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Paul Mosgovoy

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  • Market Summary: DUST, GDX, GLD [View instapost]
    No problem....... will use DUST.

    I read this technique long ago and not sure I remember the text. I think that it was one of Dr. Elder's books (Trading for a Living...).

    Basically, if you can look at a chart right-side up and then up-side down and still be bullish (in his example), then you have a bias problem.

    So, I use it on myself to make sure that if I am bullish and I turn the chart up-side down, then I should be bearish.

    Thank you for the note,

    Paul
    Apr 15 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Summary: DUST, GDX [View instapost]
    Volume has been declining as GDX rallied up into resistance.

    Volume is not always a perfect indicator. However, it did show that traders were backing away as price went higher.

    Today was a down day and volume increased.

    Probability points to lower prices ahead.....and how low is the unknown.

    It seems that the market will always push the extreme. So, where is the extreme on the down-side?........ at $15-GDX? We will see.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 10 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Summary: DUST, GDX [View instapost]
    Agreed,

    If the charts indicate that down is more probable than up at the moment, then they should be used to position accordingly. There is no telling how far a down-move or an up-move will go.

    Years ago, I remember that I was long on the 30-year bond (1998...if I remember) and it had an adverse move....I decided to hold on. Well, it went down (rates up) much farther and lasted much longer than what I expected......don't know if it ever got back to my entry point....... enough of that.

    As Richard D. Wyckoff said nearly one-hundred years ago: "I trade to invest."

    He meant that profits on short to mid term moves gave him the cash to invest in real assets......things that are not made of paper.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 9 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Summary: CCJ, GDP, GOLD [View instapost]
    Thanks for the link.

    Randgold is an excellent company. I especially like the fact that they did not follow the crowd (when gold/oz prices were advancing) and kept their viability estimates using $1,000/oz. gold.

    Thinking as I am writing this.....they may be planning/expecting that gold price may again be at $1,000/oz even if just temporarily.

    That would fit the forecast from Casey Research...... they are essentially in agreement with the forecast that Prechter (http://bit.ly/HcZ42y) put out a few years back ....that it would eventually get to $800 before going back up.

    Forecasts don't help day-to-day and some never come to pass.

    However, Randgold management really seems to be a cut above the rest and they have not raised the $1,000/oz basis for project estimates......just seems like they might know something.

    Also, if there is a spike lower, Randgold will probably be the only one in position to make an asset purchase.... and dirt cheap... (pardon the pun). That type of asset purchase at distressed prices would fit their leadership style.

    I might hazard a guess that they already have a shopping list and are just waiting....

    Thanks for the comment..... I appreciate the help.

    Paul
    Mar 28 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Summary: CCJ, GDP, GOLD [View instapost]
    The huge 16.1-mil share volume on 2/20/14 signifies a changing of hands......

    This assessment of price action holds water (thus far) as GDP immediately began to move up to test resistance.

    Over the past three days there was an attempt to drive lower that has failed...... these are subtle indications but sometimes a significant move begins without fanfare.

    There is also 30% held short....... If I was short GDP and paying attention, after today I would start to cover as unobtrusively as possible.

    Thanks for the comment,

    Paul
    Mar 26 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exeter Resource Corp.: Potential For A Big Move [View article]
    Thanks for the update.

    The initial "Big Move" report on Exeter hinged on the fact that if they made a discovery at La Buena, it would immediately change the value of the company....literally overnight.

    That discovery did not happen....... and Exeter has disbanded their Mexican operations. Not necessarily a bad thing as they can now focus on Caspiche.

    However, they now have some legal trouble:

    Link is here:

    http://prn.to/1h3RV6D

    So, it starts to get a bit messy...... and I have hesitated to get back in on a long position.

    I am not saying that XRA will not be a profitable position...... only saying that it is not a clean as it was back in October 2013.

    Thanks again,

    Paul
    Mar 24 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Update: AEM [View instapost]
    Still long AEM.

    Was wanting to have the initial stop hold, but I still had available risk (capital) to handle a larger down move.

    Obviously not the best entry.

    However, If you look at a daily chart of AEM, there are five days over the past two months where the low was in the 31.70 area.

    Other traders' and investor's stops have been building up over the past two months in this area. Those were taken out with today's move. This gives the professionals an opportunity to take positions or increase positions on the cheap......it has nothing to do with interest rates as was the "excuse" headline of today.

    Obviously my assessment is that AEM, along with the entire sector is in an up-trend so the probabilities are weighted to the up-side and that AEM is not in a protracted down-move.

    We will know that today was a head-fake if tomorrow pre-market, and open are gap-higher with a push higher.

    Price action went about as far as it can for this to be a bump-and-run type move.

    Hope this answers your question....... if not please contact me again..... I want to make sure that those following me are getting the information they need.

    Thanks,

    Paul
    Mar 24 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As Randgold Considers A Sale Of Its Massawa Assets, Here's Why I'm Staying Long [View article]
    Good detail on Randgold's solid performance.

    When someone gives you an unsolicited bid, you know that what you have is of value.

    An entry point of 84-and-change may not be as low risk as an entry at a higher level as counter intuitive as that may seem.

    GOLD will be running into resistance in the 86 - 87 area. How it behaves at that level may be helpful to determine a low-risk entry point.
    Mar 6 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals miners benefit as gold surges [View news story]
    Good call on that one.... and so quick.
    Mar 3 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals miners benefit as gold surges [View news story]
    ABX, along with AUY, KGC, NEM et al. are in poor technical condition.
    Mar 3 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals miners benefit as gold surges [View news story]
    Randgold's pivot on 1/9/14, and subsequent dynamic reversal (which was fully analyzed by our trading entity) over the past two months was well in place before the past week's headlines.
    Mar 3 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    Do you happen to know which stocks were purchased?

    Also, why not position yourself right along with them. You might find this link useful.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regards
    Feb 26 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold: The Gold Miner To Watch In 2014 [View article]
    A good research note on the fundamentals. Low debt, conservative ($1,000/oz) strategy.

    The chart of GOLD is the absolute best of all the seniors and it has essentially gone straight up since the pivot low of January 9th.

    I would suggest that not only is Randgold the miner to watch in 2014, it is the only miner to watch in 2014 as the rest attempt to recover.

    Randgold never got itself into a position where it would have to "recover".
    Feb 19 07:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Gold Miners Have Topped Out [View article]
    Wow, 82 comments and counting.

    We are up 90-times risk on Randgold and only have 5 comments......... maybe I need to learn something here. :-)
    Feb 17 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Randgold Moving As Expected [View instapost]
    Thanks, I appreciate you getting back to me.

    A 17% profit is a good gain.

    From what I can see, Randgold may be heading much higher. It is currently at resistance in the 80 area, but its action from the low has been essentially straight-up. I don’t recall when I have seen that type of action.

    There have been 16 gap-higher opens in GOLD since the January 10th pivot. Six of those gap-higher opens were in-a-row…….incredible. This indicates substantial strength.

    I am now looking for another entry indication to increase the line. Not sure if that is going to happen at the 80-level…….. it might, if we are lucky.

    Thanks again
    Feb 15 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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