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Paul Mosgovoy  

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  • Belly Up: Why Walter Energy Will Be The Next Coal Industry Casualty [View article]
    Over the past two weeks or so, we continue to see the DJUSCL and the KOL reaching new lows (although less so the KOL).

    The point to watch from a technical perspective is which stocks are NOT following the continued wipe-out.

    To put it differently, we are now seeing divergences (most going lower but some others actually beginning to move higher) here at what looks to be a bottom and possibly the bottom.

    The best divergence thus far (the one with the least participation in the continued down move) is WLB. Next in line is CLD (of the U.S. based producers).
    Jul 16, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Energy Overvalued Even At $2 - Better Choices For Speculating On Uranium Abound [View article]
    In a bull market, the leaders typically respond first.

    In the case of Uranium, that leader (or one of them) is CCJ.

    It is interesting to note that CCJ, UUUU, URZ are not responding in the same way as UEC. That represents a non-correlated move in UEC.

    Non-correlations are an indicator of a fractured market. Fractured markets are not healthy.

    The Uranium bull market was being touted years ago as a "sure thing" with the end of Megatons to Megawatts.

    Still waiting.

    Good work on the article.
    Jun 13, 2015. 11:58 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal started with Buy rating at BB&T [View news story]
    Technical chart indications on WLB may be found at this link:

    http://linkd.in/1NNiQpx

    The 30-level is critical for WLB. A breakout above this level while maintaining its upward momentum will be a significant positive on a go-forward basis.

    It does not hurt to get a "buy" recommendation out to the market to help nudge/push WLB above this important level.

    Next week's action will be interesting.
    Apr 19, 2015. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Westmoreland Coal Is A Unique Opportunity [View article]
    Good work on the article.

    Here is a link that addresses WLB from a strictly technical perspective.

    http://linkd.in/1NNiQpx

    If WLB makes it above (and holds) the 30-level, and does not break its established trend-line, it is currently rising at about 600% annualized (from the 3/17/15 low to current levels).

    That puts it at 50 buy mid-summer and at the top of a long term trading range (in the 75 area) by the fall this year.

    We will see. However, the charts themselves indicate that WLB is a different animal than the rest of its battered coal mining peers.

    I plan to modify the report in the link above with new charts that will include a more recent technical picture.

    If I may request, please review my LinkedIn profile and decide if you would like to be connected to my network. I would appreciate you being on-board.

    http://linkd.in/1AT6ZgD

    Regards,

    Paul
    Apr 16, 2015. 12:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uranium Energy Corp. Could Very Well Have Nuclear Growth In 2015: Fundamental And Algorithmic Analysis [View article]
    Excellent straight-forward comments as only an engineer could deliver.

    I am interested in establishing a LinkedIn connection with you.

    Please review my profile and decide if you would like to be on board.

    http://linkd.in/1AT6ZgD

    Best regards,

    Paul Mosgovoy
    Mar 24, 2015. 12:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy Earns Neutral Rating With The Coal Market Remaining Weak [View article]
    Technical analysis of BTU price action can be found at this link:

    http://linkd.in/1GIld5o

    The last 5-minutes of trading this past Friday included some very heavy volume (2.5 mil shares) to the up-side.

    Regards
    Mar 22, 2015. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Counter Trend Complete [View instapost]
    Thank you Chris,

    As I write this, TZA is now at 15.00. I may have missed the counter trend move by one day as it appears that today may be the completion or it may be the start of another up-trend.

    We will have to see how the day ends.

    Just as a reminder, I am not publishing regular updates on Seeking Alpa (as of last Friday).

    My market posts are now on LinkedIn and will be much less frequent.

    If you would like to connect, please send me a request at:

    http://linkd.in/1AT6ZgD

    Thank you for your comments.

    Regards,

    Paul
    Aug 18, 2014. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Testing A 5-Year Trend-Line [View instapost]
    I am pleased that my updates are helpful. Thank you.

