess what, guys. NG is an AMERICAN product, unlike oil and lithium. We have a CENTURY of proven reserves (not including methane hydrates, which are CENTURIES more), and it's far CLEANER than the electricity used runs EV's. There are 7 MILLION such vehicles in operation around the globe, and NG can power ALL 250 MILLION vehicles in use on U.S. roads starting TOMORROW if we desire.

Therefore, this entire discussion is the result of POLITICAL THEATER and not economics in the first place. You all won the election, so we're going to spend BILLIONS of dollars in TAXPAYER money investing in li-ion technology for transport, which is simply an exercise in wasting time and money.

After all this nonsense is finally over, America is going to be fueling its transport via LNG (for heavy vehicles) and CNG (for the light ones). Why? Because at the end of the day, common sense is required for individuals, companies and nations to be economically viable in our modern competitive world.

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

henarl,

I didn't want the concept to sound too confusing.

And there are all kinds of solid high yielding stocks around today, not to mention terrific bond yields from going concerns. Really the opportunity of a lifetime. (Which we can use, considering the drubbing we've been through.)

Some investors believe the market is a casino, though. Say BCON triples from .70 to 2.10 (as unlikely as that may sound). Whoopee, they took all kinds of risk for a gain of 1.40 a share.

GE, on the other hand, will come back to the mid-20's or 30 in the not too distant future. (If it doesn't, we've got alot worse problems than we think ahead.) And we get paid 10% to wait. It just makes sense.

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

Let's see, Loren...

If you bought 4 shares of GE a week for a year, you'd have 200 shares. At $15 bucks each, that's $3,000. The dividend's another $300. If the stock doubles in three years, now you've got $6,000 plus $900 in dividends (even if you don't buy anymore). Now $6,900 for a $3,000 investment sounds pretty good to me. In fact, it's a pre-tax return of some 130%, all for $60 a week.

Beats chasing penny stocks, doesn't it?

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

Alright, guys, enough author bashing.

This poster is a straight forward and straight up guy. It's not his fault your investments in this arena are down 30-50%, it's the MARKET'S. Virtually all other investors are in the same boat.

Here are a couple of suggestions for you that you can choose to follow or not at your discretion.

1. If you must invest in such emerging technologies, buy a BASKET of the best stocks. You're as likely to catch the one or two real winners by themselves as you are to cash a winning lottery ticket.

2. Why not look at something more mundane like GE? It sports a 10% dividend and will be in business when all this is over. Moreover, they could buy any of these babies and not move the decimal point on their balance sheet.

3. If you need excitement, invest in gold or oil. They're both dirt cheap right now, so you'll probably double your money in a few years or less.

4. Most of all, be CAREFUL. Your odds of finding the next Microsoft are about 1 in 10,000 or less. So try to be REALISTIC. Happy hunting!

Advanced Nonsense: The Politics of Alternative Energy

To those of you commenting to complain about the brevity or lack thereof of this post, I can only suggest this. Some authors have alot to say, and others quite little. Whether you agree with this knowledgeable gentleman or not is an entirely different question.

Advanced Nonsense: The Politics of Alternative Energy

Jack,

An unusual post. Both fascinating and historically factual.

It reinforces my notion that our automotive (and economic) future resides in the production and conversion of NGV's, if only because there is NO other viable alternative in our present state of technology. We can do this either now or later, but do it we will.

But you've got to quit pulling your punches, sir. (Ha, ha!)

Alternative Energy Storage: It's All About Price vs. Performance

John,

You write such wonderfully organized and interesting articles. You make it a pleasure to follow the development of these important new complex technologies. Thanks again for your efforts.

Having considered the various alternatives to our energy dilemma, my own experience tells me to separate these concepts into two distinct divisions, those designed to assist electric generation and those useful for transport. I believe several of the emerging companies you identify (along with nuclear breakthroughs such as the mini-reactors produced by Hyperion Power) will assist us making the former more economic in coming years.

It is also my belief that various forms of NGV's will replace the use of some considerable amounts of oil (ie. gasoline) in our transportation sector. The main reasons for this thesis are 1) we cannot afford to abandon the 250 million ICE's already in use, 2) alternative fuels we have access to are not economic or 3) environmentally acceptable, 4) we have hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of years of supplies of methanes on hand, and 5) other substitutable alternative fuels (eg. electricity) don't work very well in practice.

Since you mentioned Boone Pickens, he has already signed contracts with Swift Trucking and Wal-Mart to replace their over the road rigs (his company provides the fueling stations) with models powered by LNG. Over time, this will significantly lessen demand for diesel fuel. Moreover, NO forms of EV's are even in the game in the future of this major sector of highway commerce.

CNG fueled vehicles, light trucks and passenger cars, are a somewhat different story. However, as there are already 7 million of them on the road throughout the world, it is only a matter of time until we catch up. GM now converts some gasoline models for free to existing customers in Germany, and conversions of most makes cost $600 US in Brazil. We can't do it here at any price (legally) due to EPA "certifications" that cost equipment manufacturers $200K per model and motor, but that's simply a regulatory roadblock which will be revised one way or another.

Assuming new NGV's are included in the realm of future federal (and state) tax credits, EV's simply can't compete at any but the very highest price points. Like you, Pickens has a saying for this, "The lowest cost energy solution wins every time."

Recent Announcements Will Spark Electric Car Sales

JUST what we need guys, a new consumer tax on gasoline. It is certain to help our failing economy at least as much as EV's.

Only problem I see is there are 250M ICE's in existence here, and ZERO
electrics. If you REALLY want to get off oil, you can convert ALL of them to NGV's. Starting TODAY.

If CA, OR, WA, et al want to kill themselves by mandating EV's, that's fine with me. And IA and other farm states can require e-100 for all I care. Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, I always say.

If this doesn't work (which it won't), at least my money won't be tied up in it. If it does (and I'm wrong), gas should stabilize at around $1.50. I can live with that, too.

But just remember, NG (and hydrates) can fuel ALL our transportation 40% cheaper than gasoline. And do it FOREVER.

Rising Tides in Alternative Energy Storage

John,

Is there an ETF that includes this sector?