Seeking Alpha

Paul Mosgovoy  

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  • Ignore Downgrades And Still Buy Yamana [View article]
    That is correct. Even then, it does not tell the whole story. For example, Majestic Silver (AG) is still profitable and a well run operation but when you compare the most recent price action of AG with GOLD, (say....the past six months), you can see that AG has a heaviness about it.....during the same time-frame, GOLD rises sharply and falls less on the down-swings.

    From a technical standpoint, this tells you to go with the one that has the sharpest upward action. In this case that is GOLD.

    From what I can see, unless you get down into the juniors, there is no other miner that is acting like GOLD.....the chart is literally telling you that they are the one.... they are the one that is going to rise the most, the fastest, and go the farthest, if/when the sector recovers.

    Now, the early masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb did not ask "why"....the 'why' always came out later, after the fact.

    Our job as investors/traders is to recognize the "what" not the why. What is the price action doing? In the case of GOLD, the price action is leading the pack.
    Feb 8, 2014. 02:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Downgrades And Still Buy Yamana [View article]
    Sorry, substitute "Argentina" for "Columbia" error.
    Feb 6, 2014. 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Downgrades And Still Buy Yamana [View article]
    Yes…..that is true.

    I will take this as a hint to the fact that Yamana operates in a “safe” location such as South America (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico) and that Randgold is in the “dangerous” location of Sub-Sahara Africa.

    In fact, we already know that it is dangerous because there has been armed conflict in the area.

    It does not change the fact that from a technical and management standpoint, Randgold is a superior performed to Yamana…….the chart itself proves that.

    Since our company (Three Ten Trading) is implementing the techniques (and profiting from) the early masters: Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb, they have in-effect been there, done that.

    Let’s see: Panic of 1907, World War I, the 1929 crash, the depression, World War II and so on. Sounds pretty dangerous. Taking a cue from them (Loeb specifically), we are to forget about “diversification”, identify the top performer (in this case Randgold) and then watch the basket very closely.

    The coup that took place in Mali during 2012 was forecast well in advance by Randgold’s chart. Depending on how one looks at it, if you were invested in Randgold, you had at least nine months to see that something was wrong…………that should have been enough time for anyone to exit their position.

    If that were not enough, there was a weekly reversal bar posted just prior to the news that a coup had taken place…….not sure what one would be waiting to see to prove that an exit was necessary (at lest temporarily), but there was one signal after another.

    As with any winner in life, if someone is not shooting at you, then you are not the leader.
    Feb 6, 2014. 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Downgrades And Still Buy Yamana [View article]
    When the tide goes out (when the gold price goes down), it reveals who is doing a good job running the business. Those are the miners that still have a P/E ratio.

    The only senior miners that still have a P/E are GOLD and AUY.

    Of those two, GOLD is the leader and AUY is the laggard.
    Feb 6, 2014. 12:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Downgrades And Still Buy Yamana [View article]
    While the article is well written, with a good level of fundamental research, the fact remains that AUY is a laggard on a technical basis.

    A rising gold price (which may be in the offing) will affect all gold stocks to some extent.

    However, the two-plus year wipe out (in gold) has served to identify the leaders on the next upswing. There are some possibilities in the junior sector, but there is really only one leader in the senior sector: Randgold (GOLD).
    Feb 5, 2014. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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