    My position with IWM is on a longer time-frame (weekly and monthly). On those time-frames, there is no exit signal (according to my method). Therefore, the position in TZA is being maintained.

    It is a little frustrating to see the trade oscillate. However, there may be the possibility of a big (unexpected) down move. I want to be sure to be in position if that takes place.

    The SPY might have a short bounce to test the underside of its recent break. If so, the move might be brief.

    My own experience is that I have found the SPY to be very frustrating to trade. It is probably the most heavily computer controlled (traded) index and therefore, I tend to stay away.

    Obviously, others may be better at the SPY than I am.... :-)

    Thanks again,

    Paul
    Aug 12, 2014. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell 2000: Next Leg May Be Underway [View instapost]
    Thanks for the question Lulzasaur,

    I will be posting an update before the end of the day.

    The short answer is no but it has started to get complex which is one of the reasons that I tend to stay away for relying on Elliott Wave.

    I will provide my view of the count as well as a chart that shows that we are in a trend-line test.

    Thanks,

    Paul
    Aug 11, 2014. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell 2000: Due For A Bounce? [View instapost]
    Thank you for the comments.

    To start off, I should say that anything can happen in the markets. The IWM may indeed stabilize and move higher. If it was to do that, it would most likely give clues to us before that move began in earnest.

    At the present time however, the trend is still down. A penetration to the up-side of today's high at 112.23 would call the down-trend into question. We will see how it goes.

    At the same time and for reasons that I do not want to reveal while still on Seeking Alpha, I have decided to move to a different venue (LinkedIn) effective 8/15/14.

    You are welcome to request a connection with me via LinkedIn. My URL for that site is here:

    http://linkd.in/1AT6ZgD

    I would welcome (and accept) your request.

    Thank you again for your comment and interest.

    Best regards,

    Paul Mosgovoy
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Blow-Off Top Is Here [View article]
    I appreciate the question/comment.

    Time-frame is different for everyone. In the case of the Russell 2000, if it continues to hold at this level or lower, then it will post a monthly reversal bar and potentially an out-side-down monthly.

    I have included a link below that shows the result of the last two outside-down monthly reversals.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    My own preference is to not be exposed to such events (or be positioned short).

    We still have a few more trading days to go for this month. What appears to be at least possible at this point is a monthly reversal. We will have to see if by next Thursday we are out-side-down.

    Please stay in touch.

    Thank you,

    Paul
    Jul 25, 2014. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Blow-Off Top Is Here [View article]
    Albertasunwapta,

    Excellent link to a potentially sleeper article that contains this gem:

    "Unfortunately, none of the valuation ratios help us determine the path the market will take in producing these anemic returns"

    Then again, they direct the public to more "fundamentals" to further confuse the situation.

    If I might add another link to another post that shows the identification of a (and maybe the) reversal in the Russell 2000.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Of special note in the link above is the complete lack of "fundamentals" that helped to identify the trend change.

    Best regards,

    Paul
    Jul 25, 2014. 01:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Blow-Off Top Is Here [View article]
    Good article on the growing disconnect that will most likely end badly (and maybe already is for some sectors).

    While the major indices continue higher, the Russell 2000 has already reached its high (maybe THE high) and has rolled over. This is called "thinning out" (an observation that may have been first noted by Jesse Livermore), where there is a mirage of advancement while the structure underneath erodes.

    It would make sense that the small caps would be hurt the most in the next down-move.

    That move may already be underway.
    Jul 25, 2014. 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell 2000: Potential To Accelerate Lower [View instapost]
    Let's see if it gets to 104.

    Paul
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold plunges 2.2% in biggest daily drop of 2014, miners sink [View news story]
    Vooter,

    If an employee is part of a hedge desk operation at one of the various gold-miners, they have access to 100-oz. of gold (if they need it) to offer up if the futures contract goes to settlement and delivery.

    If they are part of an investment house/trading firm that is selling futures, they most likely do not have the physical product to deliver and will close out the trade (or roll-over) prior to settlement.

    Paul
    Jul 15, 2014. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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